PROJEKTWOCHE LANDSCHAFTSENTWICKLUNG FS 2015 Aufgabe 2: Gruppenarbeit „Visionieren / Backcast“ Das folgende Paper dient als Grundlage für die Übung 2 („Visionieren / Backcast“) und muss vorgängig studiert werden. Zentral sind die darin enthaltenen Szenarien. Walz, A., F. Brand, J. Braendle, S. Briner, C. Elkin, C. Hirschi, H. Lischke, D. Schmatz and D. Lang. 2013. Experience from customising IPCC scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513001820# In der Vorlesung haben Sie Beispiele von „participatory backcasting“-Methoden kennengelernt. Für diese Übung gilt: die Szenarien werden als exogen und unveränderlich betrachtet. D.h. in einem „VorwärtsSzenario“ werden die Ergebnisse variiert; in einem Backcast – welches in dieser Übung erstellt werden soll werden die Ausprägungen der Variablen verändert. Erstellen Sie nun für eines der Szenarien als Zukunftsbild aus dem oben genannten Paper einen „Backcast“, d.h. erläutern Sie einen Weg zur Erreichung des Zukunftsbildes. Vorgehen: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Wählen Sie ein Zukunftsbild aus. Zeigen Sie die Schwierigkeiten, die bewältigt werden müssen und die Möglichkeiten, die sich bieten, um den zukünftigen Zustand (das Szenarium) zu erreichen. Definieren Sie Milestones und die Eintretenszeitpunkte, um das Szenarium zu erreichen. Identifizieren Sie (Politik-)Massnahmen und spezifizieren Sie Akteure, welche die Massnahmen unterstützen, davon profitieren oder sich den Massnahmen in den Weg stellen. Kreieren Sie eine „Storyline“ der Veränderungen, um das Szenarium zu erreichen. Abgabe: Ihre Dokumentation enthält Milestones inkl. Angaben zum Zeitpunkt, Massnahmen und eine Storyline (beschreibender Text), in der Sie die Milestones und Massnahmen einordnen und sinnvoll erläutern (z.B. wie die unterschiedlichen Akteure zu den Massnahmen Stellung nehmen oder welche Schwierigkeiten auftreten). Abgabezeitpunkt: 12.04.2015 1 Grundlagen: Das finale Set der Zukunftsbilder für das Jahr 2050. Jedes Set repräsentiert eine spezifische Kombination der möglichen Ausprägungen. Growth & Regional centres Green Growth Local Sustainability convergence A1B: A more integrated A2: A more divided world. B1: A world more B2: A world more divided, Global Trends world. Rapid economic growth. A global population reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. Quick spread of new and efficient technologies. Income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. A1B = Balanced emphasis on all energy sources. Independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. but more ecologically friendly. Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2. Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Intermediate levels of economic development.Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1. A2: +5.7 °C increase in summer temperature, 4.6 °C increase in winter temperature 7.5 Mio integrated, and more ecologically friendly. Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. Emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. B1: +3.8 °C increase in summer temperature, + 2.9 °C increase in winter temperature. 9.5 Mio A1B: + 5.6 °C increase in summer temperature, +5.1 °C incrase in winter temperature 9.5 Mio Migration within CH Accessibility of mountain regions Tourism development Natural resource management Environmental awareness Consumption patterns Economic growth Migration to agglomeration Regional centres Amenity migration Regional centres High increase High increase Moderate increase No increase Exploitive Exploitive Sustainable Sustainable Exploitive Exploitive Sustainable Sustainable Technical solutions No interest Technical solutions Low-tech solutions Global production Regional products Certified products Regional products High increase Moderate increase High increase Moderate increase Agricultural markets Wood prices Decline in prices High increase in prices Small increase in prices High increase in prices Stable prices Stable prices Increase in prices Increase in prices Energy consumption Technol. innovation in agriculture Energy policy Stable consumption Rising consumptions Stable consumption Stable consumption High innovation rate Low innovation rate High innovation rate Low innovation rate New priorities Business as usual New priorities 2000-Watt society Nature conservation Climate policy Reduction Reduction Extension Extension Low emission reduction aims Laisser-faire Low reduction Strong reduction Strong reduction Laisser-faire Restrictive Restrictive Liberalisation Protection Greening Greening Climate Population CH Spatial planning policy Agricultural policy B1: +3.8 °C increase in summer temperature, + 2.9 °C increase in winter temperature. 7.5 Mio Slightly adapted storylines of the four selected scenarios representing the conditions for future adapted management of ecosystem services in Swiss mountain regions. Growth & convergence Global development is characterised by very rapid economic growth with a convergence among regions and climate change according to the A1B scenario of the IPCC*. Also in Switzerland economic growth is high, and natural resource management is exploitive. As road and rail networks are improved, the accessibility of remote and mountain regions has increased strongly within Switzerland, and in combination with rather loose spatial planning policy, this encourages exploitive tourism. The agglomerations have grown, while remote mountain 2 regions undergo declined in population. Environmental awareness focuses on technical solutions, and efforts in nature conservation are reduced. Agricultural policy is liberal and technological innovation in agriculture is high. Mainly globally produced goods are consumed and end-user prices of agricultural products are low. Energy consumption remained on a 2010 level, and wood prices are stable. The federal state commits itself only to rather low emission reduction, but energy policy pushes new priorities in energy efficiency and climate protection. Regional centres Global development is characterised by a focus on self-reliance and preservation of local identities and climate change according to the A2 scenario of the IPCC*. In Switzerland economic growth is moderate, and natural resource management is exploitive. As road and rail networks are improved, the accessibility of remote and mountain regions increased strongly within Switzerland, and in combination with rather loose spatial planning policy, this encourages rather exploitive tourism. Regional centres also within mountain regions have grown, and there is a revival of mountain regions. Environmental awareness is generally low, and efforts in nature conservation were reduced. Swiss agricultural markets are protected, and innovation in agriculture is low. Mainly regionally produced goods are consumed, and end-user prices for agricultural products increase considerably. Energy consumption rose due to the lack of innovative technology, and wood prices are stable. The federal state commits itself to rather low emission reduction, and energy policy follows business-as-usual. Green Growth Global development is characterised by an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability and climate change according to the B1 scenario of the IPCC*. In Switzerland economic growth is high with an increasing focus on service and information economies, and natural resource management can be sustainable. The accessibility of remote and mountain regions increased moderately within Switzerland, and spatial planning policy is restrictive. Tourism became more regionally rooted and sustainable. The mountain regions are popular as retreats where many people regularly spend their weekends. Environmental awareness builds on technological solutions, and efforts in nature conservation were extended. The Swiss agricultural policy promotes “green” production, and technological innovation in agriculture is high. The consumption of organically grown goods from all over the world is high, and end-user prices for agricultural products increased moderately. Energy consumption was stable, and due to a rising consumption in bio fuel, wood prices increased, too. The federal state commits itself to high emission reduction, and energy policy pushes new priorities in energy efficiency and climate protection. Local Sustainability Global development is characterised by increasing focus on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability and climate change according to the B2 scenario of the IPCC*. In Switzerland economic growth is moderate, and natural resource management is sustainable. The accessibility of remote and mountain regions remained stable within Switzerland and spatial planning policy is restrictive. Tourism became more regionally rooted and sustainable. Regional centres also within mountain regions have grown and there is a revival of mountain regions. Environmental awareness promotes low-tech solutions, and efforts in nature conservation were extended. The Swiss agricultural policy promotes “green” production, but technological innovation is low. Mainly regionally produced goods are consumed, and end-user prices for agricultural products increased considerably. Energy consumption was stable, and due to an increase in bio fuel, wood prices increased, too. The federal state commits itself to rather high emission reduction, and energy policy follows the aim of a 2000-watt society. Bewertungskriterien „Backcast Storyline“: Handelt es sich um ein Backcast? Wird Zukunftsbild als exogen gegeben betrachtet? Ist die Abgabe in sich konsistent? Sind die Milestones sinnvoll integriert? Werden konkrete Massnahmen nachvollziehbar integriert? Sind Layout und Stil angemessen? Abgabe bis 12.04.2015 per Email an: [email protected] Zürich, 13. März 2015 EC/SER 3
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