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January 5, 2015
Global Economics
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Carlos Gomes 416.866.4375
[email protected]
Canadian and U.S. Vehicle Sales — December 2014
Canada
Passenger vehicle sales surged 16% y/y last month — the strongest gain since
mid-2012 — lifting full-year sales to a record 1.85 million units, well above our
forecast. The Detroit Three led the way, with volumes surging 30% above a year
earlier — the second-largest gain on record, as automakers sought to boost their
year-end totals.
2.00
Vehicle Sales & Detroit Three
Market Share — Canada
millions of units, 3mma
1.95
48
1.85
1.80
1.60
52
50
Vehicle
Sales
1.90
46
Light truck sales soared 20% above a year earlier, buoyed by a 29% surge in
1.75
pickup truck volumes. In particular, sales of the Dodge Ram spiked 51% above a 1.70
year ago, setting an all-time monthly record and becoming the second best1.65
selling vehicle in Canada.
United States
%
44
Big Three
Market Share
2013
2014
42
2015
40
Vehicle Sales & Detroit Three
Purchases remained solid in December, totalling an annualized 16.8 million units
Market Share — United States
52
18.0
and were up from an average of 16.6 million during the previous three months.
%
millions of units, 3mma
Importantly, volumes closed 2014 on a high and did not weaken significantly
17.5
50
from the promotion-induced level of the previous month.
17.0
Vehicle Sales
Buying activity continues to be buoyed by improving economic fundamentals,
including a strengthening labour market, low interest rates and the recent sharp
slide in gasoline prices. Last month’s solid performance lifted full-year sales to
the highest level since 2006 and further gains are expected over the coming
year alongside rising pent-up demand. In fact, 2015 will represent an
unprecedented sixth consecutive annual gain for the U.S. auto market, with
sales totalling 17 million units — the highest level since 2001.
48
16.5
16.0
46
15.5
44
15.0
Big Three
Market Share
14.5
14.0
2013
2014
42
2015
40
Canada/U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Outlook
CANADA
Cars
Light Trucks
1991-01
2002-11
Average
Average
15.0
8.5
6.5
NORTH AMERICAN
PRODUCTION**
2013
2014
15.30
14.40
2015F
Jan-Dec *
(thousands of units, annualized)
1,594
1,677
1,745
823
760
761
771
917
984
(millions of units, annualized)
14.8
14.4
15.5
7
7.2
7.6
7.8
7.2
7.9
(millions of units, annualized)
1,323
772
551
UNITED STATES
Cars
Light Trucks
2012
15.77
16.49
1,851 *
761 *
1090 *
1,855
760
1095
16.4
7.7
8.7
17.0
7.9
9.1
17.26
17.86
*Includes
tiabank estimates
No vember-December 2014.
2014. **Canada,
M Mexico;
exico ; cars,
light,
medium
and
heavy
trucks.
*Includes Sco
Scotiabank
estimates fo
forr November-December
**Canada,USA
USAand
and
cars,
light,
medium
and
heavy
trucks.
Scotiabank Economics
Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor
Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
Tel: 416.866.6253 Fax: 416.866.2829
Email: [email protected]
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank.
Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are
subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been
compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or
implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts
any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
TM
Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
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