Hurstwood reservoir in spring 2010 © United Utilities Historic Droughts and Water Scarcity A systems-based study of drivers, impacts and their interactions Previous work on historic droughts Major Water Resources Droughts in E & W (CEH, HRW) Marsh et al. 2007 • • • • • • • • • • • • 2010 - 12 2004 – 6 1995-97 1990-92 1975-76 1959 1933-34 1921 1890-1909 1887-88 1854-60 1798-1808 Regional assessments of past droughts and climate drivers (CEH, BGS, MO) Hannaford et al. 2011; Bloomfield et al. 2013; Folland et al. 2014 1976 1890s Testing the resilience of water supply systems using historic droughts (HRW, CEH) Watts et al. 2012 Objectives The HISTORIC DROUGHTS Project Analysis of historic droughts and water scarcity: a systemsbased study of drivers, impacts and their interactions We aim to: • Develop a systems-based conceptual understanding of drought from a range of different perspectives (meteo, hydro, env, agric, water resource, social....) • Develop a Drought Inventory - a knowledge base of past drought characteristics, impacts and drivers - by integrating across these perspectives • Use the evidence from past droughts to inform improvements in drought management and communication in future Project overview Data gathering from sectoral perspectives: Timelines of drought indicators and Narrative chronologies Met/Hydro (CEH, BGS, MO) A common conceptual understanding (naive approach) Environment (CEH) Integration of timelines and narratives into common knowledge base Water Resources (HRW) Conceptual Framework Policy and Regulation (Ox) Drought Inventory Agriculture (Cran) Social (Ex, Lancs) Media (Ex, Lancs) Systems-based analysis of drought A Conceptual Framework for D&WS Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses Socio-ecological systems • Conceptual Framework in progress • Feedback sought from other projects and stakeholders (early 2015) • Stakeholder workshop (March 2015) • Delivery to rest of programme anticipated for spring 2015 Ostrom, 2009 Quantifying past droughts: sectoral perspectives Flow and Groundwater reconstructions from 1870s to present Timelines of agricultural impacts based on yields, prices and other proxies Timelines of historical abstraction, water infrastructure and management interventions Timelines of regulatory changes and milestones in policy and legislation Quantifying past droughts: sectoral perspectives Interviews with key actors in droughts: farmers, water managers, regulators, policymakers 100 Oral Histories in drought-affected communities to collate personal recollections “They were taking out the bath plugs in holiday residences and then the visitors were going out and buying plugs – human ingenuity” “…builders’ merchants locally quickly sold out of plastic dustbins. People were buying them and in a time when they were trying to get them to reduce [their water use], they were filling from the taps these bins!” “Now, some people opened up the stopcocks in the road and poured rubble down so when the Water Board came along, they didn’t have time to pick all that out so they left that stopcock on….” What do we talk about when we talk about drought? Quantitative Corpus Linguistic Analysis of drought in the news media, 1800s - present Frequency of term “Climate Change” in all UK newspapers Number of Words 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Social Media analysis of the 2010 – 2012 Drought Bringing it all together: the D&WS Inventory Example of timelines: Hydrometeorological Drought 1984 2012 2010 A typology of D&WS for the UK Research Outcome: the first Drought Inventory for the UK - an evidence base that will provide a common reference for policy makers and regulators, water supply companies, and UK business A systems approach to understanding D&WS Research Questions: Are there commonalities in the systems interactions in D&WS episodes? Are there changes over time in these system interactions? Are there thresholds in system interactions? Ostrom, 2009 1933 2010 1991 2005 Research Outcome: A comprehensive systems-based understanding of D&WS in the UK: a framework for water managers, policy makers and environmental regulators to take account of broader socio-economic factors in decision making. Improving management through stakeholder engagement Which factors which confer resilience to water resource supply systems, or create vulnerability? Plus.....? How are agricultural impacts moderated by farm, regional or national-level interventions? What are the strengths and weaknesses in key regulatory tools for D&WS management? Research Outcome: Improved advice and methods to support decision making, contributing to more effective and timely management interventions and better co-ordinated response to droughts. Improving management through stakeholder engagement • Early stakeholder engagement through bilateral exchanges between consortium partners and project partners • Stakeholder workshop March 2015 on conceptual framework (part of a wider event focused drought monitoring and management • Engagement later in project through data gathering and inventory development • Focused stakeholder activities after release of inventory in 2016: • • • Water resources management and regulation Agriculture Communication of D&WS Plus.....? Research Outcome: Improved advice and methods to support decision making, contributing to more effective and timely management interventions and better co-ordinated response to droughts. Links with DrIVER Drought Impacts and Vulnerability Thresholds in monitoring and Early warning Research • 2013 - 2016 • Funded by ‘Belmont Forum’ International group of Funding Agencies (IGFA) – NERC funds UK part • Partners: CEH, Open University, University of Freiburg (Germany), National Drought Mitigation Center (US) and CSIRO (Australia) DriVER will: • Improve monitoring and early warning systems through linking drought indicators with drought impacts • Facilitate knowledge exchange across three continents • Engage water managers through social learning to improve drought management frameworks © United Utilities