ทิสโก้ไฟแนนเชียลกรุ๊ป

EARNINGS RESULTS
ทิสโก้ไฟแนนเชียลกรุ๊ป
13 มกราคม 2558
TISCO TB / TISCO.BK
Sector: Bank Overweight
กำไรไรราำส4/57 4รำาาำ
าำแนะนำพื้นฐำน:44ซื้อ
เป้ำหาำยพื้นฐำน:44 51.00 บำท
รำาำ4(12/01/58): 445.50 บำท
Price chart
ผลกาไรไตรมาส 4/57 ตรงตามคาด
TISCO รำยงำนผลกำไรไรราำส44/57 ที่41.2 พันล้ำนบำท4เพิ่าขึ้น464%
YoY และ413% QoQ ร่ำกว่ำาำ กำรณ์ของเรำ43% แร่สูงกว่ำาำ กำรณ์4
Bloomberg 9% กำไรจำกกำร ำเนินงำนที่ไา่รวาสำรองหนี้เสีย (PPOP)
อยู่ที่42./64พันล้ำนบำท4เพิ่าขึ้น42% YoY และ44% QoQ กำไรปี4277 4
าิ เป็น499% ของประาำณกำรกำไรปี4 277 4ของเรำที่4/.34พันล้ำนบำท
ประเด็นหลักจากผลประกอบการ
สินเชื่อห รัว41.8%4QoQ า่อนข้ำงรรงรำาประาำณกำรณ์ของเรำ4หำก
แบ่งรำาประเภท4สินเชื่อรำยย่อย4(โ ยหลักสินเชื่อเช่ำสำหรับซื้อรถยนร์
และรถจักรยำนยนร์) 4ล ลง42./% QoQ สินเชื่อ4SME ล ลง42.6%
QoQ และสินเชื่อบรรษัทล ลง40.6% QoQ ซึ่งเห็นไ ้ชั ว่ำสินเชื่อที่
ล ลงาำจำก4SME4ที่เป็นรัวแทนจำหน่ำยรถยนร์4(car dealer) และรำย
ย่อย4สินเชื่ อที่ล ลงทำให้ ส่ว นร่ำงอัรรำ อกเบื้ยล ลง41/4bps QoQ
เป็น43.07% (แร่เพิ่าขึ้นาำกจำก42.78% ในไรราำส4/5764จำกร้นทุน
อกเบี้ยที่ล ลงาำกกว่ำ อกเบี้ยเงินกู้)
ธนำาำรรั้งสำรองหนี้สูญ ฯน้อยลงาำกที่4883 ล้ำนบำทสำหรับไรราำส4
4/57 ล ลง445% YoY และ423% QoQ ซึ่งสะท้อนขำ ทุนจำกรถยนร์ที่
ถูกยึ และประาูลขำยในระหว่ำงไรราำส4ซึ่งก่อนหน้ำเรำาำ ว่ำธนำาำร
จะรั้งสำรองหนี้สูญฯที่49764ล้ำนบำท4สั ส่วนหนี้สินที่ไา่ก่อให้เกิ รำยไ ้
ร่ อ สิ น เชื่ อ รวาของธนำาำรเพิ่ า ขึ้ น เป็ น 42.57% ณ4สิ้ น ปี 4 277 4จำก4
2.37% สำาเ ือนก่อนหน้ำ4อัรรำส่วนา่ำเผื่อหนี้สงสัยจะสูญสะสาร่อหนี้
ที่ไา่ ก่อให้ เ กิ รำยไ ้ ข องธนำาำรอยู่ที่4 103% ณ4สิ้ น ปี 4277 4ล ลง
เล็กน้อยจำก4106% ณ4สิ้นเ ือนก.ย.4ทั้งนี้4รำยไ ้จำกา่ำธรราเนียาไรร
าำส4/57 4อยู่ ที่41.2/4พันล้ ำนบำท4เพิ่าขึ้ น41% YoY แร่ล ลง43%
QoQ
แนวโน้ม
ผู้บริหำรแนะสินเชื่อรวาเริบโร47%4ในปีนี้ 4หนุนโ ยสินเชื่อบรรษัทและ
สินเชื่อ4SME4เรำาองว่ำาีาวำาเสี่ยงเล็กน้อยที่จะร่ำกว่ำเป้ำ ังกล่ำว
สิ่งที่เปลี่ยนแปลงไป
เรำยังางประาำณกำรกำไรปี4 2558 ไว้ที่44.75 พันล้ำนบำท4อีกทั้งเรำยัง
าำ ว่ำกำไรไรราำส415784จะเริบโร4QoQ หนุนโ ยรั้งสำรองหนี้สูญฯที่
ล ลงและสินเชื่อที่กลับาำเริบโร
คาแนะนา
เรำาำ ว่ำสินเชื่อ4SME สินเชื่อบรรษัท4และสินเชื่อส่วนบุาาลจะเริบโร
ในปีนี้เนื่องจำกเศรษฐกิจกำลังฟื้นรัว4เรำยังาองว่ำรั้งสำรองหนี้สูญฯของ4
TISCO จะล ลง411% ในปี427784จำกแนวโน้าที่ ีขึ้น4เรำไ ้ปรับ4PBV
ณ4สิ้นปี427784จำก41.24เท่ำ4เป็นา่ำเฉลี่ยระยะยำวที่4 1./74เท่ำ4ส่งผลให้
รำาำเป้ ำ หาำย4ณ4สิ้ น ปี 427784เพิ่ า ขึ้ น เป็ น 4714บำท4 ั ง นั้ น 4เรำจึ ง ปรั บ
าำแนะนำขึ้นจำก4ถือ4เป็น4ซื้อ
See disclaimer at the end of report
Price
Bt
50
Rel. to SET
40
30
20
10
01/14
03/14
05/14
Share price perf. (%)
Relative to SET
Absolute
07/14
1M
(2.7)
(1.6)
09/14
Rel. Idx
105
100
95
90
85
80
11/14
3M
0.7
-
12M
(1.1)
18.2
Key statistics
Market cap
12-mth price range
12-mth avg daily volume
# of shares (m)
Est. free float (%)
Foreign limit (%)
Consensus
rating
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
USD1.1bn
USD1.6m
BLS Target price BLS earnings
vs. Consensus
vs. Consensus
Buy
44
Hold
36
20
Bt36.4bn
Bt36.3/Bt47.5
Bt52m
801
74.3
49.0
Sell
1
Bt
52.0
50.0
48.0
46.0
44.0
42.0 BLS Cons.
BLS Cons.
Btm
5000
BLS
Cons.
4500
4000
3500
14E 15E
Financial summary
FY Ended 31 Dec
Revenues (Btm)
Net profit (Btm)
EPS (Bt)
EPS grow th (%)
Core profit (Btm)
Core EPS (Bt)
Core EPS grow th (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend (Bt)
Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
2013
18,961
4,249
5.31
+3.8%
8,095
10.11
+32.4%
8.3
1.6
2.0
4.4
18.5
2014
18,891
4,250
5.31
+0.0%
8,437
10.54
+4.2%
8.3
1.4
2.0
4.4
16.5
2015E
18,718
4,750
5.93
+11.8%
8,495
10.61
+0.7%
7.4
1.3
2.2
4.8
16.4
CG rating
Suwat Bumrungchatudom
Securities Fundamental Investment Analyst
[email protected]
+66 2 618 1341
2016E
21,239
5,150
6.43
+8.4%
8,999
11.24
+5.9%
6.8
1.2
2.4
5.3
16.2
TISCO : Financial Tables – Year
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm )
Interest income
Interest expense
Net interest incom e
Fee & service income
Total non-interest incom e
Operating income
Operating expenses
Operating profit before provision
Provisioning charges
Operating profit after provision
Exceptional items
Tax
Minority interest
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Fully diluted EPS
Core net profit
Core EPS
PPOP
KEY RATIOS
Revenue Grow th (%)
PPOP Grow th (%)
EPS Grow th (%)
Net Loan Grow th (%)
Cum. LLRs to Net loans (%)
Provision charge to loans (%)
Yield on Average Assets (%)
Cost of Funds (%)
Interest Spread (%)
Net Interest Margin: NIM (%)
Effective tax rate (%)
Asset grow th (%)
BALANCE SHEET (Btm )
Cash
Interbank & securities
Investment in securities
Net Loan & accrued interests
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
ST debts, REPO & current portion
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity
2012
15,211
(8,166)
7,044
4,129
4,595
11,639
(5,024)
6,615
(1,922)
4,693
121
(1,081)
(28)
3,705
5.11
5.11
5,535
7.63
6,615
2013
18,961
(10,144)
8,817
5,191
5,584
14,401
(5,265)
9,136
(4,141)
4,995
354
(1,041)
(59)
4,249
5.31
5.31
8,095
10.11
9,136
2014
18,891
(9,351)
9,540
4,976
5,546
15,085
(5,605)
9,480
(4,426)
5,054
264
(1,043)
(25)
4,250
5.31
5.31
8,437
10.54
9,480
2015E
18,718
(9,038)
9,679
5,399
6,049
15,728
(6,034)
9,694
(4,000)
5,694
300
(1,199)
(45)
4,750
5.93
5.93
8,495
10.61
9,694
2016E
21,239
(10,958)
10,281
5,803
6,596
16,877
(6,557)
10,320
(4,000)
6,320
200
(1,321)
(49)
5,150
6.43
6.43
8,999
11.24
10,320
27.0
8.2
13.4
34.7
2.1
0.8
6.1
3.3
2.8
3.0
22.4
31.6
24.9
38.1
3.8
15.2
3.3
1.5
5.9
3.2
2.7
2.8
19.5
21.7
(1.2)
3.8
0.0
(8.6)
2.0
1.7
5.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
19.6
(10.1)
1.0
2.3
11.8
5.0
2.3
1.5
5.8
2.8
3.0
3.1
20.0
4.4
12.1
6.5
8.4
7.5
12.2
1.4
6.2
3.2
3.0
3.1
20.3
6.7
1,046
31,196
7,016
243,547
7,692
290,497
219,823
27,877
0
24,416
272,117
7,279
1,040
9,472
18,196
184
290,497
1,131
53,214
11,647
280,619
6,795
353,406
264,642
43,084
145
22,481
330,352
8,007
1,018
11,896
22,919
67
353,406
1,180
38,058
15,003
256,390
7,026
317,657
205,384
65,406
29
21,014
291,833
8,007
1,018
14,429
25,731
93
317,657
1,200
37,500
15,378
269,300
8,153
331,531
200,249
74,000
0
28,400
302,649
8,007
1,018
17,578
28,769
113
331,531
1,250
39,855
16,500
289,385
6,709
353,698
216,269
76,500
0
29,200
321,969
8,007
1,018
20,966
31,588
142
353,698
5,122
273,996
254,260
9,253
314,737
278,709
6,950
303,331
283,130
6,288
317,005
273,724
6,950
335,184
284,634
25.10
25.60
28.63
29.12
32.14
32.63
35.93
36.43
39.45
39.95
3,099
1.20
7.47
587.21
3,719
1.18
8.17
616.36
6,750
2.57
9.81
3.83
5,355
1.78
10.68
537.27
6,426
1.98
10.92
491.59
Asset quality
Loan loss reserve
Average interest earnings assets
Average interest bearing liabilities
BV per share
ABV per share
NPL amounts
NPL (%)
Equity/loans
Equity/NPLs
Loan and asset growth
%
Gross loan growth (%) (LHS)
Asset growth (%) (RHS)
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
10
11
12
13
14
15E
16E
LDR and loan to deposit+debt
LDR (%)
Loan / (Deposit + Debt)
Loan / (Deposit + Debt - RR)
580
480
380
280
180
80
10
11
12
13
14
15E
16E
Net interest margin and interest spread
%
NIM (%)
Interest spread (%)
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
10
11
12
13
14
15E
16E
Loan loss provisioning
Provision charge / Loans (bp)
LLR / Net loans (%)
bp
%
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
11
12
13
14
15E 16E
NPLs and reserve against NPLs
%
NPL (%) (LHS)
LLR / NPL (%)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
%
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
10
11
12
13
14
15E 16E
Dividend payout
Dividend (Bt)
Payout ratio (%)
Bt/Shr
KEY ASSUMPTIONS (%)
GDP Grow th
Avg Lending Rate
Avg Funding Cost
Net Fee Income Grow th
OPEX Grow th
1 Day REPO rate
2012
5.5
6.5
3.7
44.7
1.8
2.8
2013
4.5
6.3
3.3
25.7
4.8
2.3
2014
2.9
6.6
3.8
(4.2)
6.5
2.0
2015E
3.3
6.7
4.0
8.5
7.7
2.5
2016E
4.5
6.8
4.2
7.5
8.7
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
%
2.40
2.35
2.25
60
50
2.25
2.20
40
30
2.00 2.00
20
10
0
10
11
12
13
14
15E 16E
ทิสโก้ไฟแนนเชียลกรุ๊ป - 2
TISCO : Financial Tables – Quarter
QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm )
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net interest income
Fee & service income
Other incom e & MI
Total non-interest income
Operating inc
Operating expenses
Operating profit before provision
Provisioning charges
Operating profit after provision
Exceptional items
Profit before tax
Tax
Minority Interest
Net profit (loss)
EPS
Core profit
Core EPS
4Q13
4,784
2,617
2,168
1,220
53
1,004
3,172
769
2,403
1,612
790
90
880
161
33.36
752
0.94
2,275
2.84
1Q14
4,998
2,692
2,306
1,235
53
1,236
3,541
1,310
2,231
1,170
1,061
74
1,135
238
(22.15)
875
1.09
1,971
2.46
2Q14
4,858
2,435
2,423
1,259
65
1,370
3,793
1,363
2,430
1,225
1,205
90
1,295
246
(11.38)
1,037
1.30
2,172
2.71
3Q14
4,757
2,255
2,502
1,273
37
1,309
3,811
1,461
2,350
1,149
1,202
184
1,386
277
(20.28)
1,089
1.36
2,053
2.56
4Q14
4,278
1,969
2,309
1,236
336
1,631
3,940
1,471
2,469
883
1,586
(84)
1,502
282
29.16
1,248
1.56
2,216
2.77
KEY RATIOS
Yield on Average Assets (%)
Cost of Funds (%)
Interest Spread (%)
Net Interest Margin (%)
Fee income/total operating income (%)
BV (Bt)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Assets to Equities (X)
Cost to Income (%)
Est CAR (%)
5.5
3.0
2.5
2.6
38.4
28.7
13.6
0.9
15.4
22.4
13.3
5.8
3.1
2.7
2.8
34.9
30.2
14.9
1.0
13.9
36.5
14.3
5.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
33.2
29.6
17.5
1.3
14.1
36.4
15.4
5.9
2.8
3.1
3.2
33.4
31.1
18.1
1.3
12.9
38.3
16.4
5.4
2.5
2.9
3.0
31.4
32.3
19.8
1.6
12.3
37.9
16.7
QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm )
Cash & Equivalent
Interbank & securities
Investment in securities
Net Loan & accrued interests
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
ST debts, REPO & current portion
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity
1,131
53,214
11,647
280,619
6,795
353,406
264,642
56,778
0
8,932
330,352
8,007
1,019
11,896
22,919
67
353,406
1,087
29,554
16,354
278,586
7,225
332,807
227,611
71,049
0
9,946
308,606
8,007
1,019
12,833
23,945
255
332,807
1,094
29,445
17,605
273,998
7,340
329,483
226,736
68,827
0
10,212
305,776
8,007
1,019
12,263
23,438
269
329,483
1,012
29,440
11,972
268,360
6,874
317,658
207,075
75,889
0
9,776
292,740
8,007
1,019
13,296
24,628
290
317,658
1,180
38,058
207
256,390
21,821
317,657
205,384
77,554
0
8,895
291,833
8,007
1,019
14,429
25,731
93
317,657
4Q13
7
68
32
12
(15)
(13)
1Q14
(2)
65
35
10
(19)
(10)
2Q14
0
64
36
9
(2)
(15)
3Q14
6
66
34
8
4
2
4Q14
24
59
41
7
1
91
Net loan growth trend
YTD Loan growth (%)
FY Loan growth (%)
%
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
-10
Privisoining charge (accumulated)
Accum. Provisioning (Bt,m)
% of FY Provision
Bt,m
5,000
%
100
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
100
4,000
80
61
3,000
54
42
2,000
26
1,000
0
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
Net profit trend (accumulated)
Bt,m
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Accum. Profit (Bt,m)
% of FY Profit
%
100 120
100
82
100
71
80
56
45
60
21
40
20
0
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
Net interest margin
%
FY NIM (%)
NIM (%)
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
Interest spread
FY Interest spread (%)
Interest spread (%)
%
3.2
3.0
2.8
BANK DATA
Total Income Grow th (%)
NII/Total Income (%)
Non-NII/Total Income (%)
Net Interest Income Grow th (%)
Net Fee Income Grow th (%)
OPEX Grow th (%)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
Company profile
Established in 1969 as Thailand’s first investment bank, TISCO is the acronym of the company’s original name—Thai Investment & Securities
Co Ltd. It was the first finance company to receive approval from the Ministry of Finance to upgrade its status to a commercial bank in October
2004. TISCO commenced operating on June 30, 2010 with 46 branches. 9M12 lending grew by 21%YTD at end September 2012 and
accounted for 88% of assets. Retail loans made up 71% of total loans, followed by corporate and SME loans at 18% and 9%, respectively. As
of end-December 2014, its CAR was a high 16.7% with 12.5% for Tier-1.
ทิสโก้ไฟแนนเชียลกรุ๊ป - 3
Figure 1 : 4Q14 results
FY Ended 31 Dec (Btm)
4Q14
4Q13 YoY %
3Q14
QoQ
%
FY14
Income Statement
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net interest income
Fee & service income
Total non-interest income
Operating expenses
Operating profit before provision
Provisioning charges
Operating profit after provision
Exceptional items
Profit before tax
Tax
Minority Interest
Net profit (loss)
EPS
4,278
1,969
2,309
1,236
1,631
1,471
2,469
883
1,586
(84)
1,502
282
29
1,248
1.56
4,784
2,617
2,168
1,220
1,004
769
2,403
1,612
790
90
880
161
33
752
0.94
(11)
(25)
7
1
62
91
3
(45)
101
(194)
71
75
(13)
66
66
4,757
2,255
2,502
1,273
1,309
1,461
2,350
1,149
1,202
184
1,386
277
(20)
1,089
1.36
(10)
(13)
(8)
(3)
25
1
5
(23)
32
(146)
8
2
nm
15
15
18,891
9,351
9,540
5,003
5,546
5,605
9,480
4,426
5,054
264
5,318
1,043
(25)
4,250
5.31
18,961
10,144
8,817
5,234
5,369
5,265
8,921
4,141
4,781
568
5,349
1,041
(59)
4,249
5.45
(0)
(8)
8
(4)
3
6
6
7
6
(54)
(1)
0
(58)
0
(3)
Key ratios
Yield on Average Assets (%)
Cost of Funds (%)
Interest Spread (%)
Tax rate (%)
Net Interest Margin (%)
Assets to Equities (X)
Cost to Income (%)
Est CAR (%)
5.39
2.48
2.91
18.8
3.05
12.3
37.9
16.7
5.53
3.03
2.51
18.3
2.58
15.4
22.4
13.3
(0.15)
(0.55)
0.40
5.88
2.79
3.09
19.97
3.19
12.9
38.3
16.4
(0.49)
(0.31)
(0.19)
5.95
2.94
3.00
19.6
2.93
12.35
38.5
16.7
5.89
3.15
2.74
19.5
2.74
15.42
37.5
13.3
0.06
(0.21)
0.26
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalent
1,180
Net Loan & accrued interests 256,390
ST debts, REPO & current portion77,554
Long-term debt
0
291,833
Total liabilities
Retained earnings
14,429
25,731
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
93
BV (Bt)
32.3
1,131
280,619
56,778
0
330,352
11,896
22,919
67
28.7
4
(9)
37
0
(12)
21
12
38
12
1,012
268,360
75,889
0
292,740
13,296
24,628
290
31.1
17
(4)
2
0
(0)
9
4
(68)
4
0.47
(0.14)
FY13 YoY %
 NII grew up QoQ.
 Fee income declined YoY in
tandem with lending
 NIM dipped QoQ
0.19
 Lending declined, as expected,
led by the retail & SME
categories
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research estimates
ทิสโก้ไฟแนนเชียลกรุ๊ป - 4
Regional comparisons
Bloomberg
Hang Seng Bank
BOC Hong Kong
DBS group Holding
UOB
Malayan Bank
CIMB Group Holding Bhd
China Citic Bank
China Construction Bank
Bank Rakyat
Bank Mandiri Tbk PT
Bank Central Asia Tbk PT
Bank of Philippines
ICICI Bank Ltd
Axis Bank Ltd
Bank of Ayudhya
Bangkok Bank
KASIKORNBANK
Kiatnakin Bank
Krung Thai Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
Thanachart Capital
TISCO Financial Group
TMB Bank
Simple average
Code
11 HK
2388 HK
DBS SP
UOB SP
MAY MK
CIMB MK
601998 CH
601939 CH
BBRI IJ
BMRI IJ
BBCA IJ
BPI PM
ICICIBC IN
AXSB IN
BAY TB
BBL TB
KBANK TB
KKP TB
KTB TB
SCB TB
TCAP TB
TISCO TB
TMB TB
Price Market Cap
(local curr.)
HKD128.1
HKD26.1
SGD20.0
SGD23.5
MYR8.6
MYR5.2
CNY7.5
CNY6.3
IDR11,750.0
IDR10,825.0
IDR13,000.0
PHP93.0
INR346.6
INR501.6
THB55.50
THB188.00
THB227.00
THB39.75
THB22.40
THB181.50
THB32.25
THB45.50
THB3.00
PER (x)
EPS Growth (%)
(US$
equivalent) 2014E 2015E
31,589
14.6
13.2
35,593
11.2
10.2
37,125
12.4
11.4
28,193
12.0
11.3
22,376
12.1
11.4
12,211
10.5
9.4
49,721
8.3
7.6
208,129
6.7
6.4
23,060
12.1
10.8
20,094
12.8
11.2
25,498
19.4
16.9
8,146
19.9
17.0
32,334
14.7
13.3
19,095
16.2
12.5
12,413
24.1
22.7
10,911
9.5
8.0
16,518
11.8
10.4
1,019
10.8
9.5
9,519
9.2
8.5
18,732
10.9
9.3
1,183
8.2
7.5
1,108
8.6
7.7
3,984
15.7
13.9
12.7
11.3
PER band versus SD (next 12 months)
2014E
49.7
79.6
8.9
6.6
-5.8
-19.5
7.9
7.9
12.9
9.3
16.0
-7.1
23.1
15.3
18.0
4.7
10.6
-29.9
0.2
12.5
-45.8
0.0
44.7
9.6
PBV (x)
ROE (%)
Div Yield (%)
2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E
9.8
2.0
1.9
15.8
15.2
4.3
4.3
11.6
1.5
1.3
15.2
14.9
4.2
4.6
7.3
1.3
1.2
11.3
11.3
3.0
3.2
5.9
1.3
1.2
11.7
12.1
3.2
3.4
5.6
1.4
1.4
13.2
13.5
6.0
6.3
12.0
1.1
1.0
11.8
11.9
3.9
4.4
8.7
1.2
1.1
16.5
17.1
3.2
3.4
5.5
1.1
1.0
18.5
19.9
5.1
5.3
12.2
2.5
2.1
25.0
27.0
2.3
2.5
14.3
2.1
1.8
20.5
20.8
2.2
2.4
14.2
3.5
3.0
22.3
23.4
1.1
1.3
14.2
2.4
2.1
14.5
14.6
1.8
1.9
11.0
n.a.
n.a.
16.3
16.2
1.5
1.7
24.5
2.3
1.9
19.8
18.3
1.0
1.0
6.2
2.5
2.1
10.5
9.1
1.7
1.8
19.7
1.1
1.0
12.2
13.5
4.3
4.8
13.8
1.8
1.7
17.9
18.3
1.5
2.0
12.9
0.9
0.9
8.7
9.2
4.4
5.0
8.8
1.4
1.2
15.7
15.5
4.5
4.7
16.8
2.2
1.9
21.4
21.7
3.3
3.9
10.0
0.8
0.7
9.6
9.5
4.7
5.0
11.8
1.4
1.3
16.5
16.4
4.4
4.8
13.3
1.9
1.8
12.2
12.6
2.2
2.5
11.7
1.7
1.5
15.5
15.7
3.2
3.5
PBV band versus SD (next 12 months)
x
x
18
3.1
16
+2.5 SD = 14.68x
14
2.6
12
+1.5 SD = 12.36x
+0.75 SD = 10.63x
2.1
+1.5 SD = 1.93x
10
LT-average = 8.90x
1.6
LT-average = 1.45x
8
-1.0 SD = 6.59x
1.1
-1.0 SD = 1.14x
-2.0 SD = 0.82x
0.6
-3.0 SD = 0.50x
6
-2.0 SD = 4.28x
4
2
YE03
YE05
YE07
YE09
YE11
YE13
YE15
PER band and share price
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
YE01
0.1
YE01
YE03
YE05
YE07
YE09
YE11
YE13
YE15
PBV band and share price
80
15x
1
13x
11x
9x
7x
5x
2.1x
70
1.7x
60
50
1.4x
40
1.1x
30
0.8x
20
0.5x
10
YE03
YE05
YE07
YE09
YE11
YE13
YE15
Foreign holding
%
0
YE01
YE03
YE05
YE07
YE09
YE11
YE13
YE15
Short selling activities during past four weeks
TISCO
Btm
15
Bank
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
55.9
10
5
0
8/14
9/14
10/14
11/14
12/14
1/15
3/12/14
5/12/14
7/12/14
9/12/14
11/12/14
13/12/14
15/12/14
17/12/14
19/12/14
21/12/14
23/12/14
25/12/14
27/12/14
29/12/14
31/12/14
2/1/15
4/1/15
6/1/15
8/1/15
10/1/15
12/1/15
0
YE01
+2.5 SD = 2.24x
ทิสโก้ไฟแนนเชียลกรุ๊ป - 5
Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited
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Pass
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BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
3 months.
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
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