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INSIDE AGRICULTURE
Thursday, January 15, 2015
CHINA’S SOYBEAN IMPORTS
TOP NEWS
Click on the chart for full-size image
 India eyes wheat exports, but cheap European supplies pose
challenge
 Egypt and euro boosting French wheat exports -farm office
 Indonesia keeps Jan crude palm oil export tax at zero
 Argentina's 2014/15 soy harvest seen 54.5 mln tonnes -exchange
 Chipotle's pork plight could hurt 1st qtr results
 U.S. ethanol slumps to 9-year low on record supply spike
 Massachusetts firm recalls ground beef for possible plastic contamination
TODAY’S MARKETS
Futures
(as of 0730 GMT)
Active
Price
CBOT Wheat
MAR5
CBOT Corn
MAR5
CBOT Soybean
MAR5
Change
YTD
Volume
543 6/8
6
-8.82%
2,255
385 6/8
4 6/8
-4.03%
8,062
1017 4/8
8 2/8
-0.98%
11,021
CBOT Soybean Oil MAR5
$33.37
$0.55
2.66%
7,819
CBOT Soy Meal
MAR5
$337.40
$1.90
-7.98%
2,364
ICE Cotton
MAR5
$59.30
$0.32
-2.14%
928
ECONOMIC WATCH
GMT
Indicators
Unit Reuters
Prior
08:00 ES HICP mm
%
-0.6
-0.2
08:00 ES HICP yy
%
-1.1
-1.1
08:00 ES CPI mm
%
-0.6
-0.1
08:00 ES CPI yy
%
-1.1
-0.4
10:00 EZ Eurostat trade nsa, euro
bln
19.6
24.0
13:30 US NY Fed manufacturing
--
5.0
-3.6
13:30 US PPI final mm
%
-0.4
-0.2
13:30 US PPI final yy
%
1.0
1.4
13:30 US PPI core mm
%
0.1
0.0
13:30 US PPI core yy
%
1.9
1.8
13:30 US Initial jobless claims
k
291
294
mln
2.40
2.45
13:30 US Continued jobless claims
CLICK HERE FOR TENDERS
GRAINS: U.S. corn rose more than half a percent as bargainbuying by end users buoyed the market, after prices slid more than
5 percent over the past two sessions on pressure from growing
ethanol supplies.
"Softening that we have seen in oil prices will impact demand for
ethanol," said Graydon Chong, senior grains analyst at Rabobank.
SOFTS: Arabica coffee futures on ICE flirted with a six-week high
on Wednesday on renewed worries over short-term forecasts for
dry weather in top grower Brazil, but gains were pared by late-day
index selling.
"It has been overly dry again since December (in Brazil)," Commerzbank said in a daily market report. "The prospect of another
poor Brazilian coffee crop leads us to anticipate rising coffee prices
over the next few months."
EDIBLE OIL: Malaysian palm oil futures rose after a recent climb in
crude oil, with prices underpinned by concerns over a squeeze in
the tropical oil's supply as the No.2 grower braces for monsoon
rains over the Borneo region.
"Prices are generally being supported because of tightness in
nearby oil," said Chandran Sinnasamy, a trader at LT International
Futures in Malaysia.
STOCKS: European stocks were expected to open higher tracking
Asian stocks that edged higher after a significant rebound in oil and
copper prices brought a semblance of calm. Wall Street closed
negative on Wednesday.
CLICK HERE FOR TECHNICAL CHARTS
INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 16, 2015
TOP NEWS
Egypt and euro boosting French wheat exports -farm office
India eyes wheat exports, but cheap European supplies
pose challenge
Farm office FranceAgriMer lifted its forecast for French soft
wheat shipments outside the European Union this season for
the third month in a row as a falling euro and strong demand
from Egypt continued to bolster exports prospects.
The office said on Wednesday that it now expects France, the
EU's top wheat grower and exporter, to ship 8.8 million tonnes
of soft wheat outside the bloc in the 2014/15 season to June 30,
up from 8.5 million tonnes estimated a month ago.
The new forecast was still down 28 percent compared with
2013/14 exports, but well above the 8 million tonnes initially
projected by FranceAgriMer after a rain-hit harvest that threatened to rule France out of higher-quality wheat markets.
The euro set a new nine-year low against the dollar on Wednesday on the expectation that the European Central Bank will unveil a quantitative easing programme next week, making French
grain cheaper in dollar-priced export markets.
A rally in global wheat prices and a looming tax on Russian exports have set the stage for a resumption in India's overseas
sales, although cheaper European supplies could provide stiff
competition to the South Asian nation.
Exports by the world's No.2 wheat producer after a six-month
gap could cap benchmark wheat prices which soared 20 percent
in the past quarter on worries over Russian supplies.
"India is in a unique position to make the best out of the export
curbs put in place by Russia which was exporting wheat similar
in quality to Indian wheat," said a trader with a leading global
trading company in New Delhi.
Russia, a key wheat exporter, plans to introduce a duty of at
least 35 euros ($41) per tonne on shipments from February to
curb a rise in domestic prices.
India could sell around 2 million tonnes of wheat between February and July to Asian buyers as Russian supply dries up, traders and officials said.
Argentina's 2014/15 soy harvest seen 54.5 mln tonnes exchange
Indonesia keeps Jan crude palm oil export tax at zero
Argentina's 2014/15 soybean output is expected at 54.5 million
tonnes, the Rosario grains exchange said in its monthly report
on Wednesday, lowering its previous forecast of 55 million tonnes due to a reduction in projected planting area.
Argentine farmers are expected to plant 20.64 million hectares
with the oilseed, down from an earlier forecast of 20.7 million
hectares, the report said. Growers have sown 96 percent of this
season's projected soy area, it added.
The South American grains powerhouse is the world's top exporter of soymeal livestock feed and the No. 3 supplier of soybeans.
Argentina's corn crop was pegged by the exchange at 22.4 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 21.5 million tonnes.
Almost 90 percent of Argentina's 2014/15 corn area has been
planted, the report said
The already-collected 2014/15 wheat harvested was estimated
in the report at 12.1 million tonne, up slightly from a previous
forecast of 21.0 million tonnes.
Indonesia set its crude palm oil export tax for January at zero,
unchanged from the previous month, the trade ministry said in a
statement.
"The low levels of CPO (crude palm oil) prices remain below the
threshold of export duty imposition, which is at $750, causing
the export duty for CPO and its derivative products to remain at
0 percent for the period of January 2015," Director General of
Foreign Trade, Partogi Pangaribuan said.
The cocoa bean export tax was set at 10 percent for December,
unchanged from December, the statement added.
Chipotle's pork plight could hurt 1st qtr results
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's decision to suspend purchases from
a pork producer that ran afoul of its animal welfare rules could
bolster its reputation with diners but threatens sales and profits
this quarter.
The burrito chain's move caused a supply shortfall that is hitting
about one-third of its roughly 1,800 U.S. restaurants. Chipotle
shares fell 0.6 percent to $709.74 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
Diners choose braised pork "carnitas" as the protein in about 7
percent of all burritos, tacos, bowls and salads sold at the chain,
Miller Tabak + Co analyst Stephen Anderson said.
Anderson said the move should strengthen Chipotle's relationship with diners, many of whom like its "food with integrity" policy that focuses on using organic produce and antibiotic-free
meats when those ingredients are available.
Citing the risk of lost sales, Anderson cut his first quarter pershare earnings forecast to a range of $3.84 to $3.87 from $3.93.
He also lowered his growth forecast for sales at established
restaurants to 10 to 10.3 percent from 11 percent.
U.S. ethanol slumps to 9-year low on record supply spike
U.S. ethanol futures fell to the lowest levels in nearly a decade
on Wednesday after government data showed the largest supplies of the grain-based fuel additive in about two years, traders
said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said ethanol
stockpiles surged 1.38 million barrels to 20.23 million barrels in
the week ending Jan. 9.
The week-on-week spike in supplies of more than 7 percent
was the largest since EIA started tracking the data in 2010 while
average daily ethanol production increased 29,000 barrels per
day to 978,000 bpd.
The ballooning supplies come as ethanol continued to trade at a
rare premium to gasoline, which is helping to keep a lid on biofuel demand. The slump in crude oil and gasoline also taken a
toll on the alternative fuel industry, experts say.
Chicago Board of Trade ethanol futures for February delivery slumped 8.4 percent, or about 11 cents, to $1.29 per gallon,
the lowest level since June of 2005.
Ethanol's premium to gasoline futures shrank to about 4 cents
per gallon, smallest in three weeks.
2
INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 16, 2015
TOP NEWS (Continued)
Massachusetts firm recalls ground beef for possible plastic
contamination
The packages are labeled “EST. 8466” inside the USDA mark of
inspection and “USE OR FREEZE BY 01/16/15”.
The beef product was produced on Dec. 23, 2014 and shipped
to retail locations in Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey,
New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Problems with the product were discovered after J&G Foods
received consumer complaints through retail outlets that the
beef contained small malleable plastic pieces.
FSIS and the company have received no reports of adverse
reactions due to consumption of the product.
A Massachusetts meat company is recalling 33,948 pounds of
ground beef products that may be contaminated with plastic
materials, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and
Inspection Service (FSIS) said on Wednesday.
The agency said J&G Foods, Inc, in Sutton, Massachusetts recalled the product that consists of one-pound vacuum sealed
packages of “Wegman’s Organic 93 percent Lean/7 percent Fat
Grass-Fed Ground Beef.”
TENDER
WHEAT TENDER: Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set a tender on Wednesday to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from
Feb. 19 to 28.
CORN TENDER: South Korea's Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 50,000 tonnes of
corn in a tender on Wednesday thought likely to be sourced
from the United States, European traders said.
3
INSIDE AGRICULTURE
January 16, 2015
1-Month TECHNICAL CHARTS with 14 Days Moving Average
CBOT Corn
CBOT Wheat
ICE Cocoa
ICE Coffee
CBOT Soybeans
CBOT Soymeal
(Inside Agriculture is compiled by Renuka Vijay Kumar in Bangalore)
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