THE CLOSING BELL By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn www.LefflerCom.com TODAY’S THOUGHT Creativity requires the courage to let go of certainties Thursday, February 05, 2015 CATTLE and HOGS Futures Contract Net Change Closing Price Today's High Today's Low 14Day RSI 10-Day Moving Avg. 50-Day Moving Avg. Contract High Contract Low 30-Year High 30-Year Low Feb 15 LC 0.43 153.425s 154.13 152.35 40.41 152.87 160.46 172.65 128.85 172.65 51.70 Apr 15 LC -0.63 148.025s 149.60 146.88 33.60 149.89 159.14 171.10 130.20 171.10 52.60 Mar 15 FC -1.08 195.650s 197.47 193.00 29.32 201.13 215.65 237.80 172.00 237.80 55.92 May 15 FC -1.15 196.475s 198.25 193.95 27.85 202.42 216.65 237.52 192.00 237.52 46.15 Apr -1.85 66.275s 67.72 66.15 23.52 71.20 81.13 97.65 66.15 128.77 31.75 • • • • • 15 LH More new lows for the current slide was made in many of the cattle complex contracts, but the close was mostly positive for the live cattle and the feeders closed lower but well off the session lows The March, April and May feeders made new lows for the current move lower, while the rest of the feeders today made new contract lows The feeder index has been lower 17 of the past 19 sessions for a total loss of $23.75 Choice boxed beef has been lower 14 of the past 16 sessions for a total loss of $22.63 and the Select boxed beef has been lower 13 of the past 16 sessions for a total loss of $18.29 Today’s average beef plant margin according to HedgersEdge is estimated at $65.05 per head loss, yesterday it was $64.90 per head loss. • This week the USDA’s mandatory reporting service reported that  KS sold 1,215 head at $160.00  TX/OK sold 324 head at $160.00  Nebraska sold 1,467 head at $157.00-$159.00  Iowa/Minn. sold 2,401 head at $157.00 and $250.00 • Last week the USDA’s mandatory reporting service reported that  KS sold 9,740 head at $158.50-$160.50 and $255.00-$256.00  TX/OK sold 1,562 head at $159.00  Nebraska sold 21,500 head at $159.00-$161.00 and $250.00-$254.00  Iowa/Minn. sold 12,209 head at $158.50-$160.50 and $250.00-$255.00 ************* • ************* ************* ************* ************* More triple-digit losses today for the lean hogs and more downside for the pork cutouts Tom Leffler 1-866-468-6866 1-800-270-7694 2901 Lakeshore Drive / Augusta KS 67010 7231 HWY 40 / Quinter KS 67752 [email protected] [email protected] The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. 2/5/2015 Page 1 of 6 THE CLOSING BELL April Live Cattle traded mixed today, made a new low for February and closed negative. Support is at $146.87 Feb. Low… $146.65 Jan. Low… $143.52 May 2014 Low. Resistance is at $150.00 area… $153.50 area… $156.86 the 200-DMA… $159.14 the 50-DMA… $161.91 the 100-DMA. March Feeder Cattle today made a new low for the current slide, which is the lowest since June 4th and closed negative at around mid-range. Support is at $193.00 Feb. Low… $191.50 June Low. Resistance is at the $198.00 area… $200.00 area… $204.90 the 50% Retracement of the Contract Low to High… $206.40 area… $208.50 area… $211.68 the 200-DMA… $213.00 area… $215.65 the 50-DMA… $224.47 Jan. High. F.I. Cattle Kill Today Week Ago Year Ago Daily/wk. totals Box Beef Prices 110K / 427K Choice 600-900 $241.18 110K / 445K Select 600-900 $235.39 Choice/Select Spread 111K / 453K CME Cash Feeder Index $211.46 - $0.92 F.I. Hog Kill Daily/ wk. totals Today Week Ago Year Ago 430K / 435K / 425K / CME Hog Index $68.88 Net Change - $1.57 - $0.19 $ 7.17 Wholesale Pork 1.682M 1.720M 1.662M - $0.58 Cutout 185# Primal Loin Primal Ham Primal Belly Box Beef Load Count Choice Cuts Select Cuts Trimmings Coarse Grinds Price Net Change $73.97 $84.97 $57.85 $91.90 - $0.71 - $0.61 + $0.52 - $1.68 75 32 33 32 April Lean Hogs gapped lower on the opening, made a new contract low and closed negative. Support is at the $66.15 Feb. Low & Contract Low… $65.00 area. Resistance is at $68.00 area… $70.00 area…$72.00 area… $74.00 area… $76.00 area… $78.00 area… $81.13 the 50-DMA CORN Net Change Closing Price Today's High Today's Low 14Day RSI 10-Day Moving Avg. 50-Day Moving Avg. Contract High Contract Low 30-Year High 30-Year Low Mar 15 C 1' 6 385' 2s 387' 4 381' 4 49.13 3.79'1 3.93'3 5.96'2 3.30'4 8.38'0 1.42'0 Jul 1' 4 400' 4s 402' 2 396' 4 49.10 3.94'7 4.08'3 6.24'6 3.46'6 8.24'0 1.54'0 Futures Contract 15 C • • • • • • The corn price stabilized and closed with a small gain. Corn was the weakest grain in the complex. Weekly export sales number of 852,000 metric tons was decent for a lack of export sales last week. Mexico and Japan, traditional buyers, on the top of the list. Colombia was the other country buying over 100,000 metric tons. Sorghum sales totaled 223,600 metric tons. China and Unknown Destination bought the milo. It is no secret that China is the final destination for those milo sales listed for Unknown Destination. Total commitments for milo standing at 279 million bushels. This compares to last year’s total of 130 million bushels. The USDA projected milo sales for this crop year at 270 million bushels. There is still six months left in this marketing year. By itself, the corn price would have sold off but with double digit gains in the wheat and soybeans up 9 cents, the corn price found support. Funds were net buyers during today’s trading session. They purchased corn in small lots as the volume of trading light. Larry Glenn 1-866-468-6866 1-800-270-7694 2901 Lakeshore Drive / Augusta KS 67010 7231 HWY 40 / Quinter KS 67752 [email protected] [email protected] The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. 2/5/2015 Page 2 of 6 THE CLOSING BELL March Corn traded mixed and closed positive on an inside trading session. Support is at $3.79 the 100DMA… $3.65 ¾ Jan. Low… $3.60 area… $3.45 area… $3.30 ½ Contract Low. Resistance is at $3.93 the 50-DMA… $4.09 ½ Jan. High… $4.17 Dec. High… $4.23 ¼ to $4.26. SOYBEAN COMPLEX Net Change Closing Price Today's High Today's Low 14Day RSI 10-Day Moving Avg. 50-Day Moving Avg. Contract High Contract Low 30-Year High 30-Year Low Mar 15 S 9' 2 981' 2s 982' 6 969' 2 44.88 9.72'7 10.19'0 12.87'4 9.20'6 17.28'2 4.15'6 Jul 9' 0 992' 6s 994' 0 981' 0 44.58 9.85'0 10.30'4 12.89'0 9.35'2 16.79'4 4.01'4 Mar 15 SM -1.30 331.4s 334.10 330.00 44.18 334.50 345.70 410.70 292.10 518.00 120.00 Mar 15 BO 1.12 31.71s 31.97 30.55 50.40 30.72 32.20 48.75 29.32 71.26 14.10 Futures Contract 15 S • • • • • Soybean and soybean oil futures closed positive today and the soybean meal was lower The weekly soybean export sales were at 489.7 TMT the pre-report estimated range was 200-600 TMT The soybean meal export sales were at 296.3 TMT the pre-report range was 120-300 TMT Next Tuesday is the monthly USDA supply and demand report at 11 am The Dow Jones estimated 2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are at 398 million bushels, which is 12 million below January’s report Tom Leffler March Soybeans traded mostly positive and closed positive on an inside trading session today. Support is at the $9.70 area… $9.55 Jan. Low… $9.50 area… $9.40 area. Resistance is at $10.00 area… $10.06 the 100-DMA… $10.19 the 50-DMA… $10.61 Jan. High… $10.68 ¼ Dec. High… $10.89 ¾ the Nov. High March Soy Meal traded mixed and closed negative today. Support is at the $325.00 area… $321.00 Jan. Low… $315.00 area. Resistance is at $336.10 the 50-DMA… $345.70 the 200-DMA… $358.00 Jan. High. March Soy Oil traded and closed higher today. Support is at 31.00 area… 30.00 area… 29.32 Jan. & Contract Low… 29.00 area. Resistance is at 32.20 the 50-DMA… 33.92 Jan. High… 33.98 the Nov. High WHEAT Futures Contract Net Change Closing Price Today's High Today's Low 14Day RSI 10-Day Moving Avg. 50-Day Moving Avg. Contract High Contract Low 30-Year High 30-Year Low Mar 15 KW 11' 2 564' 0s 566' 4 549' 4 44.28 5.49'7 6.10'4 8.62'0 5.33'0 13.70'0 2.39'6 9' 0 567' 0s 570' 4 555' 0 42.10 5.57'2 6.16'4 8.20'0 5.37'0 13.20'0 2.30'0 Mar 15 W 14' 6 525' 6s 527' 6 508' 4 43.80 5.12'7 5.71'6 8.50'0 4.80'0 13.00'0 236'4 Jul 10' 2 528' 4s 532' 4 515' 4 40.87 5.21'0 5.78'5 8.15'0 4.96'4 12.72'6 2.30'0 Jul • 15 KW 15 W The wheat price pushed higher with the possibility of export demand the driving fundamental. Information from across the sea provided mixed signals for the wheat. 1-866-468-6866 1-800-270-7694 2901 Lakeshore Drive / Augusta KS 67010 7231 HWY 40 / Quinter KS 67752 [email protected] [email protected] The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. 2/5/2015 Page 3 of 6 THE CLOSING BELL • • • • Yesterday, the talk was Egypt would utilize a $100 million U. S. grant and would use this wheat purchases. Today, instead of a grant, the talk was a loan for this amount from the United States which had been offered for some time. The amount would account for six cargoes for wheat which would likely be soft red winter wheat. Talk indicated Egypt might wait until new crop supplies are available. Egypt has been purchasing wheat from countries away from the United States because of the price. The Ukraine currency which I cannot pronounce, took a major hit today as their central bank decided to stop funding. This sent their domestic wheat prices to record high price and will provide another reason why this country will stop exporting wheat for the short term. The weekly export sale for wheat totaled 487,000 metric tons. Mexico was the only country buying over 100,000 metric tons. Although not a high number but still staying close to recent weekly whet sales. Larry Glenn March KC Wheat had an outside trading session and closed positive today. Support is at the $5.50 area… $5.33 the Feb. Low & Contract Low… $5.30 area… $5.20 area. Resistance is at $5.70 area… $5.99 the 100-DMA… $6.11 the 50-DMA…. $6.42 Jan. High… $6.50 area… $6.75 area… $7.05 ¾ Dec. High March Chicago Wheat today traded and closed positive. Support is at $5.00 area… $4.92 ¼ Feb. Low… $4.90 area… $4.80 Contract Low. Resistance is $5.30 area… $5.48 the 100-DMA… $5.72 the 50-DMA… $6.03 ½ Jan. High… $6.25 area… $6.50 area… $6.77 Dec. High OTHER MARKETS: Net Change Closing Price Today's High Today's Low Contract Net Change Closing Price Dow Jones 211.86 17677.26 Mar 15 Cotton 0.56 26.25 2058.75 2020.75 Mar 15 Oats 6' 6 Mar 15 T-Bond -0' 18 150'19 148'23 Mar 15 Crude 2.03 Apr 15 Gold -1.80 17884.88 2056.25 148' 28s 1262.7s 17889.58 Mar 14 S&P 1274.60 1256.10 Mar 15 Heat 61.79s 287' 6s 50.48s 1.8059s Contract Current Map 1-866-468-6866 1-800-270-7694 0.0393 Today's High Today's Low 61.92 60.55 289' 0 281' 0 52.10 47.36 1.8372 1.7418 Year Ago Map 2901 Lakeshore Drive / Augusta KS 67010 7231 HWY 40 / Quinter KS 67752 [email protected] [email protected] The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. 2/5/2015 Page 4 of 6 THE CLOSING BELL Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day Moving Avg. // Red Line is 100-Day Moving Avg // Blue Line is Retracement 2015 APRIL LIVE CATTLE 2015 MARCH FEEDER CATTLE 2015 MARCH CORN 2015 MARCH SOYBEANS 2015 MARCH KC WHEAT 2015 MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT 1-866-468-6866 1-800-270-7694 2901 Lakeshore Drive / Augusta KS 67010 7231 HWY 40 / Quinter KS 67752 [email protected] [email protected] The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. 2/5/2015 Page 5 of 6 THE CLOSING BELL NEW CROP CHARTS for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat & Cotton Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day Moving Avg. // Red Line is 100-Day Moving Avg // Blue Line is Retracement 2015 DECEMBER CORN 2015 NOVEMBER SOYBEANS 2015 JULY KC WHEAT 2015 DECEMBER COTTON 1-866-468-6866 1-800-270-7694 2901 Lakeshore Drive / Augusta KS 67010 7231 HWY 40 / Quinter KS 67752 [email protected] [email protected] The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. 2/5/2015 Page 6 of 6 THE CLOSING BELL