I t International ti l Con C nference f Climate Change e and Transport Karlsruhe, October 2014 WCTRS M d li market Modeling k t diffusi diff ion off Electric El t i Vehicles V hi l i Germany in G y St f Pf Stefan Pfahl hl1, P Patrick t i k JJochem h 2, H Hermann Ringelsc Ri l chwendner h d 1, Wolf W lf Fichtner Fi ht 2 1 Daimler AG AG, 71059 Sindelfingen Sindelfingen, Germany Germany, stefan [email protected], pfahl@daimler com 2 Chair of Energy Economics, Economics Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), (IIP) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (KIT), Germany Germany. Objective j  R Reaching hi g the th European E t g t for target f M1 vehicles hi l off EC regulation g l ti 4 443/2009, 443/2009 333/2014  Achieving the market share of 1M EV in the German Market  Develop a “communication communication model model” (PTD) which is easy to understand The Method The PTD model consists of  a TCO module  reference vehicles  TCO demand functio on  diffusion factor Fig 1: The challenge to rach the European emission target Fig. Fi 2 Fig. 2: Th The PTD model d l conceptt R Results lt for f the th Ge German market k t    Fig 3: Model results for different scenarios Fig.  Withoutt subsidies With b idi the th TCO O disadvantage di d t g off EV is i currently too high. high A car purchase subsidy will increase the EV market share significantly (cf. (cf Fig. Fig 4) 4 4). A subsidyy of 5,000 , Euro o p per EV will lead to substantial b t ti l market k t share h evven in i 2020 (cf. ( f Fig. Fi 3). 3) Successfully applied by the National German Platform for Electric Mobilityy (2012). (2012) Fi 4 Fig. 4: Model M d l results lt for f the th German G Market M k t R Results lt for f oth ther markets k t   A first fi t application ppli ti t to other th markets k t shows h considerable results (cf. (cf Fig g 5). g. 5) Results are confirmed by otther studies (fka and RB). Fig. 5: Model results for other countries C Conclusions l i  Without With t subsidies b idi th EV market the k t penetration t ti i too is t slo low and d the th German G t g t will target ill is i veryy hard h d to t reach. h  The easy comprehensible model PTD can be used to fin nd a common understanding of the future of electric mobiliity among different stakeholders Abbreviations: Abb i ti EC European EC: E C Commission i i | EV: EV Electric El t i Vehicle V hi l | TCO: TCO Total T t l Cost C t off O Ownership hi | ICEV: ICEV Internal I t l Combustion C b ti Engine E i Vehicle V hi l | PTD: PTD Prognosis P i on TCO and d Diffusion factor (simulation model) References: NPE (Nationa al German Platform for Electric Mobility) (2011): Zweiter Bericht der Nationalen Plattform Elektromobilität | NPE (2012): Zwischenbericht der Nationalen Plattform Elektromobilität | Pfahl, Pfahl S. S (2013): Alternative Antriebss s-konzepte: konzepte: Stand der Technik und Perspektiven – Die Sicht der Automobil Automobilindustrie, in: Jochem, P., W. W.-R. W R. Poganietz, A. Grunwald, and W. Fichtner (Eds.): Alternative Antriebskonzepte p bei sich wandelnden Mobilitätsstilen,, Karlsruhe,, 81-108 | fka and Roland Berger g ((2012), ), Quartalsindex Elektromobiilität,, Aachen,, Germany. y