Bond Update 10/02/2014
La s t
Chg .- 1D Chg . - Y TD Chg .- 1Y
La s t
Bund Future
iTraxx Europe 5y Gen
143.83
8.68
0.00%
0.00%
3.35%
16.27%
0.70%
-30.76%
EUR/USD
Brent Crude Oil
iTraxx Xover 5y Gen
315.84
0.00%
10.19%
-30.61%
Gold [USD]
Euribor 3M
German Gov Bond 2Y
0.29%
0.10%
0.5bp
0.6bp
0.4bp
-11.4bp
5.9bp
-8.2bp
German Gov Bond 5Y
0.67%
Chg .- 1D Chg . - Y TD Chg .- 1Y
1.3634
109.2
0.10%
-0.34%
-1.12%
-1.20%
1.68%
-0.24%
1,272.57
0.42%
5.55%
-23.67%
LIBOR 3M
US Treasuries 2Y
0.23%
0.31%
-0.3bp
0bp
-1.2bp
0bp
-5.8bp
5.3bp
US Treasuries 5Y
1.46%
0.6bp
-25.4bp
3.8bp
-0.8bp
-0.8bp
63.4bp
German Gov Bond 10Y 1.66%
DAX
9,301.92
0.3bp
0.49%
-26.5bp
-2.62%
5.5bp
21.56%
US Treasuries 10Y 2.67%
Dow Jones
15,794.08
-1bp
1.06%
-1bp
-4.72%
72.3bp
12.87%
MDAX
16,400.98
0.44%
-1.05%
28.54%
S&P 500
1,797.02
1.33%
-2.78%
18.39%
TecDAX
SDAX
1,224.78
7,044.91
0.32%
0.84%
4.97%
3.77%
38.34%
19.92%
Nasdaq 100
Nikkei
3,561.91
14,718.34
1.84%
1.77%
-0.84%
-9.66%
28.33%
31.97%
Source: Bloomberg
Markets at a glance
Following the U.S. labour market report and ECB council
meeting last week, the start of this week seems to be
filled with less highlights in terms of market impact.
Nevertheless, market participants are waiting to see what
Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will say in her first policy
report to Congress. Yellen will give her first semi-annual
report on U.S. monetary policy and the economy after
being inaugurated as the central-bank head on 03
February. She is unlikely to signal any shift in the
tapering strategy.
The Fed slowed its debt purchases under the quantitativeasing stimulus strategy to USD 65bn over the past two
months from 2013’s USD 85bn, sticking to its plan for a
gradual withdrawal as the economy progresses. The
policy committee reaffirmed its view last month that the
target for the federal funds rate that banks charge each
other on overnight loans will stay close to zero at least as
long as the unemployment rate is more than 6.5%,
especially if inflation stays below its 2% goal.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest since
October 2008, from 6.7% in December. The U.S.
economy added 113,000 jobs the report said, a second
month of gains that were less than the figures projected
by market consensus. In this regard, Treasuries dropped
as the report was showing a second month of weakerthan-forecasted jobs growth.
In terms of data publications, market participants are
going to follow retail sales, import prices as well as the
preliminary Michigan sentiment index this week. The
consensus expects, data this week will probably show
retail sales stagnated in January from December, while
gains in industrial production and consumer confidence
slowed.
On the primary markets, the U.S. Treasury Department is
scheduled to sell USD 30bn of three-year notes
tomorrow, USD 24bn in 10-year debt after tomorrow and
USD 16bn in 30-year bonds on 13 February.
Economic highlights
Date
Events
Country
Period
Survey
Prior
11/02/2013 16:00
Wholesale Inventories MoM
US
Dec
0.50%
0.50%
11/02/2013 16:00
12/02/2013 11:00
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
Industrial Production SA MoM
US
EC
Dec
Dec
0.80%
-0.30%
1.00%
1.80%
12/02/2013 11:00
Industrial Production WDA YoY
EC
Dec
1.80%
3.00%
12/02/2013 13:00
12/02/2013 20:00
MBA Mortgage Applications
Monthly Budget Statement
US
US
Feb
Jan
--$9.5B
0.40%
--
Source: Bloomberg
Institutional Sales Germany: Karl Filbert, Klaus Korzilius, Stefan Krewinkel, Bruno de Lencquesaing,
Dr. James Jackson, Claudia Jurewecz, Markus Laifle, Michael Laufenberg, Angela Leser,
Mirella Mancuso, Carsten Pfersdorf, Carsten Schlegel, Christopher Seedorf, Bas-Jan Walhof, Nils Wittenhagen
Phone: +49 (0)69 - 920 54 400
Bond Market Overview 10/02/2014
MiBoX DE000SLA1MB4
Last:
96.84%
Chg. -1D
-0.04%
Chg. -5D
0.71%
Chg. -YTD
2.44%
Chg. -1Y
-3.69%
High 52 weeks:
102.78%
Low 52 weeks:
93.95%
Relative performance of MiBoX vs. Bund Future in the LTM
103%
101%
98%
Volatility 1Y
Correlation to BF
Corr. Itraxx Xover
4.14%
0.52
0.79
96%
MiBoX
Bund Future (BF)
93%
Feb-13 Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Source: CBS Research AG; Bloomberg; Base = 100%
Top five highest trading volumes of the last five trading days on average*
Issuer
DIC ASSET AG II
RICKMERS HOLDING
SCHOLZ AG
3W POWER SA
KTG AGRAR AG
Industry
Real Estate
Transport-Marine
Waste Disposal
Power Conversion
Agricultural
ISIN
DE000A1TNJ22
DE000A1TNA39
AT0000A0U9J2
DE000A1A29T7
DE000A1H3VN9
Issue Date
09/07/2013
11/06/2013
08/03/2012
01/12/2010
06/06/2011
Maturity
09/07/2018
11/06/2018
08/03/2017
01/12/2015
06/06/2017
Last
102.75%
98.50%
59.00%
35.05%
101.40%
Chg.-5D
-1.19%
5.91%
-24.84%
13.06%
-0.54%
%-o.I.*
1.26%
0.39%
0.47%
0.68%
0.58%
Volume**
EUR 0.9m
EUR 0.9m
EUR 0.9m
EUR 0.7m
EUR 0.5m
Issue Size
EUR 75m
EUR 225m
EUR 183m
EUR 97m
EUR 79m
Source: CBS Research AG; Bloomberg
*Based on MiBoX; Percentage of Issued Size **Average daily trading volume based on seven local exchanges (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hanover, Stuttgart)
Top five gainers and losers of the last five trading days
Gainers
MT-ENERGIE
GUNTHER ZAMEK
FFK ENVIRONMENT GMBH
3W POWER SA
RICKMERS HOLDING
Industry
Alternative Energy
Food
Waste Disposal
Power Conversion
Transport-Marine
Last
44.00%
37.00%
5.50%
35.05%
98.50%
Chg.-5D
23.94%
21.31%
14.71%
13.06%
5.91%
Losers
HKW PERSONALKONZEPTE
SCHOLZ AG
GETGOODS AG
GAMIGO AG
CENTROSOLAR GROUP AG
Industry
Last
Human Resources
1.64%
Waste Disposal
59.00%
E-Commerce Products 4.00%
Online Games
75.00%
Alternative Energy
7.08%
Chg.-5D
-53.80%
-24.84%
-20.00%
-6.13%
-5.60%
Last
114.00%
111.50%
111.25%
109.50%
109.00%
Chg.-5D
0.00%
-0.54%
0.67%
0.93%
1.36%
Lowest Price
HKW PERSONALKONZEPTE
BKN BIOSTROM AG
GETGOODS AG
FFK ENVIRONMENT GMBH
CENTROSOLAR GROUP AG
Industry
Human Resources
Alternative Energy
E-Commerce Products
Waste Disposal
Alternative Energy
Chg.-5D
-53.80%
0.00%
-20.00%
14.71%
-5.60%
TTM*
4.12
3.36
8.65
2.61
0.72
Highest Yields
CENTROSOLAR GROUP AG
BKN BIOSTROM AG
HKW PERSONALKONZEPTE
GETGOODS AG
FFK ENVIRONMENT GMBH
Industry
YTM*
Alternative Energy
2463.02%
Alternative Energy
835.19%
Human Resources
412.23%
E-Commerce Products 331.79%
Waste Disposal
190.82%
TTM*
2.01
2.32
2.76
3.64
2.30
Long-term
DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
BioEnergie Taufkirchen
Grand City Properties S.A
DF DEUTSCHE FORFAIT
SALAMANDER AREAL
Industry
Finance
Alternative Energy
Real Estate
Finance
Real Estate
TTM*
8.65
6.47
6.31
6.29
5.82
Source: CBS Research AG; Bloomberg
Top five current highest and lowest bond prices
Highest Price
Industry
GIF-INDUSTRIEFORSCHUNGAutomotive
SAF-HOLLAND GROUP
Auto Parts
KARLSBERG BRAU GMBH Brewery
BASTEI LUBBE
Publishing
BERENTZEN-GRUPPE AG Beverages
Last
1.64%
2.50%
4.00%
5.50%
7.08%
Source: CBS Research AG; Bloomberg
Top five highest and lowest yields to maturity
Lowest Yields
Industry
DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
Finance
MTU AERO ENGINES AG
Aerospace
DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
Finance
GIF-INDUSTRIEFORSCHUNGAutomotive
AIR BERLIN PLC
Airlines
Source: CBS Research AG; Bloomberg
YTM*
0.82%
1.32%
2.09%
2.47%
2.95%
*Yield to Maturity (YTM), Time to Maturity (TTM)
Top five yields on shortest and longest time to maturity
Short-term
GOLDEN GATE AG
AIR BERLIN PLC
KTG AGRAR AG
DUERR AG
AIR BERLIN PLC
Source: CBS Research AG; Bloomberg
Industry
Real Estate
Airlines
Agriculture
Auto Parts
Airlines
YTM*
25.95%
2.95%
5.64%
3.38%
4.27%
TTM*
0.67
0.72
1.59
1.63
1.75
YTM*
2.09%
5.06%
5.30%
8.02%
5.86%
*Yield to Maturity (YTM), Time to Maturity (TTM)
Corporate bonds in the pipeline*
Issuer
Industry
Subscription Period
Source: CBS Research AG
*Target Volume (T. Volume); Focus on bonds issued in MiBoX segments
Market Segment
Coupon
T. Volume*
Rating
Maturity
Cl os e Brothers Seydl er Ba nk AG
60313 Fra nkfurt a m Ma i n
Tel.: +49 (0)69 - 9 20 54 - 0
Schi l l ers tra s s e 27-29
www.cbs eydl er.com
Fax.: +49 (0)69 - 9 20 54 920
Disclaimer: These Trading Ideas represent a marketing instrument of Close Brothers Seydler Bank AG (" CBSB" ) and not a financial analysis. These Trading Ideas are exclusively
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these Trading Ideas do not contain a well-founded and objective analysis of the securities and issuers mentioned herein and does neither constitute an investment advice nor an
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