Research@theTreasury Economic Research and Debate at the Italian Treasury Monthly newsletter May 2014 LATEST PUBLICATIONS Deregulation and Growth in Italy Authors: Cristina Mocci, Stefania Pozzuoli, Francesca Romagnoli, Cristina Tinti WP N°3 2014 The aim of this study is to assess the effects of anti-competitive service regulation on economic performance in Italy. This paper runs a cross-sector panel regression of the Italian value added growth on the OECD PMR sectorial regulation indicators (ETCR and RBSR) in the 1995-2008 period using the national Input-Output matrix. This analysis enriches the empirical understanding of the effects of regulation on national value added growth with relevant implications for policy making. The results prove that in Italy sectorial liberalization on total economy and manufacturing played a relevant role in increasing the value added. We find a negative and statistically significant relationship between the overall liberalization of services, as well as in Energy and Professions, and the performance of the whole economy and manufacturing sector in the considered period. Being Italy among the countries with a significant difference between the regulation (PMR) and the business perception (EFWDB) indicators, this paper provides a sense of this misalignment in the years of the panel. In particular, evidence shows that economic agents reacted positively to reforms related to state participation (Post, Telecom, Railways) and simplification of paperwork for start-ups in Italy. New to download Italian Reform Agenda 2014 - Updated May 20, 2014 Italy’s Strategy for Reforms, Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth - Updated May 19, 2014 Revitalising Europe’s Economy: Towards Growth – by Lorenzo Codogno (MEF) May 15-16, 2014 - Berlin - Asia Europe Economic Forum (AEEF) Employment Protection Legislation, Capital Investment and Access to Credit: Evidence from Italy – by Marco Leonardi (University of Milan and IZA) May 6, 2014 - Rome MEF BBLM Next Treasury Seminars BBLM – June 10, 2014 - Rome MEF Speakers: Erik Nielsen, Daniel Vernazza UniCredit Bank London The Damaging Bias of Sovereign Ratings BBLM – July 4, 2014 - Rome MEF Read the paper: » Mercato del lavoro tra riforme e crisi economica: quali effetti su dualismo e instabilità dell’occupazione? (Italian version) Authors: Desislava Dankova, Germana Di Domenico, Giancarlo Infantino, Manuela Palmera NT N°1 2014 Diverse sono le analisi teoriche ed empiriche sulla relazione tra le istituzioni del mercato del lavoro, che incidono, più o meno direttamente, sulla flessibilità dello stesso e la performance occupazionale. Una misura del grado di rigidità del sistema regolamentare utilizzata a livello Speaker: Michele Manna – Bank of Italy Strategy and tactics in public debt management Suggested events Anaemic Europe: how to achieve dynamism and mass flourishing - XXVI Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar July 1-3, 2014 - Rome internazionale è data dall’indicatore dell’OCSE sull’‘Employment Protection Legislation’ (EPL). Osservando l’evoluzione dell’indice EPL per l’Italia dalla fine degli anni ‘90 ad oggi, nella nota si evidenziano gli aspetti che più hanno inciso sulla natura duale del mercato del lavoro, accentuandola o arginandola. In parallelo, attraverso strumenti quantitativi e tecniche specifiche di valutazione delle politiche (Markov Switching e Difference-in-Differences), vengono analizzate le dinamiche occupazionali studiando, in particolare, le transizioni tra stati, nel tentativo di capire se e come i più recenti interventi di riforma del mercato del lavoro abbiano inciso sulla stabilità dell’occupazione, pur nel contesto di incertezza economica legato alla persistente congiuntura sfavorevole. Read the economic focus: » Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: the Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP Authors: Enrico D’Elia WP N°2 2014 Economic agents are aware to incur in a loss basing their decisions on their own extrapolations instead of sound statistical data, but the loss could be smaller than the one related to waiting for the dissemination of final data. A broad guidance in deciding when statistical offices should release preliminary and final estimates of the key statistics may come from comparing the loss attached to users’ predictions to the loss associated to possible preliminary estimates from incomplete samples provides. Read the paper: » Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: a Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy Authors: Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio, Francesco Felici WP N°1 2014 We study the potential impact of fiscal devaluation policies on the Italian economy using IGEM, a dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy developed at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance. The simulations show that fiscal devaluation policies are likely to produce slight improvements on the external position of the economy only in the short run, while the output gains seem to persist in the long run. Non-negligible distributional effects Quick Links Working Papers Economic Focus Studies, Presentations and Speeches Events Newsletter Monthly PIL Seminars at the Bank of Italy Seminars at EIEF across households are also observed, since taxation on consumption tends to be regressive. Read the paper: » In-Work Benefits for Married Couples: an ex-ante Evaluation of EITC and WTC Policies in Italy Authors: Giuseppe De Luca, Claudio Rossetti, Daniela Vuri WP N°12 2013 This paper investigates labor supply and redistributive effects of in-work benefits for Italian married couples using a tax-benefit microsimulation model and a multi-sectoral discrete choice model of labor supply. We consider in-work benefits based on the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Working Tax Credit (WTC) existing in the US and the UK, respectively. Read the paper: » UNDER REVIEW FOR PUBLICATION Do Fuel Prices adjust to Oil Price Asymmetrically? Evidence from five European Countries Authors: Silvia D’Andrea, Enrico D’Elia, Giancarlo Fiorito On the role of unobserved preference heterogeneity in discrete choice models of labour supply Authors: Daniele Pacifico Reweight: a Stata Module to reweight Survey Data to External Totals Authors: Daniele Pacifico Do fiscal Institutions impact fiscal Performance? Authors: Giovanni Coletta, Carmen Graziano, Giancarlo Infantino Employment Protection Legislation, Capital Investment and Access to Credit: Evidence from Italy Authors: Federico Cingano, Marco Leonardi, Julian Messina, Giovanni Pica ORANI-IT: a Computable General Equilibrium Model of Italy Authors: Francesco Felici, Maria Gesualdo Fiscal Extension to ORANI-IT: a Computable General Equilibrium Tax Model for Italy Authors: Francesco Felici, Maria Gesualdo COMMUNICATIONS The WP 'Un modello di crescita discontinua dell’impresa: teoria ed evidenza empirica’ by Enrico D’Elia, Leopoldo Nascia and Alessandro Zeli was published in the Rivista di Politica economica, n. I-III, 2014, p. 323-354. Questa nuova newsletter presenta le occasioni di dibattito e i contributi di ricerca sui temi economicofinanziari del Dipartimento del Tesoro. Il vostro parere per noi è importante, potete scriverci a [email protected]. This is the new edition of the Italian Treasury newsletter presenting papers, presentations and seminars on economic and financial issues. If you have any comments or suggestions feel free to write us at [email protected]. Ministry of Economy and Finance Department of the Treasury Directorate I - Economic and Financial Analysis Office I Website: http://www.dt.tesoro.it/en/ E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +39 06 47614202 | +39 06 47614197 Fax: +39 06 47821886 To remove your name from the email distribution list, click here