Jan 01, 2015 - Moneycontrol

ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Contents (Click on the topic)
1.
Chana (Gram) recap
2.
Market Rates
3.
Weather
4.
Spread and Forward curves
5.
Chart and outlook
6.
Disclaimer
1
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Chana (Gram) Recap
Chana
Previous Close Open High
10 MT
Jan-15
3697
3550 3730 3745
Feb-15
3670
3550 3698 3700
Apr-15
3730
3624 3735 3740
May-15
3762
3658 3744 3744
Low
3550
3533
3611
3650
Net
Chg.
-147
-120
-106
-104
%
Volume
Chg.
-3.98 144020
-3.27 103130
-2.84 25800
-2.76
4800
% Vol.
Chg.
8.58
3.28
19.67
-4.19
OI
62320
59050
29040
5940
OI
Chg.
-11490
10400
950
-20
Volume Net change = 18690, OI Net change = -160
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
-
Chana
Previous Close Open High
2 MT
Jan-15
3702
3554 3724 3724
Feb-15
3662
3554 3662 3662
Apr-15
3730
3624
-
Low
3554
3554
-
Apr-15
-74
-74
Net
Chg.
-148
-108
-106
May-15
-108
-108
-34
%
Chg.
-4.00
-2.95
-2.84
Volume
550
156
-
% Vol.
Chg.
42.49
143.75
-100.00
OI
Chg.
126 -60
74
18
16 Unch
OI
Volume Net change = 252, OI Net change = -42
Spread
Jan-15
Feb-15









Feb-15
-
Apr-15
-70
-70
Chana futures witnessed profit booking on Wednesday after the recent upside rally.
Total volumes increased, but OI declined on Wednesday compared to previous trading day.
According to the ministry of Agriculture, the area under sowing of Gram is at 7.781 million
hectares this year while the last year’s figure was 9.066 million hectares. Area coverage under
Total Pulses is at 12.416 million hectares while the last year’s sowing area coverage was 13.472
million hectares.
The area under sowing of Gram in Andhra Pradesh is at 2.87 lakh hectares, Karnataka is at 9.40
lakh hectares, Madhya Pradesh is at 28.02 lakh hectares, Maharashtra is at 9.16 lakh hectares,
Rajasthan is at 14.97 lakh hectares and Uttar Pradesh is at 5.89 lakh hectares this year. Acreage
of mentioned states is all below compared to last year, according to official data.
NCDEX Chana Indore – NCDEX Mumbai Yellow Peas Spot spread is trading at Rs. 947/100 Kg.
As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is
forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates)
and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13.
They added that production of Tur is forecasted to be 2.74 million MT compared to 3.29 million
MT (4th Advance estimates) and 3.02 million MT in 2012-13.
Production of Urad is forecasted to be 1.15 million MT compared to 1.07 million MT (4th Advance
estimates) and 1.43 million MT in 2012-13. Pulses Rabi target is 12.50 million MT in 2014.15.
According to Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Indian
imports of Pulses were 1,796,513 MT during April - September 2014. This is higher compared
1,476,860 MT during April - September 2013. Imports were 341,008 MT in September 2014
compared to 157,673 MT in September 2013.
2
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015




Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) December estimate, Canadian Dry
Edible beans production this year will total 278,000 MT from 126,000 hectares, lower than the
November estimate. So, imports are forecast to increase to 80,000 MT from the November
estimate at 70,000 MT.
Dry Pea production this year will total 3.45 million MT from 1.53 million hectares, lower than
November estimate of 3.52 million MT from 1.59 million hectares.
Lentil production this year will total 1.83 million MT from 1.25 million hectares, higher than
November estimate of 1.75 million MT from 1.26 million hectares.
Chickpea production this year will total 131,000 MT from 70,000 hectares, lower than November
estimate of 141,000 MT from 71,000 hectares.
Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved
warehouses in MT
Location 30-Dec-14 29-Dec-14 Net Chg. % Chg.
Bikaner
16,832
17,226
-394
-2.29
Delhi
16,515
17,439
-924
-5.30
Indore
4,862
4,862
Unch
Total
38,209
39,527
-1,318
-3.33
Physical Market Rates of Pulses in Market
Date
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
31-Dec-14
Commodity
Chana Indore
Chana Ganjbasoda
Chana Dewas
Chana Vidisha
Chana Ujjain
Chana Jhansi
Chana Kanpur
Chana Bikaner
Chana Dollar Indore
Chana Dollar Dewas
Tur Kanpur
Urad Kanpur
Moong Indore
Gram Desi Delhi NCDEX Spot
Gram Kantawala Indore NCDEX Spot
Gram Desi Bikaner NCDEX Spot
Masoor Indore NCDEX Spot
Yellow Peas Kanpur NCDEX Spot
Yellow Peas Mumbai NCDEX Spot
Lemon Tur Myanmar
Lemon Tur Myanmar New
FAQ Urad Myanmar
SQ Urad Myanmar
Lemon Tur CNF Mumbai
FAQ Urad CNF Mumbai
SQ Urad CNF Mumbai
Annasheva Mung CNF Mumbai
Pokako Mung CNF Mumbai
Rate
3250
3211
3230
3251
3232
3350
3220
3325
5000
4700
4750
5800
7340
3674
3433
3455
6200
2850
2486
760
790
880
980
780
910
990
1200
1160
Units
INR/100 Kg
US/MT
3
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Weather
Source: IMD
Source: IMD
4
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Spreads and Forward Curves
NCDEX Chana Spreads
Source: Reuters
Historical c2-c3 Spread Seasonality
Source: Reuters
Comments: - The January – February (c1 – c2) spread settled at Nil. The February – April (c2 – c3)
spread settled at -74. The April – May (c3 – c4) spread settled at -34.
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
NCDEX Chana Forward Curves
Source: Reuters
Historical c1 Seasonality Chart
Source: Reuters
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Chana February 10 MT (3522)
Trade Recommendation: - None
Comments: - Supports are at 3488 and 3425. Resistances are at 3567 and 3641.
Outlook: Slow sowing progress and unfavourable weather continues to support prices. Imposition of
10% import duty could also support prices. However, weekly charts suggest that markets are still
overbought and could witness profit booking.
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 01, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER:
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to
observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not
soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to
buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is
for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal
recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual
clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be
reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM),
ADM Investor Services International Limited (U.K) nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any
person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material
should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred
to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions
including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve
substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a
stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing
on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there
may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are
cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our
investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private
Limited prior written consent.
8