University Research Priority Program Global Change and Biodiversity Predicting the State of the Environment: Integrating Mechanisms of Interactions, Feedbacks and Scale Schaepman S., Schmid B., Petchey O., Abiven S., Furrer R., Korf B., Morsdorf F., Niklaus P.A., Pernthaler J., Schaber P., Schaepman-Strub G., Schmidt M.W.L., Shimizu K. and V. Muccione Introduction Biodiversity is affected by global change drivers, modifying the ecosystem processes and services that are essential to human well-being. The University Research Priority Programme “Global Change and Biodiversity” will advance ability to predict consequences of biodiversity and drivers using a latitudinal gradient approach based on interactions, feedback and scale. Interactions: The various drivers of global change can act simultaneously, but at differing spatio-temporal scales, thus creating the potential for interactions among them. Such interactions could greatly affect the consequences of multiple global change drivers. Feedbacks: There are many opportunities for changes in one variable to feedback onto itself, via changes in a second or third variable. Feedbacks between biodiversity and environmental change can create non-linear system dynamics, and such systems can exhibit catastrophic shifts with little warning. Knowledge about the dominant feedbacks in a system are essential for effective management. Past view Present view Global Change Environment Species introduction Land use Biochemical cycles Climate Biodiversity Biodiversity Gentic diversity Diversity of species Ecosystem and landscape diversity Humans Well-being Welfare Security Freedom Ecosystems Biological resources Cultural values Regulating services Scale: Virtually all components of global change are aggregates of smaller (sub-global) scale processes. Cross-scale effects are important when assessing biodiversity at large and small scales together. Scaling the effects of changes in individual behaviour up to effects on large areas is necessary for sustainable management of these resources. Research Programme The programme's activities are bundled into eight interdisciplinary projects and six ecosystems (Table 1): Projects 1 Biodiversity-effects on vegetation-climate interactions in Switzerland and Siberia. 2 Relations between global change as driver of biodiversity change and feedback effects of biodiversity change on ecosystem functions in aquatic ecosystems. 3 Regional-scale genetic and functional diversity and associated ecosystem functions, and up-scaling across the latitudinal range of test sites. 4 The role of high diversity of tropical forests in supporting their functioning and stability. 5 Influences of environmental drivers and biodiversity on phenological adjustments and their genetic basis. 6 Biodiversity, net primary production and carbon storage in ecosystems. 7 Ecosystem-environment models linking sparse and local field observations with extensive but low-resolution satellite data. 8 The political ecology of environmental conflicts around tropical rainforests and their link to biodiversity loss. Experimental Systems Five experimental systems cover a latitudinal gradient in biodiversity, with a multitude of drivers affecting each site’s condition (Table 1). Climate change Invasive species 70.82N 147.47E ↑ → ↑ Tibetan plateau 37.48N 101.21E ↑ → ↑ Inland water Lake Zurich 47.34N 8.54E ↑ ↑ → ↑ Temperate Forest Laegern 47.48N 8.40E ↑ ↑ → ↑ Tropical Semihumid Aldabra 9.39S 46.21E → ↑ → → Tropical Forest Borneo 5.09N 117.64E ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Biome Site name Location Polar (Arctic) Siberia Temperate (montane) grassland Habitat change ↑ Table 1: List of experimental systems serving as reference sites within the project and their main direct drivers Cell colour indicates the impact to date of each driver on biodiversity in each biome over the past 50–100 years. The arrows indicate the trend in the impact of the driver on biodiversity. Overexploitation Pollution (N, P) Drivers impact on biodiversity Over last century Current trends Decreasing impact Low Moderate → Continuing impact Increasing impact High Very high ↑ Very rapid increase Contact details: Information Duration: 12 years (2013 onwards) URPP Global Change and Biodiversity University of Zurich Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Switzerland www.gcb.uzh.ch, mail: [email protected] Please contact us to learn more about the programme, and find out about opportunities to collaborate.