2014 年 4 月 11 日
GOAL: 全球资产投资机会定位
证券研究报告
抓住增长反弹的投资机遇
宏观前景展望：美国和中国的经济增长改善
Anders Nielsen
我们预计二季度美国和中国经济增长将从一季度的疲软态势中得到改善，并成为
短期内市场增长的主要推动因素。除此之外，我们仍预计发达市场增长进一步走
强、债券收益率上升以及新兴市场失衡局面的持续调整将成为今年宏观面的主要
特征。
彼得·欧品海默
+44(20)7552-5782 [email protected]
高盛国际
杰夫·可瑞
我们对各类别资产的看法以及投资题材
股票：我们维持对 3 个月和 12 个月的高配建议。我们对 3 个月高配建议的信心改
善，对 12 个月建议的信心进一步增强，我们预计 12 个月内盈利增长改善将推动
回报。
大宗商品：我们认为黄金和铁矿石面临显著下行空间，而且今年晚些时候农产品
也将面临这一局面。我们对石油和铜的看法相对平淡，但风险倾向于下行。我们
预计特殊风险仍是今夏大宗商品市场的重要推动因素。我们维持对 3 个月的标配
建议以及对 12 个月的低配建议。
企业债券：我们预计寻求收益率的环境依然强劲，并推动未来 12 个月息差小幅收
窄。我们维持标配建议。经风险调整后，我们仍较高收益率债券息差而看好投资
级债券息差。
政府债券：我们维持低配建议。债券收益率目前低于我们的预测，而且我们预计
收益率将随美国增长改善、美联储转而采取定性前瞻指引以及欧洲央行针对资产
支持证券可能出台进一步放松政策而有所上升。
投资题材：我们建议投资于周期性复苏以及向股东回报现金的企业。请参阅第 6
页。
回报率预测及配置建议
New Recommendation
3‐Month Horizon
12‐Month Horizon
Asset Class
Return* Weight
Asset Class
Return*
Equities
1.9 % OW
Equities
12.2 %
Cash
0.1
N
5 yr. Corporate Bonds
‐0.2
5 yr. Corporate Bonds
‐0.8
N
Cash
0.2
Commodities
‐2.0
N
Commodities
‐4.5
10 yr. Gov. Bonds
‐3.2
UW
10 yr. Gov. Bonds
‐5.1
+44(20)7552-3000 [email protected]
高盛国际
(212) 357-6801 [email protected]
高盛集团
Francesco Garzarelli
+44(20)7774-5078 [email protected]
高盛国际
Charles P. Himmelberg
(917) 343-3218 [email protected]
高盛集团
高思庭
(212) 902-6781 [email protected]
高盛集团
wwwww1
Fiona Lake
+852-2978-6088 [email protected]
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司
Kathy Matsui
+81(3)6437-9950 [email protected]
高盛证券株式会社
慕天辉, CFA
Weight
OW
N
N
UW
UW
+852-2978-1328 [email protected]
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司
Aleksandar Timcenko
(212) 357-7628 [email protected]
高盛集团
* Return forecasts assume full currency hedging
多米尼克·威尔逊
资料来源：高盛全球投资研究
(212) 902-5924 [email protected]
高盛集团
高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本
报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。
高盛集团
全球投资研究
What’s new?
3
Our macro outlook and allocation
4
Investing in our themes
6
Our forecasts
7
Equities: Increased conviction in our near-term overweight
8
Our sector views
11
Commodities: Idiosyncratic shocks drive declining correlation
13
Energy
14
Industrial metals
15
Precious metals
15
Agriculture
16
Credit: Spreads grind tighter on growth pickup and dovish policy
17
Government Bonds: Underweight on a 3- and 12-month horizon
20
FX: Decisively dollar bullish and broad euro bearish
22
How we construct our asset classes
25
Disclosure Appendix
27
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In summary
Our asset allocation is unchanged. Since the last GOAL we have revised our forecasts for
the EUR/$ exchange rate and we now expect the cross to weaken to 1.30 over 12 months
as US growth improves in coming quarters while European growth remains relatively
stable. Within equities we have also changed our index forecasts and we now upgrade
Asia ex-Japan to neutral and downgrade Japan to neutral over 3 months. Our conviction in
our 3-month equity overweight has improved, but it is still stronger over 12 months.
Growth rebound
We expect a rebound in growth momentum to be the key driver of markets in the near term. US
growth should improve as weather and inventory effects are coming out of the data, and our
current activity indicator is already showing clear signs of this. It has risen from slightly below 2%
in January and February to a preliminary reading for March of 3.6%. In China financial conditions
have eased and there are now signs of modest pro-growth policy support as well (see our March
21 What to expect from China’s policy loosening, for a discussion of policy initiatives). On the
back of this, we expect growth to improve from a very weak Q1 starting in the second quarter.
Monetary policy
Considering the latest communication and meeting outcomes from the Fed and the ECB, we
continue to expect the first Fed hike to occur only by early 2016 and we remain of the view that
the probability of aggressive large scale asset purchases (particularly of sovereign bonds) by the
ECB is relatively low. For the Fed, we think the committee as a whole expects the first hike in the
second half of 2015, but in our view inflation, which we expect to be lower than the FOMC
forecasts, will not warrant a hike until 2016. That said, risks around our Fed funds rate forecasts
are now skewed towards an earlier hike. In Europe, we continue to expect the ECB to keep
EONIA at current low levels until early 2016 with further liquidity support being a possible tool if
necessary. A small downward shift in the ECB interest rate corridor is also an option, although not
our central expectation. More aggressive easing is certainly possible – we view private assets
purchases as the most likely option - if inflation is ‘low’ for a ‘too prolonged’ period of time. But, on
our forecast, while low, inflation does not trigger an aggressive ECB response.
The EM rally
Since our last GOAL report we have seen a sharp rotation towards better performance of EMrelated assets. We think this could carry on in the near term as global growth momentum in
general and Chinese growth in particular improves. We have revised our 3-and 6-month targets
for Asia ex-Japan equities higher and now upgrade it to neutral. However, Asia ex-Japan is the
more attractive part of EM and longer term there is still more need for structural adjustment in a
number of EM economies. The recent strengthening of currencies of the EM’s with the largest
imbalances are not helping that process and we still see DM as more attractive than EM over the
longer term
An update on risks
1) Growth rebound: The risk that the growth rebound that we forecast does not materialize is
looking smaller with the latest data and Chinese policy changes. 2) Rates: Even though our US
monetary policy view remains dovish, we continue to expect the market to price a higher term
premium as growth picks up in an environment where the shift to more qualitative forward
guidance puts a less firm anchor on short-dated rates expectations. This should also support
higher longer-dated yields and is part of the reason for our 3-month underweight in government
bonds. At some point this is likely to lead to volatility in equity markets and headwinds to EM
assets. But, the timing is uncertain and the magnitude is likely to be much smaller than last
summer as longer-dated yields are now higher. 3) Ukraine: We still expect the impact of the
situation in Ukraine on global markets to be limited. But, further escalation could change this by
broadening the economic effects to larger parts of Central and Eastern Europe, which in turn
would lead to higher knock-on impacts elsewhere. Escalation would also likely lead to higher
market pricing of risk premia for geopolitical risks more generally. We currently see this as the
largest tail risk to our allocation. 4) Valuation: We still worry that equities do not price much
cushion for unexpected events.
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Macro outlook
We expect US growth to improve through the rest of the year from the weakness in 1Q,
and for Euro area growth to rise moderately further. In China we expect growth to improve
significantly in the second quarter. We remain concerned about the need for structural
adjustments in some EM economies.
In the US, the weakness in data is in the process of turning and we expect a sharp improvement
in growth to 3% qoq annualized in the second quarter. Beyond these near-term dynamics, we see
higher consumption growth, a smaller fiscal drag and a higher contribution to growth from
investments as the key drivers of a more sustained shift to above trend growth for the rest of the
year.
For the Euro area, data have been in line with our forecasts. We expect annual growth to
improve by 1.6pp this year exceeding the 0.8pp improvement in the US. Given the weak starting
point, this leaves absolute levels of growth subdued as deleveraging continues albeit at a slower
pace. Most of the acceleration in GDP in now behind us and we expect only relatively moderate
increases in sequential quarterly growth from here. We see improving domestic demand in
Germany, lower fiscal drag in the periphery and better exports as global growth improves as the
main drivers of the better growth picture for the Euro area.
In China growth was very weak in the first quarter and we have revised our 1Q growth forecast
down to 5.0% qoq annualized since our last GOAL. But, as discussed above, we now see signs
of improving DM growth and policy measures that we expect to support substantially stronger
growth in the second quarter. Beyond this immediate rebound, we expect the Chinese economy
to continue to be characterized by an ongoing balancing process between reforms to support
sustainable growth in the long term and the need to limit the near-term impact on growth of these
reforms. We expect fiscal policy to remain supportive of growth but in light of structural concerns,
monetary policy is likely to stay neutral. We expect growth for the rest of the year to be sustained
by an end to current inventory destocking, an improving external environment and a normalization
of consumption growth following the latest round of anti-corruption measures. We expect a
decline in the growth contribution from fixed asset investment which is likely to be held back to
some degree by continued efforts to slow credit growth. Uncertainty around these forecasts
remains large as the difficult rebalancing process continues.
Performance
In our last GOAL report, we maintained our equity overweight over both 3 and 12 months and our
underweight in government bonds and commodities over 12 months. We downgraded
government bonds to underweight over 3 months and cash to neutral. Since then equities have
returned 2.5% outperforming the 0.0% return on government bonds.
Exhibit 1: Performance since last GOAL and our new recommended allocations
Performance since last GOAL**
3‐Month Rec.
Asset Class
in last Goal
Performance
Equities
OW
2.5 %
Commodities
N
2.8
5 yr. Corporate Bonds
N
0.8
Cash
N
0.0
10 yr. Gov. Bonds
UW
0.0
* Return forecasts assume full currency hedging
**Performance since last GOAL assuming full currency hedging
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Our allocation
New Recommendation
3‐Month Horizon
12‐Month Horizon
Asset Class
Return* Weight
Asset Class
Return*
Equities
1.9 % OW
Equities
12.2 %
Cash
0.1
N
5 yr. Corporate Bonds
‐0.2
5 yr. Corporate Bonds
‐0.8
N
Cash
0.2
Commodities
‐2.0
N
Commodities
‐4.5
10 yr. Gov. Bonds
‐3.2
UW
10 yr. Gov. Bonds
‐5.1
Weight
OW
N
N
UW
UW
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2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
We maintain our current allocation with an overweight in equities over both 3 and 12
months balanced with an underweight in government bonds over both horizons and an
underweight in commodities over 12 months.
www.jztzw.net
The longer-term outlook for equities remains strong in our view. We expect good performance
over the next few years as economic growth improves, driving strong earnings growth and a
decline in risk premia. We expect earnings growth to take over from multiple expansion as a
driver of returns, and the decline in risk premia to mostly be offset by a rise in underlying
www.jztzw.net government
www.jztzw.net
bond yields.www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
Our conviction in our 3 months overweight has improved as there are now clearer signs of the
growth rebound that we expected. We see the tail risks from the situation in Ukraine and the
potential for a negative impact from higher bond yields as the largest risks to this view.
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
Regionally we maintain our 12-month allocation of being overweight Japan and Europe, neutral Asia
ex-Japan and underweight the US, in line with our expectations for earnings growth. Over 3 months,
we upgrade Asia ex-Japan to neutral on the better growth outlook for China, but our conviction here
is low due to the longer
term structural concerns.
We downgrade
Japan to neutral after
the strong
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www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
performance since our last GOAL report and due to a lack of clear near term catalysts. We maintain
our 3 month overweight in Europe and our 3 month underweight in the US.
www.
www.jztzw.net
We stay underweight government bonds over both 3 and 12 months. Bond yields are now below
中国价值投资网
最多、最好用研究报告 服务商
our forecasts and we expect them to increase on the back of better US growth, the Feds’ shift to
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.
qualitative forward guidance
and possiblewww.jztzw.net
further easing by thewww.jztzw.net
ECB involving support
to ABS.
In corporate credit, we think the search for yield will remain strong in an environment of better
growth, low inflation, lower macro risks and still accommodative monetary policy. We think
spreads will continue to tighten very moderately over the rest of the year. We continue to think that
IG spreads at the margin look better than HY on a risk-adjusted basis. Regionally we are neutral
between the US and Europe and in both regions we continue to prefer financials over non-financials.
commodities we seewww.jztzw.net
significant downside: 1)
in gold, due to the current
overshoot in prices
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net Inwww.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
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www.jztzw.
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relative to current real interest rates and pressures building from future increases in real interest
rates; 2) in iron ore due to stronger supply; and 3) later in the year also in the agricultural complex
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
as normal weather conditions would lead to further increases in already high inventories. Our
outlook for oil and copper is relatively flat but risks are to the downside. In the case of oil a faster
decline in geopolitical risks than we expect could lead to more supply and lower prices than we
forecast. For copper, an unwind of the metal tied up in financing deals could lead to a significant
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net extra
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
supply of copper into
global markets. In this
scenario we estimate
that copper could findwww.jztzw.
cost support at c.$5000-$5500/t. The idiosyncratic events this year have increased stresses in a
number of commodity markets, making these markets more vulnerable to idiosyncratic shocks
over the summer. We stay neutral over 3 months and underweight over 12 months.
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
全球投资研究
5
Cyclical recovery
To benefit from the recovery in growth, we would position in stocks with high operational gearing,
exposure to developed markets or both. We have active recommendations to leverage this view
across the four regions that we look at. We see the reflation story in Japan as another angle on
this theme. In government bond markets we are now outright short German bonds and continue
to be long Japanese break-even inflation.
Exhibit 2: Our recommendations position for a cyclical recovery…
Cyclical recovery
Equity
US companies with high operational leverage (GSTHOPHI) vs. US companies with low operational leverage (GSTHO
US stocks we expect to benefit from higher rates (GSTHUSTY) vs. S&P 500
Long DAX vs. Stoxx 600
Operationally geared DM exposed European companies (GSSTDMGR) vs. Stoxx 600
Asian global cyclicals (GSSZMSGC) vs. Asian asset sensitive financials (GSSZMSFA)
Asia ex‐Japan stocks with high sales exposure to Europe
China cyclical recovery basket
Japanese capex growth beneficiaries (GSJPCPEX)
Japanese domestic reflation basket (GSJPREFL)
Wavefront US Consumer Growth basket (GSWBCOGA) Large cap banks in the US, Europe and Japan, with Equal weights in BKX, SX7E and TPNBNK
Gov
Bonds
10y Japanese break‐even inflation (long 10y JGBis vs. 10y JGBs).
Short Euro ‐ Bund Jun 14 future (RXM4)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Shareholder return
As risk aversion moderates we expect companies to put cash to work. Given regional differences
in return policies, we have developed different strategies for the different regions to capture this,
but we like the theme in both the US, Europe and Japan.
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Exhibit 3: ...and companies using cash for shareholder returns
Shareholder return
Equity
US companies with high trailing buy‐back yield relative to their sector (GSTHREPO) vs. S&P 500.
European companies with high dividend yields and growth (GSSTHIDY) vs. Stoxx Europe 600
Japanese total shareholder yield stocks
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Other strategies
We are long the US Dollar vs. the Canadian Dollar.
Exhibit 4: Other trade recommendations
Other trades
X‐
FX
asset
S&P 500 Dec 14 Future funded out of short AUD/USD Dec 14 future
Long USDCAD
Credit
Sell two May 21 CDX IG22 payers and one receiver, both struck at 62.5 bps
Sell protection on the 7‐year CDX IG Series 21 junior mezzanine tranche
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 5: Our forecasts across asset classes
Return in % over last
12 m
3 m
1 m
Current
Level
3 m
Forecasts
6 m
12 m
Unit
Equities
S&P 500 ($)
Stoxx Europe 600 (€)
MSCI Asia‐Pacific Ex‐Japan ($)
Topix (¥)
21.9
20.4
7.3
6.5
2.4
2.9
6.5
‐10.4
‐0.1
1.0
3.3
‐6.1
1872
335
482
1150
1850
350
480
1200
1875
360
490
1300
1950
375
520
1450
Index
Index
Index
Index
10 Year Government Bond Yields
US
Germany
UK
Japan
‐3.8
0.4
‐3.4
1.0
2.7
3.6
2.7
1.1
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.1
2.70
1.56
2.70
0.62
3.00
2.10
3.05
0.90
3.15
2.15
3.15
0.95
3.40
2.45
3.35
1.05
%
%
%
%
5 year credit spreads*
iBoxx USD
BAML HY Master Index II
iBoxx EUR
0.8
7.2
3.8
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.4
0.7
0.5
85
372
117
87
367
116
83
362
114
78
345
110
Bp
Bp
Bp
11.4
7.8
3.1
‐13.2
‐12.3
‐18.0
‐9.8
30.1
‐8.3
13.9
2.9
14.9
‐7.9
4.0
6.2
13.8
19.1
18.8
1.3
‐0.2
0.3
‐2.4
4.7
‐2.4
3.1
2.8
3.0
104
108
4.59
6617
1858
1306
669
1478
502
96.00
105.00
4.50
7000
1700
1215
610
1400
450
95.00
105.00
4.25
6600
1700
1150
560
1050
400
90.00
100.00
4.00
6200
1750
1050
575
1050
400
5.5
2.9
1.7
‐2.8
‐0.4
‐1.5
1.39
102
1.38
103
1.34
107
1.30
110
Commodities
WTI
Brent
Nymex Nat. Gas
Copper
Aluminium
Gold
Wheat
Soybeans
Corn
$/bbl
$/bbl
$/mmBtu
$/mt
$/mt
$/troy oz
Cent/bu
Cent/bu
Cent/bu
FX
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
* We show performance for credit in total return terms, but current level and forecasts are for spreads
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 6: US GDP growth vs. our CAI
Exhibit 7: Euro area GDP growth vs. our CAI
QoQ GDP Growth Forecasts (% Annualised)
Q1‐14 Q2‐14 Q3 ‐14 Q4‐14 Q1‐15 Q2‐15 Q3‐15 Q4‐15
1.5
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
6
%
5
4
6
Annualised QoQ GDP Growth
5
GS Forecast
4
CAI
QoQ GDP Growth Forecasts (% Annualised)
Q1‐14 Q2‐14 Q3 ‐14 Q4‐14 Q1‐15 Q2‐15 Q3‐15 Q4‐15
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
%
Annualised QoQ GDP Growth
GS Forecast
3
3
CAI
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
-3
Dec-10
Dec-14
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 8: Our forecasts for global economic growth vs. consensus
% yoy
USA
2012
2.8
2013E
2015E
2016E
GS
GS
2014E
Consensus*
GS
GS
2017E
GS
1.9
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.0
3.0
Japan
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.4
Euro Area
-0.6
-0.4
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.6
7.4
China
7.7
7.7
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.6
BRICs
5.9
6.0
5.7
5.7
6.3
6.6
6.7
Advanced
Economies
1.4
1.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.5
World
3.1
2.9
3.4
3.3
3.9
4.1
4.2
* Consensus Economics April 2014
Source: Consensus Economics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
We maintain our overweight in equities over both 3 and 12 months. The longer-term case for equities remains
strong in our view: we expect further improvements in global growth, healthy earnings growth and the still very
high risk premia across all regions to support returns. Over 3 months, our conviction has strengthened with the
clearer signs of growth improving, but it is still lower than our conviction over the longer term. Regionally, we
upgrade Asia ex-Japan to neutral over 3 months and downgrade Japan to neutral. We remain overweight Europe
and underweight the US. Over 12 months our regional allocation is unchanged with an overweight in Japan and
Europe, a neutral on Asia ex-Japan and an underweight in the US.
Over 12 months we continue to see equities as the asset class
with the best potential. We expect the improvement in global
growth to be reflected in solid earnings growth and for this to
drive returns. Absolute valuations have reached a level where
we do not expect further contributions to returns, though we
also do not see valuations as a significant headwind given the
current macro environment. That said we do worry that
valuations at current levels offer much less of a cushion than
used to be the case if the environment were to shift.
Whereas absolute valuations are no longer a reason to buy
equities, relative valuations remain attractive. Exhibit 9 shows
the gap between the dividend yield and the real bond yield for
each of the four regions we consider. This is still about one
standard deviation above the historical average, though it has
been coming down. It represents still high equity risk premia
which we estimate as ranging between 5.1% in the US and
8.2% in Asia ex-Japan.
Some investors see the attractive relative valuations and the
lack of return prospects in other asset classes as a reason why
absolute valuations could continue to expand. We agree that
Exhibit 9: Dividend yields are high vs. real bond yields
Dividend yields minus 10-year real government bond yields. We
use five-year average inflation as a proxy for inflation
expectations. The distribution uses data from 1990 except for
Asia ex-Japan where it is from 1995
+/- stdev
6.0
this is a possibility, but we treat it as an upside risk to our
forecasts. It would not be in line with the historical experience at
this point in the cycle and especially in the US it would bring
valuations to levels that are unsustainable over the longer term.
On a 3 month horizon, the signs of improving growth in the US
and China is increasing our conviction in our overweight. We
still worry that the US slowdown was never reflected in prices
which suggests less upside from a recovery. But nevertheless,
an environment with improving data and a constructive longer
term backdrop should generate returns. We see the risk of
rising geopolitical tensions as the main concern for our 3-month
overweight.
We are also mindful that earnings for 2014 continue to be
revised down in all regions with the exception of Japan (Exhibit
10). So far markets have been patient with these downgrades
and we think that it will remain the case for a while longer
assuming that the economic recovery story remains intact. But
we believe that patience will eventually run out if we do not see
a turning point for revisions.
Exhibit 10: Earnings revisions have been negative
outside Japan
4%
current
4.0
Average
2.0
2%
0%
0.0
-2%
-2.0
-4.0
-4%
-6.0
-6%
Europe (STOXX 600)
US (S&P 500)
Japan (TOPIX)
-8.0
Europe
US
Asia Ex-Japan
Japan
Source: Datastream, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research.
-8%
31 Dec
Asia ex Japan (MSCI Asia ex Japan)
14 Jan 28 Jan 11 Feb 25 Feb 11 Mar
25 Mar
Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
We expect the turn to occur and forecast above consensus
earnings growth in Japan and Europe (Exhibit 11). In the US
we are sceptical that we will see the degree of margin
expansion which is expected by consensus given the very high
starting level for margins, but we are more optimistic than
consensus on sales.
Regionally, we keep our 12 month allocation unchanged. We
are overweight Japan and Europe, neutral on Asia ex-Japan
and underweight the US. Over 3 months we downgrade Japan
to neutral and upgrade Asia ex-Japan to neutral. We remain
overweight Europe and underweight the US over this horizon.
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Exhibit 11: Global indices price targets and earnings growth
All data is in local currency except data for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index which is in US$
Current
Price
9-Apr-2014
Stoxx Europe 600
335
MXAPJ
3-m
12-m
350
360
375
4.4
7
12
11
12
8
12
482
480
490
520
-0.5
2
8
10
14
12
10
S&P 500
1,872
1,850
1,875
1,950
-1.2
0
4
8
8
9
12
TOPIX
1,150
1,200
1,300
1,450
4.3
13
26
21
15
9
11
Index
Upside to target (%)
3-m
6-m
12-m
Earnings Growth
GS top-down
Consensus bottom-up
2014E
2015E
2014E
2015E
GS Target
6-m
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Note : TOPIX
EPS is based on fiscal, not
calendar, years (i.e 2014www.jztzw.net
represents the fiscal year ending
in March 2015).
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Exhibit 12: Earnings sentiment by region
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Upgrades less downgrades, as percentage of changes in estimates (last four weeks)
Source: Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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60%
60%
Pan-Europe
Asia ex-Japan
US
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
Japan
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-40%
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-40%
-60%
-60%
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-80%
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
-80%
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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Exhibit 13: Global valuation metrics
P/E is NTM on consensus earnings, net income margins is consensus 2013, all other data is 2013 or last twelve months
S&P 500
Stoxx Europe 600
MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan
Topix
P/E
(X)
15.8
14.1
11.9
12.6
EV / EBITDA
(X)
9.2
8.0
8.4
7.1
FCF Yield
(%)
4.8
5.5
4.5
4.7
Div Yield
(%)
2.0
3.2
3.1
2.0
P/B
(X)
2.7
1.8
1.6
1.3
Net Income
Margin (%)
8.9
6.4
8.8
6.8
ROE
(%)
14.8
8.8
11.9
8.7
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Implied
ERP (%)
5.1
7.0
8.2
6.7
Note : TOPIX EPS is based on fiscal, not calendar, years (i.e 2013 represents the fiscal year ending in March 2014)
Source: Worldscope, I/B/E/S, Datastream, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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全球投资研究
9
40
(x)
"+/- 1 Stdev"
35
Average
30
Current
5
High/low
4.5
4
3.5
25
3
20
2.5
15
2
1.5
10
1
5
0
0.5
Europe
US
Asia
ex-Japan
Japan
Europe
12‐month forward PE (LHS)
US
Asia
ex-Japan
Japan
0
Trailing P/B (RHS)
Source: Worldscope, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
We remain very constructive on Japan over the longer term,
where we expect performance to be supported by further BOJ
easing, nuclear restarts and continued structural reforms (such
as special economic zones, potential further cut in the
corporate tax rate and immigration reform) in combination with
a further weakening of the yen and strong profit growth.
However, in the near term we only see limited catalysts and we
therefore take our relative weighting down to neutral.
We expect reasonable returns for the US on an absolute basis
over the coming year, but relative to other markets, the longerterm recovery potential is smaller given already high margins
and strong performance so far. We remain underweight over
both 3 and 12 months.
In Asia ex-Japan the near-term outlook has improved
significantly with signs of support for a near-term rebound in
Chinese growth together with a generally better global growth
Europe remains attractive in a global context. Margins have
picture. We therefore upgrade to neutral over 3 months. We
seen a significant cyclical decline and we now expect the
continue to expect profit growth to improve further in 2015
improvement in economic growth to drive a significant rebound. when more of the current spare capacity has been digested
This together with a catch-up from low levels in the financial
and we see that as a support for returns on a 12 months
sector should drive good earnings growth and support returns.
horizon. That said, the uncertainty about the growth outlook for
From a risk-reward perspective Europe has the advantage
China remains high in both directions and the index could also
relative to other regions that the driver of returns is a
be impacted from spill-overs from a reassertion of broader EM
straightforward cyclical recovery story. Asia ex-Japan and
pressures at some point later this year. From that perspective
Japan also offer attractive returns, but these returns are more
the uncertainty around our Asia ex-Japan forecasts remains
dependent upon reforms in the case of Japan and the ongoing
higher than for other regions.
re-balancing process of growth in China in the case of Asia exJapan, both of which involve some political risks.
Exhibit 15: Our recommended weighting within equities
Total return forecasts for each region (in local currency and in USD) and the allocation we would currently make relative to benchmark on
both a 3- and 12-month horizon
3-Months
Index
Stoxx Europe 600
Topix
MXAPJ
S&P 500
Return Forecasts
12-Months
Recommended
Local Cur.
In USD
Allocation
5
5
0
‐1
5
4
0
‐1
Overweight
Neutral
Neutral
Underweight
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Index
Topix
Stoxx Europe 600
MXAPJ
S&P 500
Return Forecasts
Recommended
Local Cur.
In USD
Allocation
28
15
11
6
19
8
11
6
Overweight
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
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Overview: The thematic exposures that we try to capture
through our sector weightings have become slightly less
uniform across regions. We are generally positive on
information technology, financials and industrials, which we
expect to benefit from the improvement in economic growth.
We are more negative on the consumer area with the
exception of consumer discretionary in the US. We are
concerned about valuations in the more stable parts of the
consumer segment as well as its low gearing to improving
global growth. In the energy & material and defensive areas,
there are many regional variations around views that are on
average neutral.
Energy and materials: Our view on energy and materials
has improved and we are now neutral with some exceptions. In
Europe we are now neutral on oil & gas on attractive valuations
and the view that the sector is adjusting to the current oil price
environment, but we remain underweight basic resources and
chemicals. In Japan we overweight steel & nonferrous on
attractive valuations and high earnings growth expectations,
while we remain underweight energy on a weak outlook for
earnings. In Asia ex-Japan on the other hand we are
overweight energy on attractive valuations.
Information technology: We remain overweight technology
across regions as we expect the sector to benefit from the
economic recovery in developed markets. The exception to the
overweight stance is our underweight in software & internet
services in Japan. The sector scores poorly on our quantitative
framework and we see little in terms of share price catalysts.
Financials: Our view on financials remains positive. In Europe
we overweight banks and insurance. Both sectors have
attractive valuations and we expect banks to benefit from
strong earnings growth and insurance to benefit from rising
interest rates. In Japan we overweight banks as we find the
valuation attractive and see it as a key reflation beneficiary. We
underweight securities & other financials where we see limited
earnings upside relative to banks. We are neutral on financials
in the US and in Asia ex-Japan we are underweight real estate
where we remain concerned about the potential pressures
from rising DM interest rates.
Industrials: We are broadly positive on the industrial space.
In the US we are overweight due to the sectors’ gearing to the
US recovery. In Europe we have long been overweight autos &
parts due to its gearing to the global cycle and attractive
valuations. This week we upgraded industrial goods & services
to neutral on the stronger near term global growth outlook. In
Japan we overweight industrial electronics where we expect
earnings to improve as the global cycle picks up. In Asia exJapan we overweight both autos & components and capital
goods.
Defensives: Our view on defensives has improved and is now
on average neutral though with many nuances across the
regions. In the US and Asia ex-Japan we are neutral on health
care and underweight utilities and telecommunication reflecting
a generally pro-cyclical stance. In Europe we are neutral on
telecommunications where near term M&A potential has to be
weighed against longer term structural headwinds. We are also
neutral on utilities while we overweight health care, which we
still see as attractively valued relative to its potential for steady
growth. In Japan we overweight both telecommunication and
pharmaceuticals, which we expect to benefit from their high
yield, while we are neutral on utilities.
Consumption: We are negative on consumer-exposed
sectors. The exception is our overweight in consumer
discretionary in the US where we expect strong revenue
growth, improving margins and support from better labour
market conditions. We are generally concerned about the
valuation of the more stable parts of the consumer space as
well as its low gearing to improving global growth. These
concerns drive our underweight in consumer staples in the US,
food and beverage in Europe and to a lesser extent our
underweight in consumer staples in Asia ex-Japan. We are
also underweight retail in Europe on concerns about rising
competition from discounters and e-commerce. Finally, we
underweight retail and household products in Japan. In both
cases we see valuations as unattractive and the outlook for
earnings as weak.
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Overweight
Neutral
US
Financials
Health Care
Energy
Materials
Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Underweight
Consumer Staples
Utilities
Telecom Services
Europe
Oil & Gas
Media
Telecoms
Real Estate
Constructruction & Materials
Financial Services
Utilities
Travel & Leisure
Personal & Household Goods
Industrial Goods & Services
Banks
Autos & Parts
Insurance
Technology
Healthcare
Chemicals
Basic Resources
Retail
Food & Beverage
Europe Subsectors
Staffing*
Integrated Oil & Gas*
Luxury Goods*
UK Homebuilders
Civil Aerospace
Capital Goods*
Oil Services*
Food Products*
Japan
Chemicals
Machinery
Trading
Construction
Transportation
Automobiles & Parts
Media
Consumer Electronics
Food & Beverage
Insurance
Real Estate & Housing
Utilities
Steel & Nonferrous
Industrial Electronics
Pharmaceuticals
Banks
IT Services
Elec components & Precisions
Telecom
Energy
Building Products
Retail
Household Products
Securities & Other Financials
Software & Internet Services
Asia ex-Japan
Banks
Metals & Mining
Software & Services
Transportation
Health Care
Chemicals & Other Materials
Consumer Retail & Services
Autos & Components
Energy
Capital Goods
Tech Hardware & Semis
Insurance & Other Financials
Real Estate
Utilities
Consumer Staples
Telecom Services
*denotes long/short trade. Capital Goods is an equal weighted average of our Machinery and Electrical Equipment subsector baskets
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Analyst Contributors
Peter Oppenheimer
+44(20)7552-5782
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
David J. Kostin
(212) 902-6781
[email protected]
Goldman, Sachs & Co..
Kathy Matsui
+81(3)6437-9950
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Timothy Moe, CFA
+852-2978-1328
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Anders Nielsen
+44(20)7552-3000
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
Matthieu Walterspiler
+44(20)7552-3403
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
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In commodities we see significant downside: 1) in gold, due to the current overshoot in prices relative to current
real interest rates and pressure building from future increases in real interest rates; 2) in iron ore due to stronger
supply; and 3) in the agricultural complex later in the year as normal weather conditions would lead to further
increases in already high inventories. Our outlook for oil and copper is relatively flat but risks are to the downside,
in our view. In the case of oil a faster decline in geopolitical risks than we expect could lead to more supply and
lower prices than our forecast. For copper, an unwind of the metal tied up in financing deals could lead to
significant extra supply into global markets. In this scenario we estimate that copper could find cost support at
c.$5000-$5500/t. The idiosyncratic events this year have increased stresses in a number of commodity markets,
making them more vulnerable to additional shocks over the summer. We stay neutral over 3 months and
underweight over 12 months.
Since the beginning of the year, transient events including cold
weather, Chinese credit and Crimea have driven commodity
prices. Although on net the impact was relatively small to the
broader indices, these events did have relatively large
offsetting impacts. Weather and Crimea pushed up natural gas,
gold and agriculture markets and Chinese credit concerns and
associated worries about the unwind of Chinese Commodity
Financing Deals (CCFDs) pushed down copper and iron ore.
While the moves in copper and iron ore are consistent with our
underlying fundamental views for oversupplied markets, the
moves in agriculture and gold were not. However, barring an
unfavorable summer growing season, we still see downside in
agriculture following the rally this winter. For gold, the primary
drivers of the recent rally has been the poor, but likely weather
driven, US macroeconomic data combined with the recent
events in Russia.
While we see clear catalysts for the recent rally in gold prices,
this move has been large relative to US real rates which are a
key input into our gold price forecasts. As a result, we see
potential for a meaningful decline in gold prices towards the
level implied by 10-year TIPS yields, which our strategists
expect to rise further this year. More broadly, we believe that
with tapering of the Fed’s QE, US economic releases are back
to being a key driving force behind gold prices. As a result, we
expect that the decline in gold prices will likely be data
dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which
was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold
speculative positioning and stabilizing growth. As our
economists are still confident in an acceleration in US
economic growth during the second half of this year, we
continue to stand by our year-end gold price target of
$1050/toz.
In contrast, crude oil continues to be extremely range bound
with no real near-term catalyst to take a strong view either to
the upside or downside. Accordingly, we maintain our end of
year target of $105/bbl, as supply disappointments from Libya
were offset by demand disappointments in China and higherthan-expected output from Saudi Arabia. Implied crude oil
volatility continues to remain at record low levels due to: 1) the
Fed’s monetary policies taking out any good or bad surprises
to US demand, 2) a more elastic demand curve created from
the current rotation of demand away from emerging markets
(EM) and towards developed markets (DM), and finally, 3) the
more elastic nature of the supply curve due to the Shale
revolution turning oil output into more of a manufacturing
process. On net, we continue to maintain our near-term neutral
recommendation on commodities with a -2.0% 3-month
expected return and a underweight recommendation on a 12month basis with a -4.5% return.
Declining correlation with the return of idiosyncratic
drivers
The sharp decline in commodity volatility has also been
accompanied by a sharp decline in correlations between
commodities and other asset classes, particularly bonds. Since
the beginning of the year 12-month correlations have dropped
to 0% for bonds and 30% for equities, the lowest levels since
the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 (see Exhibit 17).
We argued during the period from 2009 to 2011 that the high
level of correlations was due to the common nature of the
credit shock that impacted all markets. In contrast as 2014
begins, most of the commodity markets have been driven by
their own fundamental drivers. Although these drivers have
been transient in nature, they are idiosyncratic which has
helped to drive down the correlations not only with other asset
classes but also within the commodity space itself (see Exhibit
18), reinforcing the strategic investment case for commodities.
wwwww13
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
图表1: A sharp decline in correlations between
commodities and other asset classes
图表2: Idiosyncratic drivers have helped to drive down
the correlations within the commodity space itself
12-month correlations
Average pairwise commodity sector 12-month correlation
50%
80%
Commodity vs equity
60%
Commodity vs US treasury bonds
45%
40%
35%
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40%
30%
20%
25%
20%
0%
15%
-20%
10%
5%
-40%
0%
-60%
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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
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服务商
while WTI timespreads remained well supported. Driving this
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Standard & Poor’s, Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research.
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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strength
in WTI prices andwww.jztzw.net
the level of backwardation
was the
Energy
continuous outflow of crude from Cushing to the Gulf Coast via
the new MarketLink pipeline. Going forward, refinery utilization
will remain essential for the WTI-Brent differential outlook in
our view, in particular on the US Gulf Coast where we believe
Petroleum: Brent price risks remained skewed to the that the conclusion of spring refinery maintenance will continue
downside amid heightened geopolitical risks
to result in a sequential increase in crude throughput. Further,
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So far in 2014, Brent prices continue to trade within a $105we believe that only very little room for light crude import
111/bbl range, the bounds of which have only been tested by
displacement exists and that, although far more minor than we
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geopolitical
risk factors such
as the Russian-Ukraine
conflict on
initially thought,
exports to Canada
will play a role in
the
the upper end and the potential end to the blockage of Libyan
adjustment process during 2014. Importantly, we estimate this
crude oil export terminals on the lower end. Amid this backdrop still happens at a WTI-Brent spread between
of elevated geopolitical risks, crude oil volatility has remained
-$7.00/bbl and -$10.00/bbl. However, within that range, we
close to record low levels, despite global oil inventories
believe that the adjustment will be far from a continuous
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continuing on their heavily depressed trajectory. In our view,
sequential process, but rather characterized by volatility as the
this relatively stable market environment both in terms of Brent
ability for US refineries to process the excess crude oil remains
prices and low volatility is a sign of a balanced underlying
a key driver.
crude oil market in which the US shale revolution has resulted
in a much flatter oil supply curve, increasing supply flexibility
US natural gas
with the effect of limiting price volatility. Importantly, we believe
US natural gas prices are currently trading close to
three key shifts that occurred in 2H13 will continue to shape
$4.50/mmBtu after experiencing a volatile start to 2014, briefly
the 2014 global crude oil market: (1) demand rotation with
climbing above $6/mmBtu towards the end of February as the
stronger DM demand offsetting weaker EM demand, (2) supply market endured a prolonged, cold winter and multiple polar
normalization with non-OPEC production outside North
vortices. As we come out of the winter with gas inventories at
America continuing to grow, and (3) OPEC supply disruptions
their lowest level since 2003, the market is now turning to the
with Libyan supply uncertainty remaining elevated. Taken
question of what it will take to rebuild inventories to healthy
together, our supply and demand outlook for 2014 continues to levels for next year and beyond. In our view, while this winter
suggest a modest weakening of the global oil balance and as a has materially tightened the US gas balance, the market is still
result points to a modest decline in prices, leading us to leave
likely to be characterized by faster production than demand
our year-end Brent price forecast unchanged at $105/bbl.
growth, allowing greater flexibility to deal with potentially lower
than normal inventories going into winter 2014-15. However,
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crude oil prices continued
their rally through the
past
while we maintain our 2014 annual average forecast at
months as the WTI-Brent differential narrowed to
$4.50/mmBtu, we highlight that risks are now skewed to the
-$4/bbl at the beginning of April, its highest level since
upside. For 2014, a hotter-than-average summer or
September 2013, up from -$12/bbl at the beginning of the year,
We expect -3.0% returns on the S&P GSCI® Enhanced
Energy index on a 12-month horizon.
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14
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
disappointing production growth (in an environment where gas
nickel in nickel pig iron), as well as concerns about the
drilling has stagnated) would be likely catalysts for a rally in
potential impact of any sanctions on Russian commodity
summer 2014 prices to discourage demand and allow storage
exports (Russia represents c.12% of global supply via refined
to rebuild. For 2015, the main upside risk to our forecast is if
supply). We have been bullish on nickel since the start of the
2014 prices do not rally to encourage storage to rebuild to
year, but prices have risen more quickly than in our base case.
historical average levels, tightening the outlook for 2015.
Risks to our forecasts were skewed to the upside, and
However, given our expectation in December that the market
continue to be so, with upside to prices of c.$20,000/t should
would
be
well-supplied
in
2015,
we
expect
that
there
is
a
buffer
Indonesia not
back down quickly following
the early July www.jztzw.
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of price responsive coal-to-gas substitution which can partially
presidential elections.
offset tight inventories and keep prices below $4.50/mmBtu.
In aluminium, Chinese domestic prices have fallen by more
than 10% so far this year, their lowest levels in over 16 years
European natural gas
(excluding the global financial crisis), reflecting the combination
In contrast, a mild winter has softened the northwest European
of a dramatic ramp-up in low-cost smelter capacity in North
gas market considerably, causing UK NBP prices to fall by
and North Western China and a lack of closures of high-cost
30% from their December peak. Gas prices have been
Chinese capacity outside these regions. Following the recent
relatively unresponsive to the ongoing political tensions
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Chinese
domestic price declines,
we estimate that
50%, or 11between Russia and Ukraine, consistent with our view that
12mt of Chinese output, is losing money on a cash-cost basis,
significant disruptions in Russian gas supply to Europe are
equal to almost 25% of world total supply. Of this, we estimate
unlikely because: (i) Russian gas imports are a major source of
that all Chinese grid-based power producers – accounting for
supply for northwest Europe, making it likely that the EU will
25%-30% of Chinese supply – are losing cash at present. The
target other economic sanctions; (ii) gas exports to Europe are
global aluminium market surplus so far this year comprises a
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an important
source of revenue
for Russia, makingwww.jztzw.net
it unlikely
major surplus in China and a small deficit ex-China. This has
that they unilaterally halt gas sales in retaliation to other
also been reflected in a rise in ex-China prices, which are up
sanctions; and (iii) net gas flows to northwest Europe almost
5%-10% year to date. This price divergence is causing an
entirely bypass Ukraine. Accordingly, we believe that UK NBP
increase in Chinese exports of semi-fabricated products (China
prices are not likely to be unduly pressured in the current
is not an aluminium island), likely capping the recent ex-China
environment, as we still expect northwest European gas
rally in the short term. Ultimately, we continue to expect that
markets to remain well supplied this year.
smelter closures
in China will resultwww.jztzw.net
in 2014 being the last year
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of the surplus for the global market in this cycle – as detailed in
our note of February 26, Aluminium – envisaging the end of the
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Industrial
metalswww.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
Great Surplus. The risks to this outlook remain how much
further support Chinese smelters receive, and broader global
We expect -3.5% returns on the S&P GSCI® Enhanced
demand risks; however, the medium-term outlook for
Industrial Metals index on a 12-month horizon.
aluminium continues to look more constructive than it has done
Copper has been the significant underperformer year to date,
for many years
in our view.
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falling more than 10%. While the Chaori Solar default and
concerns about an unwind of Chinese Copper Financing Deals
were triggers for a rapid sell-off in March, sluggish copper
demand growth – particularly from China’s construction sector
to which copper is heavily exposed – combined with a once in
Precious metals
20 year supply boom, were the underlying causes of copper’s
We expect -15.0% returns on the S&P GSCI® Enhanced
price weakness and its relative underperformance. While much
Precious Metals index on a 12-month horizon.
of our forecast price declines for 2014 have materialised, we
The 2014 gold rally brought prices to their highest level since
continue to expect that copper prices will grind lower over the
September before a more hawkish-than-expected March
next 12 months, to $6200/t. In particular, we see limited upside
FOMC pushed prices sharply lower. Three distinct and in our
risks to Chinese demand growth owing to highly leveraged
view transient catalysts have driven this rally: 1) a sharp
Chinese corporate balance sheets and anticipated weakness
slowdown in US economic activity which we believe was
in copper-intensive construction completions, and downside
weather driven, 2) high Chinese credit concerns, although
risks to our price forecasts in the case of a rapid unwind in
ultimately bearish for gold demand through lower financing
Chinese Copper Financing Deals (not our base case), or a
larger-than-expected slowdown in the Chinese property market. deals if realized, and 3) escalating tensions over Ukraine.
While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices,
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By contrast,
nickel has been the stark
outperformer in the
base
we expect a sequential acceleration in both US and Chinese
metals space in 2014, rising from $14,000/t to more than
activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may
$17,000/t. The price rally predominantly reflects the ongoing
take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration.
Indonesian ore export ban (more than 20% of global supply via
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全球投资研究
15
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
Importantly, it would require a significant sustained slowdown
in US growth for us to revisit our expectation for lower US gold
prices over the next two years. Beyond the acceleration in US
activity, signs of sequentially weaker Chinese gold imports
could pressure prices in coming months.
disruptions to Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports which are
significant to global trade, and 4) rising likelihood that the El
Nino weather pattern develops in coming months. While the
Brazil drought and potential for El Nino will likely shift most soft
commodity markets (sugar, coffee, cocoa) into deficit into 2014,
global corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton inventories remain
elevated. As a result, and given no disruptions to Black Sea
exports so far,
we don’t expect further
increases in grain and
Agriculture
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oilseed prices in the short term except in the case of soybeans
We expect -10.0% returns on the S&P GSCI® Enhanced
where projected record low US inventories could further
Agricultural index on a 12-month horizon, and -5.0% returns in
support prices. In fact, we expect prices will decline sharply
the Enhanced Livestock index.
this summer as normal weather conditions would lead to
Agriculture prices rallied sharply over the past two months on
further increases in already high inventories. In the case of
the combination of: 1) drought conditions in Southern Brazil
corn and soybeans, the El Nino weather pattern creates further
which impacted sugar, coffee and soybean production, 2)
downside risk to our forecast as it has historically been
stronger-than-expected US exports of corn, soybeans and
beneficial to US production.
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cotton, 3) escalating tensions in Crimea with potential
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Current
12-Month
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服务商
Weight
Forward
Exhibit 17: S&P GSCI® Enhanced Commodity Index and strategies’ total returns forecasts
(%) www.jztzw.net
2012
2013
2014 YTD¹ 12-mo
Forecast
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S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index
Energy
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Agriculture
Livestock
100.0
71.1
6.2
2.7
14.2
5.8
-0.1
-1.5
1.3
6.2
5.4
-2.8
-0.8
5.6
-13.0
-29.7
-18.0
-2.8
3.7
1.6
-3.7
7.7
14.9
13.0
-4.5
-3.0
-3.5
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
¹ YTD returns through April 9, 2014
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Source: S&P, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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Analyst
Contributors www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
Jeffrey Currie
(212) 357-6801
[email protected]
Goldman,www.jztzw.net
Sachs & Co.
www.jztzw.net
Damien Courvalin
(212)902-3307
[email protected]
Goldman, Sachs
& Co.
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
Samantha Dart
+44(20)7552-9350
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
Max Layton
+44(20)7774-1105
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
Christian Lelong
+61(2)93218635
[email protected]
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Philipp Koenig
+44(20)7774-2535
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
Daniel Quigley
+44(20)7774-3470
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
Roger Yuan
+852-2978-6128
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Amber Cai
+65 6654-5264
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte
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全球投资研究
16
Corporate bond spreads tightened substantially in the first quarter, pushing through our year-end 2014 forecast
in HY. Investment grade bond spreads are now a bit below their median level over the last three decades, while
HY bonds are even tighter - near their twentieth percentile. We nonetheless expect further modest spread
tightening from here, driven by a pickup in economic growth and accommodative policymakers. We maintain our
neutral stance on the asset class overall. We look for relative value in IG financials, shorter-duration bonds in HY,
levered loans, cyclical sectors, and illiquids.
Risk assets bounced back from their January sell-off to post a
decent performance for the quarter. Spreads on the US HY
index narrowed by 23 bp through quarter-end, while IG 5-yr
bonds narrowed by 8 bp. With Treasury rates also falling—the
10-year yield fell by 28 bp—corporate bonds posted solid total
returns for the quarter.
Exhibits 20 and 21 put these new spread levels in a historical
perspective by comparing current spreads with their
distribution since 1985. Both IG and HY spreads reached new
post-crisis tights this quarter and are now at levels comparable
to those seen in 2005. IG spreads have now broken through
their historical median, while HY spreads are near the 20th
percentile of their historical distribution. That is, HY spreads
have been at their current level or below only about 20% of the
time since 1985.
With spreads this tight by historical standards, one might be
tempted to conclude that further tightening is less likely than
widening (especially in HY). Nonetheless, we continue to
forecast that spreads will grind tighter from here. Our economic
outlook calls for an improvement in growth, accompanied by
low volatility and accommodative monetary policy. We expect
these forces to drive a continuing compression in credit risk
premia that will lead spreads downward.
Exhibit 18: Broad IG spreads are near their median over
the last three decades
OAS, estimated based on G-spread prior to 1989
500
Complementing our optimistic views on growth, we still think
there is a great deal of spare capacity in the labor market,
which will limit upward pressure on wages and prices. This
view had been increasingly called into question over the last
year as the unemployment rate fell faster than expected. But
we take heart from the uptick in the labor force participation
rate seen over the last three months, which accords with our
view that many of the workers who left the labor force in recent
years can come
Exhibit 19: HY spreads are near their 20th percentile
OAS, estimated as yield-to-maturity less 5-year Treasury yield
before 1997
2000
700
600
Although we now estimate that US GDP growth in the first
quarter was notably below our expectations coming in, we
believe that much of this disappointment is attributable to a
combination of unusually wintery weather and “payback” from
the strong pace of inventory buildup at the end of last year. We
thus expect US GDP growth to step up smartly to a 3% rate in
2Q and to 3.5% in the second half, and we expect a pickup in
global growth as well (see Markets in the second quarter:
Expansion Ahead, Global Economics Weekly, April 2, 2014).
We also believe that we have returned to the lower level of
macroeconomic volatility that characterized the “Great
Moderation” period before the financial crisis, so the risks of a
severe disappointment relative to this forecast have diminished
as well (see Did the Great Recession derail the Great
Moderation? Probably not, Global Economics Weekly, March
26, 2014).
IG US Corporate Spread
75th percentile
Median
25th percentile
All-time tight
400
1800
1600
1400
HY OAS
75th percentile
Median
25th percentile
All-time tight
1200
1000
300
200
800
600
400
100
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Source: Yieldbook, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
200
0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Source: BAML, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
back when demand increases. The re-entry of workers like this
We also expect better growth in the coming quarters to flow
will help mitigate inflationary pressures, and thus mitigate
through to revenue and earnings, helping to stabilize or reverse
pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin tightening policy
some of the recent upward trend in debt-to-EBITDA ratios. We
sooner than expected. Indeed, we recently reiterated our view
remain skeptical of the popular concern that corporate leverage
that the federal funds rate will not begin to rise above its nearcould rise sharply due simply to low corporate bond yields, and
zero level until early 2016 (see A Late Hike Still Looks Right,
we point to the 2005-2007 period as a counterexample. That
US Views, April 7, 2014). Across the Atlantic, the news has also said, the idiosyncratic risk of “active” releveraging remains high
been dovish,
with the ECB hinting www.jztzw.net
strongly last week thatwww.jztzw.net
for some firms
and sectors due to low
bond yields, struggling
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continuing low inflation would put the possibility of QE-style
ROEs, and activist shareholders, especially for companies that
asset purchases on the table.
have underperformed their peers. We also think that the
moderate rise in leverage that we have seen would likely make
We think this combination of improvement in the economic
defaults more sensitive to a downturn in growth during the next
outlook and policy support for fixed income assets will lead to a
recession, when it does ultimately occur.
continued compression in credit risk premia and in credit
spreads. We maintain our forecast that IG 5-year spreads will
Although we are comfortable with our outlook for further spread
continue their grind tighter, with USD spreads reaching 79 bp by tightening, we note that our forecast for rising Treasury rates
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year-end,www.jztzw.net
and EUR spreads reaching
111 bp. Sincewww.jztzw.net
HY
implieswww.jztzw.net
that total returns forwww.jztzw.net
corporate bond investors
will be
limited (see Searching for carry in a duration-risky world, The
spreads tightened faster than we expected last quarter, we
have revised our spread forecasts down further. We now project Credit Line, March 26, 2014). In IG, modest spread tightening at
that OAS on the BAML USD HY index will reach 350 bp by
the five-year point is overwhelmed by the 60 bp increase in 5year-end and 345 bp by the end of 1Q2015.
year Treasury rates that we foresee by year-end, and we thus
expect negative total returns over the rest of the year. In HY,
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Balance sheet
releveraging stillwww.jztzw.net
tops our list of risks www.jztzw.net
to this
higher carry provides enough return to offset the rate increase,
outlook, although it remains only a risk and not our baseline.
but we still see room for only a modest additional return.
We recently updated our bottom-up credit metrics (Exhibits 22
and 23), and find that they changed little, on balance, from
One scenario we worry little about is a rate rise that causes
3Q2013 to 4Q. Although leverage ratios have risen moderately
retail investors to flee fixed income, pushing up spreads. In our
over the last few years, our econometric work suggests that the view, the market has shown repeatedly that it can withstand
risk of defaults under our baseline growth forecast remains
mutual fund outflows with little sustained impact, and we believe
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subdued (Will rising leverage drive more defaults? The Credit
that the kind of
growth news likely towww.jztzw.net
drive rate increases will
also tend to push spreads tighter (see Why our fund flow view
Line, April 3, 2014).
passed the taper
tantrum test, The
Credit Line, March
6, 2014).
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Exhibit 20: Our bottom-up measures of debt/EBITDA have
risen over the last few years, but remain subdued
Exhibit 21: Our debt/asset measures tell a similar story
Median ratio of debt (net of cash) to assets for IG and BB/B debt
issuers
Median ratio of debt (net of cash) to EBITDA for IG and BB/B
debt issuers
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5.5
3.5
5
3
0.35
0.5
0.45
0.3
4.5
2.5
4
0.4
0.25
0.35
3.5
2
IG (LHS)
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商
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0.15
HY (RHS)
2.5
Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
0.25
2014
0.2
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
0.1
1986
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
2
1986
1
0.3
IG (LHS)
3
HY (RHS)
1988
1.5
0.2
Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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全球投资研究
18
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
Relative value themes: We like IG financials, shorterduration bonds in HY, cyclicals, and illiquids
high loss-adjusted carry with lower duration than longer-dated
credits. Nonetheless, bond pickers looking to avoid rate risk
may be able find pockets of value in CCC-rated names with
attractive carry and low default risk.
Although much progress has been made since the financial
crisis, US IG financial credits still trade wide compared to nonfinancials. We think these financial credits look attractive for
We have also reiterated our view that cyclical sectors should
three reasons. First, higher carry will boost returns early in the
outperform this year as the economy accelerates and markets
year, fitting our main theme for 2014 of seeking out higher carry react positively. Despite last year’s strong performance from
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(A carry-friendly
world, Global Credit
Outlook, November www.jztzw.net
22,
risk assets, cyclical
sectors in credit www.jztzw.net
performed essentially in
2013). Second, we have shown that financial yields move less
line with defensives. We think this leaves them considerable
than non-financials in response to Treasury rate moves,
room to outperform this year as the economy accelerates (see
Stay the course on cyclical credits, The Credit Line, February 3,
insulating financials from the risks around a rate increase.
Finally, we project that financial spreads will trade inside non
2014).
financials before year-end, providing extra price return for
Finally, we think liquidity premia still offer opportunities for
financials.
spread enhancement. Although our measure of the extra
Within high-yield, investors worried about the rate increase in
spread earned by illiquid bonds relative to liquid ones has
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our forecast are left with two choices: either shorten duration or
compressed notably over the last few months, it remains high
by pre-crisis standards (see Liquidity premia have compressed,
move down in the rating spectrum and add risk in CCC-rated
but opportunity remains, The Credit Line, February 5, 2014).
bonds. In aggregate at least, the former makes more sense to
us. We think B-rated bonds are now in the sweet spot of the
We therefore recommend seeking extra spread in off-the-run
tradeoff between carry and duration, as they feature a relatively bonds, small issues, and bonds in smaller capital structures.
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Analyst Contributors
Charles Himmelberg
(917) 343-3218
[email protected]
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Lotfi Karoui
(917) 343-1548
[email protected]
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Kenneth Ho
852-2978-7468
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Jesse Edgerton
(212) 357-5522
[email protected]
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
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wwwww19
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全球投资研究
19
We stay underweight government bonds over both 3 and 12 months. Bond yields are now below our forecasts
and we expect them to increase on the back of better US growth, the Feds’ shift to qualitative forward guidance
and possible further easing by the ECB involving support to ABS.
Since the start of the year, longer-dated government bonds in
the main advanced economies have been buoyed by strength
in the JGB market, supported by ongoing and prospective BOJ
purchases, and a rally in German bonds, spurred by a string of
low inflation prints in the Euro area that raised expectations of
further ECB easing. Year-to-date total returns at the 7-10 year
sector (using EFFAS indices), are 1.4% in the JGB market
(with low volatility) and 3.8% in German Bunds. In the US, a
disappointing start of the year in terms of economic data led
the 10-year UST to rally strongly during January, with yields
falling from 3.0% to 2.6% during the month. After this initial
sharp correction, US bond investors came to realize that
weather-related distortions and some destocking effects were
behind the soft patch in the data. The UST 10-year has since
been trading in a range-bound fashion between 2.6%-2.8%,
waiting for the distortions to abate and reveal the true
underlying strength in the economy. Indeed, returns on 7-10
year US bonds are 3% year-to-date, most of which was gained
during January.
图表3: Government Bonds have fared well YTD
Year-to-date total returns from EFFAS indices
4.0
%
Year-to-Date Return
3.5
Month-to-Date Return
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Germany
US
UK
Japan
weaker data), and the anticipation of further easing by the ECB.
We recommended closing the position for a profit earlier this
month.
Since January we have advised being long 10-year Japanese
inflation on the view that the BoJ is committed to reflating the
economy and lift Japan out of its liquidity trap. Inflation has
responded positively to the stimulus, and is moving, albeit
slowly, upward. We expect further easing measures from the
BoJ (later this month or in June), particularly if the upcoming
VAT increase drags strongly on consumption expenditures. At
the time of opening 10-year break-even inflation was trailing at
1.16%, and has since then increased by 16bp. With further BoJ
easing in the pipeline, 10-year break-even inflation should
keep drifting higher towards our 1.6% target.
Entering into 2Q14 we advocate outright bearish
exposures to longer-dated bonds, both at the 3-and
12-month horizon.
In the near term, we forecast that economic activity will
rebound in the US and China, with the data showing signs of
improvement as early as April/May. We concede that this
bullish growth story is now widely held among the investor’s
community. Nonetheless, we are of the view that this has not
been fully priced given the uncertainties over where the US
economy is heading over the medium term. With the data
improving, and as a result the enhanced data-dependency of
short-end rates under “qualitative” forward guidance –the Fed
reminded investors of this fact in March-, we expect rates to
drift higher as markets re-price growth. In this scenario, we
think that the front-end rates of the US$ curve (maturities
ranging 2016-18), particularly after the recent rally on the heels
of the FOMC minutes, are the most vulnerable to the positive
growth story, since according to our metrics the term premium
in this sector of the curve remains depressed by any historical
standard.
Over most of the first quarter we held a neutral duration stance
and focused mostly on cross-country opportunities. Our
forecasts for a divergence in growth, inflation and monetary
policy between the US and the Euro area called for a widening
in the interest rate spread between the two regions. Our Top
Trade recommendation to receive 5-year EONIA against going
short 5-year US Treasuries benefited from both a tilt towards a
less-dovish message from the Fed in March (in spite of the
In core European bonds, our metrics indicate that German 10year Bunds are now one of the most expensive securities
across the developed world. Hovering around 1.50%-1.60%,
Bunds are around 40bp below what our metrics indicate is ‘fair
value’ based on the current global outlook for growth, inflation
and rates. After Mr. Draghi’s press conference, in which he
implicitly lent support to a credit-type of QE instead of targeting
government bonds, we recommended opening short positions
in German 10-year Bunds, implemented via June Bund futures
(RXM4) for a target of 137.50. In our view, ECB easing should
lead to a
bear steepening of the curve with the back-end selling off from
current levels as long-term inflation expectations move higher.
In this context we also favour building long positions in longdated forward EUR inflation. Following the series of low
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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美洲
inflation prints without a strong reaction from the ECB, some
Finally, we expect EMU peripheral sovereigns to continue
market participants came to the conclusion that the ECB is
performing relatively well on a spread to Germany, but more
willing to tolerate a protracted undershooting in its price
poorly in an outright basis given the sell-off in Bunds we now
stability mandate. Forward inflation has re-priced accordingly,
look for. In terms of relative valuations, we continue favouring
with 5-year tenor 5-year forward inflation falling to close to 2%.
Italy over Spain, since the latter looks relatively more
But we think that the ECB will not tolerate a more meaningful
expensive on macro fundamentals. In Italy, 10-year spreads at
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
decline, and will thus provide support to the economy via
165bp over Bunds are only half a standard deviation expensive
credit-easing (i.e., via the ABS market by purchasing loan
to its current ‘fair value’ based on relative macro and rating
pools).
factors. Going forward, we would consider spreads as
becoming too tight once they cross the 120-130bp level.
Exhibit 22: Euro-area long-term inflation forwards drifting
down
Exhibit 23: 10-year Bund yield trades below our Sudoku
model measure of ‘fair value’
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
4.5 www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.
2.6
3.40
%
%
%
+/- 1 std dev.
Germany 10-yr yield
Sudoku 'Fair' Value
Current Market Pricing
GS Forecast
www.jztzw.net
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告 服务商
2.4
2.65
4.0
3.5
2.2
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net3.0 www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.
1.90
2.0
1.15
2.5
2.0
HCPI (lhs)
1.8
1.5
Inflation swap 5y5y (rhs)
1.6
0.40
1.0
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17 www.jztzw.
Jan-11 www.jztzw.net
Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Jul-13 Jan-14
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Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
wwwww21
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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Analyst Contributors
Francesco U. Garzarelli
Silvia Ardagna
Mariano Cena
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs
International
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs International
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
+44(20)7774-5078
+44(20)7051-0584
+44(20)7774-1173
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
21
We provide up-to-date views on the major FX rates. We expect USD to strengthen against the major crosses (with
EURUSD revised to 1.30 in 12 months, from 1.40) as well as on a TWI basis. Our refreshed euro view, reflects our
constructive US dollar view, where we think the pick-up in US growth in coming quarters will ultimately weigh on
EUR/$. We continue to expect USDJPY higher in the near- and mid-term in anticipation of further BoJ easing (which
is most likely to come at the July meeting). We forecast GBP to also weaken against the dollar in a year’s time but
to strengthen against the EUR.
Decisively dollar bullish and broad euro bearish
Our forecasts have swung decisively dollar bullish. We now
forecast USD TWI appreciation of 4.6% in 12 months, up from
only 0.9% previously. The main catalyst for the swing in our
USD TWI projections is our more bearish stance on the euro,
where we have revised our forecast path to 1.38, 1.34, 1.30 in
3-, 6- and 12-months from 1.38, 1.40, 1.40 previously. The
revised forecast is less a reflection of last week's ECB press
conference, which our European economics team does not see
as a game changer, and more about our constructive US dollar
view, where we think the pick-up in US growth in coming
quarters will ultimately weigh on EUR/$.
ECB President Draghi last week captured the market's
imagination with language that the Governing Council
unanimously supports unconventional easing if low inflation
persists for too long. While this language weighed on EUR/$,
the press conference actually delivered a fairly mixed message.
At one point President Draghi noted – somewhat unprompted –
that two-thirds of the drop in inflation since 2012 stems from
lower energy and food prices, i.e. things typically considered
transitory and therefore not seen as requiring a policy
response. Further, he noted that special factors may be to
blame for the low March inflation reading, including the fact
that Easter this year is unusually late. The overall tone of the
press conference therefore did not betray a sense of urgency
or of imminent action.
Indeed, the press conference in some respects reminded us of
last July, when the ECB introduced forward guidance (and an
easing bias). At the time, there was disagreement between
hawks and doves on the Governing Council on the need for
further easing. Forward guidance served as a compromise and
– in the event – bought some time, before the eventual rate cut
in November. It is possible that the "unanimous" language now
fills a similar role, intended as a compromise to buy time. After
all, doves on the Governing Council are likely to have used the
low March HICP reading to push for more easing, while hawks
will have argued that one-off factors are at play. Agreeing that
We see no urgency from the ECB to ease further in the near
term, while US data have yet to rebound convincingly. However,
unconventional easing is a potential policy tool should inflation
not pick up is then perhaps the lowest common denominator
on which all sides could agree.
What does this mean for ECB policy going forward? We
distinguish between the short and medium term. In the short
term, in line with our European economics team, we do not see
last week's press conference as signaling imminent action, but
rather as a conditional commitment to ease further should
inflation disappoint. As it happens, HICP inflation is expected
to rebound to 0.9% year-over-year in April, which is likely to
reduce pressure on the ECB in the near term. In the medium
term (by which we mean mid-2014), further ECB easing
remains possible, depending on the data. Here, the ECB
forecast for inflation of 1.0% this year is arguably subject to
downside risk. Exhibit 27 shows this. Sequential, month-overmonth inflation would have to rise to 2.2% on an annualized
basis beyond April to bring the annual average inflation to
1.0% this year. This kind of rise would be above recent inflation
momentum, which we interpret as a downside risk to the ECB
forecast.
图表4: ECB forecast requires notable inflation pickup
5
Sequential month-overmonth inflation needed to
meet ECB forecast of
1.0% in 2014
4
3
2
1
0
-1
CPI, in % m/m (saar)
CPI, in % m/m (saar) f/c
CPI (sa), in % y/y
CPI (sa), in % y/y (annual average)
-2
-3
10
11
12
13
14
Source: Eurostat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
by the middle of the year inflation may not have picked up as
much as the ECB hopes, even as US data are likely to have
wwwww22
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
improved. Keeping the 3-month forecast at 1.38 is a nod to the
mid-year remains 107 and 110 for end-2014, with the risk in our
fact that US data have yet to surprise positively in a meaningful
mind that the move to 110 comes sooner.
way, so that the kind of upward pressure we envisage on US
front-end rates has yet to materialize. However, as we
图表5: Japan inflation set to go lower
discussed in a recent FX Views, we expect US cyclical
30
6
divergence from its G10 peers to sharpen as adverse weather
April - July base
effects
effects fade in the months ahead and this lies behind our 6 and
20
4
12
month
forecasts
of
1.34
and
1.30.
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Sterling caught in between
10
2
We see more sterling strength against the euro, but expect
0
0
Cable to tread water. In conjunction with the change in the
EUR/USD path, we have also amended our path for EUR/GBP.
-10
-2
We now expect the cross to trade at 0.82, 0.79 and 0.79 in 3, 6
-20
-4
and 12 months from 0.82, 0.83 and 0.85 previously. The shift
CPI, in % m/m (saar)
CPI, in % y/y (sa)
reflects relative growth dynamics and the potential for the ECB
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.netRisewww.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
in $/JPY, in % y/y (rhs)
-30
-6
to engage in QE (in a similar vain to the motivation for the
10
11
12
13
14
change in EUR/USD). However, we have kept our forecast for
Cable flat at 1.68, 1.69 and 1.65 and therefore continue to
Source: Japan MIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
expect sterling to weaken somewhat against the USD.
www.
www.jztzw.net
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告 服务商
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www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
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www.
Yen to depreciate
in anticipation
of further BoJ
Watch
for China reserves
data to providewww.jztzw.net
guidance
easing
on whether the recent policy change to deter inflows
is starting to work.
Our euro bearish view joins our yen bearish view and we
The CNY remains in focus post the injection of volatility in late
continue to look for BOJ easing. As Exhibit 28 shows, the
February and the introduction of a wider trading band for
positive impulse to CPI inflation from the weaker yen is rapidly
onshore spot in early March. The onshore USD/CNY fix has
fading, with the largest base effects to come off between April
and July. We see this as the main reason for additional stimulus risen by 1% since the lows in early January – a slightly faster
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
pace of depreciation
compared to that
after the 2012 band www.jztzw.
from the BoJ
over the summer, since
it is likely that inflation
(excluding consumption tax effects) could start going lower from widening. CNY volatility has declined since mid-March; however,
it remains above
where it was prior
to the policy change
at the
www.jztzw.net
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www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net
April. What
has struck us www.jztzw.net
in client meetings,www.jztzw.net
moreover, is that www.jztzw.net
front of the volatility curve. We are paying close attention to the
there is very little (almost zero) expectation of BoJ easing
sooner than that. Admittedly, the commentary from the April 7-8 1Q reserves data. While the overall number for the quarter is
likely to be strong (we estimate USD117 bn), it is the monthly
BOJ meeting did not suggest imminent easing. However
pattern which is likely to be more interesting. If reserve
weaker data, following the consumption tax hike, are likely to
www.jztzw.net
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www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
accumulation was strong in January and February, but dropped
weigh on sentiment, which could cause market expectations of
BoJ easing to rise again. As such, even though our expectation off in March, it could be a further indication that recent steps to
deter speculative inflows have been successful.
for renewed BoJ easing is for July at the earliest, we see all of
2Q as fertile ground for $/JPY higher. Our expectation for $/JPY
wwwww23
Exhibit 24: Our FX forecasts
EUR/$
$/JPY
£/$
EUR/£
EUR/CHF
Forecasts
Current 3 months 6 months 12 months
1.39
1.38
1.34
1.30
101.77
103.00
107.00
110.00
1.68
1.68
1.69
1.65
0.82
0.82
0.79
0.79
1.22
1.25
1.28
1.28
A$/$
$/C$
$/KRW
$/BRL
$/MXN
Forecasts
Current 3 months 6 months 12 months
0.94
0.85
0.82
0.80
1.09
1.10
1.12
1.14
1036
1080
1080
1100
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.55
13.00
13.00
13.00
13.00
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商
www.jztzw.net
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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全球投资研究
23
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
Exhibit 25: US BBoP vs. Current Account
2
Exhibit 26: Euro area BBoP vs. Current Account
4
% of GDP
4qtr avg
% GDP
12-mth ma
3
0
2
1
-2
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
0
-1
-4
-2
-3
-6
Current Account
-8
BBoP
Current Account
-4
BBoP
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
www.jztzw.net
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Source: National sources, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Source: National sources, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
www.jztzw.net
Exhibit 28: US real trade weighted index
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告 服务商
Exhibit 27: €/$ spot vs. GSDEER
1.7
GSDEER
140
EUR/USD Spot
1.6
www.jztzw.net
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TWI Appreciation
1.5
120
1.4
1.3
110
1.2
100
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
90
wwwww24
1.1
1
80
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net
0.9
real USD TWI
0.8
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
70
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
Analyst Contributors
Fiona Lake
+852 2978-6088
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Robin Brooks
(212) 902-8763
[email protected]
Goldman Sachs & Co
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商
www.jztzw.net
www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.net www.jztzw.
全球投资研究
24
Exhibit 29: Goldman Sachs 3- and 12-month return forecasts by asset class
Benchmark 3‐month Total Return
Weight Local currency
In USD
Asset Class
12‐month Total Return
Local currency In USD
Equities
S&P 500
Stoxx
MXAPJ (in USD)
Topix
40
30
20
10
1.9
‐0.7
5.3
0.3
4.8
1.6
‐0.7
4.9
0.3
3.6
12.2
6.3
15.4
11.1
28.2
9.1
6.3
8.3
11.1
18.6
10 yr. Government Bonds
US
Germany
50
50
‐3.2
‐2.0
‐4.4
‐3.3
‐2.0
‐4.7
‐5.1
‐3.3
‐6.8
‐7.9
‐3.3
‐12.6
5 yr. Corporate Bonds
US: iBoxx USD Dom. Corporates
BAML HY Master Index II
Europe: iBoxx EUR Corporates
60
20
20
‐0.8
‐0.8
‐0.3
‐1.2
‐0.9
‐0.8
‐0.3
‐1.6
‐0.2
‐0.5
1.4
‐1.0
‐1.4
‐0.5
1.4
‐7.1
Commodities (GSCI Enhanced)
‐2.0
‐2.0
‐4.5
‐4.5
Cash
US
Germany
0.1
0.1
0.1
‐0.1
0.1
‐0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
‐2.9
0.2
‐6.0
3 month target
1.38
103.00
Return vs USD
‐0.4
‐1.2
12 month target
1.30
110
Return vs USD
‐6.2
‐7.5
50
50
FX
EUR/$
$/YEN
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 30: Performance of our asset classes since the last GOAL report
108
103
Equities
102.5
S&P 500
106
Topix
Commodities
102
MXAPJ
104
wwwww25
101.5
Stoxx Europe 600
101
102
100.5
100
100
99.5
98
17-Mar
101
24-Mar
31-Mar
102
Government bonds
US 10 year Gov. bonds
100.5
99
17-Mar
07-Apr
101.5
German 10 year Gov. bonds
101
24-Mar
31-Mar
07-Apr
31-Mar
07-Apr
Credit
US IG Credit
European IG Credit
US HY Credit
100.5
100
100
99.5
99.5
99
17-Mar
24-Mar
31-Mar
07-Apr
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
99
17-Mar
24-Mar
The Securities Division of the firm may have been consulted as to the various components of the baskets of securities discussed in this report prior to their
launch; however, none of this research, the conclusions expressed herein, nor the timing of this report was shared with the Securities Division. Note: The ability
to trade these baskets will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of trade.
Other disclosures
All MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI
intellectual property may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices.
This information is provided on an “as is” basis, and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Neither MSCI, any
of its affiliates nor any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with
respect to this information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI, its affiliates and any such third party hereby expressly disclaim all
warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of
the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data have any liability for any
direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. MSCI and the
MSCI indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) were developed by and is the exclusive property
of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
wwwww26
我们，Anders Nielsen、 彼得·欧品海默、 Charles P. Himmelberg，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。此
外，我们的薪金的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。
我们，杰夫·可瑞、 Francesco Garzarelli、 Fiona Lake，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们的个人看法，没有受到公司业务或客户关系因素
的影响。
高盛信息披露
评级分布/投资银行关系
高盛投资研究部的全球研究覆盖范围
评级分布
买入
持有
投资银行关系
卖出
买入
持有
卖出
全球
32%
54%
14%
53%
45%
36%
截至 2014 年 1 月 1 日，高盛全球投资研究部对 3,637 种股票评定了投资评级。高盛给予股票在各种地区投资名单中的买入和卖出评级；未给予这些评级的股
票被视为中性评级，根据纳斯达克／纽约证券交易所的披露要求，这些评级分别对应买入，持有及卖出。详情见以下“公司评级，研究行业及评级和相关定义”部
分。
美国法定披露
任何本报告中研究企业所需的特定公司法定披露见上文：包括即将进行交易的承销商或副承销商，1%或其他股权，特定服务的补偿，客户关系种类，之前担任
承销商或副承销商的公开发行，担任董事，担任股票做市及／或专家的角色。高盛通常担任本报告中涉及的固定收益证券的做市商，并常作为这些证券的交易
对手。
以下为额外要求的披露： 股权及重大利益冲突: 高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下专业人员及其家庭成员持有分析师负责研究的任何公司的证券。 分析师
薪酬: 分析师薪酬部分取决于高盛的盈利，其中包括投资银行的收入。 分析师担任高级职员或董事: 高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下人员及其家庭成员担
任分析师负责研究的任何公司的高级职员、董事、顾问委员会成员或雇员。 非美国分析师: 非美国分析师可能与高盛无关联，因此可以不受纳斯达克 2711 条/纽
约证券交易所 472 条对于与所研究公司的交流、公开露面及持有交易证券的限制。
wwwww27
美国以外司法管辖区规定的额外披露
以下为除了根据美国法律法规规定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管辖区法律所要求的披露。 澳大利亚: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd 及其相关机构不是
澳大利亚经授权的存款机构（1959 年《银行法》所定义），因此不在澳大利亚境内提供银行服务，也不经营银行业务。本研究报告或本报告的其他形式内容只
可分发予根据澳大利亚公司法定义的"批发客户"，在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外。在撰写研究报告期间，Goldman Sachs Australia 全球投资研究部
的职员可能参与本研究报告中所讨论证券的发行人组织的现场调研或会议。在某些情况下，如果视具体情形 Goldman Sachs Australia 认为恰当或合理，此类调
研或会议的成本可能部分或全部由该证券发行人承担。 巴西: 与 CVM Instruction 483 相关的信息披露请参阅
http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html。根据 CVM Instruction 483 第 16 条，在适用的情况下，对本研究报告内容负主要责任的巴西注册分析师
为本报告开头部分标明的第一作者，除非报告末另有说明。 加拿大: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc.是高盛集团的关联机构，因此被包含在高盛相关的特定公司信
息披露中（定义见上文）。如果 Goldman Sachs Canada Inc.向其客户分发该研究报告，则 Goldman Sachs Canada Inc.已批准本报告，并同意承担有关责
任。 香港: 可从高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料。 印度: 有关本研究报告中的研究对象或所提及的公司的进一步信息
可能来自高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司。 日本: 见下文。 韩国: 可从高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司获取有关本报告所研究公司的证券的额外资料。 新
西兰: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited 及其关联机构并非 1989 年新西兰储备银行法定义的“注册银行”或“存款机构”。本研究报告以及本报告的其他形式内
容只可分发给 2008 年财务顾问法案定义的 "批发客户"，在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外。 俄罗斯: 在俄罗斯联邦分发的研究报告并非俄罗斯法律所定
义的广告，而是不以产品推广为主要目的的信息和分析，也不属于俄罗斯法律所界定的评估行为。 新加坡: 可从高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司编号：
198602165W）获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料。 台湾: 本信息仅供参考，未经允许不得翻印。投资者应当谨慎考虑他们自身的投资风险，投资
结果由投资者自行负责。 英国: 在英国根据金融市场行为监管局的定义可被分类为私人客户的人士参阅本报告的同时应当参阅高盛以往对本报告研究企业的研
究报告，并应当参考高盛国际已经发给这些客户的风险警告资料。该风险警告资料复本，以及本报告中采用部分金融辞汇的解释可向高盛国际索取。
欧盟: 与欧盟指令 2003/126/EC 第四章(1)(d)和第六章(2)有关的披露信息可参见 http://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html，其中列明了欧洲在管理投
资研究方面利益冲突的政策。
日本: 高盛证券株式会社是依据《金融工具与交易法》、在关东财务局注册（注册号：No. 69）的金融工具交易商，同时也是日本证券业协会和日本金融期货业
协会的成员。股票买卖需要缴纳与客户事先约定的佣金及消费税。关于日本证券交易所、日本证券交易商协会或日本证券金融公司所要求的适用的信息披露，
请参见与公司有关的法定披露部分。
公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义
买入、中性、卖出：分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单。一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定。
任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级。每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35%的股票评级为买入、10-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来
管理该地区的投资名单；但是，在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同。地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回
报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。
潜在回报：代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在
每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明。
研究行业及评级：每个行业研究的所有股票名单可登陆 http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html 通过主要分析师、股票和行业进行查询。分析师给出下列评级中
的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及／或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。 具吸引力(A)：未来 12 个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及／或估
2014 年 4 月 11 日
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值。 中性(N)：未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及／或估值持平。 谨慎(C)：未来 12 个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及／或估
值。
暂无评级(NR)：在高盛于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下，投资评级和目标价格已经根据高盛的政策予以除去。
暂停评级(RS)：由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标，或在发表报告方面存在法律、监管或政策的限制，我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价
格目标。此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效，因此投资者不应依赖该等资料。 暂停研究(CS)：我们已经暂停对该公司的研究。
没有研究(NC)：我们没有对该公司进行研究。 不存在或不适用(NA)：此资料不存在或不适用。 无意义(NM)：此资料无意义，因此不包括在报告内。
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全球产品；分发机构
高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户制作并分发研究产品。高盛分布在其全球各办事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究，以及宏观经济、货
币、商品及投资组合策略的研究。本研究报告在澳大利亚由 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd（ABN 21 006 797 897）分发；在巴西由 Goldman Sachs do
Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.分发；在加拿大由 Goldman Sachs Canada Inc 或高盛集团分发；在香港由高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司分
发；在印度由高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司分发；在日本由高盛证券株式会社分发；在韩国由高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司分发；在新西兰由
Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited 分发；在俄罗斯由高盛 OOO 分发；在新加坡由高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司号：198602165W）分发；在美国由高盛
集团分发。高盛国际已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发。
欧盟：高盛国际（由审慎监管局授权并接受金融市场行为监管局和审慎监管局的监管）已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发；Goldman Sachs AG 和 Goldman
Sachs International Zweigniederlassung Frankfurt（由联邦金融监管局监管）可能也会在德国分发。
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一般性披露
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中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告 服务商
本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。除了与高盛相关的披露，本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客
户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研究，但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报
告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。
高盛是一家集投资银行、投资管理和证券经纪业务于一身的全球性综合服务公司。高盛全球投资研究部所研究的大部分公司与我们保持着投资银行业务和其它
业务关系。美国证券经纪交易商高盛是
SIPC 的成员(http://www.sipc.org)。
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我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我
们的资产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。
本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高盛销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场
价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评
级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。
我们以及我们的关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，
担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。
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在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也没有考
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虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见，包括税务意
见。本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本
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金。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。
某些交易，包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易，有很大的风险，因此并不适合所有投资者。投资者可以向高盛销售代表取得或通过
http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp 取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品，例如，期权差价结构产
品，其交易成本可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。
所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在我们的内部客户网上并向所有客户同步提供。并非所有研究内容都转发给我们的客户或者向第三方整合者提供，高
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盛也并不对由第三方整合者转发的我们研究报告承担任何责任。有关某只证券的所有研究报告或数据，请联络您的销售代表或登陆
http://360.gs.com。 www.jztzw.
披露信息可以查阅 http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html 或向研究合规部索取，地址是 200 West Street，New York，NY 10282。
高盛版权所有 © 2014 年
未经高盛集团公司事先书面同意，本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或(ii)再次分发。
高华证券信息披露
一般披露
本报告在中国由高华证券分发。高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。
本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客户也不应该依赖该信息是
准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研究，但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的
时候不定期地出版。
中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商
www.jztzw.net
高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构，从事投资银行业务。高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关
系。
我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我
们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。
本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券
市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基
本评级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。
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高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，担
任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。
在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别
客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见，包括税务意见。本报告
全球投资研究
28
2014 年 4 月 11 日
美洲
中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。外汇汇率
波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。
某些交易，包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易，有很大的风险，因此并不适合所有投资者。投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过
http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp 取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品，例如，期权差价结构产
品，其交易成本可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。
北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 © 2014 年
未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意，本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或(ii)再次分发。
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中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告 服务商
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全球投资研究
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