3-day Space Weather Forecast (SUPARCO) Friday, November 14, 2014, 1500 PST LOCAL CURRENT IONOSPHERIC CONDITIONS 14-Nov-14 15-Nov-14 (noon) DATE foF2 h`F2 MUF 12 MHz 300 km 22 MHz 13 MHz 290 km 23 MHz 16-Nov-14 (noon) 11 MHz 305 km 21 MHz Local ionospheric conditions are nominal for now with normal MUF conditions. Higher frequency band can be used in case of HF communication difficulty. LOCAL GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS Kp 3 3 3 Ap 6 8 12 45057 nT 45065 nT F 45050 nT (SON: 44800nT) The local geomagnetic field is quiet now (as shown in green). SOLAR CONDITIONS SN F 10.7 VSW 104 154 sfu 482.5 km/sec 133 (SSN-predicted) 180 sfu 133 (SSN-predicted) 180 sfu Solar flares C 1.0 Expected to rise above 600 km/s Solar flare activity might remain at C levels. Possibility of M/X-class flares. IMF Bt 7 nT Expected to remain under 5-7 nT Expected to remain 4-5 nT Expected to remain around -5 nT Expected to remain at -3 nT. (varied in the past 12 hrs between 506 & 442 km/s) Bz (varied in the past 12 hrs between 8.2 & 3.5 nT) -0.4 nT (varied in the past 12 hrs between -2 & +6.8 nT) Expected to remain under 700 km/s Flare activity might remain at C levels. Chances of M/X-class flares. Solar conditions are low to moderate with background X-ray flux at C-class levels. Local HF working frequencies are nominal compared to monthly average predicted values. Daily Sun: 14 November 2014 Quiet local geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions are observed for today. Solar activity is at low levels. AR 2205 and AR 2208 are the active regions on the solar disk from which AR 2208 has the tendency to erupt strong solar flares. AR 2205 AR 2208 Currently there are 02 CHs on the solar limb from which high speed solar wind stream is expected. 2-Day Forecasts Due to coronal hole, the solar wind speed is expected to elevate and the local geomagnetic conditions might get slightly unsettled on the 16th of Nov as anticipated. Moderate solar activity is likely to follow. X-class solar flare(s) might erupt from the active regions in case if its complexity persists for the next 2 days. foF2 DEFINITIONS OF TERMINOLOGIES USED IN THIS SUMMARY Maximum frequency of F2-layer of the ionosphere h’F2 Virtual height of the F2-layer MUF Maximum usable frequency for 3000 km Kp, Max Kp Planetary index defining geomagnetic conditions, predicted value during geomagnetic unsettled conditions Ap, Max Ap Planetary A index defining geomagnetic conditions, predicted value during geomagnetic unsettled conditions Magnitude of the total geomagnetic field vector (unit in nano Teslas) F SON, difference ISP Sonmiani Geomagnetic Observatory mean value, difference limit from night time value of quiet conditions: 25-30 nT, max: 260 nT Islamabad Geomagnetic Observatory mean value SN Relative sunspot numbers VSW Solar Wind Speed (km/s) F10.7 Solar radio flux at 2.8 GHz (10.7 cm wavelength) sfu Solar flux unit (defines the solar radio 10.7 cm flux ) Solar Flare IMF Could be B, C, M and X depending upon the intensity of x-rays being emitted (each type has further 10 classes based on amount of energy released by the flare) Interplanetary magnetic field (the source of which is the Sun) Bt Total IMF (unit in nano Teslas) Bz AR Vertical component of IMF (could be north/upward/positive or south/downward/negative) (unit in nano Teslas) Active Regions on the sun currently in view CME Coronal Mass Ejection ANNEXURE CH Coronal Hole KASI Korean Astronomy & Space Science Institute SWFs Short-wave fadeouts, caused by M/X class flares on the daylit side of the hemisphere absorbing lower frequencies. Smooth Sunspot Number-it is an estimated value using a mathematical relation to forecast it. SSN-predicted For information on radio blackout levels, please follow the link: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ Acknowledgements: Images source: Solar Dynamics Observatory-SDO) Both images showing the Solar disk and Coronal Holes has been processed at SUPARCO using Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer (ASSA), developed jointly by the Korean Space Weather Centre of the Radio Research Agency (RRA) & Space Environment Laboratory (SELab). Data sources: The planetary indices and solar data are taken from the URLs below: http://www.spaceweather.go.kr http://www.ips.gov.au http://www.spaceweather.com http://swc.nict.go.jp/contents/index_e.php http://eng.sepc.ac.cn/dailyForecast.php http://spaceweather.sansa.org.za/products-and-services/forecasts-and-predictions