December Investor Update

INVESTOR UPDATE
DECEMBER 2014
1
LONG RUN PROFILE
TSX: LRE
Dividend: $0.0175/ share/ month*
Shares Outstanding: 193.5 million
2015 Production Guidance: 35,000 – 36,000 Boe/d
(44% oil + NGLs)
* Starting with January 2015 dividend payable in February
2
CORPORATE STRATEGY
• Provide long-term value to shareholders through a
sustainable dividend model
• Focus on operational efficiency and capital discipline
• Maintain balanced production mix and opportunities
3
BUSINESS PLAN
• Improve our balance sheet through a focused high-grade development
program and selective non-core dispositions
• Execute a focused capital program that preserves our momentum going
forward, both in conventional field development and enhanced oil
recovery
• Provide balanced yield to investors from a long-term sustainable model
• Continue to develop a balanced inventory of properties which provide
flexibility in future planning as well as upside from improved cost
efficiencies, operating efficiencies and enhanced recovery
• Proactive hedging program to mitigate commodity price downside risk
4
2015 CORPORATE GUIDANCE
• Focus on execution of a sustainable
business model
2015 Guidance(1)
• Surplus funds flow applied to debt
Production average (Boe/d)
% oil and NGLs
Funds flow from operations ($ million)(2)(3)
35,000 – 36,000
44%
$200 -$210
Net capital expenditures ($ million)(4)
$165
Dividends ($ million)(5)
$40
Dividend per share (annual)
$0.21
Basic payout ratio(2)(6)
20%
Total
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
sustainability ratio(2)(6)
100%
• Target of 1,000 – 4,000 Boe/d of
divestitures to improve balance sheet
• Support production momentum
through 2015 and into 2016
• Dividend reinvestment plan (“DRIP”)
to be implemented in the first
quarter of 2015
• On-going risk management program
assists in protecting funds flow in
low commodity price environment
2015 guidance has been updated from the preliminary 2015 guidance released in June 2014 in order to reflect the lowering of our commodity price assumptions for 2015.
2015 Guidance as released on December 15, 2014 is based on the following assumptions: WTI US$70.00/Bbl; AECO $3.50/GJ; FX USD/CDN 1.145. June 2014 preliminary
guidance was based on WTI US$92.50/Bbl; AECO $4.22/Mcf; FX USD/CDN 1.1.
See “Non-GAAP Measures” section.
Funds flow calculations are based on average operating costs of $13.00/Boe and average general and administration costs of $2.50/Boe for 2015.
Net capital expenditures are calculated as capital expenditures net of acquisitions and divestitures. No acquisitions or divestitures are currently included in our budget.
Excluding impact of the DRIP.
5
Based on mid-range of funds flow guidance, excluding impact of the DRIP.
ASSET BASE
October 2014 Production (estimated)
Peace River Area
Montney oil
13,850 Boe/d
(~55% Oil & NGLs)
Northern Gas
(Bluesky)
ALBERTA
Edmonton Area
Peace River Area
(Montney)
Deep Basin
Edmonton Area
(Cardium)
(Viking)
Viking oil
8,200 Boe/d
(~60% Oil & NGLs)
Deep Basin
Cardium liquids-rich natural gas
11,150 Boe/d
(~30% Oil & NGLs)
Northern Gas
Shallow decline gas
2,900 Boe/d
(100% Natural gas)
LRE Land
6
2015 DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Capital Expenditures
Well Capital
Capital Expenditures (by area)
$ Millions
$115
Plant & Facilities
≤15
wells
$20
Other*
$30
TOTAL
$165
≤25
wells
Deep Basin
Peace River
Redwater
Other
*Includes Geology & Geophysics, land and health, safety and
environment costs
Peace River
Montney
Deep Basin
Pine Creek Cardium
Deep Basin
Kakwa Cardium
Redwater
Viking
IP 30 (Boe/d)(1)
190
(63% liquids)
334
(58% liquids)
413
(20% liquids)
72
(90% liquids)
IP 365 (Boe/d) (1)
105
(63% liquids)
175
(40% liquids)
265
(20% liquids)
35
(90% liquids)
$2.1
$3.0
$3.4
$1.2
12-month capital efficiency
(Boe/d)
$20,000
$17,200
$12,800
$34,300
Estimated ultimate recovery
(MBoe)
190
(63% liquids)
225
(33% liquids)
365
(20% liquids)
40
(90% liquids)
On-stream cost ($MM)(2)
(1) Estimated initial well rates are based on internal type curve forecasts
(2) Estimated on-stream costs are based on internal historical averages
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ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY (EOR)
Waterflood
Current Waterflood Pilots
• Major oil projects under
waterflood
Area
Formation
Pilot
Start Date
Expansion
Start Date
# of
Injectors
Normandville
Montney
May 1, 2013
December 4,
2014
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This initial phase of
EOR covers five
sections
Girouxville
Montney
October 24,
2013
January
2015
4
This initial phase of
EOR covers 1.5
sections
Redwater
Viking
December 9,
2013
December 8,
2014
5
Comments
Expansion consists
of a second pilot in
the southern
portion of the
Redwater field
• Cost effective reserve
additions
• Increases recovery
• Lowers finding &
development costs
• Uses existing land base
• Moderates production
declines
• Stabilizes production rates
• Source of free funds flow
8
PEACE RIVER MONTNEY
Normandville/Girouxville
Normandville
Normandville
Oil Battery
• 5,000 bopd
• 15 mmcf/d
Donnelly
Gas Plant
• Montney horizontal oil development
• 950m vertical depth
• October estimated production of
11,100 Boe/d (60% oil and NGLs)
• Medium gravity oil (28o API)
• Key infrastructure in place
• Recent oil gathering system expansion
at Girouxville oil battery & gas handling
expansion at Donnelly gas plant
• EOR commenced
• 35 mmcf/d
Girouxville
Oil Battery
• 5,000 bopd
• 15 mmcf/d
Girouxville
Montney Shoreface
LRE Land
LRE Wells
9
DEEP BASIN CARDIUM
Pine Creek/Edson
Pine Creek
13-09 LRE
Battery/Compressor
Station
• 6,500 boe/d
13-19 LRE Multiwell
Oil Battery
• 1,200 bbl/d
• 10.5 mmcf/d (100%)
• Cardium horizontal light oil
development
• 1,800m - 1,900m vertical depth
• Bluesky horizontal liquids-rich natural
gas development
• 2,400m vertical depth
• October estimated production of
7,200 Boe/d (30% oil and NGLs)
• Significant infrastructure in place
16-14 LRE
Compressor Station
• 20 mmcf/d (100%)
01-13 LRE Gas Plant
• 30 mmcf/d (97%)
Talisman Gas Plant
• 400 mmcf/d (2.7%
LRE WI)
Edson
LRE Land
LRE Wells
10
DEEP BASIN
Kakwa/Wapiti
• Cardium horizontal liquids-rich natural
gas
• 1,000m - 1,600m vertical depth
• October estimated production of
3,950 Boe/d (30% liquids)
• Liquids or NGL content of 40-50
Bbl/Mmcf
• First two-well pad at Kakwa currently
undergoing completions, with the
second two-well pad expected to be
completed in early 2015
Wapiti
Kakwa
LRE Land
LRE Wells
11
REDWATER VIKING
07-21 Redwater North
Oil Battery
• 5,000 bbls/d
• 4.0 mmcf/d
T59
Redwater
05-17 Redwater North
Compressor Station
• 4.5 mmcf/d
T57
06-11 Eastgate Gas Plant
• 1.0 mmcf/d
• Viking horizontal oil development
• 700m vertical depth
• October estimated production of 4,700
Boe/d (85% liquids)
• Light oil (38o API)
• Key infrastructure in place
• EOR commenced
05-04 Redwater Central
Oil Battery
• 3,000 bbls/d
• 1.0 mmcf/d
03-31 Redwater Central
Oil Battery
• 2,000 bbls/d
• 1.0 mmcf/d
15-07 Bruderheim North
Oil Battery
• 2,000 bbls/d
• 500 mcf/d
R24
R22
Viking Shoreface
R20W4
LRE Land
15-24 Bruderheim South
Oil Battery
• 3,000 bbls/d
• 2.0 mmcf/d
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BOYER
• Bluesky natural gas
• 200m - 500m vertical depth
• October estimated production of 2,900 Boe/d
(100% natural gas)
• Shallow decline (8%/year)
• 690,000 net acres
• Current drilling density less than 1.5 wells per
section under vertical development. Potential
exists for horizontal development
• 70 MMcf/d of additional operated processing
capacity available
LRE Land
LRE Wells
13
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
RISK MANAGEMENT
Costless Collars
Volume
Pricing
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
2,000 Bbl/day
WTI US $88.00 - $92.50/Bbl
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
2,000 Bbl/day
WTI US $88.00 - $92.60/Bbl
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
1,650 Bbl/day
WTI US $95.00 - $98.80/Bbl
January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015
2,500 Bbl/day
WTI US $95.00 - $97.50/ Bbl
Fixed Price
Volume
Pricing
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
500 Bbl/day
WTI CAD $100.80
October 1, 2014 – April 30, 2015
1,000 Bbl/d
WTI US $85.00/Bbl
October 1, 2014 – April 30, 2015
1,000 Bbl/d
WTI US $90.00/Bbl
Calls
Volume
Pricing
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
500 Bbl/d
WTI US $85.00/Bbl
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
500 Bbl/d
WTI US $100.00/Bbl
January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015
500 Bbl/d
WTI US $85.00/Bbl
Costless Collars
Volume
Pricing
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
19,000 GJ/day
CDN $3.50-$4.02/GJ
October 1, 2014 – March 31, 2015
13,000 GJ/day
CDN $3.50-$3.75/GJ
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014
10,000 GJ/day
CDN $3.50-$3.90/GJ
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2015
5,000 GJ/day
CDN $4.00-$4.50/GJ
October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2015
5,000 GJ/day
CDN $4.00-$4.51/GJ
January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015
20,000 GJ/day
CDN $3.50-$4.00/GJ
January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015
11,000 GJ/day
CDN $3.50-$4.35/GJ
Fixed Price
Volume
Pricing
October 1, 2014 – October 31, 2014
5,000 GJ/day
$3.505/GJ
October 1, 2014 – October 31, 2014
5,000 GJ/day
$3.65/GJ
October 1, 2014 – October 31, 2014
10,000 GJ/day
$3.745/GJ
• Financial hedges mitigate risk
associated with commodity
price volatility
• Improves predictability of funds
flow
• Current oil production hedging:
• ~75% hedged for Q4 2014
• ~50% hedged for Q1 2015
• ~40% hedged for full year
2015
• Current natural gas production
hedging :
• ~55% hedged for Q4 2014
• ~45% hedged Q1 2015
• ~40% hedged for full year
2015
14
2014 CORPORATE GUIDANCE
2014 Updated Guidance (at November 5, 2014)(1)(2)
Production average (Boe/d)
Guidance includes estimated
results from the Deep Basin
acquisition assets for 7 months
and the Crocotta acquisition
assets for 5 months
•
2014 updated guidance assumes
Q4 2014 pricing of WTI US
$85.00/Bbl; AECO $4.00/Mcf; FX
USD:CDN 1.1
31,400
% oil and NGLs
49%
Funds flow from operations(1) ($ million)
$300
Development capital ($ million)
$285
Net capital expenditures(2) ($ million)
$259
Dividends ($ million)
$66
1)
2)
•
See “Non-GAAP Measures” section.
Capital expenditures (development capital) net of acquisitions and divestitures, excluding the Deep Basin and Crocotta acquisitions. Net acquisitions and
divestitures are as at September 30, 2014.
15
TAX POOLS
Maximum Annual Deduction
$ Millions
Capital Cost Allowance (UCC)
Up to 25%
$370
Canadian Oil & Gas Property Expense (COGPE)
Up to 10%
$440
Canadian Development Expense (CDE)
Up to 30%
$630
Up to 100%
$150
Deducted against taxable income
$250
Tax Pools
Canadian Exploration Expense (CEE)
Non-Capital Loss Carry Forward
Estimated Total Corporate Tax Pools (at September 30, 2014)
$1,840
16
CORPORATE INFORMATION
TSX:LRE
Contacts
Bill Andrew
Chair & CEO
(403) 261-6012
Dale Miller
President & COO
(403) 261-6012
Corine Bushfield
Senior Vice President & CFO
(403) 261-6012
Dale Orton
Senior Vice President, Development
(403) 261-6012
Lauren Kimak
Investor Relations
(403) 716-3222
1-888-598-1330
Main:
Toll-Free Investor Line:
Email:
Web:
403-261-6012
1-888-598-1330
[email protected]
www.longrunexploration.com
17
ADVISORIES
Forward Looking Statements:
This document contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively "forward-looking information") within the meaning of
applicable securities laws relating to the Company's plans and other aspects of Long Run's anticipated future operations, management focus, objectives,
corporate strategies and business plan, financial, operating and production results and opportunities including expected effects of recent acquisitions and
financings; October 2014 estimated production for each of the Company's core property areas; 2014 updated guidance including average production,
commodity mix, funds flow from operations, development capital, net capital expenditures and total dividends; 2015 guidance including average
production, commodity mix, funds flow from operations, total dividends and total dividends per share, basic payout ratio and total sustainability ratio; the
Company's plans to reduce debt with additional funds flow; the Company's plans to divest up to 4,000 Boe/d; the Company's plans to institute a dividend
reinvestment plan and the timing thereof; estimated ultimate recoveries; anticipated initial production rates; type curve performance; expected base
decline rates; timing of the commencement of various enhanced oil recovery operations and the anticipated impact on operations; and the availability of tax
pools to be used against income generated by the Company. Forward-looking information typically uses words such as "anticipate", "believe", "project",
"expect", "goal", "plan", "intend" or similar words suggesting future outcomes, statements that actions, events or conditions "may", "would", "could" or
"will" be taken or occur in the future. The forward-looking information is based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Long Run's
management, including expectations and assumptions concerning prevailing commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates, applicable royalty rates and
tax laws; future production rates and estimates of operating costs; performance of existing and future wells; reserve and resource volumes; anticipated
timing and results of capital expenditures; the success obtained in drilling new wells; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out
planned activities; the timing, location and extent of future drilling operations; the state of the economy and the exploration and production business;
results of operations; performance; business prospects and opportunities; the availability and cost of financing, labor and services; the impact of increasing
competition; ability to market oil and natural gas successfully; and Long Run's ability to access capital.
Although the Company believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance
should not be placed on the forward-looking information because Long Run can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking
information addresses future events and conditions, by its very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. The Company's actual results,
performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking information and, accordingly, no assurance
can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking information will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that the
Company will derive there from. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of risks and factors are not exhaustive. Additional information on these and
other factors that could affect our operations or financial results are included in reports on file with applicable securities regulatory authorities and may be
accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com).
Management has included the above summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information provided in this corporate presentation in
order to provide shareholders and potential investors with a more complete perspective on Long Run's future operations and such information may not be
appropriate for other purposes. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this document and Long Run disclaims any intent or
obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, other than as
required by applicable securities laws.
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ADVISORIES
Included herein are estimates of Long Run's 2015 funds flow from operations, total dividends and total dividends per share, basic payout ratio and total
sustainability ratio based on assumptions provided herein and other assumptions utilized in arriving at Long Run's capital budget. Also included herein are
estimates of Long Run's 2014 funds flow from operations and total dividends. To the extent such estimates constitute a financial outlook, they were
approved by management on December 15, 2014 and are included herein to provide readers with an understanding of the effects of the anticipated funds
available to Long Run to fund its capital expenditures, dividends and the effects thereof and readers are cautioned that the information may not be
appropriate for other purposes.
Statements relating to "reserves" are also deemed to be forward looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates
and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the future.
Actual reserve values may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
BOE:
"Boe" means barrel of oil equivalent on the basis of 6 mcf of natural gas to 1 bbl of oil. Boe's may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe
conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value
equivalency at the wellhead. Given the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the
energy equivalency of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl, utilizing a conversion ratio at 6 mcf: 1 Bbl may be misleading as an indication of value.
Initial Production Rates and Type Curves:
Initial production rates disclosed herein may not necessarily be indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. Type curves presented herein are
not necessarily reflective of the performance of future wells.
Non-GAAP Measures:
This document contains terms commonly used in the oil and gas industry, such as funds flow from operations, basic payout ratio and total sustainability
ratio. These terms are not defined by International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and should not be considered an alternative to, or more
meaningful than, cash provided by operating activities or net earnings as determined in accordance with IFRS as an indicator of Long Run's performance.
These measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry and by Long Run to provide shareholders and potential investors with additional information
regarding the Company’s liquidity and its ability to generate funds to finance its operations. Long Run's determination of these measures may not be
comparable to that reported by other companies. Funds flow from operations is calculated as cash flow from operating activities before changes in noncash working capital and abandonment expenditures. Basic payout ratio is calculated by dividing dividends by funds flow from operations. Total
sustainability ratio is defined as net capital expenditures plus dividends divided by funds flow from operations. Long Run has provided information on how
these measures are calculated in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2014 dated November 5,
2014, which is available under the Company’s SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com.
19