Carbon Leakage

BMUB-CEPS-CMF-Outreach Workshop
Project „Carbon Leakage: Options for the EU“
Carbon Leakage: Risk Identification
May 21, 2014
Dr. Joachim Hein
Climate Policy
Where are we right now?
• KP II: EU 
RoW?
• EU-COM has proposed – 40% GHG 1990-2030
• Ban Ki Moon summit?
• EU Council to decide in October? Or December? Or …?
• NDCs? Measurable? Comparable?
• 2015 Paris outcome? A sort of „Copenhagen Accord de luxe“?
CL Risk will always exist as long as there is no Level Playing Field
Level Playing Field = ?
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
Ideally, one price of carbon worldwide …
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Carbon Leakage
A barely perceptible process
Source:
Eric Heymann, Deutsche Bank Research
January 23, 2014
„Carbon Leakage: A barely perceptible process“
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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Carbon Leakage
A barely perceptible process
Source:
Eric Heymann, Deutsche Bank Research
January 23, 2014
„Carbon Leakage: A barely perceptible process“
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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What‘s the situation like in Germany?
Selected Energiewende targets
NB: D„s share of global energy-related CO2 emissions: 2.4% (2011)
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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What do we actually want?
Transformation of the EU into a Low Carbon Society, yes?
How do we get there?
Innovation!
Investment!
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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Protection from „Investment Leakage“
Negative correlation between energy-intensity and investment activity for the industrial
sectors in Germany
Could the „NER300 concept“ be used to remedy this?
From the COM„s 2030-Communication of January 22, 2014:
„In line with the Union's innovation and industrial policies, the
concept of an expanded NER300 system will, therefore, be
explored as a means of directing revenues from the ETS towards the
demonstration of innovative low carbon technologies in the industry
and power generation sectors.”
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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Mission Growth
EU Industry – A Fragile Recovery
Source: European Commission, EU Industry Structure Report 2013
Source: Deutsche Bank Research
„Competing in Global Value Chains“
January 2014 Communication
„For a European Industrial Renaissance“:
The COM is calling on MS to recognise the central importance of industry for creating
jobs and growth, and of mainstreaming industry-related competitiveness concerns
across all policy areas.
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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More stringent LRF only in combination with sufficient CL protection
•
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ETSD Art. 10a (12) provision limited in time.
What will happen after 2019/2020?
Carry on with CL lists?
Or are there better ways to effectively protect industry from CL?
Need to think about direct and indirect CL!
What about the CSCF?
See CEPS report on „Options for the EU“ (next session)
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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Carbon Leakage-Protection will continue to be indispensable
Energy and Climate Package 2008: CL risk
BDI: risk of Carbon and Job Leakage
More recently: risk of investment leakage!
CL protection is not „nice to have“, is not a treat for industry, is not a
donation, …
CL protection is absolutely necessary to compensate for serious
disadvantages and cost burden that no other competitor outside the EU
has to shoulder.
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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Many thanks for your attention
Dr. Joachim Hein
Senior Adviser
BDI e. V. - Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie e. V.
Abteilung Energie- und Klimapolitik
Breite Straße 29, 10178 Berlin
E-Mail:
[email protected]
21.05.2014
Dr. Joachim Hein, BDI e. V.
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