Longitudinal data in the UK Censuses Nicola Shelton (UCL) Ian Shuttleworth (Queen's University Belfast) Christopher Dibben (University of Edinburgh) Fiona Cox (University of St Andrews) What do the UK LSs comprise of ? The ONS Longitudinal Study covers England and Wales: approximately 1% sample: 1971 onwards http://www.ucl.ac.uk/celsius The Scottish Longitudinal Study covers Scotland: 5.3% sample: 1991 onwards http://www.lscs.ac.uk/sls The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study covers Northern Ireland: 28% sample: 2001 onwards (1991 due Autumn 2014) http://www.qub.ac.uk/researchcentres/NILSResearchSupportUnit/ also the Northern Ireland Mortality Study: 100% sample, links deaths since 2001 to Census data 1991-2011 CALLS-Hub – facilitating cross UK longitudinal analysis www.calls.ac.uk Data included Census data from 1971 (EW), 1991 (Scot. and NI) onward Census data for the whole household, not just sample member Vital registration data (“events”), including: Birth of sample member Birth of children to sample member Widow(er)hood of sample member Cancer and death registration Scotland and N.I. have additional components Sampling Initial sample drawn from 1971 Census (EW), 1991 Census (Scot.), Health Card registration system (NI) Selected by birthday, irrespective of year of birth Number of birthdays: 4 (EW), 20 (Scot.), 104 (NI) Maintained through addition of immigrations and new births with one of the sampling birthdays Losses to sample through deaths and outmigrations (though all records are retained in the database) Unparalleled sample sizes allow detailed analysis New questions in the 2011 Censuses Status of visitors E/W Scot. NI Housing adaptations NI Type of central heating E/W Scot. NI Second address E/W Date of Arrival and intention to stay E/W Scot. E/W Date of Arrival and intention to stay: NI Main language E/W NI Main language (Scotland) Scot. Ethnic identity and passport(s) held E/W Scot. NI E/W NI Disability Scot. N.I. Impact from the LSs – E&W LS Data from the ONS LS has a long history of use in Gov reviews and enquiries: Dilnot Commission (2011) Marmot Review (2010) Turner Commission (2005) Acheson Report (1998) Whitehead Report (1987) Black Report (1980) Impact from the LSs – E&W LS DH and DWP: LS-based statistics key to their work on pension projections 2011 Census quality assurance: ONS LS used in calibration and adjustment work and beta-testing Impact from the LSs – NILS O’Reilly, QUB with Director of Screening Services (NI Public Health Agency) Breast Screening uptake project Led to a review of factors responsible for poor uptake PI invited to join the NI PHA Screening Planning and Review Group Impact from the LSs – NILS Shuttleworth, QUB work on internal migration, social deprivation and religion in Northern Ireland: Led to advice to Community Relations Council to inform their understanding of housing market Led to presentations to NI Assembly and discussions with the Northern Ireland Office Impact from the LSs – SLS Freeke, Glasgow City Council - tenure change in Scotland,1991-2006 Unique insights incorporated into a demographic model of tenure change Fed into a number of key strategic policy documents: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan (2012) Glasgow’s Housing Strategy (2012) Impact from the LSs – SLS McCollum, St Andrews, for Scottish Government return and long-term in-migrants in Scotland Fed into Scottish Govt report: ‘Characteristics and intentions of immigrants to and emigrants from Scotland – Review of existing evidence’ (2011) Featured widely online: Skills Development Scotland Migrant’s Rights Network National Coalition of Anti-Deportation Campaigns Information Centre about Asylum and Refugees Referenced in UK Needs Analysis Report of the ‘EU Portfolio of Integration’ project Cross UK Census collaboration All three user support units and statistical offices are working together with ESRC to make UK research possible Some examples of this Calls-Hub – one stop shop for an introduction to the three LSs www.calls.ac.uk Edata shield -a technical resource for modelling with comparable data from all three LSs – www.calls.ac.uk/more/contact-us/ SYLLS - synthetic longitudinal data akin to real data preserving the relationships between variables and transitions of individuals over time – planned OGL release contact [email protected] SYNTHPOP R tool for generating synthetic versions of sensitive microdata for statistical disclosure control http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/synthpop/index.html References Dilnot Commission (2011) http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130221130239/http://dilnotcommission.dh.gov.uk/ Marmot Review (2010) http://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/projects/fair-society-healthy-lives-the-marmot-review Turner Commission (2005) http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/dwp/2005/pensionscommreport/mainreport.pdf Acheson Report (1998) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-inquiry-into-inequalities-in-health-report Whitehead Report (1987) Whitehead M.. The health divide . London: Health Education Council, 1987. Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1988 Black Report (1980) http://www.sochealth.co.uk/resources/public-health-and-wellbeing/poverty-and-inequality/the-black-report-1980/ Characteristics and intentions of immigrants to and emigrants from Scotland – Review of existing evidence (2011) http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/340928/0113194.pdf Freeke, Glasgow City Council - tenure change in Scotland,1991-2006 http://calls.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/CALLS-Impact-Case-Study-1-%E2%80%93-Jan-Freeke.pdf Shuttleworth, QUB work on internal migration, social deprivation and religion in Northern Ireland: http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/Documents/RaISe/knowledge_exchange/briefing_papers/shuttleworth100113.pdf O’Reilly, QUB with Director of Screening Services (NI Public Health Agency) - Breast Screening uptake project http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/NILSResearchSupportUnit/FileStore/Filetoupload,288970,en.pdf