2nd Annual O&M Water Middle East 2013 An in-depth analysis of water demand management: Lessons learnt from Saudi Arabia Dr. Omar K M Ouda, P.Eng College of Engineering Prince Mohamed Bin Fahd University [email protected] 2/5/2014 1 Overview Water Resources Status in the GCC Countries Water Management in Saudi Arabia Water Demand Vs. Water Supply Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability 2/5/2014 2 Water Resources Status in the GCC Countries Water Supply  Very Limited Conventional Natural Resources  Groundwater, Desalination and treated wastewater reuse are the main sources of water supply Source :World Bank , 2005 2/5/2014 3 Water Resources Status in the GCC Countries Source :Al-Zubari, 2012 2/5/2014 4 Water Resources Status in the GCC Countries Water Demand  • • • • High water demand growth since early 1970s resulted from: Population growth rate (> 3%) Urbanization and socio-economic Development Industrial Development growth Agricultural expansion Source :Al-Zubari, 2012 2/5/2014 5 Water Resources Status in the GCC Countries Water Management Challenges Source :Al-Zubari, 2012 2/5/2014 6 Water Management in Saudi Arabia Water Resources:  The kingdom of Saudi Arabia is located in an extreme desert environment and does not have any natural surface water courses such as rivers or lakes  KSA utilizes two conventional and two non-conventional water resources  The conventional water resources include groundwater and surface water.  The non-conventional water resources include treated wastewater and desalinated seawater. 2/5/2014 7 Water Management in Saudi Arabia KSA Sustainable Water Resources Yields and Water Demand in the year 2010 Water Resource Sustainable Yields Quantity (million m3/year) Groundwater Surface water Total conventional Sources Treated wastewater Desalinated water Total non-conventional sources Total water resource yields 3,850 1,300* 5,150 240 1,050 1,290 6,440 Water Demand Per Sector Domestic Industrial Agricultural Total Water Demand 2063 800 15000 17,863 2010 Water Demand vs. Supply Gap 11,423 *annually variable depending on rainfall pattern 2/5/2014 8 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast To gain more in-depth on the future relation between sustainable the water resource yields and the total water demand in the kingdom, PMU research team developed three scenarios: Optimistic, Moderate and Pessimistic scenarios as fellow Optimistic Scenario: Based on the KSA government plan for the development of water sector as documented in the Saudi Nine National Development Plan (2010 2014). Main Assumptions:  Domestic and industrial water demand will grow annually at a rate of 2.1% and 5.5% respectively  Agricultural water demand will diminish at an annual rate of 3.7%. 2/5/2014 9 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Moderate Scenario: Developed under considerations of population growth, standard of livings, and expected future economy and social needs. Main Assumptions:  Annual population growth rate of 3.4% (historical value).  The current per capita water demand is about 205 LCD, the scenario assumes an annual diminishing of per capita water demand of 1%.  Industrial water demand will grow annually at a rate of 5.5%  Agricultural water demand will diminish at an annual rate of 2 % (twice the historical value). 2/5/2014 10 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Pessimistic Scenario: The Pessimistic scenario reflects the historical water demand trends for the last two decades to the future. Main Assumptions:  Annual population growth rate of 3.4%  Per capita water demand of 205 LCD  Industrial water demand will grow annually at a rate of 7.5%  Agricultural water demand will diminish at an annual rate of 1.05 % 2/5/2014 11 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Water Supply Forecast: The future water resource yields were forecasted under the considerations of the current sustainable yields; the 2014 planned water resource yields and potential future developments. Main Assumptions:  Sustainable groundwater yield is 3,850 million m3/year.  The current surface water yield is 1300 million m3/year. The surface water yield will gradually increase to an ultimate capacity of 2400 million m3/year by the year 2014 .  The current 1050 million m3/year and will reach to 2070 million m3/year by the year 2014.  The current treated wastewater production is 200 million m3/year and will gradually increase the yield to 400 million m3/year by the year 2014  An annual growth of treated wastewater production rate of 10% after the year 2014. 2/5/2014 12 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Water Supply Forecast Results: 12000 Million m3/year 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Groundwater Surface Water Desalinted Water Treated Wastewater Total 2010 3850 1300 1050 200 6400 2015 3850 2400 2070 440 8760 2020 3850 2400 2070 709 9029 2025 3850 2400 2070 1141 9461 2030 3850 2400 2070 1838 10158 2/5/2014 13 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Optimistic Scenario Forecast Results: 20000 18000 Million m3/year 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Domestic Industrial Agriculture Total 2/5/2014 14 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Moderate Scenario Forecast Results: 20000 18000 Million m3/year 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Domestic Industrial Agriculture Total 2/5/2014 15 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Pessimistic Scenario Forecast Results: 20000 18000 Million m3/year 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Domestic Industrial Agriculture Total 2/5/2014 16 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Total Water Demand for the three scenarios: 20000 Million m3/year 18000 16000 14000 12000 Year Pessimistic Moderate Optimistic 2010 17862 17862 17863 2015 17815 16923 15757 2020 18027 16228 14195 2025 18576 15793 13125 2030 19569 15641 12517 2/5/2014 17 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Total Water Demand Vs. Supply Gap 12000 Million m3/year 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Year Pessimistic Moderate Optimistic 2010 11462 11462 11463 2015 9055 8163 6997 2020 8999 7200 5166 2025 9115 6332 3663 2030 9411 5483 2359 2/5/2014 18 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Conclusion:  The current 2010 gap between sustainable water resource yields versus total demand is estimated at about 11,500 million m3.  The gap covered by groundwater over abstraction.  KSA government has put together a very promising water resources management plan as an integrated part of the Nine National Development Plan for the year 2010 to 2014.  The plan includes doubling the production rate of desalination plants and holding capacity of surface water dams  The plan also aims to diminish agricultural water demand by an annual rate of 3.7% and to keep the growth rate of domestic and industrial at 2.1% and 5.5% respectively. 2/5/2014 19 Water Demand Vs. Supply Forecast Conclusion:  Water Demand Vs. Supply gap values range from about 2359 Mm3/year for the Optimistic scenario to about 9411 mM3/year for the Pessimistic scenario in 2030.  KSA will not reach the sustainable level of utilizing groundwater resources without strong water demand management measures  A small annual decrease in agriculture water demand will have major positive impacts on total demand and will help in bridging the gap between demand and supply.  Increasing the technical and economical efficiency of agriculture water use is not an option; it is a must. 2/5/2014 20 Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability  Water Problem in the GCC can no longer be ignored  A comprehensive measures need to be taken to reduce the demand and increase the supply of potable water.  The historical supply oriented approach is not a visible option in the long term  Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach should be implemented. IWRM shall include measures to reduce demand and increase supply  Demand Management measures includes Agriculture reform, Restricted Privatization, Consumer educations and Water Tariff Reform  Supply Management measures include desalination and wastewater reuse 2/5/2014 21 Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability Agriculture Reform:  Agriculture accounts for 80% of all the water used in rural parts of the GCC,  It contributes only a few percentage points of GDP to these countries  Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries have to enhance agriculture water use efficiency through: • Concentrate on crops that need less water and have higher return. Saudi Arabia will phase out purchases of locally produced wheat by 2016. • Improve irrigation efficiency thought smart irrigation and Crop pattern planning • Stricter groundwater wells regulation 2/5/2014 22 Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability Restricted Privatization:  Restricted privatization of water sector will increase water distribution system efficiency  Privatization should be accomplished based on well developed regulations and laws. Consumers Education: .  There is a general lack of awareness in the region, largely because of subsidies that disguise actual costs  Stricter regulations will enhance water conservation tools utilization 2/5/2014 23 Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability Consumers Education continue …..  Water Education campaigns that include free distribution of water conservation tools is a necessity  NGOs and Ministry of Education contribution is to water campaigns is essential  Saudi Ministry of Water and Electricity are implementing a challenging water conservation awareness program in 2004, where more than 2.5 million water conservation tools were distributed and installed 2/5/2014 24 Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability Water Tariff Reform  Better education would set the stage for the next essential change, involving tariff structure reforms.  The current water rate in Saudi only covers less than 10% of total water cost  GCC governments should restructure their water tariff structures so that pricing follows usage, with heavy users of water paying the most.  To the extent that subsidies remain part of the tariff system, they can be directed at guaranteeing potable water for poorer residents, 2/5/2014 25 Roadmap to Water Resources Sustainability Water Tariff Reform  Better education would set the stage for the next essential change, involving tariff structure reforms.  The current Saudi water tariff only covers less than 10% of total water cost  GCC governments should restructure their water tariff structures so that pricing follows usage, with heavy users to pay the most.  To the extent that subsidies remain part of the tariff system, they can be directed at guaranteeing potable water for poorer residents, 2/5/2014 26 Thank You Dr. Omar K M Ouda, P.Eng [email protected] 2/5/2014 27