Risk Assessment and Management

http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2007/071113ASE.ppt
Prediction of the coastal marine
pollution in the Asian waters
•Hiroyuki MATSUDA
Yokohama National University
Professor of Environmental Risk Mangmt
Program Leader “Global COE: Eco-Risk
Management from Asian Viewpoints”
The 1st Japanese Pew Marine Conservation Fellow
WWF Japan: advisory committee for nature consv.
Standing Committee of Ecol Soc Japan
2007/9/28
1
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2007/071113ASE.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
2006/5/22
2
Classification of environmental risks
Human Health Risk
（After Junko Nakanishi）
10-1
Individual risk
Characteristics
of the past
pollution
incidences and
the recent
environmental
problems.
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10-6
Ecological risk!
103
104
105 106
107
108
Number of people affected (or environment)
The per capute risk in the past was high, but the number of people affected was limited.
The present per capita risk, with the newly-emerged environmental issues, is realtively
small, while the number of people affected is big.
-The present risk is more ubiquitous, and is … unclear in nature.
3
Junko Nakanishi
What are Asian environmental risks?
Population increase and
economy development
ecology
Degradation of ecosystems
and ecosystem services
Innovation of biomass and
artificial chemicals
chemistry
Deforestration and
aquatic pollution
Sustainable development with precautionary principle
Risk trade-off, Risk-benefit, ecosystem, socioeconomy
Global COE (Center of Excellence) by Yokohama National University
and National Institute for Environmental Studies
“Global Eco-Risk Management from Asian Viewpoints
4
Global Changes
Human well-being
Ecosystem services
Japanese edition:
Translated by COE-YNU
Biodiversity
Why do we conserve the
nature?
Ecosystem
functions
(MA2004)
5
Because of intergenerational sustainability
=Our descendant can
enjoy ecosystem
services (Christensen
et al. 1996)
Ecosystem services and well-being
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2004)
2006/5/22
6
3 types of ecosystem services
•
•
•
•
05/8/4
Goods agricultures 140trilion yen/yr
Regulating services 1700 trillion yen/yr
Cultural services
Value of fishing ground >>
fisheries yield
7
Approach of “Eco-Risk Asia”
(Building a Society based on Safety and Trust)
Real time
Basic studies
Case studies
Social institution
Fisheries operating model
Stock recovery of mackerel
TAC* law system
Ecosystem management model
Shiretoko World Heritage
Marine Protected Areas
Adaptive popul. management
Deer management
Law of wildlife
Ecological risk of chemicals
Field study of benthos
Management of chemicals
EIA for Aichi EXPO 2005
Revision of Red Data Book
Eradication of mongoose
Law of Exotic Species
GMO risk management
Law of Biosafety
Extinction risk assessment
Risk of genetic contamination
・
・
*TAC=Total Allowable
Catch
・
・
・
・
・
・
・
8
Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield
Theory (Matsuda & Abrams 2007 Am. Fish. Soc.)
• Ecosystems are uncertain, nonequilibrium and complex.
• We recommend
adaptive mangmt.
– AM must be carefully
used for ecosystem
mangmt
12/6/06
surplus production
– MSY theory ignores all the three.
9
Stock abundance
Some resultant biological communities at
MSY (Matsuda & Abrams 2006)
Solution maximizing total yield from community
MSY solution usually reduces species and links;
5
5
4
1
12/6/06
5
4 5 6
4
4
3
2
6
5
4
3
(e)
6
6
6
(d)
(c)
(b)
(a)
3
3
1
2
1
3
2
1
2
1
2
10
Feedback control in fishing effort
is powerful...
dE U N  N *


dt
dN  f ( N )  qEN
dt
4 May 2004
N* N*N*
f(N)
A straw man says;
• Even though the MSY
level is unknown, the
feedback control
stabilizes a broad
range of target stock
level.
Stock size N
11
P
If prey is exploited and fishing effort is
feedback control, ...(Matsuda & Abrams in prep.)
dP/dt=0
dN/dt=0
dN  r 1 N  N  fCN P  qCEN

dt
K  1 hCN



dP  d  gP  bfCN  P
1 hCN 
dt 
no adaptation (C is
constant)
dE/dt = U(N-N*)
predator P fishery E
N
sardine N
12/6/06
12
Fishing effort must be controlled by the
predator density P
• dE/dt = U(P – Target predator density)
• E = E(N, P), E/N > 0, E/P > 0
e.g. E = Etarget (1 + a log NP/NtargetPtarget)
• In this case, feedback control guarantees
persistence of the target stock and its predators.
• Adaptive multi-species management is
sometimes needed.
12/6/06
We must make theory and case studies on
ecosystem adaptive management
13
Problems in the current global standard
★Inconsistent relationship between development and
conservation (e.g. CITES vs FAO)
★Conservation based on top-down regulation
★Strict regulation in order to discourage developing
countries
★Controversy between “Europe” and “USA”
“Europe”
“USA”
• Precautionary principle • Adaptive management
• Initiative based on UN • Independent of UN
– Kyoto Protocol
14
Three Asian Viewpoints in
“Eco-Risk Asia”
• Adaptive ex post facto verification is needed for
precautionary principle.
• Perspective of developing countries in Asia that
the use of ecosystem services inevitably entails
eco-risk.
• Natural resource management will likely
involve voluntary agreements (co-management).
YNU COE program
Resource Management and Risk Assessment in
Tropical Peat-Swamp Forest, Thailand
Mizuki TOMITA and Kunio SUZUKI
Thailand
Primary tropical swamp forests (protected)
Wetland of Melaleuca (protected)
Secondary flora (land use)
Study site
Bangkok
Narathiwat
16/13
Narathiwat Province
YNU COE program
Risk assessment for sustainable use of
Melaleuca cajuputi.
Risk depends on # selective logging
selective logging
risk
Extinction
消失確率 (%)
1.0
transitional zone
peat swamp
beach ridge
0.8
0.6
伐採：
0幹
0 logging
伐採：
6幹
6 logging
12 logging
伐採：12幹
18 logging
伐採：18幹
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
年数
Year after
the present
If the utilization continued, the population goes to extinct
over 50 percent probability after 18 years
YNU COE program
A Preliminary Study to Comparative Natural
Resources Policy: The Concept of Biodiversity and Its
Significance in Biodiversity Strategies
Hiroki OIKAWA, Mineo KATO and Tadayoshi SHIGEOKA
Global standard
indirect utility
conservation
Public involvement
endemic and endangered species
genetic information
Local standard
direct- and indirect utility
sustainable use
Stakeholder involvement
useful native species
morphological information
integrity
ecosystem services
Nation
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippin
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Year HP
2003 ○
1997 ×
1997 ×
1992 ×
2002 ×
1995 ○
• As Indonesian BDS suggests, BDSs prepared by
developing countries are likely to put more
emphasis on direct use value of biodiversity than
its non-direct and non-use values.
YNU COE program
Dioxins in Tokyo Bay: Its Environmental Behavior
and Ecological Risk Assessment to Birds
Shigeki MASUNAGA, Junko NAKANISHI & Yutaka KAMEDA
大気
河川流域の推定残存量：
24,000 g-TEQ
河川からの流入負荷：
17 g-TEQ/year
（負荷量の73%）
大気からの沈着負荷：
6.3 g-TEQ/year（負荷量の27%）
東京湾海水
海水中の存在量：1.0 g-TEQ
東京湾底質
底質中の推定存在量：2,200 g-TEQ
湾奥
底質への堆積：
26 g-TEQ/year
（海水から除去の99%）
湾外への流出：
0.32 g-TEQ/year
（湾内海水から
の除去の1%）
湾口
Input and output estimation of
dioxins in Tokyo Bay (2002-2003）
Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of the estimated annual
average concentrations of dissolved (left) and
suspended (right) dioxins in the surface water of
Tokyo Bay (fg-TEQ/L) (N. Kobayashi, et al., (2006)
Application of a 3-D Chemical Fate Prediction
Model (FATE3D) to Predict Dioxin Concentrations
in the Tokyo Bay, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf
Science 70, 621-632.)
19/13
YNU COE program
Bio-accumulation depends on dioxin
congeners (Masunaga et al.)
• Top predators
carry accumulated
co-PCBs.
• The present
source of dioxins
in Tokyo Bay is
mainly PCP and
CNP in 1950-60s.
d16N
表１ダイオキシン類曝露によるカワウの生態リスク
評価結果
YNU COE program
a) J. P. Ludwig et al. (1996)によった。
Cummulative probability
Extinction risk of Great cormorant
(Phalacrocorax carbo)
横
に軸
な
るの
個
累体
積数
確割
率合
（
％以
）下
100
80
Dioxins
free
ダイオキシン類
の曝露あり
Risk
Control
Exposed
Ratio
Individual level
egg mortality risk
0.086 a
0.19 b
649 d
954 f
2.2 b
0.65
0.95
Hazard quotient
60
Dioxins
exposure
ダイオキシン類
の曝露なし
40
20
NOEL=1,000 c
Population level
Pop. Growth Rate
0.360
0.324
0.90
>20% decrease
0.16
0.32
2.0
>50% decrease
0.0017
0.0063
3.7
0
40
60
80
100
120
140 160
１０年目の個体数／初期個体数（％）
0
[ N10
10／N0 （%) ]
N /N %
 N 0 (t  1)   p0 m1

 
 N1 (t  1)   p 0
 N (t  1)    0
 2
 


  
 N (t  1)   0
 A1
 
p1 m2  p A 2 m A1
0

0
p1

0

0



p A 2
p A1 m A  N 0 (t ) 


0  N1 (t ) 
0  N 2 (t ) 


   
0  N A1 (t ) 
Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy
Metals (Zinc) to Freshwater Benthic
Macroinvertebrate Assemblages
Based on Field Survey in the Hasama River Basin, Miyagi, Japan.
Iwasaki (YNU), Kagaya (U.Tokyo),
Miyamoto(AIST), Matsuda(YNU)
2006/5/22
22
Iwasaki et al. unpublished
Zinc concentration near abandoned mine
調査地点
447 μg/L377
Nihasama Riv
Hosokura mine
source of metals
136
152
Namari Riv.
St.2
St.1
126
St.3
Standard Zn
= 30mg/L
Polluted
流下方向
St.4
Hasama Riv.
St.5
6
64
6
Unpolluted
St.8
5
St.6
Twice higher
0
1000
2000
3000 4000
5000m
St.9
St.7
23
Stop heavy pollution at the early stage!
Do not discourage good companies!
• Major risk source of the present dioxins is
pesticides in agriculture during 1950-60s –
congener analysis by Masunaga et al.
• Zinc is strictly regulated (0.03mg/L)
– Zn in many stn is larger than 0.03mg/L
– Benthic fauna is not lost in Stn with 0.06mg/L Zn
(Iwasaki et al. unpublished)
– Zn criterion by population level risk is 0.1mg/L
– Stn near the abandoned mine is very high Zn. (by
2006/5/22 Kamo & Naito in press, AIST/CRM)
24
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2007/071113ASE.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
2006/5/22
25
International movement for sea lions
conservation
National
Geographic
August 2003
26
Population size
Kuril Population of Steller sea lions
ca 80% decline
Adults+juveniles (Perlov 1991)
27
# killed sea lions in Japan
# struck, damage (million yen)
Injuried
Missing into the sea
Culled
Cull + injuried + missing
Damage on fishing nets
2006/5/22
year
• Ohtaishi & Wada (eds, 1999), Hokkaido Pref.
28
Cumulative Extinction Probability
for Steller’s sea lions (N. Takahashi & Matsuda unpubl.)
Extinction risk
1
Nc=50
Nc=10
Nc=1
0 .8
0 .6
0 .4
0 .2
0
0
25
50
75
100
Year
Mean time to extinction T=66 yr.
29
Method from Lande & Orzack (1987 PNAS)
Steller’s sea lions should have
been listed in endangered (EN).
• Sea lions accumulate many sorts of
environmental chemicals but biological cause of
the decline is unclear.
• Magnitude of the decline is equivalent in effect
to a 30-60% reduction in juvenile survival or
70%-100% reduction in female fecundity.
• >50 sea lions have been still caught by pest
control in Japan every year.
• Due to criticism from abroad, cull limit of sea
30
lions is 106 individuals since 1995
Current sea lion problems
• When the Shiretoko became the World
Nature Heritage in 2005, IUCN did not
criticize cull of sea lions.
• Since 1995, cull limit was 106 per year.
• Sea lions is now gradually recovering
• Damage on fishers by sea lions is increasing
• No. of bycatch is still unreported.
2006/5/22
31
Recently, the western Pacific Steller’s sea
lions are recovering （Burkanov and Loughlin 2005）
2006/5/22
32
http://www.jfa.maff.go.jp/release/19/081001.pdf
Potential Biological Removal
(PBR) for sea lions
•
•
•
•
PBR = 0.5 Nmin Rmax Fr
PBR = 0.5 x 5063 x 0.12 x 0.75 = 227
# By-catches is unknown!
We estimated 107 by-catches (probably
overestimation)
• #Annual cull limit is (106 to) 120 sea lions.
• We encourage a transparent by-catch report.
2006/5/22
http://www.jfa.maff.go.jp/release/19/081001.pdf
33
Traditional fisheries are also
endangered
• Can whaling be managed to protect
whales and whalers? – Plenary talk by
Judy Zeh at International Mammalogical
Congress at Sapporo, 2005
• Commercial fishery exists in the Shiretoko
World Nature Heritage
• Conserve diversity of flora, fauna,
language and culture!!
2006/5/22
34
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2007/071113ASE.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
2006/5/22
35
Expected Loss of Longevity
• If cancer probability = 10-5 and 10 years
life expectancy are lost, then
• Expected loss of longevity = 0.7 hours!!
• We can compare ELL between various
sorts of risk factors.
2006/5/22
36
Quantifying Health Benefits from Eating Fish
M. Daviglus Society for Risk Analysis 1999 Annual Meeting
http://www.riskworld.com/Abstract/1999/SRAam99/ab9ab073.htm
• Benefit = fish includes unsaturated fatty acids
and decreases heart diseases.
• Men aged 40 to 55 years, who consumed 35
g or more of fish daily had 38% and 44%
lower risk of death from coronary heart
disease and myocardial infarction,
respectively.
This benefit is much higher than the health risk from dioxin.
2006/5/22
37
Weekly intake of each fish
Weekly intake of concentration of Mercury intake
each fish (g)
methyl mercury from each fish
(ppm)
(μg/week)
Intake from non-seafoods
sharks
sea bream
bluefin tunas
80
whales
5
shellfish
20
anchovy
160
mackerel
160
total
425
0.35
0.33
0.54
0.12
0.49
0.03
0.21
total(μg/day)
11.9
0.0
0.0
43.4
0.6
9.7
5.3
33.4
104.3
14.9
(Souce: Japan Ministry of Health 2005, Nakanishi et al. 2003)
2006/5/22
38
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2005/aquanet.htm
Risk of mercury
Mercury
intake
(mg/day)
your case
Threshold for adults
Threshold for embryos
Average intake of
Japanese
Average in 1960s
Minamata disease in
1960s
Tuna eater (250g/day)
% in Red Risk for
blood cell adults
(ppm)
Risk for
embryos
14.9
25.0
15.7
0.024 1.4E-06 7.8E-05
0.038 1.1E-05 0.0005
0.025 1.7E-06 9.5E-05
8.4
0.015 1.3E-07 7.6E-06
98.0
0.140 0.0013 0.0236
1250.0
1.753 0.2771 0.6709
137.2
0.195 0.0036
0.048
(Source: Japan Ministry of Health 2005, Nakanishi et al. 2003)
2006/5/22
39
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2005/aquanet.htm
My typical lunch menu
(for 2 persons)
650 yen (US$6) with coffee
2006/5/22
21
40
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2007/071113ASE.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
2006/5/22
41
Rodricks “Calculating Risks”
Fallacy of Zero-Risk
リスク要因
死亡率
2000 Rodeoロデオ
3
All factors全死亡要因
1000 Fire火事
2.8
Smoking喫煙
300 Trihalomethan etc
0.8
Cancer from smoking
120 Peanut butter 3spoons/day
0.8
Fire fighting消火活動
80 Beef steak 85g/day
0.5
Hung glider
80 Flood洪水
0.06
Coal mining炭鉱
63 Struck by lightening落雷
0.05
Farmwork農作業
36 Falling stars流星直撃 <10-5
Automobile自動車
24
The number of died person per 100,000 per year
Risk factors
Motorcyclingバイク
Mortality
Qi’s anxiety
(Qi-you杞憂
)
生涯リスクは上記の数字が（松田注:年齢，年代により）大きく変わらないとすれば約70倍したものとなる．
2006/5/22
22
42
Risk of human lives by climate
change
2006/5/22
Parry et al., (2001)
43
Effect on ecosystems by climate chage
Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial
2006/5/22Hare, W. L. (2003). Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change –
Contribution to the Specification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC.
http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf.
44
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2007/071113ASE.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
2006/5/22
45
Guideline for nature
restoration projects.
Coral reefs between
Ishigaki & Iriomote
 Committee on Ecosystem Management of
The Ecological Society of Japan* (2005)
Japanese Journal of Conservation Ecology
10: 63-75 with English abstract
 *Hiroyuki MATSUDA, Tetsukazu YAHARA, Yasuhiro
TAKEMON, Yoshio HADA, Mariko HASEGAWA, Kazumasa
HIDAKA, Stefan HOTES, Yasuro KADONO, Mahito KAMADA,
Fusayuki KANDA, Makoto KATO, Hidenobu KUNII, Hiroshi
MUKAI, Okimasa MURAKAMI, Nobukazu NAKAGOSHI,
Futoshi NAKAMURA, Kaneyuki NAKANE, Miho Ajima
NISHIHIRO, Jun NISHIHIRO, Toshiyuki SATO, Masakazu
SHIMADA, Hinako SHIOSAKA, Noriko TAKAMURA, Noriko
TAMURA, Kenichi TATSUKAWA, Yoshitaka TSUBAKI, Satoshi
46
TSUDA, Izumi WASHITANI
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2005/EMCreport05e.html
Flow diagram for ecological risk management
Consensus
building
public
scientists
0. Concerns, issues
Scientific
procedure
1. Screening
2.Delimit management scope, invite
stakeholder
3.Organize local council and scientific
committee
Reset goals
when not agreed
8. Check necessity and
purpose of management
4.Characterize “undesired events”
5. Enumerate measures of effects
6. Analyze stress factors by modelling
7. Risk assessment for no-action case
Reset goals when infeasible
9. Set preliminary numerical goal
10. Choose monitoring measures
11. Select method of control
13. Decide measures & goals
Revision required
12. Check feasibility of goals
14. Initiate management
15. Continue management and
monitoring
16. Review numerical
goals and purposes
2006/5/22
Finish program
47
Why to conserve biodiversity?
• To enjoy human well-being based on
ecosystem services based on biodiversity
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)
• Good indicator for sustainable historical
relationship between human and nature
– Same as to conserve historical monuments
(Hirakawa & Higuchi 1997)
2006/5/22
48
Conserve biodiversity and monuments
（Hirakawa & Higuchi 1997; Yahara & Washitani 1996）
• Rich biodiversity = an evidence of
sustainable relationship between our
ancestors and nature
• Sustainability is a global standard.
• Loss of biodiversity = an indicator of
unsustainable impact on the nature
• Our generation’s mission = to leave
native biodiversity to the next generation
as much as possible.
• Similar to conserve historical monuments
平川浩文・樋口広芳(1997)生物多様性の保全をどう理解するか科学67:725-731
鷲谷いづみ・矢原徹一(1996)『保全生態学入門』文一総合出版、270頁
2006/5/22
49
http://www.imj.co.jp/simasha/000/migi07/p19.pdf
MPAs to protect Walleye Pollack
Since 1995
Spawning
ground
Since
2005
Bottom trawlings are totally banned at the coastal area
50
Made by Mitsutaku Makino
Coastal Foodweb at Shiretoko World
Natural Heritage
Most of keystone species are caught
and recorded by local fishers org.s!
Sustainable fisheries play roles of
umbrella species like top predators!
51
Made by Mitsutaku Makino
Fisheries production statistics (tons) at
Shiretoko WNH
Very informative time-series data for
monitoring the changes in ecosystem
structure/functions
52
Made by Mitsutaku Makino
Thank you!
Plant Red Data Book
We like to try real time case
studies under collaboration
with government side.
Pelagic fish management
EXPO2005 at Aichi,
Revision of RDB
Mainichi Shimbun
Release of Chamicals
Shiretoko World Heritage
FSNRI
Deer management
N. Ishii
2006/5/22
2004/1/29
Windfirm birdstrikes
Mongoose eradication
program at Amami Island
H.M. at Shiretoko
53

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