AIM model can develop quantitative city

AIM model can develop
quantitative city-level
climate change
scenarios
1. If we cannot go to LCS,…
2. LCS offers higher QOL with
less energy demand and
lower-carbon energy supply
3. LCS needs good design,
early action, and innovations
Designed by Hajime Sakai
Junichi FUJINO
On behalf of AIM team
NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan
アジアにおける低炭素都市形成セミナー
Yokohama, Oct 29, 2014
1
AIM Chronology and Japanese Climate Change Policy
AIM mitigation scenarios
Japanese PM’s Decision
1990
AIM start
1997
15% cut in 2010
6% cut in 2010 by PM Hashimoto
2007
70% cut in 2050
Cool Earth 50 by PM Abe
2008
12 actions towards LCS
60‐80% cut in 2050 by PM Fukuda
2009
7/15/25 % cut in 2020
8% cut in 2020 by PM Aso
2011
Now
East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Accident
2030 target
AIM members support IPCC as CLAs, LAs, and REs since the FAR.
AIM provides RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways).
What is AIM?
‐ Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model ‐
AIM is Simulation Model
‐ Technology Bottom‐up model
including more than 400 options
‐ Economic Top‐down model
to evaluate economic impact
AIM is Human Network
‐ Start international collaboration
since 1994 and we have the 20th
annual int.ws in Jan 2015, Tsukuba
‐ Researchers and policy‐makers
in China, India, Korea, Thailand, ‐ Detailed sector‐wise model for
Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam,
population, residential, transport, Nepal, Cambodia, Bangladesh,
Industry, energy supply, etc
Taiwan, Australia, NZ, USA, EU,
etc and Japan. The case of Iskandar Malaysia
4
“Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions”
In the case of “Iskandar Malaysia”
Japanese experience on
Low Carbon Scenarios & Roadmaps
+
Malaysian challenge on
Implementation of Low Carbon Visions
Premier of Malaysia provided
permission in the 13th IRDA
Steering Committee to start
the Iskandar Low Carbon
Society planning
（December 11th, 2012）
SATREPS
5
Research: AIM model apply to Iskandar Malaysia Region
to identify Potential Mitigation Options
Mitigation Options
Green Economy Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation Action 2 Green Industry Green Economy 59%
Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance**
Action 4 Green Building and Construction Green Community 21% Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy Green Environment 20%
Green Community Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building** Green Environment Action 8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design Action 9 Smart Urban Growth Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Action 12 Clean Air Environment** Total Research to Policy: Policymakers launch LCS implementation plan
based on scientific scenario study using AIM model
The LCSBPIM Booklet: “Actions for a Low Carbon Future”
1. Mobile Manage
ment System
2. Green Economy Guidelines
3. Eco‐Life Challenge Project for Schools
4.
5. Trees for Urban Parks/Forests
6. Responsible Tourism and Biodiversity Conservation 8. GAIA –
Green Accord Initiative Award
9. Low Carbon Village FELDA Taib Andak
Portal on Green Technolo
gy
7. Bukit Batu
Eco‐
Community
10. Special Feature: Smart City –
Pasir Gudang ‘NAFAS BARU’: CLEAN AND HEALTHY CITY
The LCSBPIM Actions for Low
carbon
Future
is
a
implementation report. This plan
select 10 priority projects from a
total of 281 programs to be
implemented for the 2011‐2015.
Apart from Triple Base line
actions, 3 special projects are
also identified‐ Bkt batu Ec0‐
Community, LC Village FELDA Taib
Andak and Pasir gudang Nafas
7
baru
Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Iskandar Malaysia
Project Background
Site: Iskandar Malaysia
(Iskandar Regional Development Authority)
Objective: i. To draw up key policies and strategies in guiding the development of Iskandar Malaysia in mitigating carbon emission. Transforming Iskandar Malaysia into a sustainable low carbon metropolis by adopting green growth strategies/roadmap.
ii. To respond to the nation’s aspiration for ensuring climate‐resilient development for sustainability.
Target Year: 2025 (2005 – 2025)
Background
Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions
Research Team: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University (KU), Okayama University (OU),
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Joint Coordinating Committee: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), Federal Department
of Town and Country Planning (JPBD), Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (MGTC)
Sponsorship: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) , Japan Science and Technology (JST)
Period: 2011 ‐ 2016
Research Output:
i. Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is appropriate for Malaysia is developed.
ii. LCS scenarios are created and utilized for policy development in IM.
iii. Co‐benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling‐based society is quantified in IM
iv. Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and Asian
countries is consolidated, and a network for LCS in Asia is established
The 10th SATREPS progress meeting, Oct 12‐14, NIES
10
•
•
•
•
•
•
Overall research procedure of our LC development approach
Area
Base year
Target year
Covered sectors
Actors/Players
LCS target
Quantifications of
parameters:
• Population
• Final demand
• Transport parameters
• Energy service
demand generation
• Energy device share
• Power supply
assumptions
Setting framework
Qualification of Socio‐
economic Vision
Quantification of Socio‐
economic Visions and GHG emission Try and error to keep consistency and unity among Socio‐
Economic policies and LCD targets
Analysis of Alternative LCD scenarios and measures
Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from the analysis
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demography
Lifestyle
Economy
Transport
Building
Resource
efficiency
Energy strategy
Power supply
Evaluation of Scenarios /
measures:
• Transportation system
• Energy service demand
generation
• Energy device share
• Power supply options
• Renewable energy
• Carbon sink
• etc.
11
Example of AIM’s socio‐economic part
12
COP 18 Side Event . Doha . 30 November
2012
04 Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar Malaysia
Green Economy, Green Community and Green Environment
Incorporate CDP2
Green Economy
59%
Green Community
21%
Green Environment
20%
COP 18 Side Event . Doha . 30 November
2012
04 Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar Malaysia
12 Actions Towards Low Carbon Future
Mitigation Options
%
Green Economy CO2 Reduction
7,401 Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation Action 2 Green Industry Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance**
Action 4 Green Building and Construction Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy 1,916 1,085 ‐
1,338 3,061 15% 9% ‐
11% 24% Green Community 2,557 21% Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building** 2,557 ‐
21% ‐
Green Environment 2,510 20% Action 8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design Action 9 Smart Urban Growth Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Action 12 Clean Air Environment** 264 1,214 620 412 ‐
2% 10% 5% 3% ‐
Total 12,467**
100% 59% Malaysian context
Science
(R &D)
Policies
Actions
(LCS)
(LP or SP, NPP)
Economy
(High income nation) Social
Environment
(Inclusiveness)
(Sustainable)
Climate change Problems
Co benefits of LCS policies
Quantification from LCS modeling assist better understanding on impact of proposed
actions, sub actions and programs.
Good baseline study, consensus building & Low carbon blueprint plan will help to
develop an integrated climate resilient , Low carbon framework for a rapid urbanised
city or region.
Inclined to focus on co- benefits of LCS policies
Launching of Low Carbon Future for implementation 2013
The LCSBPIM Booklet: “Actions for a Low Carbon Future”
1. Mobile Manage
ment System
2. Green Economy Guidelines
3. Eco‐Life Challenge Project for Schools
4.
5. Trees for Urban Parks/Forests
6. Responsible Tourism and Biodiversity Conservation 8. GAIA –
Green Accord Initiative Award
9. Low Carbon Village FELDA Taib Andak
Portal on Green Technolo
gy
7. Bukit Batu
Eco‐
Community
10. Special Feature: Smart City –
Pasir Gudang ‘NAFAS BARU’: CLEAN AND HEALTHY CITY
The LCSBPIM Actions for Low
carbon
Future
is
a
implementation report. This plan
select 10 priority projects from a
total of 281 programs to be
implemented for the 2011‐2015.
Apart from Triple Base line
actions, 3 special projects are
also identified‐ Bkt batu Ec0‐
Community, LC Village FELDA Taib
Andak and Pasir gudang Nafas
baru
こどもエコライフチャレンジの経緯
History of Eco Life Challenge
• 2005年度より協働でスタート
– 京都青年会議所との協働事業として、小学校で地球温暖化・エコライフ
についての学習会を開催。
• 2010年から京都市との協働で全校実施へ！
All public primary schools join!
全校実施
50
1
2005年
3
2006年
101
177
11
2007年
2008年
2009年
2010年～
18
Workbook for pupils
19
Iskandar Malaysia Ecolife Challenge 2013
Iskandar Malaysia Ecolife Challenge 2013
• Workbook designed by UTM
• 23 schools (2800 Y6 students)
• 1 months to complete individually & groups (October 2013)
• Final presentation
• No of workbooks distributed –
3790
• No of workbooks returned –
1807
• Return rate – 47.68%
• Low rate because low awareness among teachers and lack of monitoring at the district level.
No Item
1 Shut down TV when you do not watch it.
Pre‐ELC Post‐ELC
Diff.
3.11
3.22
0.11
3.15
3.22
0.07
1.28
1.93
0.65
4 Be careful in setting the temperature of air conditioner.
5 Close refrigerator soon after you use it. Do not open it when not necessary.
6 Iron many clothes at one time.
1.28
1.70
0.43
2.65
2.98
0.33
2.25
2.57
0.32
7 Do not leave water running when washing teeth or face.
8 Washing school shoes using pail instead of running water.
2.70
2.92
0.21
2.54
2.83
0.29
1.80
2.45
0.65
3.46
3.65
0.19
1.75
2.36
0.61
2.76
3.26
0.50
13 Bring water bottle, instead of buying drinks.
14 Separate waste and recycle them.
2.86
3.08
0.21
2.23
2.93
0.70
15 Use bicycle or walk for short distance.
16 Leave no food. Do not waste food.
2.97
3.15
0.18
2.99
3.20
0.20
17 Discuss with your family about environmental issues.
1.67
2.52
0.85
2 Turn off lights in a room where no one uses the room
3 Do not use too much of air conditioner.
9 Bring my own bag (eco bag) to shopping.
10 Collect plastic bags for other usage.
11 Use notebooks with recycled‐mark.
12 Reuse unused side of paper.
Blog of Kyoto City Mayor, Mr. Daisaku Kadokawa
Welcome winners of Iskandar Malaysia Eco Life Challenge 2013 on Dec 2013 in Kyoto City Hall
23
To be “RCE”
(Regional Centers of Expertise on ESD), UNU program
23
• 23 schools as pioneering batch for ASPnet (Unesco) primary
category in Malaysia
• Initial stage (2013) in competition format as a study platform
• To be scaled up by incorporating ELC as lesson component in
all planned 198 ASPnet (UNESCO Schools) primary schools
in Iskandar Malaysia.
24
Iskandar Malaysia Ecolife Challenge 2014
• Workbook designed by UTM in Malay
• 80 schools (15623 Y6 students)
• 1 months to complete individually & groups (October 2014)
• Final presentation for 15 schools – 10 Nov 2014
• Judges from Malaysia & Japan
Blog of Kyoto City Mayor, Mr. Daisaku Kadokawa
Welcome winners of Iskandar Malaysia Eco Life Challenge 2013 Prof. Ho, Mr. Isma, Mr. Jalil, Mr. Razif, Ms. Aerma
on Dec 2013 in Kyoto City Hall
visited the Mayor Kadokawa on Aug 2014
26
Blog of Kyoto City Mayor, Mr. Daisaku Kadokawa
Eco‐partnership between
Kyoto city and JB
Mentioned by Mayor Kadokawa
27
Briefing to Principals
15 Sep 2014 @ Iskandar Malaysia Information Centre (IMIC)
Briefing to Teachers
24 Sep 2014 @ Ar‐Razi Auditorium, T02, Faculty Bioscience and Medical Engineering (FBME), UTM
The case of Ho Chi Minh City
29
under Osaka City and Ho Chi Minh City sister city program
Expert Workshop in HCMC during 13th and 15th May 2014
ホーチミン市での専門家ワークショップ（２０１４年５月１３日から１５日）の様子
30
Special AIM Training Course
for HCMC delegates in NIES
on 2nd and 3rd June, 2014
ホーチミン市専門家対象
AIM特別習得コース
2014年6月2日・3日
於国立環境研究所、
つくば
31
Low Carbon Scenarios for HCMC, Vietnam 2030
Research team:
JAPAN VIETNAM
•
Kyoto University (KU):
•
HCMC Department of Science and Technology (DOST):
TRAN Thanh Tu, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
NGUYEN Ky Phung, TRAN Xuan Hoang
•
E‐konzal: •
HCMC University of Natural Resources and Yuki OCHI, Tomoki EHARA
Environment (U.NRE): •
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (NIES)
NGUYEN Dinh Tuan
Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research: Kei GOMI, Junichi FUJINO, Toshihiko MASUI
•
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) – LoCARNet:
Shuzo NISHIOKA, Tomoko ISHIKAWA
•
Mizuho Information and Research Institute (MHIR): Go HIBINO, Kazuya FUJIWARA
August, 2014
33
Working procedure
Statistical information
Legal documents
1. Collect relevant information
Other information sources
2. Discuss with related departments
Energy Balance Table
3. Prepare data input
Social Accounting Matrix
4. Integrate base year’s data 34
 Background information
ExSS
 Socio‐economic vision
 Energy related vision
5. Analysis of current status and BaU projection
Information sharing and exchange with HCMC
AIM/Waste
 Waste related vision
6. Design of Low Carbon HCMC in target years and estimation of GHG emission reduction potential
7. Design of Low Carbon Actions for HCMC
Technical report of Low Carbon HCMC 2030
Brochure of Low Carbon HCMC 2030
This study has not covered Waste sector
Political background
Decision no. 1474/QD‐TTg
(Oct. 5, 2012)
“Publishing National Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) for the Period 2012‐2020”
Decision no. 2484/QD‐UBND (May 15, 2013)
“Issuing Programs for Implementing Climate Change Action Plans of HCMC by 2015”
Decision no. 2631/QD‐TTg
(Dec. 31, 2013)
“Approval of Master Plan for Socio‐
economic Development of HCMC till 2020 with vision to 2025”
‐ Annual GDP growth: 10‐10.5% (2011‐2015), 9.5‐10% (2016‐2020), 8.5‐9% (2021‐2025)
‐ Population (mil.): 8.2 (2015), 9.2 (2020), 10 (2025)
‐ Ratio of electricity consumption growth and GDP growth: 1, try to below 0.8 (more than 20% reduction)
35
Decision no. 1393/QD‐TTg (Sep. 25, 2012)
“Approval of National Green Growth Strategy for Vietnam”
‐ The period 2011‐2020: Reduce the intensity of GHG emissions by 8‐10% as compared to the 2010 level; reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 1‐1.5% per year. Reduce GHG emissions from energy activities by 10% to 20% compared to BaU
‐ Orientation towards 2030: Reduce annual GHG emissions by at least 1.5‐2%; reduce GHG in energy activities by 20 to 30% compared to BaU
Proposal for “Climate Change Action Plan in the 2016‐2020 period, with a vision towards 2030”
Decision no. 568/QD‐TTg
(Apr 8, 2013)
“Approval of Master plan for Transportation development for HCMC by 2020 with vision beyond 2020”
Share of transport mode:
‐ 2020: public (20‐25%), private (72‐77%), others ‐ 2030: public (35‐45%), private (51‐61%), others ‐ Beyond 2030: public (50‐60%), private (35‐45%), others
Decision no. 2305/QD‐
UBND
(May 5, 2012)
“Approval of Green Energy Program for HCMC by 2015”
One Socio‐Economic vision and Two mitigation scenarios
 The Socio‐economic Vision is mainly followed after Decision 2631/QD‐TTg
Population
No. of households
GDP per capita
GDP
Passenger transport demand
Freight transport demand
Unit
persons
households
mil. Dongs
bil. Dongs
mil.per.km
mil.ton.km
2011
2030
2030/2011
7,590,138 10,869,565
1.4
1,789,630 3,623,188
2.0
67
256
3.8
509,334 2,783,178
5.5
68,339
145,121
2.1
73,485
350,944
4.8
 Two scenarios are developed for the analysis
Scenario
Characteristics
Business
as Usual (BaU)
‐ Socio‐economic assumptions in the above table
‐ Share of public transport mode complies with Decision 568/QG‐TTg with the assumption that only 50% of the urban public transport is constructed
‐ Energy intensity (Energy/GDP reduction) reduction more than 20% in 2030 compared with 2011 following after Decision No.1393/QD‐TTg
Counter Measure (CM)
‐ Socio‐economic assumptions in the above table
‐ Share of public transport mode complies with Decision 568/QG‐TTg with the assumption of 100% implementation
‐ Additional measures are implemented to achieve the CO2 emission reduction more than 20% reduction compared with 2030BaU
36
Final energy consumption and CO2 emission
Rapid growth of driving forces (GDP, population, transport demand) leads to the increasing consumption of energy and CO2
emission.
2011 2030BaU BaU/2011
Final energy consumption (ktoe) 9,404
37,894
4.0
35,649 161,818
4.5
CO2 emission (ktCO2)
Industry is the main energy consumer (52%) and CO2 emitter (55%)
 Energy intensity in 2030BaU reduces 26% compared with 2011,
which complies with Decision 2631/QD‐TTg (20%) and Decision 1393/QD‐TTg (17 %)
2011 2030BaU 2030CM
Energy intensity (toe/bil. Dongs)
18.5
13.6
10.8
CO2 emission per GDP (tCO2/bil. Dongs)
70.0
58.1
41.4
CO2 emission per capita (tCO2)
4.7
14.9
10.6
37
CO2 emission and its reduction
38
• By the 2030 CM scenario, the direct CO2 emission reduction is expected to 21% of total emission of Business as Usual (2030BaU)
• In addition to it, 8% reduction is expected from the mitigation of grid power
180
Grid power
Grid power (12.3)
160
Freight transport
Freight transport (5.0)
140
Passenger transport (3.8)
Passenger transport
MtCO2
120
Residential (7.3)
Residential
100
Commercial (8.8)
Commercial
162
80
60
(34.2 MtCO2)
21%
Industry (9.3)
Industry
115
40
20
8%
36
0
2011 2030BaU 2030CM
Agriculture (0.007)
Agriculture
CO2 emission (115.4)
CO2 emission
Proposal of Mitigation Actions and their Impacts
39
To realize this 21% reduction, FIVE actions are proposed
Sector
Low carbon actions
Action 1.
Green agriculture and industry
(Energy efficient equipment, fuel shift)
Action 2.
Green house and building
(Energy efficient equipment, fuel shift)
Action 3.
Diffusion of energy saving behavior
(Appropriate use of energy device)
Action 4.
Smart transportation system
(Energy efficient vehicle, modal shift)
Action 5.
Growth of renewable energy
(Solar, biofuel, CNG)
Total (ktCO2)
Reduction share
Agriculture
Passenger Freight Total Reduction
and
Commercial Residential
share
transport transport (ktCO2)
Industry
9,309
0
0
0
0
9,309
27%
0
6,578
4,910
0
0 11,489
34%
0
2,181
2,339
0
0
4,520
13%
0
0
0
3,597
4,870
8,467
25%
0
25
24
163
159
370
1%
9,309
27%
8,784
26%
7,273
21%
3,760
11%
5,029 34,155
15% 100%
100%
Next step
40
Timeline
Oct 12‐14, SATREPS progress meeting@Tsukuba
Nov 24‐26, LoCARNet annual meeting@Bogor, Indonesia
Nov 4‐7, Global RCE (Regional Centers of Expertise on ESD) [Iskandar Malaysia as candidate]@Okayama
Dec 1‐12, COP20@Peru (Dec 11 at 16:45‐18:15 , side event of NIES and UTM)
Jan 12‐, Osaka‐HCMC dialogue@HCMC
Feb 4‐5, SATREPS progress meeting@Johor Bahru (JB)
Feb 7, Iskandar Malaysia Sustainable and Low Carbon Schools Exhibition 2015@JB
Feb 8, The first International Forum on the “FutureCity” Initiative by Cabinet Secretariat@JB
Feb 9‐10, The 6th High Level Seminar on Environmentally Sustainable Cities by MOEJ@JB
41
International Forum on the “FutureCity” Initiative
by Regional Revitalization Office, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Japan
The First Forum, Feb 21, 2012@Tokyo
10 名の海外招聘者をはじめ、JICA 主催の研修プロ
グラムで参加されたアジア諸国等のオピニオンリー
ダー43 名の他、国内参加者を含め、合計約600 名
の参加。
The Second Forum, Feb 16, 2013
@Shimokawa, Hokkaido
坂本内閣府副大臣を始め、９名の海外招へい者、
JICA 主催の研修プログラムに参加したアジア諸国
等のオピニオンリーダー39 名、その他、国内参加
者を含め、合計27 か国、約300 名の方々が参加。
2月17日に森林サイドイベントを実施、
藤野が鼎談のモデレーターを担当
The Third Forum, Oct 19, 2013
@Kitakyushu
関口内閣府副大臣を始め、11名の海外招へい者、
JICA主催の研修プログラムに参加したアジア諸国
等のオピニオンリーダー51名、その他、国内参加
者を含め、合計43の国と地域から、約400名の参
加。藤野がポスターセッション担当。
Prof. Ho and Mr. Boyd joined as experts of JICA FCI courses. Then 2‐3 experts join contiuously.
Dato’ Ismail joined “econmy” panel discussion
Dr. Zaleha (JPBD) joined “evaluation” panel discussion. The mayor of MBJB joined at Asia Mayor Summit.
The fourth forum will be held in Higashi‐matsushima, Japan in 6th Dec 2014. Cabinet office organize the first form outside Japan in 8‐9th Feb 2015 in JB, Malaysia.
https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/tiiki/kankyo/en/event/index.html
17th Oct, 2014, Kita Nihon Shimbun (Local Newspaper in Toyama, Japan)
The 6th High Level Seminar on Environmentally Sustainable Cities will be held in Johor Bahru on 9th and 10th Feb 2015
(mainly sponsored by Ministry of the Environment Japan (MOEJ))
http://www.hls‐esc.org/
Sustainable Low‐Carbon Asia comes from design,
imagination and co‐working…
Let’s work together!
[email protected]
45

Download Report