Research@theTreasury Economic Research and Debate at the Italian Treasury Monthly newsletter March 2014 LATEST PUBLICATIONS Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: the Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP Authors: Enrico D’Elia WP N°2 2014 Economic agents are aware to incur in a loss basing their decisions on their own extrapolations instead of sound statistical data, but the loss could be smaller than the one related to waiting for the dissemination of final data. A broad guidance in deciding when statistical offices should release preliminary and final estimates of the key statistics may come from comparing the loss attached to users’ predictions to the loss associated to possible preliminary estimates from incomplete samples provides. New to download Italy's Strategy for Growth and Fiscal Consolidation - Updated March 2014 Are sovereign credit ratings procyclical? A controversial issue revisited in light of the current financial crisis – by Paolo Giacomino (Areté Research & Consulting in Economics) March 14, 2014 – Rome MEF BBLM Italy’s Major Structural Reforms - Updated February 2014 Valutazione di interventi di riforma del mercato del lavoro attraverso Read the paper: » Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: a Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy strumenti quantitativi (Italian version) - by Germana Di Domenico, Margherita Scarlato (MEF, Roma Tre University) Authors: Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio, Francesco Felici February 13, 2014 - Rome MEF BBLM WP N°1 2014 We study the potential impact of fiscal devaluation policies on the Italian economy using IGEM, a dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy developed at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance. The simulations show that fiscal devaluation policies are likely to produce slight improvements on the external position of the economy only in the short run, while the output gains seem to persist in the long run. Non-negligible distributional effects across households are also observed, since taxation on consumption tends to be regressive. Methodologies for the calculation of potential output, debt rule and expenditure benchmark under the new system of European governance - by Marco Cacciotti, Alessandra Caretta, Alessandra De Castro, Elena Masi, Roberto Morea (MEF, SOGEI) January 28, 2014 – Rome CER Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Italy: the NRP Approach - by Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio, Francesco Felici (Tor Vergata University, Read the paper: » In-Work Benefits for Married Couples: an ex-ante Evaluation of EITC and WTC Policies in Italy Authors: Giuseppe De Luca, Claudio Rossetti, Daniela Vuri SOGEI, MEF) January 24, 2014 -Bruxelles LIME Meeting A Cultural Clash View of the EU Crisis WP N°12 2013 This paper investigates labor supply and redistributive effects of in-work benefits for Italian married couples using a tax-benefit microsimulation model and a multi-sectoral discrete choice model of labor supply. We consider in-work benefits based on the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Working Tax Credit (WTC) existing in the US and the UK, respectively. Read the paper: » T-DYMM: the Treasury Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Italian Pension System Authors: Alessandra Caretta, Sara Flisi, Cecilia Frale, Michele Raitano, Simone Tedeschi WP N° 11 2013 The long-term development of the social security system is a crucial policy issue in terms of both financial sustainability and adequacy, which constitute a difficult trade-off facing the policy maker. The particular complexity of this issue, also in the light of demographic dynamics and the recent economic crisis, has encouraged the development of dynamic microsimulation models as to analyse the distributive effects of pension reforms in the long run. Read the paper: » Reforms, labour market functioning and productivity dynamics: a sectoral analysis for Italy by Luigi Guiso (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance-EIEF) January 15, 2014 – Rome MEF BBLM A new methodolgy for a quarterly measure of the output gap - by Marco Cacciotti (MEF) December 17, 2013 – Rome MEF BBLM A Broadened Approach to the Budget: an example from Italy - by Germana Di Domenico (MEF) December 5, 2013 - Paris OECD Financing Europe - by Lorenzo Codogno (MEF) December 4, 2013 – Hamburg - DZ BANK AG Global Central Bank Conference ‘QUO VADIS PUBLIC FINANCE Challenges and opportunities for public asset managers and issuers at a time of worldwide monetary transition’ Remarks regarding ‘Exiting the Claws of the Fiscal Compact-Basel III in order to Realize Infrastructure Projects’(Italian version) – by Lorenzo Codogno (MEF) Novembre 14, 2013 – Rome Dexia Crediop Authors: Cecilia Jona Lasinio, Giovanna Vallanti WP N°10 2013 Over the last two decades Italy registered notable improvements in the performance of the labour market both in terms of unemployment and participation. However, such improvements have been accompanied by a deterioration of productivity and competitiveness. This paper provides evidence in this respect evaluating to what extent labour market reforms might have influenced the poor productivity performance of the Italian economy over the period 1980-2008. Read the paper: » UNDER REVIEW FOR PUBLICATION Next Treasury Seminars BBLM – April 1, 2014 - Rome MEF Speaker: Robert S. Chirinko - University of Illinois at Chicago Job creation tax credits and job growth: evidence from U.S. States BBLM - May 6, 2014 - Rome MEF Speaker: Marco Leonardi - Università di Milano e IZA Employment Protection Legislation, Capital Investment and Access to Credit: Evidence from Italy BBLM – TBA - Rome Speaker: Michele Manna - Banca d’Italia Do Fuel Prices adjust to Oil Price Asymmetrically? Strategy and tactics in public debt Evidence from five European Countries Authors: Silvia D’Andrea, Enrico D’Elia, Giancarlo Fiorito Deregulation and growth in Italy Authors: Cristina Mocci, Stefania Pozzuoli, Francesca Romagnoli, Cristina Tinti management Suggested events Anaemic Europe: how to achieve dynamism and mass flourishing On the role of unobserved preference heterogeneity in discrete choice models of labour supply Authors: Daniele Pacifico Reweight: a Stata Module to reweight Survey Data to External Totals - XXVI Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar July 1-3, 2014 - Rome Quick Links Authors: Daniele Pacifico Working Papers Do fiscal Institutions impact fiscal Performance? Studies, Presentations and Speeches Authors: Giovanni Coletta, Carmen Graziano, Giancarlo Infantino Events Economic Focus Newsletter Monthly PIL Seminars at the Bank of Italy COMMUNICATIONS Seminars at EIEF Presentation of “Policy options to support the carbon price within the EU ETS " by Susan Battles, in collaboration with Stefano Clò and Pietro Zoppoli, at the Euro-Case Energy Platform conference "The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) - Taking stock, looking forward: Options for Reform” February 12-13, 2014, Brussels. Presentation of “What drives Italian electricity prices? The role of renewables” at the Second Annual Conference IAERE (Italian Association of Environmental and Resource Economists), by Stefano Clò, in collaboration with Alessandra Cataldi and Peter Zoppoli February 13-14, 2014 - University of Milan. Questa nuova newsletter presenta le occasioni di dibattito e i contributi di ricerca sui temi economicofinanziari del Dipartimento del Tesoro. Il vostro parere per noi è importante, potete scriverci a [email protected]. This is the new edition of the Italian Treasury newsletter presenting papers, presentations and seminars on economic and financial issues. If you have any comments or suggestions feel free to write us at [email protected]. Ministry of Economy and Finance Department of the Treasury Directorate I - Economic and Financial Analysis Office I Website: http://www.dt.tesoro.it/en/ E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +39 06 47614202 | +39 06 47614197 Fax: +39 06 47821886 To remove your name from the email distribution list, click here