Systems of Use and Technology Adoption Drew Isaacs Executive Director Management of Technology Program UC Berkeley What I wish journalists would ask: “Since technology is the basis for almost all business transformation, how does your program at Berkeley stay current?” What journalists actually ask: “Now that tech is dead, what are your students going to do?” Courtesy of the Los Angeles Times Over the broad sweep of history, human endeavor has changed little. Over the broad sweep of history, human endeavor has changed little. But the technology used in carrying out those endeavors has changed dramatically. “To think that the information revolution is over is like somebody in London in 1830 saying that the industrial revolution is over because some textile manufacturers in Manchester went broke.” Alvin Toffler What the journalist actually asked: “Now that tech is dead, what are your students going to do?” Courtesy of the Los Angeles Times It’s about addressing a pain. Mobile wireless Internet use Japan Korea Europe USA Source: Eurotechnology It’s about addressing a pain. X It’s about addressing a pain. Bringing technology to market Technology Bringing technology to market Our Goals Technology Bringing technology to market Our Goals / Their goals Technology Bringing technology to market Our Goals / Their goals Preexisting system of use Technology Bringing technology to market Execution Our Goals / Their goals Preexisting system of use Technology How many people: Own a cell phone? A PDA? How many people: Own a cell phone? A PDA? How many people used their cell phone or PDA during your commute today to: • Send or receive e mails? How many people: Own a cell phone? A PDA? How many people used their cell phone or PDA during your commute today to: • Send or receive e mails? • Pay bills or do your banking? How many people: Own a cell phone? A PDA? How many people used their cell phone or PDA during your commute today to: • Send or receive e mails? • Pay bills or do your banking? • Read the newspaper? How many people: Own a cell phone? A PDA? How many people used their cell phone or PDA during your commute today to: • • • • Send or receive e mails? Pay bills or do your banking? Read the newspaper? Listen to music on a remote server? Wireless Internet use Japan Korea Europe USA Source: Eurotechnology iMode subscribers in Japan Wireless ARPU by country – voice vs. data $60 $0.45 $50 $40 Data $30 Voice $20 $10 $0 Japan US Korea China 2002 data – source c/o Sorrent team; monthly average total revenue per user X It’s about addressing a pain. It’s about improving a pre-existing system of use. X It’s about addressing a pain. It’s about improving a pre-existing system of use. The value proposition is built around the improvement. Value Propositions What are the characteristics of a “must-have” value proposition? • The new technology has enabled something which was previously impossible. Value Propositions What are the characteristics of a “must-have” value proposition? • The new technology has enabled something which was previously impossible. • Demonstrable cost savings. Value Propositions What are the characteristics of a “must-have” value proposition? • The new technology has enabled something which was previously impossible. • Demonstrable cost savings. • Dramatic and measurable improvement in productivity. Value Propositions What are the characteristics of a “must-have” value proposition? • The new technology has enabled something which was previously impossible. • Demonstrable cost savings. • Dramatic and measurable improvement in productivity. A channel must start with one of these as the basis for the sale… and a development team should start with one of these as the goal of development. Bringing technology to market Execution Our Goals / Their goals Preexisting system of use Technology The pre-existing system of use defines what is not likely to be adopted. It also indicates what is possible… 33 34 35 “Fire” Web campaign results • 10,000,000 serials created… “Fire” Web campaign results • 10,000,000 serials created… • 1,120,000 unique customers logged into Fire site • 450,000 provided personal information • Average day: 140,000 serial entries “Fire” page views vs. other sites (same period) Newspapers Yomiuri Asahi ＺＤnet Nikkei FIRE Mainichi Sankei CNN 498,347 PV 357,825 PV 241,930 PV 213,999 PV 140,645 PV 126,615 PV 95,091 PV 31,871 PV Portals Yahoo News 1,311,176 PV goo channnel 223,619 PV MSN News 211,392 PV FIRE 140,645 PV LycosNews 91,325 PV ISPs So-net(Sony) Nifty(Fujitsu) Biglobe(NEC) ocn odn dion FIRE live door Just Net AOL 621,833 PV 565,624 PV 358,926 PV 336,384 PV 216,375 PV 205,771 PV 140,645 PV 52,963 PV 47,053 PV 35,637 PV Week day vs.Number Week end of entries 単位 （回） 300,000 March 1st to May 7th 250,000 200,000 Serial entry 150,000 100,000 50,000 First entry 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 水 火 月 日 土 金 木 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Fixed PC vs. mobile Internet use: 50/50 J-phone Ez-web i-mode 35.4 PC 49.7 Market Share of Mobile Phone 0% 20% 40% 8.1 32.5 50% 60% 9.5 80% 6.7 Other s 0.2 8.0 100% Time of access Number of entries １２ 35000 １５ １７ 30000 ２１-２３ １０ 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 Time 2 3 4 5 Method of access 25000 Mobile Phone 20000 PC 15000 10000 5000 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 Time Winners / Kirin market share by location 沖縄県 宮崎県 熊本県 佐賀県 高知県 香川県 山口県 岡山県 鳥取県 奈良県 大阪府 滋賀県 愛知県 岐阜県 山梨県 石川県 新潟県 東京都 埼玉県 栃木県 福島県 秋田県 岩手県 北海道 Winner ratio Revenue Share N＝216,247（全当選者 数） Personal data: gender 男性 FIRE Web Campaign 女性 Female 16.5% Male 83.5% 86.1% Total Can Coffee 0% 20% 40% 13.9% 60% 80% 100% Personal data: age 10‘s 2.7% 20‘s 45.6% FIRE Web Campaign Total Can Coffer 40‘s 15.2% 30‘s 40.0% 41.0% 20.0% 50‘S 1.4% 9.8 % 14.0% 9.0% Over 60’s 0.2% 1.1% Personal data: coffee consumption Less than 1 2.9% 1～3 25.8% FIRE 4～6 23.3% More than 7 48.0% unknown Total Can Coffee 11.9% 53.0% 17.0% 17.6% ※缶コーヒー市場データは、 「３ヵ月以内飲用経験者の１週間内飲用 頻度」 0.2% Pre-existing systems of use: …can be barriers to adoption, or aid adoption …can be temporary or permanent …can exist geographically or culturally On pre-existing systems of use: "The problem was that simply replacing steam engines with electric motors didn't do much: businesses had to rethink the whole concept. On pre-existing systems of use: "The problem was that simply replacing steam engines with electric motors didn't do much: businesses had to rethink the whole concept. Traditional factories were compact, multistory buildings -- the optimal design when power had to be conveyed via shafts and belts from a steam engine in the basement. On pre-existing systems of use: "The problem was that simply replacing steam engines with electric motors didn't do much: businesses had to rethink the whole concept. Traditional factories were compact, multistory buildings -- the optimal design when power had to be conveyed via shafts and belts from a steam engine in the basement. Only when manufacturers realized the advantages of a sprawling, one-story structure, with each machine driven by its own motor -- in particular, the benefits of having plenty of room to move people and materials around -- did electrification really show what it could do… On pre-existing systems of use: …and this took decades. On pre-existing systems of use: The mechanical power revolution of the 1880s… On pre-existing systems of use: The mechanical power revolution of the 1880s… The information power revolution of the 1980s… Systems of Use and Technology Adoption Drew Isaacs Executive Director Management of Technology Program UC Berkeley
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