Monitoring of drought in the current climate of Ukraine

Monitoring of drought in the current climate of Ukraine using
different indexes
Inna Semenova
Odessa State Environmental University, Ukraine,
Territory of Ukraine every vegetation season is exposed the
droughts of different intensity and duration.
The aim is to estimate the drought conditions in Ukraine during
period of 1995-2012 using:
the PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index);
the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration
Index);
the HTC (Hydrothermal coefficient by Selyaninov ).
(1) Recent and present climate conditions
(3) Distribution of agroclimatic and seasonal droughts
(using the SPEI3 and SPEI7 )
Temporal distribution of sc-PDSI
averaged over agroclimatic zones
[email protected]
(2) According to monthly
Palmer indices (CRU scPDSI 3.21) extremely dry
seasons in almost all zones
of Ukraine were observed in
2007, 2009, 2012 with weakto-strong drought during all
months.
In
the
Steppe
prevailed
the
weak-tomoderate
spring-summer
droughts. In the Forest-andSteppe zone the intensity of
droughts usually less severe,
but summer-autumn droughts
are prevailed such as in 1999
and 2009. In the Mixed
Forests zone (Poles'e) the
weak-to-moderate
season
droughts were observed in
1995, 2002, 2003 and 2007.
In the Forest-and-Steppe zone
and Poles'e frequency of
autumn droughts increases in
comparing to Steppe.
(4) Using the HTC is defined that frequency of months with
drought in the southern regions of Ukraine reaches to 60-70%.
The most severe seasonal droughts occurred in 2007 and 2009
with area of extent over 35% of the country. The HTC calculated
in vegetation period as the ratio of monthly sums of temperatures
(T) and precipitation (0.1Q).
Seasonal droughts using the SPEI7 (April-October)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
S P E I7
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
-0,50
-1,00
-1,50
-2,00
-2,50
Dry conditions during spring period are prevailed at all zones. In summer
the drought frequency increasing in Steppe and decreasing in other zone.
Autumn period characterized by decreasing of drought intensity at all
regions. Extremely prolonged autumn drought was observed in 2011.
Most important seasonal droughts identified in 1999, 2007, 2009 and
2012. Severe and extreme droughts occurred mostly in Steppe. In the
Forest-and-Steppe and Mixed Forests zones observed only weak and
moderate seasonal droughts. There is a trend of increasing intensity and
frequency of droughts at present period.
(5) The large crop losses (10-43% from the trend) were observed in
years with a spring-summer drought such as 1996, 2003 and 2007.
In 2000 the significant loss of crop (up to 33%) was observed under
weak seasonal drought. Significant statistical relationship is observed
between crop loss (average on Ukraine and separately zones) and
spring-summer SPEI3 (Pearson’s coefficient 0.57-0.58). Relationship
between crop yield and sc-PDSI is weak and insignificant.
References
1. Semenova I.G. (2014). Description of drought conditions in Ukraine in the end of
20th and the early 21st century // Vestnik Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal
University. V.1. P. 20-29 (in Russian).
2. Semenova I.G. (2013). Regional atmospheric blocking in the drought periods in
Ukraine // Journal of Earth Science and Engineering. V. 3 (5). P. 341-348.
3. V. Tymofeyev and I. Semenova (2012). Recent climate changes in East Europe
and Ukraine // 3rd International Conference on Earth System Modelling, 17 – 21
September 2012, Hamburg, Germany.