科研費研究「豪雨の力学的予測のための初期値解析と予測信頼性の評価に関する研究」 平成18年度第2回研究打合せ会 2007/3/19 気象研究所予報研究部輪講室 Development of a self BGM method with the JMANHM Kazuo Saito (MRI) • Introduction (Downscale EPS experiment) • Supplement of the downscale ensemble experiment of JMA one week global EPS • Self BGM method with the JMANHM • Future subjects Heavy rainfall occurred on 13 July 2004 in the southern part of Northern Japan. OBS. MSM, 12UTC 12 July FT=12-18 3 hour accumulated precipitation on 13 July 2004. Left)00 UTC, Center)03 UTC, Right)06 UTC Downscale experiments One week Global EPS at JMA Mar. 2001~ 12UTC initial, T106 (1.125deg) L40 25members (Mar. 2006~ 51members ) BGM method (12modes, 12 hour cycle) JMA-NHM (Saito et al., 2006; M.W.R., vol. 134, 1266-1298) 10km L40, 3600×2880km, H=22km (operation: Dx=5 km L50 Mar. 2006- ) Same specification as in the operation before Mar. 2006 Kain-Fritsch scheme, bulk cloud physics, lateral sponge layers 24 grids a) Simple downscale experiment Initial:Global EPS LBC:Global EPS, updated 6 hourly b) Incremental downscale experiment Initial:Meso 4D-Var analysis + normalized perturbations by Global EPS LBC:RSM forecast, updated 3 hourly Breeding cycle of the one-week EPS at JMA 北半球域 500hPa高度場で 規格化 (気候的変動の14.5%、 湿度は21%) 全層南緯20度以北の 領域で、高度 (地表では気圧)、 風、気温、比湿が成分 Breeding cycle Breeding cycle Breeding cycle Breeding cycle Breeding cycle 摂動 解析誤差の 摂動ラン コントロールラン 空間分布を考慮した 規格化 成長した誤差 求まる12摂動に 対し直交化を行い、 規格化する 予報用摂動 サイクル用摂動 00UTC 12UTC (12時間予報) 成長した誤差 00UTC 12 cycles One-week EPS at JMA (Kyouda, 2000) Mar. 2001- Mar. 2006 12UTC initial 25members, T106 (1.125deg) L40 BGM method (12modes, 12 hour cycle) 摂動作成方法: ①12時間の摂動ラン ②予報誤差を北半球で求め、500hPa高度場振幅が気候値 変動の10%になるように係数を決め、誤差成長を規格化* ③上記を00,12UTCに行ってBreeding 12UTCに摂動の直交化(直交化係数0.75) ④アンサンブル予報用摂動は、直交化を行わず、 500hPa高度場振幅が気候値変動の15%になるように規格化*、 海陸での解析誤差の違いを考慮し、低波数パターンンの 0.7~1.0の重み分布をかける *QVについては、Breeding、予報用摂動ともに5割増にインフレーション (熱帯域の成長率を高めるため) Forecast of JMA one week Global EPS Initial time 12UTC 12 July, 2004. 6 hour accumulated precipitation Control (M00) Left) FT=00-06 Right) FT=12-18 (Color shades: 1,5,10 mm) Control Member M03p Member M03p Moderate precipitation in the southern part of Northern Japan at FT=1218. Downscale experiments One week Global EPS at JMA Mar. 2001~ 12UTC initial, T106 (1.125deg) L40 25members (Mar. 2006~ 51members ) BGM method (12modes, 12 hour cycle) JMA-NHM (Saito et al., 2006; M.W.R., vol. 134, 1266-1298) 10km L40, 3600×2880km, H=22km (operation: Dx=5 km L50 Mar. 2006- ) Same specification as in the operation before Mar. 2006 Kain-Fritsch scheme, bulk cloud physics, lateral sponge layers 24 grids a) Simple downscale experiment Initial:Global EPS LBC:Global EPS, updated 6 hourly b) Incremental downscale experiment Initial:Meso 4D-Var analysis + normalized perturbations by Global EPS LBC:RSM forecast, updated 3 hourly Normalization of perturbation Back ground error for Meso 4D-Var: PS: 0.7 hPa U,V: about 2 m/s in lower troposphere about 3.5 m/s around jet stream T: about 0.8K in lower troposphere about 1K in upper troposphere RH: about 10 % in lower troposphere about 15 % in upper troposphere 80 % of background error was used as the rough estimation of the analysis error PS: 0.6 hPa rU, rV: 1.8 m/s*(Kg/m3) q: 0.7 K Qv: 12% of RH, 8% of RH at 850 hPa Vertical error covariance obtained by NMC method in Meso 4D-Var 3.5 NMC分散 NMC誤差 QV層平均10% QV層平均15% RH*10% RH*15% M03p M01p 採用 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Perturbation is normalized if its RMS exceeds above values in each level. 0.5 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 Global EPS Simple downscaling 14 14 14 01p-12p 01m-12m 12 12 コントロール RA ENSmean 10 10 8 RA M0 3 p RA 01p-12p 01m-12m 12 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA MARF ENSmean M03p 8 Incremental downscaling M0 4 p コントロール RA M0 3 p 10 ENSmean 8 RA M0 1 p M03pM00 6 6 コントロール 6 MARF M0 5 p 4 4 4 Control M0 1 p,1 0 p 0 0 10 30 2 コントロール 40 50 60 70 70 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean 60 50 0 10 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 140 140 120 120 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA MARF mean 100 80 40 10 20 30 60 20 40 100 MARF M10p M01p 0 0 M10m M01m M03m 20 40 60 80 100 0M10p 0 20 mean M0 5 p M0 1 p 40 20 M01p 70 M0 2 m 60 M0 2 p M0 4 m M0 3 m コ ント ロー ル コ ン トロ ー ル Control 60 M0 4 p 80 M00M03p 10 50 M0 3 p M03pM00 M03p 40 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA M03p 30 M0 1 m M0 4 m M10m M03m 0 M01p,10p 20 M01m M1 0 m M0 1 m M0 3 m M0 5 m M0 3 m M00M03p 2 2 M0 2 m M0 2 p M03m 20 M10m M01m M0 1 m M0 5 m 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 Predicted precipitation over a rectangle in northern Japan 400km×250km. Horizontal and vertical axis is for FT=0-6 and FT=12-18, respectively. Upper) Area averaged value. Lower) peak value. 120 140 160 180 200 14 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean 12 Enlarged view - Errors were found in initial interpolation of MA 10 M04p 8 RA M03p コントロール 6 M01p M05p M02p 4 M02m M05m M03m 2 M01m M04m 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 140 M03p FT=9-12 M04p FT=12-15 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean 120 100 80 M03p 60 M04p M02m M05p コントロール M02p M03m 40 M01p M06p FT=12-15 M01m M05m 20 M08p FT=15-18 M04m 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Supplement of the downscale ensemble experiment of JMA one week global EPS ・ Errors had been included in the vertical level settings in initial interpolation of MA; DZ2 =1080. was used in NEST/Prm/CONFIG (must be DZ2=1180.) ・ Use of the latest version of JMANHM with MY3 closure model 10 Re-experiment of incremental EPS 8 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean RA with JMANHM ver. Sep 2005 M04p 6 M08p M03p 4 M10p M01p コントロール 2 M03m M01m M10m 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 100 M03p FT=15-18 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean M04p FT=12-15 M08p 80 M11m 60 M03p M10p 40 M01p コントロール M01m M03m M10m 20 M08p FT=15-18 M11m FT=12-15 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 New NHM with the Mellor Yamada Level 3 closure model Three hour precipitation at 03 UTC 13 July 2004 with Dx=5km. a) Observed Radar-AMeDAS rain. b) Predicted rain with the original MSM at FT=18 (Initial time is 09 UTC 12 July 2004). c) Same as in b) but with the MY3 closure model and the modified radiation scheme using the partial condensation for cloudiness. After Hara (2007). TKE, ql’2, qw’2, ql’qw’ are added to the prognostic variables Scheduled operation in May 2007 Difference of the results by model versions 12 TUC 12 July 2004 Control run with MA DX=10km Left :Operational version (ver. Sep 2005) Right :New version (ver. Jan 2007) 10 Re-experiment of incremental EPS 8 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean RA with JMANHM ver. Jan 2007 M04p 6 M08p M03p 4 M10p M01p コントロール 2 M03m M10m M01m 0 0 M03p FT=15-18 10 20 30 40 50 100 M04p FT=12-15 80 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean M11m M04p M08p 60 M05p M10p M03p M05m 40 M01m M01p コントロール M10m 20 M03m M08p FT=15-18 M11m FT=12-15 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 3 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean 2 M09p M10p 1 Difference of QPF by model versions 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 1 2 3 コントロール -2 M02p Difference of model physics acts in later half of the forecast period -3 40 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean 30 M04p 20 M11m 10 0 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 -10 コントロール -20 -30 -40 10 20 30 40 Self BGM method using JMA-NHM A self breeding method using JMA-NHM was tested. Barkmeijer et al (2001)’s moist total energy norm cp 1 L2 2 2 2 TE {(U P U C ) (VP VC ) } { (q P qC ) } wq ( qP qC )2 dSdP 2 cp 1 R 2 { ( P q ) seaP seaC }dS 2 Pr was computed over entire model domain below 5.3 km. Here, =300K、Pr=800hPa, wq=0.1. Perturbations bred in 12 hour forecast cycles are normalized by above total norm assuming the initial perturbation is 50% of background error of analysis: PS: 0.35 hPa, rU,rV: 1 m/s*(Kg/m3), q: 0.4 K, Qv: 5% of RH 12 hour breeding cycle from 12 UTC 10 July 2004, targeting 13 July 2004 Failure presented in the former meeting M01p 12 July 2004 12UTC initial FT=18 RR6 M03p Very similar results in different members Self BGM method using JMA-NHM The self breeding method using JMA-NHM has been reconducted. Barkmeijer et al (2001)’s moist total energy norm cp 1 L2 2 2 2 TE {(U P U C ) (VP VC ) } { (q P qC ) } wq ( qP qC )2 dSdP 2 cp 1 R 2 { ( P q ) seaP seaC }dS 2 Pr is computed over entire model domain below 5.3 km. Here, =300K、Pr=800hPa, wq=0.1. Perturbations bred in 12 hour forecast cycles are normalized by above total norm assuming the initial perturbation is 50% of background error of analysis: PS: 0.35 hPa, rU,rV: 1 m/s*(Kg/m3), q: 0.4 K, Qv: 5% of RH 12 hour breeding cycle from 12 UTC 09 July 2004, targeting 13 July 2004 Initial perturbations for 18 hour forecast from 12 July 2004 are doubled Errors in the former experiment have been fixed Initial : 2004.07.12 12 UTC BGM method FT=06 FT=12 CNTL M01p M01m M01p M03p 12 July 2004 12UTC initial FT=18 RR6 Different results in different members 100 10 8 RA M04p 6 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean 80 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean M11m M04p M08p 60 M08p M05p M03p M10p M03p M05m 40 4 M01m コントロール コントロール M10p M01p M01p M10m 2 20 M03m M03m M10m M01m 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 100 10 8 RA 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean 80 6 60 M01p 4 M03p M10p M12p M05p M11m M01p M02p M06p 40 M04m M03p コントロール M04p M02m 2 コントロール M03m M04p M01m 20 M01m 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Predicted precipitation over a rectangle domain in northern Japan 400km×250km. Horizontal and vertical axis is for FT=0-6 and FT=12-18, respectively. Left: Area averaged value, Right: peak value. In case of global EPS perturbations. Same as in upper figures. In case of BGM perturbations. 100 10 8 RA M04p 6 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean 80 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean M11m M04p M08p 60 M08p M05p M03p M10p M03p M05m 40 4 M01m コントロール コントロール M10p M01p M01p M10m 2 20 M03m M03m M10m M01m 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 100 10 8 RA 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA ENSmean 01p-12p 01m-12m コントロール RA mean 80 6 60 M01p 4 M03p M10p M12p M05p M11m M01p M02p M06p 40 M04m M03p コントロール M04p M02m 2 コントロール M03m M04p M01m 20 M01m 0 Enlarged view M03p 0 0 10 Predicted precipitation over a rectangle domain in northern Japan 400km×250km. Horizontal and vertical axis is for FT=0-6 and FT=12-18, respectively. Left: Area averaged value, Right: peak value. In case of global EPS perturbations. 20 30 40 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 摂動計算時刻にFT=6を用いていた誤 り発見 Future works ・Reexamination of BGM cycle and perturbation magnitude ・Perturbation in lateral (and lower) boundary conditions ・(Orthogonalization, stochastic seeding) ・Evaluation of EPS performance (application to B08RDP) ・Evaluation of forecast and analysis errors from EPS ・Application of LETKF to ensemble update
© Copyright 2025 ExpyDoc