ブラジル人のように金持ち（2010年6月24日） - Itaú - Securities

株式投資戦略
株式調査部
June 24, 2010
ブラジル人のように金持ち
フランス語の”riche comme un Argentin”という表現は、18 世紀末にパリで流行し、1930 年
代初めまで使われていた。この表現は一般的に裕福な個人を記述する際に使われ、その人が
「アルゼンチン人のように金持ち」であることを示唆していた。アルゼンチン人のように金持
ちであることは、当時繁栄と富の基準として見られていた。100 年後、この表現は完全にその
意味を失った。しかし、弊社はそれを、所得不平等、所得配分及び消費の大幅な転換の例とし
て見ている。事実、現在ブラジルではこのような転換が大幅に生じており、2003 年以降、所得
階層 A/B/C に属するブラジル人の人口は 30％以上増加し、D/E の所得階層の人口は半分に減少
した。
ブラジル人はますます裕福になってきている。そして、中央銀行、FGV、そしてその他多数の
シンクタンクのレポートで最近取り上げられているように、新たなクレジットへのアクセス
が、消費パターンの変化をもたらした。重要なことに、これは、ブラジル人が経済の梯子を登
りつつある時期と期を一にしている。このような新しい消費パターンは、今週発表されたお待
ちかねの家計予算調査（ポルトガル語での頭文字をとって POF と呼ばれている）で余すところ
なく分析されている。POF はブラジルのこの部門についての最も広範囲の調査であり、政府の
統計局である地理統計院（IBGE)が作成している。前回調査は 2003 年であった。弊社の消費ア
ナリストは、最新の POF の興味深い数字について詳しく解説するであろうが、大まかにいっ
て、調査結果からは所得不平等の解消がさらに進んだことが確認された。
Risk Watch
P/E Countries
Relative P/E
E/P x EMBI Brazil
P/E Breakdown
Equity Indices
Risk Indicators
Commodities
Large x Small Caps
Macroeconomics
各所得階層の割合は変化
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Strategy Team
所得階層
AB (>R$4,807)
C (R$1,115-4,807)
D (R$804-1,115)
E (R$0-804)
出所：IBGE、FGV 及びイタウ・セキュリティーズ
ジニ計数は 0.5431 と依然としてはなはだしく高いが、傾向としては明らかに良好である。特
にここ 10 年間は、その前の数十年間にも及ぶハイパー・インフレと所得配分の悪化による打
撃を、一部反転させるものであった。今週発表された IBGE の統計を見ると、富裕層の月間支
出額は依然として貧困層の月間支出額の 9.6 倍となっており（2003 年は 10.1 倍）、最近の進
展にもかかわらず、ブラジルの道はまだ遠いことが示唆されている。次ページに、この統計が
1960 年代に開始されてからの、ブラジルのジニ係数の動きを示した。
Carlos Constantini, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3001
[email protected]
Susana Salaru, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3009
[email protected]
Cida Souza, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3038
[email protected]
ウォッチタワー
重要な開示事項、アナリストによる証明及び追加情報については、本調査レポートの 15 ページをご参照ください。Itaú
Corretora は本調査レポートにおいて対象となっている企業と取引を行っており、また取引を行おうとしています。そのため、
当社に利益相反関係が生じる可能性があり、本調査レポートの客観性に影響を及ぼす場合がありうることを投資家の皆様はご承
知置き下さい。本調査レポートは、投資家の皆様が投資の決定を行う際の一つの参考資料とお考えください。
Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. は、イタウ・ウニバンコ・グループの証券部門です。イタウ・セキュリティーズは Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.のブランド名です。
Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
ブラジルのジニ係数
0.62
0.6
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.5
1960
1970
1979
1990
2001
2007
2009
出所：PNAD/IBGE に基づき CPS/FGV が作成
ここで暗示されている重要なメッセージは、不平等の減少という面と併せ、一人当たり GDP の伸びと
社会保障計画の導入という面も分析する必要があるということである。社会保障計画には貧困層に資
金を提供するボルサ・ファミリア（家族基金）が含まれ、現在 4,900 万人に金融支援を行っている。
これらの相乗効果によって、ブラジルには新しい国内消費市場が誕生し、また 2003 年以降所得の増加
とともに少なくとも 3,200 万人のブラジル人が所得階層 D/E から所得階層 A/B/C へと移動した。さら
に重要なことに、FGV の研究では、2014 年までにさらに 3,600 万人が同じ道をたどり、1,450 万人が
貧困層から抜け出すと予想されている。
各所得階層人口の変化(2003-2008 年)
百万人
30
25.9
25
20
mn of individuals
15
10
6.1
5
0
-5
AB
C
D
(1.5)
E
-10
-15
-20
(19.5)
2003 年から 2008
年の変化
2008/2003
change
-25
出所：PNAD/IBGE に基づき CPS/FGV が作成
ブラジル国内消費市場の発展は複雑に絡み合った現象であり、このような並列した視点から分析する
必要がある。一方には一人当たり GDP と一人当たり所得の拡大があり、これが最も一般的に取り上げ
られる面である。もう一方には所得不平等の減少がある。すなわち、最貧層の平均所得は全体の平均
よりもはるかに速く増加して、消費パターンを変化させ、新しいタイプの商品需要を喚起し、潜在的
需要と借入意欲という点で一貫して予想に挑んでいる。これは、ブラジルの変貌のあまり明らかにな
っていない部分であり、下に示すように、異なる社会階層での長年にわたる所得の伸びの不均等な分
布によって可能となったものである。
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
所得階層別(10%ごと)の所得の伸び率(2001-2008年、％)
80
72.5
70
55.5
60
50.8
50
45.4
40
40.5
37.5
31.7
25.7
30
19.2
20
11.4
10
0
最貧
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
最富裕
10%
出所：CPS/FGV
幾つかの国、特にエマージング諸国では、ここ数年間高い GDP の伸びを経験しているが、ジニ係数が
かくも目覚ましく改善した国は少ない。主要国でもこの相乗効果を享受した国はほとんど存在しな
い。
ブラジルでは、信用残高の対 GDP 比と個人向け貸出の伸びとは、予想を上回っている。弊社の見ると
ころ、これは主に、我々のほとんどが（平均所得に基づいた）古い等式を新しいブラジルに引き続き
当てはめているためである。ブラジルの国内消費市場は、このモデルに戦いを挑みづける可能性が高
い。長期間・低コストの新しいクレジットは個人の潜在的借入れ能力を押し上げており、所得の増加
や不平等の減少と相俟って、構造的な変化をもたらしてきた。これは今後も続く可能性が高い。これ
は、ブラジルの国内消費株を選好すべき絶好の理由となる。
銀行口座数（百万）
個人の借入期間（日）
日日
250
550
定期預金
普通預金
200
500
150
450
100
400
50
350
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
出所: BACEN、Febraban 及びイタウ・セキュリティーズ
2006
2007
2008
出所: BACEN 及びイタウ・セキュリティーズ
Serasa Experian とムーディーズの最近の研究においては、個人の支払遅滞が今後増加すると予想さ
れ始めた。これは、特に新しい債務保有者がおそらく債務管理やレバレッジの取扱いに慣れていない
ためもある。弊社は当然この点を注視していくが、地方企業からのヒヤリングや最近のマクロ経済統
計から判断すると、現時点では、不良債権がすぐに増加するとは考え難いように思える。ブラジルに
おける現在の引締め局面にもかかわらず、パーティは続く可能性が高いようである。次に示すよう
に、信用と所得の伸びの分析からも、支払遅滞は管理下にあるように思える。
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
信用と所得の増加率の差（遅行）と個人の支払遅滞の増加率
45%
40%
40%
30%
35%
20%
30%
10%
25%
20%
0%
.
15%
-10%
10%
-20%
5%
Lagged
Credit - Income growth Gap YoY
- left
信用と所得の増加率の差（遅行）左軸
個人の支払遅滞の増加率（前年比）- 右軸
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
-30%
Sep-10
2010
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Nov-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
2009
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Jul-08
2008
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
Nov-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
2007
May-07
Jan-07
Mar-07
Nov-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
2006
May-06
Jan-06
Mar-06
Nov-05
Jul-05
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Mar-05
2005
Sep-08
Individuals Delinquency growth YoY - right
0%
2011
出所：BACEN 及びイタウ・セキュリティーズ
予見しうる将来には支払遅滞が大きな問題とはならずまたファンダメンタルズが強いため、国内消費
株はブラジルのポートフォリオの中核的な保有銘柄となる。残念ながら、多くの場合、すでに株価は
上昇してしまっており、現時点で投資しうる銘柄は限られている。したがって、弊社は、厳選した銘
柄、例えば CBD(PCAR5)、COSAN（CSAN3）及び Lojas Renner（LREN3）へのエクスポージャーを推奨す
る。
弊社は、ブラジルが景気循環のピークに近づいている可能性を認識している。しかし、これは終わり
の始まりというよりも、始まりの終わりである可能性のほうが高い。
FGV の消費者信頼感指数
景気循環
10
回復
好況
期待指数
2008/5
2006/8
2007/5
2007/8
5
2006/8
2008/8
2007/2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2010/8
2010/2
2009/11
0
10
2010/5
15
2006/11
20
現況指数
2009/8
2006/8
2008/11
-5
-10
2009/5
2009/2
後退
不況
-15
出所: FGV 及びイタウ・セキュリティーズ
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
RISK WATCH
PIGS 5Y USD Credit Default Swap
1000
16,000
800
12,000
600
bps
20,000
8,000
4,000
Portugal
US Initial Jobless Claims
Italy
Greece
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Jan-09
Bond Interest
Mar-09
0
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
0
Bond Principal
Spain
Greece – Germany Bond Spread
700
2000
1800
600
1600
1400
500
1200
Spread (bps)
Thousands
400
200
May-10
Amount Outstanding (EUR Millions).
Greece Debt Schedule
400
300
1000
800
600
400
200
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year
Jun-10
Jun-09
Dec-08
Dec-09
0
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
200
30 Year
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
P/E COUNTRIES
12 Month Forward P/E
20
18
16.4x
16.5x
India
C hile
16
13.7x
14
P/E
12
12.4x
12.5x
United States
C hina
11.0x
9.9x
10
8
6
5.6x
4
2
0
Russia
Brazil
South Africa
Mexico
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
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140%
120%
100%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Itaú Securities
-7Jan-10
Jan-10
Jan-09
60%
Jan-09
60%
Jan-08
80%
Jan-08
80%
Jan-07
100%
Jan-07
120%
Jan-06
Brazil x Mexico
Jan-06
0%
Jan-05
0%
Jan-05
20%
Jan-04
50%
Jan-04
40%
Jan-03
100%
Jan-03
60%
Jan-02
150%
Jan-02
80%
Jan-01
200%
Jan-01
100%
Jan-00
250%
Jan-00
Brazil x China
Jan-99
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Brazil x Russia
Jan-99
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
RELATIVE P/E
Brazil x India
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
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E/P X EMBI BRAZIL
12 Month Forward E/P x EMBI Brazil
30
25
yield (%)
20
15
10
5
Sovereign Yield
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
0
Earnings Yield
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
P/E BREAKDOWN
2010 Bovespa Index P/E by Sector
2011 Bovespa Index P/E by Sector
20
25
18
16
20
14
12
P/E
P/E
15
10
8
10
6
4
5
2
P/E11 C onsensus
P/E10 Itaú Securities
Bovespa
Information
Technology
Consumer Staples
Consumer
Discretionary
Telecommunication
Services
Utilities
Industrials
Financials
Materials
Bovespa
Information
Technology
Consumer Staples
Consumer
Discretionary
Telecommunication
Services
Utilities
Industrials
Financials
Energy
Materials
P/E10 Consensus
Energy
0
0
P/E11 Itaú Securities
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
EQUITY INDEX PERFORMANCES
Last Price
YTD
QTD
MTD
12 Months
Change
6 Months
Change
3 Months
Change
1 Month
Change
1 Week
Change
1,074
-3.7
-8.2
-1.4
19.2
-4.7
-8.1
0.0
-3.8
-1.7
MEXBOL Index
32,313
0.6
-2.9
0.9
36.3
-0.7
-2.6
5.0
-1.4
-1.1
Brazil
IBOV Index
63,937
-6.8
-9.1
1.4
28.7
-5.4
-7.2
6.7
-0.9
-1.9
United Kingdom
UKX Index
5,100
-5.8
-10.2
-1.7
19.2
-5.6
-10.2
0.6
-2.9
-1.5
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
HSI Index
20,733
-5.2
-2.4
4.9
-3.6
-0.2
9.2
3.0
-0.6
Nikkei
Japan
NKY Index
9,768
-7.4
-11.9
0.0
-0.3
-6.9
-9.8
3.3
-2.3
-1.6
IPSA
Chile
IPSA Index
4,075
13.8
8.3
4.8
34.9
15.5
8.0
8.0
-0.2
-0.3
3,193
-11.9 -11.4
Stock Exchange
Country
Ticker
S&P 500
United States
SPX Index
Mexico Bolsa
Mexico
Ibovespa
FTSE 100
13.5
1 Day Change
MSCI Index
MSCI Brazil
0.7
29.6
-9.6
-9.5
8.1
-2.5
-1.9
MSCI Mexico
Mexico
MXMX Index
5,256
2.3
-5.0
1.8
41.2
0.6
-3.1
6.9
-3.0
-1.4
MSCI Chile
Chile
Brazil
MXCL Index
MXBR Index
2,117
3.2
3.1
2.6
28.3
4.5
4.3
8.4
-3.3
-1.7
MSCI India
India
MSEUSIA Index
478
2.0
-2.7
4.1
32.9
2.5
-0.8
8.8
0.6
-0.7
MSCI Russia
Russia
MXRU Index
742
-6.7
-12.6
0.5
29.8
-7.6
-9.1
5.6
-0.6
-1.5
-0.8
MSCI Emerging Mkt.
Emerging Market
MXEF Index
952
-3.8
-5.8
2.8
28.4
-2.2
-4.0
6.8
-0.1
MSCI Hong Kong
Hong Kong
MSDUHK Index
7,116
-2.4
-4.4
6.0
16.6
-0.6
-4.4
6.3
3.1
0.0
MSCI USA
United States
MXUS Index
1,021
-3.8
-8.3
-1.5
19.1
-4.8
-8.2
0.0
-3.8
-1.7
Energy
Emerging Market
MXEF0EN Index
711
-10.6
-9.9
0.4
14.6
-9.6
-8.2
6.2
-1.8
-1.7
Consumer Discretionary
Emerging Market
MXEF0CD Index
492
0.6
-0.4
2.9
49.1
2.3
0.8
8.8
-0.8
-0.7
Healthcare
Emerging Market
MXEF0HC Index
548
4.2
-7.0
2.7
29.0
4.0
-6.7
7.5
-0.2
-0.5
28.7
-2.1
-2.8
6.1
0.4
-0.8
MSCI Emerging Market
Financials
Emerging Market
MXEF0FN Index
330
-3.6
-5.6
3.7
Information Technology
Emerging Market
MXEF0IT Index
215
-5.6
-5.5
1.8
37.8
-2.9
-4.7
4.4
0.2
0.1
Utilities
Emerging Market
MXEF0UT Index
315
-2.7
-4.0
2.7
16.0
-0.6
-2.4
6.0
-1.0
-0.8
Energy
Brazil
MXBR0EN Index
1,215
-23.1 -18.3
-3.5
2.0
-21.5
-19.2
6.6
-6.3
-2.6
Consumer Discretionary
Brazil
MXBR0CD Index
86
-14.6
-0.8
6.4
47.4
-10.3
-2.2
14.5
-1.6
-2.7
Financials
Brazil
MXBR0FN Index
763
-11.1
-8.7
1.6
36.1
-8.3
-3.2
7.2
-2.8
-2.3
Information Technology
Brazil
MXBR0IT Index
82
-3.5
-11.5
2.7
-6.2
1.3
-9.5
4.9
-6.0
-1.6
Utilities
Brazil
MXBR0UT Index
253
-5.5
-1.8
6.9
29.3
-1.0
-1.2
9.6
-0.3
0.3
MSCI Brazil
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
RISK INDICATORS
VIX and ITraxx Europe
Global Risk Aversion
10
Apr-09
0
ITraxx Europe (rhs)
AAA - BBB- (lhs)
US Equity Put Call Ratio
Spread (bps)
100
0
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
0
VIX Index (lhs)
200
100
200
0
300
10y - 2y Treasury (rhs)
May-10
400
200
Mar-10
20
400
Jan-10
600
Spread (bps)
30
Index (pts)
800
300
500
1,000
40
Index (pts)
600
Oct-09
50
1,200
Aug-09
1,400
Jun-09
60
TED (rhs)
Brazil and Peers – 5Y USD CDS
900
1.0
800
0.9
700
600
Spread (bps)
Put Call Ratio
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
500
400
300
200
100
Bollinger Avg
Upper Band
Low er Band
Brazil
Exp. Mov. Avg.
Russia
C hina
May-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
May-09
Jan-09
Mar-09
0
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
0.4
Mexico
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
COMMODITIES
Pulp (left)
500
900
400
800
300
May-10
Jan-09
Soybean (left)
Mar-10
1000
Iron Ore(right)
Polyethylene - Naphtha and Crude Oil
Sugar (right)
Normalized Weekly Price Changes
90
80
500
75
300
70
0.4
Number of Std. Dev.
85
700
0.8
Oil Prices (USD/Barrels).
900
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
CRB Spot
Ticker
Last Price
CRB Spot Index
CRB CMDT Index
424
B METL Index
720
QTD
MTD
0.7
-1.6
-0.2
12
Mont
hs
18.1
-11.0
-14.9
-3.0
23.6
YTD
6 Months
Change
3 Months
Change
1 Month
Change
2.9
-2.5
-8.1
-13.5
CRB
Wheat
Soybean
Corn
Baltic Dry
Copper
Gold
Gasoline
May-10
Crude Oil (right)
Dow Jones-AIG
Ariculture
Polyethylene - Naphtha Spread (left)
Metals CR
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
65
WTI
-1.2
100
Brent
Spread (USD/metric tonne)
600
May-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Steel (left)
Mar-10
60
May-09
400
Mar-09
80
Jan-09
500
1100
Dec-09
100
700
Oct-09
120
600
1200
Aug-09
140
700
800
May-09
160
800
1300
Mar-09
900
180
USD/100 bushels
200
USD/metric tonne
1000
USD/metric tonne
Soybean and Sugar
USD/metric tonne
Steel, Pulp and Iron
1 Week
Change
1 Day Change
30-day
Volatility
-1.0
0.0
-0.4
7.9
-3.7
-0.8
-0.5
20.3
5.5
Textiles
CRB TEXT Index
291
-1.0
0.9
-0.1
14.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
-0.4
0.2
Raw Industrials
CRB RIND Index
478
-1.1
-5.1
-0.7
20.4
0.5
-4.9
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
8.8
Foodstuffs
CRB FOOD Index
356
3.4
3.5
0.6
14.7
6.6
1.2
-1.0
0.6
-0.6
10.8
Fats & Oils
CRB FTOL Index
378
11.3
3.2
1.4
17.5
13.4
1.2
2.3
0.4
-1.2
12.9
Livestock
CRB LIVS Index
471
19.3
3.3
-0.2
31.1
22.4
2.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.9
12.5
CRY Index
262
-7.7
-4.3
2.7
4.7
-6.9
-2.9
3.8
-0.6
0.7
17.3
2.8
11.8
CRB Future
CRY
GSCI
Global Commodity
SPGSCI Index
-4.3
-5.3
5.9
-1.9
0.3
26.2
Energy
SPGCENTR Index
916
-9.9
-11.1
2.4
-6.1
-8.3
-8.1
7.4
-2.9
0.0
29.7
Metals
SPGCINTR Index
1484
502
-13.1
-16.8
-4.3
19.8
-11.4
-2.7
-11.7
-2.9
-5.1
2.1
1.9
39.4
Petroleum
SPGCPTTR Index
1982
-9.2
-12.5
2.0
-3.4
-7.3
-9.1
6.9
-2.6
0.1
31.2
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
ITAÚ LARGE CAPS X SMALL CAPS INDEX
Performance Breakdown by Market Capitalization
Large Cap / Small Cap Ratio
160
40%
140
30%
large cap / small cap (%)
120
index price
100
80
60
40
20%
10%
0%
-10%
20
Mid C ap
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
Mar-10
Oct-09
May-09
Dec-08
Jul-08
Feb-08
Large Cap
Aug-08
Feb-08
-20%
-
Small Cap
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
MACROECONOMICS
Swap Pre DI 30 x 360 Days
Inflation Expectation - The Next 12 Months
5.3
14
13
4.8
11
% YoY
% YoY
12
10
4.3
9
2.3
3.4
May-10
Mar-10
40
8.1
2.8
8.3
5.9
-4.5
30
10.2
% YoY
-0.6
0.4
1.4
0.0
20
10
9.5
-1.1
Global USD Liquidity
May-10
Dec-09
Jul-09
15
Feb-09
10
Sep-08
5
Apr-08
0
Nov-07
0
-5
Jun-07
-4.4
Dec-09
50
5.0
-11.0
-10
Oct-09
Global USD Liquidity
Jan-07
-15
Aug-09
SWAP Pre x DI 360 days
Currencies x USD – 12 Months % Change
South African Rand
Hungarian Forint
Taiwan Dollar
Sigapore Dollar
Malaysian Ringgit
Hong Kong Dollar
C hilean Peso
Brazilian Real
Euro
Japanese Yen
New Turkish Lira
Russian Ruble
Indian Rupee
C hinese Renminbi
British Pound
Mexican Peso
Argentine Peso
May-09
Jan-09
May-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
SWAP Pre x DI 30 days
Mar-09
3.8
8
3YMA
Last Price
YTD
QTD
MTD
12 Months
Change
6 Months
Change
3 Months
Change
1 Month
Change
1 Week
Change
1 Day Change
ARS Curncy
3.93
-3.3
-1.2
-0.6
-3.5
-3.6
-1.6
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
12.73
2.9
-2.9
1.6
3.8
1.2
-1.3
2.5
-1.4
0.0
0.67
8.4
1.8
-2.6
9.7
7.0
-0.7
-3.4
-0.6
0.1
Currencies x USD
Country
Ticker
Argentine Peso
Argentina
Mexican Peso
Mexico
MXN Curncy
British Pound
United Kingdom
USDGBP Curncy
Chinese Renminbi (Yuan)
China
CNY Curncy
6.80
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
Indian Rupee
India
INR Curncy
46.49
0.1
-3.4
-0.3
4.5
0.4
-1.9
1.1
-0.4
-0.6
Russian Ruble
Russia
RUB Curncy
31.00
-3.1
-5.1
-0.3
0.8
-4.5
-4.3
-0.3
0.1
0.5
New Turkish Lira
Turkey
TRY Curncy
1.58
-5.2
-3.9
-0.4
-1.6
-4.1
-1.8
-0.2
-1.2
-0.5
Japanese Yen
Japan
JPY Curncy
89.67
3.7
4.2
1.8
7.0
1.8
3.4
0.6
1.2
-0.1
Euro
Eurozone
USDEUR Curncy
0.81
16.3
9.6
-0.1
13.5
16.9
7.7
0.2
0.5
0.1
Brazilian Real
Brazil
BRL Curncy
1.78
-2.2
-0.1
2.1
10.5
-1.2
1.0
4.9
-0.2
0.2
Chilean Peso
Chile
CLP Curncy
537.25
-5.5
-2.4
-1.3
-1.0
-5.7
-0.7
0.1
-1.2
0.2
Hong Kong Dollar
Hong Kong
HKD Curncy
7.78
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
Malaysian Ringgit
Malaysia
MYR Curncy
3.24
5.8
0.8
0.7
9.1
5.9
2.5
3.9
0.4
Sigapore Dollar
Singapore
SGD Curncy
1.39
0.9
0.5
0.5
4.5
1.0
1.1
1.5
-0.5
0.0
Taiwan Dollar
Taiwan
TWD Curncy
32.03
-0.1
-0.9
-0.2
2.6
0.7
-0.7
0.2
0.7
-0.1
-2.6
-14.3
-17.5
-13.2
-1.7
-1.8
-0.1
1.1
5.6
-0.8
-1.4
3.2
-1.1
0.3
Hungarian Forint
Hungary
HUF Curncy
229.63
South African Rand
South Africa
ZAR Curncy
7.59
-17.7 -14.5
-2.5
-4.0
0.0
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson and Itaú Securities
Itaú Securities
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
DISCLAIMER
Itaú Securities is a brand name of Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships (3)
Ratings
Definition
(1) (2)
Coverage
(3)
Outperform
The an alyst ex pects t he s tock to perf orm
better than the market average.
52% 37%
Market Perform
The an alyst ex pects t he s tock t o p erform i n
line with the market average.
39% 28%
Underperform
The an alyst ex pects t he s tock to perf orm
below the market average.
Banking
Relationship
(4)
9% 6%
1. Ratings reflect the analyst’s assessment of the stock price performance in the medium term compared
with the market average. Recommendations wi ll be val id unti l the anal yst cha nges the r ating, whi ch
may happen as a result of news or si mply due to a change in the stock pri ce (there is not a defi ned
time horizon).
2. Companies are g rouped, accordi ng to their si milarities, into sectors . The sector s a re: (i ) B anking &
Financial Services, (ii) Consumer Goods & Retail + Food & Beverage, (iii) Healthcare + Education, (iv)
Steel & Min ing + Pu lp & Pa per, ( v) O il, G as & Pet rochemicals + A gribusiness, ( vi) Real E state, (v ii)
Telecommunications, Medi a and Technol ogy, (vii i) Transportati on, Industri als and Logi stics, ( ix)
Utilities (x) Equity Strategy.
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The ratings used herei n (Outperform, Market Perf orm and Underperform) for purpos es of the rati ngs
distribution disclosure requirements of FINRA and t he NYSE, corresp ond most cl osely, respectively, to
Buy, Hold and Sell.
4. Percentage of companies within this rating category for which Itaú Unibanco S.A. or any of its affiliated
companies provided investment banking services within the past 12 (twelve) months, or may provide
investment banking services during the next 3 (three) months.
Relevant Information
1. This report has been produced by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A (“Itaú Corretora”), a subsidiary of
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in any rel ationship wi th any individual who ha s
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Strategy Weekly – June 24, 2010
advisory b oard member of th e companies ana lyzed in th is r eport. Itau Unibanco Grou p and th e
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Equities
Christian Egan - CEO
Research
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
+55-11-3073-3001
Equity Strategy
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
Susana Salaru, CNPI
Cida Souza, CNPI
Pedro Maia, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3001
+55-11-3073-3009
+55-11-3073-3038
+55-11-3073-3065
Banking & Financial Services
Alexandre Spada, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3004
Consumer Goods & Retail + Food & Beverage
Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA - Sector Head
+55-11-3073-3035
Francine Martins, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3039
Healthcare + Education
Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA - Sector Head
Marcio Osako, CFA
Enrico Grimaldi
+55-11-3073-3035
+55-11-3073-3040
+55-11-3073-3012
Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals + Agribusiness
Paula Kovarsky, CNPI - Sector Head
Diego Mendes, CNPI
Giovana Araújo, CNPI
André Pinheiro
+55-11-3073-3027
+55-11-3073-3029
+55-11-3073-3036
+55-11-3073-3028
Real Estate
David Lawant, CNPI - Sector Head
Ricardo Lima
Vivian Salomon
Enrico Trotta
+55-11-3073-3037
+55-11-3073-3007
+52-55-5262-0672
+55-11-3073-3064
[email protected] Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper
Marcos Assumpção, CFA - Sector Head +55-11-3073-3021
Alexandre Miguel, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3020
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected] Telecommunications, Media & Technology
[email protected] Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
+55-11-3073-3001
Martín Lara
+52-55-5262-0673
Susana Salaru, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3009
[email protected] Tito Ferraz
+55-11-3073-3066
Industrials + Transportation & Logistic
+52-55-5262-0674
Renata Faber, CNPI - Sector Head
[email protected] Fernando Abdalla, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3019
[email protected]
Utilities
Marcos Severine, CNPI - Sector Head
+55-11-3073-3011
[email protected] Mariana Coelho, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3024
[email protected] Marcel Shiomi, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3014
[email protected]
Economics
Guilherme da Nóbrega, CNPI - Head
+55-11-3708-2715
[email protected] Mauricio Oreng
+55-11-3708-2807
[email protected] Luiz Gustavo Cherman
+55-11-3708-2712
[email protected]
[email protected] Quantitative Research
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
+55-11-3073-3001
Pedro Maia, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3065
[email protected]
[email protected] Technical Analysis
[email protected] Marcio Lacerda, CNPI - Head
+55-11-3073-3005
[email protected] Marcello Rossi, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3006
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Equity Sales & Trading
Latin America
Sales - Latin America
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Cecilia Viriato
Márcia Sadzevicius
Rodrigo Pace
+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3330
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Sales Trading - Latin America
Eduardo Barone - Head
Aureo Bernardo
Carlos Carvalho Lima
Carlos Faria
Cristiano Soares
Fernando Lasalvia
Lucas Gonçalves
Sérgio Rocha
Thiem Hauenschild
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Europe, Middle East & Asia
Sales - Europe
Mark Fenton - Head
André Luiz Dreicon
Fabio Faraggi
+44-20-7663-7845
+44-20-7663-7845
+44-20-7663-7839
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Sales - Japan
Masayoshi Yazawa
Gerson Konishi
+813-3539-3850
+813-3539-3852
[email protected]
[email protected]
Sales - Hong Kong
Jack Xu - Head
Caio Galvão
+852-3657-2388
+852-3657-2398
[email protected]
[email protected]
North America
Sales - North America
Adam Cherry - Head
Flavia Stingelin, CFA
Marcello Spinelli
Carina Cassab Carreira
Sales Trading - North America
Kevin Hard - Head
Eric Krall
Gustavo Rosa
James Tallarico
Brad Marra
+1-212-710-6766
+1-212-710-6768
+1-212-710-6767
+55-11-3073-3330
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3340
+55-11-3073-3340
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3211
+55-11-3073-3211
[email protected]
[email protected]
Futures, Derivatives & Stock Lending
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Thierry Decoene
+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3300
Futures Desk
Eduardo Barcelos
Fabio Herdeiro
Alan Eira
Alexandre Rizzo
Celso Azem
José Dezene
Vinicius Cobo
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
[email protected] Derivatives
[email protected] Fabiano V. Romano - Head
Rafael Americo
Raphael Lie
Marcio Caires
[email protected]
[email protected] FX Spot
[email protected] Manoel Gimenez
[email protected] Haroldo Vasconcellos
[email protected]
[email protected] Stock Lending
[email protected] Marina Leite
João Victor Caccese
Private Banking Desk
Felipe Beltrami - Head
Marcos Skistymas – Business Intelligence
+55 11 3073-3273
+55 11 3073-3110
Private Banking - Sales
Lucas Tambellini
Marcelo Ferri
Pedro H. Rocha Sauma
Sergio Fonseca Rosa
+55 11 3073-3110
+55 11 3073-3110
+55 11 3073-3110
+55 11 3073-3110
[email protected] Private Banking - Trading Desk
[email protected] Caio Felipe Zanardo Val
Edgard Claussen Vilela
Eduardo Guilherme dos Santos
[email protected] Guilherme Rudge Simões
[email protected] Gustavo Bocuzzi
[email protected] João Gabriel
[email protected] João Roberto A. de Souza
Joseana Requejo Amaral
Julio Pimentel Algodoal Neto
Kleber Falopa
Leonardo Mattiussi
Luis Fernando Kanashiro
Luiz Ricardo C. Lobo
Marco Antônio Gomes
Natália Mônaco
Nicolas E. Balafas
Patrick Campos de Mello
Patrick Kalim
Pedro Feres
Ricardo Guntovitch
Ricardo Julio Costa
Robinson Minetto
Rogerio M. Kurussu
Sandra Steffen Brianti
Thiago de Freitas Ribeiro
+55 11 3073-3292
+55 11 3073-3291
+55-11-3073-3168
+55-11-3073-3150
+55-11-3073-3150
+55-11-3073-3145
+55 11 3073-3298
+55 11 3073-3293
+55 11 3073-3210
+55 11 3073-3148
+55 11 3073-3290
+55 11 3073-3210
+55 11 3073-5880
+55 11 3073-3148
+55 11 3073-3297
+55 11 3073-3299
+55 11 3073-3292
+55-11-3073-3145
+55-11-3073-3149
+55-11-3073-3149
+55 11 3073-3297
+55 11 3073-3290
+55 11 3073-3291
+55 11 3073-3297
+55-11-3073-3290
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+1 212 710-6782
+1 212 710-6745
+1 212 710-6766
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Sales - Europe
Rodolfo Dejon
Rodrigo Malizia
+44 207 663-7843
+44 207 663-7843
[email protected]
[email protected]
Sales - Asia
Gerson Konishi
+813-3539-3852
[email protected]
+ 971 4 381 0650
+ 971 4 381 0656
[email protected]
[email protected]
+852-3657-2388
+852-3657-2398
+852-3657-2379
+852-3657-2368
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+81-3-3539-3847
+81-3-3539-3848
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fixed Income
Alexandre Aoude, Global Head of Fixed Income
Fixed Income Research
Ciro Matuo, CNPI - Sector Head
Boanerges Pereira, CNPI
Sérgio Vailati, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3049
+55-11-3073-3050
+55-11-3073-3067
Sales - Latin America
Luis Fernando Guido
Andre Farkas
Rogério Cunha
Luiz Felipe Ferraz
Felipe Almeida
Vinicius Pinho
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8610
Sales - North America
[email protected] Douglas Chen
[email protected] Mario Bonilla
[email protected] Richard Cascais
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Alternative Investment Products
São Paulo
Marcelo Fatio - Head
Lizandro Arnoni
New York
Roger Freitas
London
Mark Fenton - Head
Raquel Franco
Pedro Rafael
+55-11-3073-3505
+55-11-3073-3584
+1-212-710-6778
+44-20-7663-7845
+44-207-663-7838
+44-207-663-7841
Dubai
[email protected] Adriano Cantreva - Head
[email protected] Fernando Diez Notarnicola
Hong Kong
[email protected] Jack Xu - Head
Caio Galvão
Charles Lin
Eduardo Bernardes
[email protected]
[email protected] Tokyo
[email protected] Kenichi Noguchi - Head
Hiroyuki Shimizu
Itaú Securities' Global Offices
SÃO PAULO
Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A
Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3400 - 9º Andar
São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-132
NEW YORK
Itaú USA Securities Inc.
540 Madison Avenue, 23rd floor
New York - NY 10022
LONDON
Itaú UK Securities Ltd.
6th Floor - 17 Dominion Street
London EC2M 2EF
HONG KONG
Itaú Asia Securities
TOKYO
Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch
NBF Hibiya Bldg. 5F
1-1-7 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan
DUBAI
Itaú Middle-East Securities
Regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong
29/F, Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street - Central, Hong Kong
Al Fattan Currency House (DIFC)
3rd floor – room 305 (P.O. Box: 65703)
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Itaú´s Complaints Officer (Ouvidoria Corporativa Itaú) may be contacted at
0800 570 0011 (calls from Brazil), on business days, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (São Paulo, Brazil time) or P.O. BOX 67.600, Zip Code 03162-971.
The information herein is believed to be reliable but Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Banco Itaú S.A. may have a position from time to time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed in the United States by Itaú USA Securities Inc., and Itaú USA Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for its contents accordingly. Any US p
receiving this research and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only with Itaú USA Securities Inc. Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support, not issuing personal opinions.