100% Meiko Body-Train: 100% Meiko besteht aus Elementen

MARKET SNAPSHOT
Build
in
on th g
stro e
n
toep g
fer
herit
age
5 DECEMBER 2014
The trading week
Market
Last
Trade
7 Day
Move
CBOT
Wheat
($USc/bu)
589.75
27.75
CBOT Corn
($USc/bu)
389.75
11.5
CBOT Beans
($USc/bu)
1010.5
36.5
Winnipeg
Canola
($CAN/Mt)
412.7
14.4
Matif
Canola (€/
Mt)
336.75
1
AU$ / US$
0.8385
0.0156
AU$ / EUR
0.6772
0.0184
WHEAT
GLOBAL
Impressive gains create more bullish mood
Global wheat values have staged
impressive gains over the past
month, with front month CBOT
wheat testing key resistance levels
to the upside. Despite this, US
wheat does not currently price to
most importing destinations when
compared with other origins.
However, CBOT wheat derivatives
remain an important product for
the global Index and alpha funds,
which consider CBOT a global
benchmark for pricing, offering
transparency and liquidity, albeit
they do add to volatility. Today, the
AT A GLANCE
ADM PORT PRICES
APW1
(15/16)
APW 1
GA1 Malt
F1
Non GM
Canola
Sorghum
293
Brisbane
302
325
300
Newcastle
302
306
285
463
298
Pt Kembla
302
303
275
461
Geelong
302
303
310
275
466
Pt* Prices
Adelaide
are indicative
292
278
320
260
455
Kwinana (Port inc)
307
308
320
285
483
and subject to change
* Prices are indicative and subject to change.
speculative fund position in wheat
is approximately square.
DOMESTIC
Macro themes remain at the
forefront, with monetary easing
measures for the EU and China all
underpinning the US Dollar, but
contributing to the bearish tone of
the AUD, Euro and Yen, while the
Russian Rouble collapsed.
Australian east coast wheat
remains a domestic affair, with
current pricing in the BNE
zone $40USD above export
parity, while Port Kembla and
VIC remain at approximately $17-20USD over. North-eastern
Australia is waiting for a decent
summer rain, which will help
summer crops and aid continued
plantings. Summer crop
conditions will be the driver for
pricing going forward of wheat
Earlier this week, CBOT March
wheat had closed above 600c/bu,
testing the 180-day moving average.
In late September, we had march
CBOT wheat testing 480c/bu to
the downside, from where prices
have ground higher, culminating
in a post-Thanks Giving Day rally
putting on 45c/bu in a few trading
sessions.
Winter wheat issues have
contributed to the bullish tone, with
concerns over possible winter kill
namely in Russia, Ukraine and the
US. A lot of discussion on whether
there has been enough early snow
cover to protect against cold
conditions continues to circulate.
It was also rumoured that the
Russian Government was looking
to entertain a tariff on future wheat
exports, however, it appears it
remains rumour only.
Basis values soften
in north-eastern Australia.
WA and SA wheat values are
currently $12-15USD away from
working into the Middle Eastern
destinations on nominal grades,
while at current values we are
pricing into Asia.
Despite this, Australian wheat
basis values have softened in
recent weeks. In WA we have
seen values weaken in basis
terms from 140c/bu to 100c/bu
over December CBOT wheat,
while SA values have traded
from 135c/bu down to 60c/bu.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
PAGE 2
BARLEY
Firm trend continues
Generally speaking, the barley
market (for both feed and malt)
has been a stronger performer
since the commencement of
harvest. Other than the Victorian
Mallee and Wimmera, quality has
been very good and yield reports
from growers suggest the crop has
fared well despite the dry finish.
The market has remained firm
during harvest and maintained
itself with the retreating Aussie
dollar. Short covering from both
domestic and export buyers, in
CANOLA
addition to demand from China,
is definitely sustaining current
malt spreads and price levels,
all while growers remain active
sellers.
From an export demand
perspective, the market is
looking to cover April to July
requirements via both bulk and
containers. On the domestic
front, we would expect local
buyers to remain consistent
with their nearby purchases in
the hope the market may settle
once the peak shipping period
passes.
Negative crush margins
weigh on demand
Canola futures have continued
to take the lead from soybeans
over the last month, which has
ultimately been driven by nearby
demand for meal. Slow grower
selling and the delayed US bean
harvest kept processing pipelines
tight which, in turn, has followed
onto futures markets.
The US bean harvest is currently
99% finished following some
delays due to wet weather.
Nearby soy crush margins
continue to be solid, which has
allowed crush capacity to remain
strong. This throughput should
alleviate the meal shortage in a
relatively short period.
Matif futures have too been
supported by positive nearby
crush margins, although, at
current levels, these drop away
into the new year. Capacity is
being switched to soybeans
where possible and demand for
rapeseed will be reduced into the
new year.
Negative canola crush margins
in China have also weighed on
demand for canola seed, with
Chinese buyers currently showing
little interest at current levels.
As with European crushers,
Chinese crushers have switched
to soybeans where possible due to
better margins. All this appears to
equate to lower volumes of canola
heading to China in the coming
year.
Aussie seed continues to be
expensive compared with
Canadian seed and, at current
levels, will struggle to see
much additional demand basis
Canadian.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
PAGE 3
CANOLA continued
Canadian logistics appear to be
tracking okay, with Canadian
government officials announcing
on Saturday that minimum grain
volume shipment requirements for
railways will be extended to March,
which should reduce the risk of
logistical bottlenecks that were
experienced last year.
ABARE has lowered 2014/15
Australian canola production
to 3.32 mln t from September’s
estimate of 3.39 mln t.
The canola harvest is complete
in many areas, with most only
experiencing minor weather delays.
The falling Australian dollar has
helped support Aussie prices in
the short term and growers appear
happy to sell some tonnes now
that the canola harvest is relatively
complete.
The global canola / rapeseed
complex S&D continues to be
relatively relaxed considering
reasonable production and reduced
demand.
MAKING
NEWS...
ADM loads largest ever Australian canola shipment
Archer Daniels Midland Company’s
The vessel will then dispatch at ADM’s
dry-bulk vessels that will be delivered
(NYSE: ADM) newest oceangoing vessel,
Europoort facility in Rotterdam,
to ADM by Oshima Shipbuilding Co in
the MV Harvest Frost, recently sailed its
Netherlands, on around December 24,
the next few months, bringing ADM’s
maiden voyage out of Australia loaded
where the product will be crushed and
with the largest export shipment
distributed throughout Europe.
oceangoing vessel count to 11.
Loading of the MV Harvest Frost at CBH’s
of canola in the nation’s history –
The Harvest Frost is the first of three new
Kwinana facility in Western Australia.
77,612.20 metric tonnes.
95,000MT (dead weight) post-Panamax
Photo: NJ Humphrey Photography.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
PAGE 4
SORGHUM
Precipitation Forecasts
Precipitation (mm)
during the period:
Wed 03 Dec 2014 at 12Z
to
Thu 11 Dec 2014 at 12Z
Thu 11 Dec 2014 at 12Z
to
Fri 10 Dec 2014 at 12Z
Precipitation
(% of normal)
during the first period:
Wed 03 Dec 2014 at 12Z
to
Thu 11 Dec 2014 at 12Z
Rain dances continue
Everyone continues to wait for
rain. Hot and dry weather has
been the story of the past two
months, when growers have been
crying out for moisture to fill the
severely depleted soil profiles.
250
200
175
150
125
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
35
30
25
20
16
13
10
7.5
5
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
There have been some showers
across southern Queensland the
past month, but not the 75mm+
that is needed for a widespread
plant. Showers are forecast
this weekend that look very
encouraging, but again, it will only
prove to be worthwhile once it’s
in the rain gauge. There has been
many a false forecast over the past
six months.
The crop that is in the ground is
800
600
400
300
150
75
50
25
10
5
Central Queensland &
Southern New South Wales
Michael Vaughan
|
0427 308 317
starting to suffer from the lack
of moisture (see crop photo that
is representative of the current
crop in northern NSW).
If the rain does eventuate, it
will be too late to significantly
improve these crops, but it will
provide a good base for the
subsequent plant. We just need
the rain!!
In other news, Argentina
and China have signed
an agreement to allow
Argentinean origin sorghum
to be imported into China. The
details of the agreement are still
a bit hazy and it may take some
time to analyse the possible
impact on the market.
Victoria
Peter Sidley
|
0427 517 417
[email protected]
Western Australia
Reece Duffield
|
0418 589 334
[email protected]
[email protected]
Precipitation forecasts from the National Centres for Environmental
Prediction. Normal rainfall derived from Xie-Arkin (CMAP) Monthly
Climatology for 1979-2003. Forecast initialisation time: 12Z0CDEC2014
South Australia
Southern Queensland &
Northern New South Wales
Peter Dorney
|
0428 214 986
[email protected]
Ben Noll
|
0407 180 526
[email protected]
www.admgrain.com.au
Connecting the harvest to the home

Download Report