International Seminar on Impact of Generation from Renewable Sources on Conventional Power Generation and Grid 31st January 2014 Paper Title: Redefining the Power System metrics for capturing Intermittent and Variable nature of large RE based Power Plants in Grid Sandeep Dixit G.M and Head Adani Power Training and Research Institute Adani Power Limited Ahmedabad [email protected] 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Objective The objective of the Study: ◦ Study the need for appropriate modifications or additions of metrics that may be useful in modelling and Simulation of the intermittency and variability effects 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Relevant Definitions RE Sources introduce uncertainty as defined by: ◦ Predictability - the ability to determine ahead of time the availability of a generation resource. ◦ Variability - the variation over time of the availability of generation resources and the quantity of electricity demand. ◦ Intermittency - the limited-controllable variability and partial predictability of a generation resource. ◦ Increased Ramping - changes in the output of a thermal generation unit, often done to balance the electricity supply with the electricity demand. ◦ Increased Cycling - the startup and shutdown of thermal generation units, often done during low load periods such as overnight and on the weekends. 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Increased RE - What is changing? Load Variability-(Uncontrollable) V/s RE Intermittency ◦ Non-Controllable Variability + ◦ Partial Unpredictability + ◦ Location dependency Changed Characteristics of bulk power system 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited How does the new behavior manifest? RE - uncertainty Uncertainty - security concern Reliability issues Reliability - Security concerns - smooth integration Smooth integration - Flexibility - the key for reliability ◦ Extra reserve of 3-6 % of WRE capacity at 10% ◦ 4-8 % at 20 %. ◦ 4% of WRE IC – Pr. 0.95 = Conventional PAF Wholesale market – Marginal price-technology not to wind PDF shift of demand versus price distributions 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Existing Indian Power System organisation and management Policy and Regulation Framework ◦ Indian Electricity Act 2003 ◦ ERC Regulations ◦ IEGC ◦ CERC Open Access Regulations Technical Framework ◦ CEA Grid Standards ◦ Connectivity Standards ◦ Metering Regulation ◦ CEA Construction Standards ◦ CEA Safety Standards Commercial Framework ◦ IEA 2003 ◦ ERC Regulations 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited New Documents and Reports-RE Integration Specific India ◦ CEA Large Scale Grid Integration of RE Sources-Way Forward ◦ PGCIL: Transmission Plan for Renewable Capacity ◦ ISGF WG1 Other International Reports ◦ CAISO Report ◦ NERC IVGTF Reports ◦ ERCOT Report ◦ PJM Report 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited RE-Benefits- The Contrary aspects Emission Control against Degraded Efficiency Mandatory RE dispatch against Increased Cost of Electricity Regulatory Support for RE against Regulatory Support for Reliability ◦ Generation mix No of Peaking No of Base load Market Influence and Scheduling Penalties for negative RE UI Regulatory Framework for Cost and Emission against Regulatory Support for Innovation Capture externalities 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited So… Are the current SOPs, systems and algorithms sufficient to handle RE variation? ◦ How does the RE variation differ from the load variations ◦ RE source behavior V/s Load behavior Are current data sets sufficient to model and develop simulations? ◦ What are the data requirements to model the RE source induced grid behavior? ◦ Data on exceptions due to RE sources What additional grid behavior is induced due to large RE source plants? The tipping point -when and where? 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Available Support Systems Well developed underlying ICT network layer with WAMS developing Advanced data acquisition capability-PMU Advanced RE system technology ◦ PV Inverters ◦ Wind Turbines with controls Limited Storage capability Future ◦ PHEV/EV ◦ Super-capacitors 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited REMC-RE Data Flow India 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Modelling: The Objective function Choice Ƒ1 : Given the current sustainable carbon level, design the system for stated reliability Ƒ2: Given the target carbon level, design a system with specified RPO ◦ Given the RPO, stabilise the system with available specified flexibility and stated reliability Ƒ3: Given the available flexibilities, optimise the RE presence within system for stated RPO and stated reliability 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Objective function implications on data and metrics Ƒ1 : Assessment of available margins, technologies, configurability and current and new metrics, new technological feature metrics using modelling and simulation ◦ Given the RPO, stabilise the system with available specified flexibility and stated reliability Ƒ2: Assume new system design with latest infrastructure and technology Ƒ3: Capture the current state of the systems and components and extract the best operational scenarios under existing conditions with reasonable changes 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited The Analytics ◦ Thermal Demand PDFs ◦ Price PDFs ◦ Correlation analytics ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Load, Wind, PV, Congestion, Storage, CO2 Joint Variation analytics UI and frequency variation Forecasting analytics Diversity metrics Spatial Temporal Price 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Simulation Scenarios ◦ Generation mix-RE variation ◦ RE diversity Spatial Temporal ◦ Policy and Regulation ◦ Market Operation ◦ Equipment & Interface Technology ◦ Seasonal effects ◦ Network changes 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Data and Metrics that need to be (re)defined for Modelling and Simulation ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ • • • Flexibility - duration Ramping metric Siting Tipping point Inputs for Ancillary Services Effective Inertia RE Penetration Metrics Forecasting metric Frequency metric RE induced Ramping-Cycling Ramping-Cycling counts Incipient Data 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Redefining Metrics: Penetration Metrics-relook Capacity penetration (%) - is the installed capacity of wind as a percentage of total installed generation. ◦ gives a relative measure of the wind to the rest of the system - fails to capture the capacity factor or operational penetration levels. Energy penetration (%) - the ratio of annual wind energy to annual total energy demand on the grid (excludes any net exports). ◦ metric captures the capacity factor and operating penetration levels but as an average measure fails to account for the extremes. Maximum instantaneous penetration (%) - the maximum observed ratio of wind energy to demand (including exports) over a defined period (typically one year) at any instant in time (typically on an hour/ half hourly intervals). ◦ This metric captures the extreme of wind generation relative to other generation as exports are included. ◦ This metric can be reported excluding exports but can be misleading and is defined here as Maximum instantaneous penetration (excluding exports) (%). Both these metrics differ from the others as they are observed values which makes them somewhat more meaningful. Söder Metric - the ratio of maximum wind (i.e. installed capacity) to minimum demand plus maximum export. 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Penetration Metrics-which is most relevant? 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Example outcomes: Mapping Forecasting, Variation bands with Flexibility bands Variation Band Frequency 500 – 1000 MW 243 Region1 175 Region 2 154 Region 3 1000 – 1500 MW 58 R1 84 R2 11 R3 Thermal Plant features Duration Flexibility To be captured To be captured How to fix reserve? With wind Times stressed Fastest unit MW/min capacity up/down Such data to be captured Average unit MW/min capacity up/down For all states and regions Total Ramping capacity up/down This will assist in simulatio n Simultaneous capacity up/down and optimal siting. Maximum used capacity up/down Cycles w/o wind How to fix reserve? 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Redefining Ramping metric--Identifying RE Ramping Event Definition of Ramp? Intervals? Maxima and Minima selection and at what time? Could we identify Wind-PV induced ramping event? How do we count the no of such cycles? 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Ramping Metric-- Counting the Cycles Estimate no of coal unit load follow cycles-attributable to wind ,using the following methodology( Ref P Com): ◦ Create an hourly net load forecast. ◦ Net load = forecast obligation load - forecast wind generation. ◦ For each hour, ◦ compare net load to maximum aggregate generation capacity of the baseload plants ◦ If lower , then assume that one or more baseload units will have to decrease output, or cycle, to follow load. ◦ Unit maintenance schedules, scheduled power purchase contracts and estimated forced outages (EFOR) are accounted for in the calculation (EFOR by derating each unit). ◦ The maximum baseload capacity for a given hour is the sum of the expected online units only. 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited …Counting cycles For each day of the year, Determine maximum load follow, in MW, based on the hourly calculations. Determine no of base-load units to cycle for L-G-B Annual cycles are the sum of this daily calculation. Assuming baseload units cycle a maximum of once per day. Repeat the calculations assuming no wind generation Net load is equal to obligation load, count cycles that would have occurred. The difference between these two cycle counts (with and without wind) is the estimate of the number of cycles attributable to wind. 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Modelling and Simulation Deliverables Inputs to Policy, Regulation, Market Tipping point Optimal Siting Reserves capability Tariff inputs ◦ R&M –LE - Others Grid management algorithm inputs Planning Scenarios Inputs to Connectivity Codes and Standards Inputs to Design and configurations of equipment Expert base Optimal Scheduling and dispatch Ancillary pricing Operating Zonal Boundaries and Ties 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Defining Metrics : Interesting Data Links 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Forecasting metric: How to accurately predicted power for this variation? 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Opportunity for diversity metrics Variablity-Rajasthan 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Opportunity for diversity metrics Variablity- Tamil Nadu 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Joint Variation Metric formulation: Data on Gujarat Case 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited New Ramping Metric: Establishing Ramping Requirements 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited New Metric: Percentage of Time Ramping Capability Exceeded Load Ramps 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Adding Wind Ramping Requirements 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Adding Higher Wind Power Capacity-ramping Requirements 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Metric Tipping Point-Wind MW at which Ramping requirements are Challenged 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Metric - Duration for which Ramping Requirements remain insufficient 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Metric Forecast Errors 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Diversity Metric-Smoothening effect IJRE 2012-Ayodele 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Correlation metric-Wind Turbine P and distance between them 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Covariance Metric : Aggregation Impact 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Covariance Metric: Bundling effect on SPV 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Covariance Metric-Carbon-Wind-Load Ref.- Mark-’O’Malley 2012 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Flexibility Metric 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Impact of Dynamic Cycling Cost 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Inertia Metric 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited System Costs – Modelling Effect 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Current Grid Management Approaches 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Approaches RPS - SO Forecasting – Operational Planning-Flexibility-Tieline Capacity ◦ Such as to maximise Green Power with given Reliability and Security ◦ RE Plants to be ICT enabled-networked and equipped with Grid friendly technology ◦ Multiple Forecasting Sources ◦ Each Operator to support balancing for nation ◦ Ancillary Service Market 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Current Management in India Tamil Nadu: ◦ Older TPP Flexibility-oil support avoided Gujarat ◦ Thermal and NTPC Import for balancing 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Categorizing Metrics Policy, Regulation, Planning and Investment Metrics ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Operational Metrics ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Diversity Metrics Flexibility Metrics Covariance and Correlation metric Forecast error metric Penetration Metric Flexibility Metric Frequency Metric Forecast error Metric Impact and Performance and Reliability Metrics ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Cycling events EFOR Average Benefit-AB (IEEE) Average Uncertainity cost – AVC (IEEE) Net Average Benefit – NAB Sensitivity Analysis Metric Load Shedding Incidents LSI LOLE 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Way Forward Decide scenario Objective functions Collect and collate data Define metrics Build a Test Bed Design and build model Simulate under different Objective functions Test and Validate 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Model and Simulation 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited Thank You 31/1/2014 APTRI, Adani Power Limited
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