Risk in Ecology and Society 生態学と社会のリスク

Risk in Ecology and Society
生態学と社会のリスク
March 20, 2012
Hiroyuki Matsuda (Yokohama Nat’l Univ)
松田裕之（横浜国立大学）
学会賞選考理由 Report from Award Committee
日本語 English 中文
http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2012/ESJaward.pdf
1
Self-evaluation of my research activities
松田裕之自己評価
Mathematical models that develop…
• Evolution theory before adaptive dynamics
進化理論の発展（適応動態論以前）
• ecosystem approach in fisheries management
漁業管理における生態系アプローチ
• Extinction risk assessment in vascular plants
維管束植物の絶滅リスク評価
• Practice in adaptive wildlife management
野生動物の順応的管理の実践
2
My academic career
私の学歴・職歴
I graduated from and got
IAccording
someone
Japanese
have changed
Government
recommended
jobs
to
a
professor’s
Doctoral
degree
in of
Kyoto
IEmployees
moved
to the
lab
frequently.
me
to
apply
were
Just
to
Kyushu
after
restricted
Univ.
advise,
I
resigned
my
job
University.
Mathematical
Ecology
inin
getting
But
to
move
20
years
DSc.,
their
ago
I
job,
got
Fisheries
a
including
job
notsupervisor,
to sayInstitute,
the next
job.I1
My
Ei Teramoto,
Fisheries
and
Nippon
Institute
national
Medical
university
“prevented”
School
from
month
after
I
became
anof
was
a
physicist,
student
became
fisheries
and
where
changing
professors
Dr.
staff
Kawasaki
without
to
univ
permiscoeven
Assoc.
Prof.
inNovel
Kyushu
Univ.
the
Japanese
Prize
marine
ecologist.
worked
he
worked
to
make
for
>10yrs
an
IT
there.
tool.
sion of employer. 割愛願
winner, Hideki Yukawa
• 1985 Doctor of Science, Kyoto Univ.
supervisor Ei Teramoto (Yukawa School)
• 1985 Research Technician (Nippon Medical School)
• 1986 Res. Assoc. (日本医科大学情報処理室)
• 1989 Nat’l Res. Inst. Fisheries Sci. 中央水産研究所
• 1991 Aug.-1992 Aug. Visiting Sci., Univ. of Minnesota
• 1993 Jan. 1st, Resign of Japan Fisheries Agency
• I had no job for 30 days.
• 1993 Feb. 1st, Assoc. Prof., Kyushu Univ.
• 1996 Assoc. Prof. Ocean Res. Inst. Univ. of Tokyo
• 2003 Prof. Yokohama National Univ.
Please ask me how to resign job! 辞表の書き方教えます
3
私の学位論文 Doctor thesis
• Dr. Yoh Iwasa
巌佐庸博士
• Application of Optimal
strategy to life history
最適戦略の適用
• Prof. Ei Teramoto
寺本英教授
• Life is not optimal.
生物はいい加減
に生きている
• Describe evolution by dynamic
models力学モデルで進化を記述
• “Evolutionarily stable strategies for
predator switching”
Our supervisor, Ei
Yoh is 5 yrs older than me.
Teramoto,
Second,
I modeled
disliked
He is outstanding and did
“optimality”.
dynamical
systems that
elegant research using
He just said
describe
evolution
to me,
optimal theory in life
“Yoroshii (almost
(invasion
plots). good)”. I
history strategy. First I
misunderstood
Ei
said, “very good”.
this is
followed his approach.
encouragement.
4
found that
condition of
IIIPeter
simply
compared
realized,
reviewed
paradigm
previous
shift
Just
before
I visited
Peter
ESS
is
all
negative
diagonal
condition
between
Nash
Mr. Harada,
related
must
pay
studies.
many
2 yrseffort
I agreed
yonger
and
he
Abrams,
he
disagreed.
But
elements
of
the
Jacobian
solution
inin
game
theory
than
is
be
the
tolerant
me,
top
author.
against
ouratlab
But
many
our
when
I
arrived
matrix,
this
is
neither
and
dynamic
stability,
using
explained
paper
bashings.
wasBut
us
rejected
to
now,
detail
this
>4
of
Minnesota,
he
said,
“you
necessary
nor
sufficient
an
“evolutionary
dynamic
quantitative
times.
paper
isPeter
one
said,
genetic
ofmistake.”
most
he’d
model.
cited
taught
me
my
condition
of
dynamical
model”
never experienced
papers
by me and Peter.
it.
stability
 x   g x
   
 y   0
 2F
 2
 x
  2G

 xy
Evolutionarily
Stable
Convergence
Stable
Evolutionarily unstable fitness maxima
進化的に不安定な適応度最大点
Abrams, Matsuda, Harada (1992) Evol. Ecol.
0  F ( x, y) / x 


g y  G( y, x) / y 
2F 

xy   a b 


 2G   c d 

y 2 
 * a  0


 *  d  0
ad 0
ad  bc  0
• I pointed out ESS is neither
necessary nor sufficient
condition of dynamical stability.
• Harada first understood
Roughgarden’s (Iwasa’s)
quantitative genetic model.
• Abrams reviewed our historical
status (referred to convergence
stability)
• Our paper was rejected 5 times!
Quickly accepted paper is not really new.
A new paradigm is often criticized. 5
寺本Teramoto
寺
本
研
川崎Kawasaki
Goel
高田Takada
原田Harada
東Higashi
巌佐Iwasa
難波Namba
Teramoto Lab.
梯Kakehashi
鈴木Suzuki
重定Shigesada
6
Thanks to many co-authors
恵まれた共著者に感謝
I may be characterized by
many coauthors but ave. no.
of coauthors is 3.5/article.
I changed my research field
and many people helped me.
20: Abrams PA and I wrote 20 articles together.
Supervisors
8: Kar TK, Kotani小谷浩示, Kaji梶光一,
Lab colleagues
6: Katsukawa勝川俊雄, Makino牧野光琢,
Students/Postdocs
5: Hori堀道雄, Matsumiya松宮義晴, Saitoh齊藤隆, Uno宇野裕之,
4: Amemiya雨宮隆, Hirakawa平川浩文, Kakinaka柿中, Rossberg AG,
Iwasaki岩崎雄一, Kagaya加賀谷隆,
3: Asano浅野謙二, Harada原田泰志, Itoh伊藤公紀, Iwasa巌佐庸,
Takenaka竹中靖人, Takeuchi竹内康博, Tamada玉田克己, Yahara矢原徹一,
Yamamura山村光司
2: Fukase深瀬, Kishida岸田達, Kurumada車田, Mitani三谷勇, Mori森光代,
Morita森田健太郎, Nakajima中嶋美冬, Namba難波利幸, Sakurai桜井泰
憲, Seno瀬野裕美, Shimada嶋田正和 Uozumi魚住雄二, Wada和田時夫,
Katsukawa勝川木綿
No. coauthors=107
1: 67 coauthors
7
Nominal no.=238
Key scientists who led me new worlds
私を新たな世界に導いた方々
• Ei Teramoto, Nanako Shigesada, Toshiyuki
Namba encouraged dynamic theory 寺本英･
重定南奈子・難波利幸＝力学的世界観
• I thank Peter Abrams!
• N. Yamamura 山村則男 connected me with M. Hori 堀道雄
– Fish laterality dimorphism and foodweb structure
•
•
•
•
Y. Matsumiya 松宮義晴 led me Fisheries
Y. Tsukio月尾嘉男 led me Aichi EXPO and local schools月尾塾
T. Yahara矢原徹一invited me Red-list & Env. Impact Assess.
K. Kaji 梶光一 invited me Wildlife management
& Shiretoko world heritage.
• J. Nakanishi 中西準子 invited me Risk Science
• T. Sato 佐藤哲 invited me WWF and 地域環境学
8
Basic Science & Applied Science
• BS基礎科学 = seek new, counterintuitive theorem
誰も信じないような新たな定理を見つける
• AS応用科学 = Seek feasible solutions even not
new. 奇をてらわず現場に役立つ解を見つける
• 目から鱗を落とす＞煙に巻く
Eye opening (Seek simplicity, but distrust it).
> Seek complexity, and trust it.
• 科学者は慎重になれ。Scientists should commit
only if it is definitely better than silence because
environmental science is still immature and the
“best” solution depends on stakeholders.
9
IOne
haveofareaction
Jpn & Eng
is by
blogs, just
use my past emails.
Rosenzweig,
Editor of
I sent
EER.
newmade
He
year “citizen’s
message page”
to 700in
in
Jpn &
EER
web
80 site,
people
thein1stEng every
year.
message
is mine.
公開書簡, Open Emails and
年頭挨拶(NY message) to 700 Jpn+80 Eng
…
• These help me to link with international scientists and
policy makers 公開書簡を通じて世界に訴える
10

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