Risk Assessment and Management

http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2009/091117EL.ppt
Ecological Risk Management,
its theory and practice
•Hiroyuki MATSUDA
Yokohama National University
Professor of Environmental Risk Management
Program Leader “Global COE: Eco-Risk
Management from Asian Viewpoints”
The 1st Japanese Pew Marine Conservation Fellow
WWF Japan: advisory committee for nature consv.
Standing Committee of Ecol Soc Japan
1
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2009/091117EL.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
Matsuda H (2008) Prediction of coastal marine pollution in the Asian waters. In
"Conservation on the Coastal Environment", (eds Miyazaki N, Wattayakorn G),
Shinju-sha, Tokyo pp. 120-132
2
Classification of environmental risks
Human Health Risk
（After Junko Nakanishi）
10-1
Individual risk
Characteristics
of the past
pollution
incidences and
the recent
environmental
problems.
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10-6
Ecological risk!
103
104
105 106
107
108
Number of people affected (or environment)
The per capute risk in the past was high, but the number of people affected was limited.
The present per capita risk, with the newly-emerged environmental issues, is realtively
small, while the number of people affected is big.
-The present risk is more ubiquitous, and is … unclear in nature.
3
3
Junko Nakanishi
What are Asian environmental risks?
Population increase and
economy development
ecology
Degradation of ecosystems
and ecosystem services
Innovation of biomass and
artificial chemicals
chemistry
Deforestration and
aquatic pollution
Sustainable development with precautionary principle
Risk trade-off, Risk-benefit, ecosystem, socioeconomy
Global COE (Center of Excellence) by Yokohama National University
and National Institute for Environmental Studies
“Global Eco-Risk Management from Asian Viewpoints
4
Global Changes
Human well-being
Ecosystem services
Japanese edition:
Translated by COE-YNU
Biodiversity
Why do we conserve the
nature?
Because of intergenerational sustainability
for our descendant to
receive ecosystem
services as we do
Ecosystem
functions
(MA2004)
5
(Christensen et al. 1996)
5
Ecosystem services and well-being
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2004)
6
3 types of ecosystem services
•
•
•
•
05/8/4
Goods agricultures 140trilion yen/yr
Regulating services 1700 trillion yen/yr
Cultural services
Value of fishing ground >>
fisheries yield
7
Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield
Theory (Matsuda & Abrams 2007 Am. Fish. Soc.)
• Ecosystems are uncertain, nonequilibrium and complex.
• We recommend
adaptive mangmt.
– AM must be carefully
used for ecosystem
mangmt
12/6/06
surplus production
– MSY theory ignores all the three.
8
Stock abundance
“Maximum Sustainable Ecosystem
Services” = maximizing V
Maximum Sustainable Yield
= maximizing Y(C)
•
•
•
•
•
•
surplus production
Ecosystem services V(N, C)
V(N, C) = Y(C) + S(N)
N = K(1 – qE/r)
Stock abundance
C = qEN
Provisional Service (Fisheries Yield) … Y(C)
Utility of standing biomass… S(N)
C… catch; E… fishing effort; N… stock biomass
• K… Carrying capacity, r…Malthusian parameter, q… catchability
9
Paradigm Shift from MSY to MSES
Maximum Sustainable
Ecosystem Services
Total ecosystem services
= Fisheries Yield
+ Regulating Services
120
Maximum
Sustainable Yield
100
80
Unsustainable
Fisheries
60
40
No take zone
20
0
2008/3/2
0
20
40 Fishing
60 effort 80
100
120
10
10
Problems in the current global standard
★Inconsistent relationship between development and
conservation (e.g. CITES vs FAO)
★Conservation based on top-down regulation
★Strict regulation in order to discourage developing
countries
★Controversy between “Europe” and “USA”
“Europe”
“USA”
• Precautionary principle • Adaptive management
• Initiative based on UN • Independent of UN
– Kyoto Protocol
11
Three Asian Viewpoints in
“Eco-Risk Asia”
• Adaptive ex post facto verification is needed for
precautionary principle.
• Perspective of developing countries in Asia that
the use of ecosystem services inevitably entails
eco-risk.
• Natural resource management will likely
involve voluntary agreements (co-management).
12
YNU COE program
A Preliminary Study to Comparative Natural
Resources Policy: The Concept of Biodiversity and Its
Significance in Biodiversity Strategies
Hiroki OIKAWA, Mineo KATO and Tadayoshi SHIGEOKA
Global standard
indirect utility
conservation
Public involvement
endemic and endangered species
genetic information
Local standard
direct- and indirect utility
sustainable use
Stakeholder involvement
useful native species
morphological information
integrity
ecosystem services
Nation
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippin
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Year HP
2003 ○
1997 ×
1997 ×
1992 ×
2002 ×
1995 ○
• As Indonesian BDS suggests, BDSs prepared by
developing countries are likely to put more
emphasis on direct use value of biodiversity than
its non-direct and non-use values.
13
Biodiversity Asian Strategies by Eco-Risk COE
14
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2009/091117EL.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
Matsuda H (2008) Prediction of coastal marine pollution in the Asian waters. In
"Conservation on the Coastal Environment", (eds Miyazaki N, Wattayakorn G),
Shinju-sha, Tokyo pp. 120-132
15
益永茂樹氏
Source of dioxins in Tokyo Bay
P C D D & D Fs p g / g d r y s e d i m e n t
50, 000
PCDD&DFs pg/g dry sediment
40, 000
30, 000
20, 000
Observed
burn
燃焼
PC P
CNP 実
測濃度
observed
Agrochemicals
10, 000
0
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Y ear
Masunaga et al (2003) Chemosphere 53:315–324
16
Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy
Metals (Zinc) to Freshwater Benthic
Macroinvertebrate Assemblages
Based on Field Survey in the Hasama River Basin, Miyagi, Japan.
Iwasaki (YNU), Kagaya (U.Tokyo),
Miyamoto(AIST), Matsuda(YNU)
17
Iwasaki et al. unpublished
Zinc concentration near abandoned mine
調査地点
447 μg/L377
Nihasama Riv
Hosokura mine
source of metals
136
152
Namari Riv.
St.2
St.1
126
St.3
Standard Zn
= 30mg/L
Polluted
流下方向
St.4
Hasama Riv.
St.5
6
64
6
Unpolluted
St.8
5
St.6
Twice higher
0
1000
2000
3000 4000
5000m
St.9
St.7
18
Stop heavy pollution at the early stage!
Do not discourage good companies!
• Major risk source of the present dioxins is pesticides in agriculture during 1950-60s – congener
analysis by Masunaga et al. (2003 Chemosphere 53)
• Zinc is strictly regulated (0.03mg/L)
– Zn in many stn is larger than 0.03mg/L
– Benthic fauna is not lost in Stn with 0.06mg/L Zn
(Iwasaki et al. 2009 Env. Tox. Chem. 28)
– Zn criterion by population level risk is 0.1 mg/L
– Stn near the abandoned mine is very high Zn. (by
Kamo & Naito 2008 Human Ecol. Risk Assess. 14) 19
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2009/091117EL.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
Matsuda H (2008) Prediction of coastal marine pollution in the Asian waters. In
"Conservation on the Coastal Environment", (eds Miyazaki N, Wattayakorn G),
Shinju-sha, Tokyo pp. 120-132
20
Fishing down (MA 2005)
?
• Mean trophic level is obtained by
FAO FISHSTAT and FISHBASE
• It does not mean the degree of overfishing
• Japan has a high MTL (Ecological Footprint?)
21
By D.Pauly
Changes in the Marine Trophic Index
22 GBO2
Pauly D., Watson R. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B;2005;360:415-423
Catch and mean trophic level in
Japan
23
Difference in fish consumption
between countries
Low Value Food Fish as a Share of Total Fish
Consumption
Total Fish Consumption (Metric Tons)
140000
90
120000
80
70
100000
60
80000
Percent
Metric Tons Consumed
After Doug Beard
60000
Developing World
50
Developed World
40
30
40000
World
20
20000
10
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
0
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
From Delgado et. al. 2002, Fish to 2020, Table E.14
24
From Delgado et. al. 2002, Fish to 2020, Table 3.3
Rebuilding Global Fisheries (Worm et al. 2009)
Trends of biomass (B) &
exploitation rate (u) for
166 individual stocks.
Boris
Worm
Current exploitation rate
versus biomass for 166
individual stocks. 25
We can use >2 million tons of pelagic
fishes sustainably in Japanese EEZ.
• But demand-supply mismatch: overfishing and underuse.
26
Source: Fisheries Research Agency, Japan
Payments for Ecosystem Services
• Market Profiles by N. Carroll & M. Jenkins
• Carbon by K.Hamilton & S. Bushey
–
–
Compliant Carbon Forestry
Voluntary Carbon Forestry
• Water by T. Stanton
–
–
–
Compliant Water Quality Trading
Voluntary Watershed Management Payments
Government-Mediated Watershed PES
• Biodiversity
–
–
–
Compliant Biodiversity Offsets by N. Carroll
Voluntary Biodiversity Offsets by K Kate & P Maguire
Government-Mediated Biodiversity PES by R Miller et al.
– Individual Fisheries Quotas (ITQs and IFQs) by T. Agardy
• Bundled
–
Certified Agricultural Products by M. Andersson & T. Oberthur
• Appendix 1: Individual Fisheries Quotas
• Appendix 2: Certified Agricultural Products
27
Japan pay many prizes!
•
•
•
•
•
Kyoto Prize (1985-) by Inamori Foundation
Japan Prize (1985-) by JSPS
International Prize for Biology (1986-) by JSPS
Blue Planet Prize (1992-) by Asahi Glass Foundation
International Cosmos Prize (1993-)
by EXPO’90 Foundation
28
Traditional fisheries are also
endangered
• Can whaling be managed to protect
whales and whalers? – Plenary talk by
Judy Zeh at International Mammalogical
Congress at Sapporo, 2005
• Commercial fishery exists in the Shiretoko
World Nature Heritage
• Conserve diversity of flora, fauna,
language and culture!!
29
Expected Loss of Longevity
• If cancer probability = 10-5 and 10 years
life expectancy are lost, then
• Expected loss of longevity = 0.7 hours!!
• We can compare ELL between various
sorts of risk factors.
30
Quantifying Health Benefits from Eating Fish
M. Daviglus Society for Risk Analysis 1999 Annual Meeting
http://www.riskworld.com/Abstract/1999/SRAam99/ab9ab073.htm
• Benefit = fish includes unsaturated fatty acids
and decreases heart diseases.
• Men aged 40 to 55 years, who consumed 35
g or more of fish daily had 38% and 44%
lower risk of death from coronary heart
disease and myocardial infarction,
respectively.
This benefit is much higher than the health risk from dioxin.
31
Weekly intake of each fish
Weekly intake of concentration of Mercury intake
each fish (g)
methyl mercury from each fish
(ppm)
(μg/week)
Intake from non-seafoods
sharks
sea bream
bluefin tunas
80
whales
5
shellfish
20
anchovy
160
mackerel
160
total
425
0.35
0.33
0.54
0.12
0.49
0.03
0.21
total(μg/day)
11.9
0.0
0.0
43.4
0.6
9.7
5.3
33.4
104.3
14.9
(Souce: Japan Ministry of Health 2005, Nakanishi et al. 2003)
32
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2005/aquanet.htm
Risk of mercury
Mercury
intake
(mg/day)
your case
Threshold for adults
Threshold for embryos
Average intake of
Japanese
Average in 1960s
Minamata disease in
1960s
Tuna eater (250g/day)
% in Red Risk for
blood cell adults
(ppm)
Risk for
embryos
14.9
25.0
15.7
0.024 1.4E-06 7.8E-05
0.038 1.1E-05 0.0005
0.025 1.7E-06 9.5E-05
8.4
0.015 1.3E-07 7.6E-06
98.0
0.140 0.0013 0.0236
1250.0
1.753 0.2771 0.6709
137.2
0.195 0.0036
0.048
(Source: Japan Ministry of Health 2005, Nakanishi et al. 2003)
33
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2005/aquanet.htm
My typical lunch menu
(for 2 persons)
650 yen (US$6) with coffee
21
34
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2009/091117EL.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
Matsuda H (2008) Prediction of coastal marine pollution in the Asian waters. In
"Conservation on the Coastal Environment", (eds Miyazaki N, Wattayakorn G),
Shinju-sha, Tokyo pp. 120-132
35
Rodricks “Calculating Risks”
Fallacy of Zero-Risk
リスク要因
死亡率
2000 Rodeoロデオ
3
All factors全死亡要因
1000 Fire火事
2.8
Smoking喫煙
300 Trihalomethan etc
0.8
Cancer from smoking
120 Peanut butter 3spoons/day
0.8
Fire fighting消火活動
80 Beef steak 85g/day
0.5
Hung glider
80 Flood洪水
0.06
Coal mining炭鉱
63 Struck by lightening落雷
0.05
Farmwork農作業
36 Falling stars流星直撃 <10-5
Automobile自動車
24
The number of died person per 100,000 per year
Risk factors
Motorcyclingバイク
Mortality
Qi’s anxiety
(Qi-you杞憂
)
生涯リスクは上記の数字が（松田注:年齢，年代により）大きく変わらないとすれば約70倍したものとなる．
22
36
Effect on ecosystems by climate chage
Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial
Hare, W. L. (2003). Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change –
Contribution to the Specification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC.
http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf.
37
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2009/091117EL.ppt
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Development-conservation balance
Stop severe pollution at the early stage
Encourage environment-friendly companies
Precautionary adaptive management
Sustainable use and conservation by
voluntary management
Matsuda H (2008) Prediction of coastal marine pollution in the Asian waters. In
"Conservation on the Coastal Environment", (eds Miyazaki N, Wattayakorn G),
Shinju-sha, Tokyo pp. 120-132
38
Guideline for nature
restoration projects.
Coral reefs between
Ishigaki & Iriomote
 Committee on Ecosystem Management of
The Ecological Society of Japan* (2005)
Japanese Journal of Conservation Ecology
10: 63-75 with English abstract
 *Hiroyuki MATSUDA, Tetsukazu YAHARA, Yasuhiro
TAKEMON, Yoshio HADA, Mariko HASEGAWA, Kazumasa
HIDAKA, Stefan HOTES, Yasuro KADONO, Mahito KAMADA,
Fusayuki KANDA, Makoto KATO, Hidenobu KUNII, Hiroshi
MUKAI, Okimasa MURAKAMI, Nobukazu NAKAGOSHI,
Futoshi NAKAMURA, Kaneyuki NAKANE, Miho Ajima
NISHIHIRO, Jun NISHIHIRO, Toshiyuki SATO, Masakazu
SHIMADA, Hinako SHIOSAKA, Noriko TAKAMURA, Noriko
TAMURA, Kenichi TATSUKAWA, Yoshitaka TSUBAKI, Satoshi
39
TSUDA, Izumi WASHITANI
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2005/EMCreport05e.html
Flow diagram for ecological risk management
Consensus
building
public
scientists
0. Concerns, issues
Scientific
procedure
1. Screening
2.Delimit management scope, invite
stakeholder
3.Organize local council and scientific
committee
Reset goals
when not agreed
8. Check necessity and
purpose of management
4.Characterize “undesired events”
5. Enumerate measures of effects
6. Analyze stress factors by modelling
7. Risk assessment for no-action case
Reset goals when infeasible
9. Set preliminary numerical goal
10. Choose monitoring measures
11. Select method of control
13. Decide measures & goals
Revision required
12. Check feasibility of goals
14. Initiate management
15. Continue management and
monitoring
16. Review numerical
goals and purposes
Finish program
40
Why to conserve biodiversity?
• To enjoy human well-being based on
ecosystem services based on biodiversity
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)
• Good indicator for sustainable historical
relationship between human and nature
– Same as to conserve historical monuments
(Hirakawa & Higuchi 1997)
41
Conserve biodiversity and monuments
（Hirakawa & Higuchi 1997; Yahara & Washitani 1996）
• Rich biodiversity = an evidence of
sustainable relationship between our
ancestors and nature
• Sustainability is a global standard.
• Loss of biodiversity = an indicator of
unsustainable impact on the nature
• Our generation’s mission = to leave
native biodiversity to the next generation
as much as possible.
• Similar to conserve historical monuments
平川浩文・樋口広芳(1997)生物多様性の保全をどう理解するか科学67:725-731
鷲谷いづみ・矢原徹一(1996)『保全生態学入門』文一総合出版、270頁
42
http://www.imj.co.jp/simasha/000/migi07/p19.pdf
MPAs to protect Walleye Pollack
Since 1995
Spawning
ground
Since
2005
Bottom trawlings are totally banned at the coastal area
43
43
Made by Mitsutaku Makino
Coastal Foodweb at Shiretoko World
Natural Heritage
Most of keystone species are caught
and recorded by local fishers org.s!
Sustainable fisheries play roles of
umbrella species like top predators!
44
44
Made by Mitsutaku Makino
Fisheries production statistics (tons) at
Shiretoko WNH
Very informative time-series data for
monitoring the changes in ecosystem
structure/functions
45
45
Made by Mitsutaku Makino

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