Climate Change Prof. David G. Barber CRC, DP Centre for Earth Observation Science Faculty of Environment 1 Fifth Assessment Report Tenure Track Faculty (13) Research Faculty (8) Adjunct Faculty (8) Barber, David (CRC) Dmitrenko, Igor MacDonald, Robbie Rysgaard, Soeren (CERC) Galley, Ryan Michel, Christine Stern, Gary (DFO chair) Lui, George Ferguson, Steve Lot Shafi Lukovich, Prinsenberg, Simon Puyan Majobi Jennifer Loseto, Lisa Mundy, C.J. McCullough, Miller, Lisa Kuzyk Zou. Zou. Greg Hammill, Mike Ehn, Jens. E. Raddatz, Rick Gosselin, Michel Hanesiak, John Hubert, Casey Papakyriakou, Tim Ogi, Masayo Wang, Feiyue Halden, Norman 23 MSc, 20 PhD, 15 PDF, 28 Tech/admin = 115 staff Iacozza, John The Observational Record - Global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 climatology Hansen et al. 2014 Global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 climatology Hansen et al. 2006 Our addiction to fossil fuels: •  1990 emission = 20 billion tons •  2013 emission = 32 billion tons •  Natural rate of increase = 0.0001 ppm/yr •  2000 rate of increase = 2.5ppm/yr •  2030 rate expectation = 5ppm/yr Broecker, 2014 Our warming planet: •  2013 tied with 2009 and 2006 for the seventh warmest year since 1880. •  With the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the warmest years on record NASA GISS Sea Ice – dynamic over many scales 2011 2012 8 Industrialization of the Arctic 9 The Polar Vortex Effect on our climate? Warm ocean cold continent hypothesis • Decrease in gradient between the tropics and pole • Slows eastward progression of Robsby waves • Leads to persistence at mid latitudes • Increase potential for extreme weather (droughts, floods, heatwaves, coldspells) Francis and Vavrus, 2012 Global Surface T° Friday, April 25, 2014 7:32 am Our Cold Winter (Ogi et al. 2014) Climate: •  Change •  Varability Manitoba effects: 2. 1. 1.  Rising Permafrost Temperatures 2.  Thinning Ice 3. 3.  Forest Fires 5. 4.  Ecological Changes 4. 5.  Extreme Weather 6.  Less Soil Moisture 7.  Flooding 6. 7. Source: gov.mb.ca Increased Hydrological Cycle (now underway) Source: IPCC, SPM05 Moderate increases in precipitation since 55 the mid-1990s have doubled average runoff and caused more frequent flooding 53 in the Red River valley. 500 400 600 700 51 49 800 800 Precipita)on 10, 20, 30% 1996-2005 vs 1946-1995 (blue = decrease) 47 Hydrological forcing of a recent trophic surge in Lake Winnipeg 45 -117 55 -113 -109 -105 -101 -97 -93 -89 53 50 100 200 51 300 500 G.K. McCullough, et. al. 2012. 49 Runoﬀ 300 100 50 50, 100, 200% 1996-2005 vs 1946-1995 (blue = decrease) 47 45 -117 10 -113 -109 -105 -101 -97 -93 -89 n initiated the implige on the on-Churchill ies is to ng and opure and busidivided into: $ŝĕëÓë¹ŝĨ ájÓŝĜÇĜ d to use centers. e of the lved in the drology. As ability to egional level different record periods can contribute to some of the variability. Trend analysis results, such as those presented in Figure 5, are intended to develop an understanding on the direction and significance of historic climate change and not to project the change into the future. FIGURE 5: HISTORIC TRENDS FOR ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (TOP) AND ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (BOTTOM) FOR ENTIRE PERIOD OF RECORD. voluntary emission reduction objectives. Manitoba Hydro’s GHG emissions are small. They represent only 1% of the emissions within a province that represents Infrastructure Energy only 3%Manitoba’s of national emissions. Despite and Manitoba Hydro’s demands arepoint, influenced by low emissions starting the corporation has achieved substantial further reductions and exceeded •  Changes in temperature its voluntary commitments. While national electricity •  Precipitation patterns sector emissions grew •  Rising sea levelsby 10 percent since 1990, Mani•  Extreme weather events toba Hydro has achieved an average long-term emissions reduction of 9 percent over the same time period (Figure 2). Manitoba Hydro Direct GHG Emissions Reduction FIGURE 2: MANITOBA HYDRO DIRECT GHG EMISSIONS TORIC YSIS l relevant acterize conditions rmation g future ature and ydrologic ar interest analysis of annual 30 years in e series Source: Manitoba Hydro Climate Change Report, 2012-13 9 Manitoba Hydro also estimates the GHG implications of its major projects using life cycle analysis. All forms of electrical generation, including renewable sources, have Co M em ge re re er Pr ge qu pr to Se In th De tiv de m les M co as Re 1, pf Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Crops in Manitoba Source: Natural Resources Canada, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective. Cost of Natural Disasters is already a key impact to our economies Cost of Natural Disasters is already a key impact to our economies Overwhelming evidence - yet….. Source: IPCC, SPM05 Climate change is here and we need to plan for it!