March 2014 Airbus Global Market forecast: Impact on Air Traffic Management Marc Hamy Head of Air Transport Affairs Airbus SAS Vice President Airbus Global Market Forecast Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth World real GDP and Passenger traffic February 2014 Passenger Traffic Percent growth (year-over-year) 8% +7.2% 6% 4% 2% 0% World real GDP World passenger traffic (ASKs) -2% -4% JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N 2008 Source: IHS Global Insight, OAG, Airbus © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 Emerging markets are leading traffic growth ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution Percent change (year-over-year) Emerging Markets Traffic 16% +12.4% 12% 8% Western Europe Traffic 4% +4.2% 0% US Traffic -4% +3.5% -8% -12% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N 2009 2010 Source: OAG, Airbus © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 Middle Class will probably double increasing the number of people having access to Air Transport Global Middle Class, millions of people 5,211 5,000 4,000 3,000 Other Asia-Pacific North America Europe & CIS 2,228 x2.4 757 3,576 578 3,526 2,000 432 2,038 856 1,000 265 262 253 675 698 675 2012 2022 2032 7,100 7,800 8,400 32% 46% 62% 0 Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus Definition: Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP) © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. World Population % of world population Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 Industry to double as new markets are tapped World annual RPK (trillion) 16 Annual traffic growth to 2020 Airbus GMF 2013 ICAO total traffic 14 5.2% 12 10 8 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years 6 4 2012-2020 5.2% p.a. 2 0 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2022-2032 4.4% p.a. 2027 2032 Asia-Pacific to lead soon RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions) % of 2012 world RPK 20-year growth 29% 5.5% 34% Europe 26% 3.8% 22% North America 25% 3.0% 18% Middle East 8% 7.1% 12% Latin America 5% 6.0% 7% CIS 4% 5.8% 4% Africa 3% 5.1% 3% 0 Asia-Pacific 1,000 2012 traffic Source: Airbus GMF © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2,000 3,000 4,000 2012-2032 traffic 5,000 % of 2032 world RPK Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 In 2012, there were 100 cities with more than one million monthly passengers Cities with more than 1 million monthly O&D passengers, 2012 Source: SABRE, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 In 2032, there will be 230 cities with more than one million monthly pax… Cities with more than 1 million monthly O&D passengers, 2032 Source: SABRE, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Impact on ATM of the forecasted air traffic growth Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 Growth can be accommodated by growth in frequency (more flights), or in capacity (larger aircraft) or both. Growth accommodation in Airbus forecasts Frequency Maximum ATM/airport service level Step 3: increase in Capacity only (larger aircraft) Step 2: increase in both Frequency & Capacity Satisfactory service level Step 1: increase in Frequency only New Route opening Capacity Bubbles proportional to ASKs Source: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 ATM has to address first frequency growth Progressive capacity growth through improved infrastructure and ATM performance enhancement Frequency Traffic saturation Step 3: Better use of existing capacities to reduce delays: - ATFM; - A.CDM. Airspace congestion Step 2: Improve airspace management New routes; Better procedures; Improved ATM system. Step 1: improve infrastructure: Airport congestion New airports; New Runways Bubbles proportional to ASKs © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Capacity Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 ATM has also to address better flight efficiency by delivering better performance through ATM Modernization program More Frequency Or Better Efficiency Improved ATM performance will deliver more capacity but also better efficiency Step 4: ATM modernization programmes to further enhance capacity and improve efficiency Frequency Traffic saturation Step 3: Better use of existing capacities to reduce delays: - ATFM; - A.CDM. Airspace congestion Step 2: Improve airspace management New routes; Better procedures; Improved ATM system. Step 1: improve infrastructure: Airport congestion New airports; New Runways Bubbles proportional to ASKs © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Capacity More Capacity A330 Regional- The Ideal Solution for the Fast Growing Markets ACCM 014/14 January 2014 Alleviating difficulties to create new opportunities Tomorrow situation More Growth creating New Opportunities For the future Today situation Opportunities Air Traffic congestion 2,8 Billion passengers Delays 35000 City pairs served Over costs 3,5% of global GDP Missed connections or flights cancelled $ 2 Trillion Aviation’s global Economic impact More CO² Emissions 56 Million Jobs supported by Aviation (ATAG figures) Difficulties © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Conclusions Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 ATM Modernization key issues Allow more and more people to travel in the world by providing quickly more capacity, especially in fast growing countries Allow better flight performance and reduce costs and delays, especially in countries already having a high density air traffic. Allow a sustainable development of air traffic by contributing to lower CO² emissions and noise reduction. © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013 March 2014 The need to coordinate the efforts from board and ground Better procedures and new operational concepts Improved ATM and Airport performance and capacity Improved aircraft performance and capacity Better airlines operations and increased capacity Better satisfaction of passengers demand Better environment Sustainable development of Air Transport © AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Thank you for your attention
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