Kansas Droughts: Past, Present and Future

Kansas Droughts: Past, Present and Future
Xiaomao Lin
Gerard Kluitenberg
Rob Aiken
Mary Knapp
Zach Zambreski
Department of Agronomy
Kansas State University
[email protected]
Photo: Xiaomao Lin, Tribune, KS, March 2013
Outline
I. Definition of drought and brief overview of
Kansas Mesonet
II. Kansas droughts: Past, present, and future
III. Summary
What is drought?
‘’Drought is a condition of moisture deficit sufficient to have an
adverse effect on vegetation, animals, and man over a sizeable
area.” (Warwick, 1975)
a) Slow-onset, creeping phenomena
b) Relative condition of moisture deficit (drought ≠ aridity )
c) Drought impacts spread over large areas
How do we quantify drought: Drought Indices
--- Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
PDSI Classifications
Palmer developed the PDSI in western Kansas in 1965
13 points from Western KS and
Central Iowa to set a cap for PDSI = - 4.0
****
Pamler constructed and calibrated
PDSI by using Kansas data.
****
PDSI is the most popular and most
widely used drought index
PDSI is a function of precipitation, temperature, and soil available water capacity
Three Major Climatic Drivers for Drought
Precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture
---- Kansas’ warming trend driven by increased minimum temperatures
Kansas statewide annual precipitation during growing season
from 1895 to 2012
What we are doing: Kansas Mesonet
Website: mesonet.ksu.edu
Current Weather Monitoring
• 5-min Refresh Rate
• QC-QA Reported
• Near-Realtime
Short-Term Weather Info
• All available variables
• Less than 12 month data
• With QA-QC reports
What and how do we support Kansas citizens?
1. A high-standard weather station Network
and sub-networks (e.g, groundwater,
precipitation, irrigation), which provide
accurate and reliable data.
2. A realtime Kansas drought monitoring
system (atmospheric, crop, soil, and Kansas
industry), which provide current and future
(seasonal) drought status.
3. Water use vs. Kansas Water Budget’s
performance, modeling, and assessment,
which may gain us a ‘climate-smart
agriculture’ decision system.
II. Kansas droughts: Past, present and future
--- All data sets used are published or cited in the talk
Past: Before Instrumental Observations
--- PDSI reconstruction data from Cook et al. 2004, Science
Drought Index: PDSI
Past: A close-up look at western Kansas
KSU birthday
1930s
1950s
Present: Instrumental Observations
KSU birthday
1930s
1950s
--- data from NOAA, 2014
How reliable: Instruments vs. Tree Ring Data
Are there real drought cycles in Kansas?
Past 100 Years (1913 to 2012)
Dry cycles
Wet here ?
Kansas Mesonet --- Ag-Weather Station Network
Drought frequency: Insights from spectral analysis
200 years
Drought frequency: Insights from spectral analysis
Frist 500 Years
Recent 500 Years
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in IPCC AR5
--- from IPCC, AR5, 2013
Modeling future droughts for Kansas
Results from scenario RCP4.5
--- data from Dai, 2013, Nature Climate Change
Ongoing KWRI project: Examples of PDSI (JJA)
PDSI: 1934 Summer (JJA)
Kansas PDSI Summer (JJA)
PDSI: 2011 Summer (JJA)
Wet
Dry
Summary
• Drought is a disaster/ natural phenomenon. Drought is a normal
part of the state’s diverse climate (drought ≠ aridity).
• Kansas citizens need to realize that multiple-year and multipledecade droughts have occurred in Kansas.
• Monitoring and early warning system are critical for Kansas.
Better synthesis/analysis of climate data could help “trigger” set
actions within a drought plan.
• Drought will likely play an increasing role in the future as
demand increases from Kansas’ finite water resources. Climate
change scenarios could be a base for us to make appropriate
drought planning decisions.
Acknowledgments:
Dr. Mike Hayes
and Brian Fuchs
National Drought
Mitigation Center, UNL
KWRI project: Examples of drought beyond Kansas
PDSI: 1934 Summer (JJA)
--- data used from Global Climatology Network, NOAA, 2014
KWRI project: Examples of drought beyond Kansas
PDSI: 2011 Summer (JJA)
--- data used from Global Climatology Network, NOAA, 2014
KWRI project: Examples of drought beyond Kansas
PDSI: 2012 Summer (JJA)
--- data used from Global Climatology Network, NOAA, 2014

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