HDB Market Pulse 3Q14

REAL ESTATE DATATREND
HDB Market Pulse
Keener Sense of Real Estate
Bringing you the latest trend in the heartlands
29 October 2014
 BTO supply to be tapered further in 2015
 Temporary extension of stay for resale flats
 Mechanised parking system (MPS) to meet parking
demand
 Overall HDB resale prices remain depressed
 Recovery in HDB resale volumes seen
 Rental volumes hits historical record since 2007
BTO supply to be tapered further in 2015
According to the MND Blog, HDB will continue to taper the
supply of new BTO flats in 2015 by about 25%, in view of the
stabilising housing market. It is expected that around 16,000
units will be launched in 2015, compared to 22,400 in 2014. To
put things in perspective, HDB has launched more than 25,000
BTO flats each year from 2011 to 2013, for a total of 77,000
flats. Notably, BTO launches will now be conducted quarterly
instead of every 2 months. The number of units launched in
each exercise will be limited to around 4,000 units.
The cut in BTO supply and increased gap between BTO
launches is expected to have a positive effect on the resale
market. With incoming BTO supply getting limited and resale
prices lowered, we may see some demand flowing back into
the resale market in 2015. This would help support resale
prices and stabilise it.
Temporary extension of stay for resale flats
The HDB will now allow flat sellers to extend their stay in their
sold flats temporarily for a period up to 3 months. Previously,
flat owners who have sold their flats are required to move out as
soon as they complete the transaction. This may create difficult
situations for some sellers. HDB estimates that some 15% of total
resale transactions, or about 2,700 households a year, will stand
to benefit from this policy tweak. We do not expect this policy
tweak to have a material impact on resale rents or prices.
Mechanised parking system (MPS) to meet parking demand
The MPS will be tested out in 3 HDB towns to meet the rising
demand of car parking in HDB towns. MPS are basically car parks
with lifts to bring cars to their parking lots and would use up less
land than conventional car parks. The 3 test sites are in Bukit
Panjang(beside block 259A Bangkit Road), Changi Village(behind
block 1 Changi Village Road) and Yishun(beside block 666A
Yishun Avenue 4). It is hoped that the MPS would alleviate the
high parking demand in these areas. The new MPS, with 60 car
park lots, should be up and running before the end of 2015.
See terms of use on last page.
Wong Xian Yang
Manager
Christine Li
Head
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.orangetee.com
Follow us on
HDB supply continues to taper in 2015
Source: MND Blog, OrangeTee Research
Mechanised car park at Bukit Panjang
Source: MND Blog
Page 1 | 4
| Singapore | Residential |
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
At a glance
HDB resale prices fall 1.7% in 3Q14
HDB resale prices continued to slide
for the 5th consecutive quarter since
3Q13, falling 1.7% q-o-q in 3Q14. On
a y-o-y basis, prices are down 6%.
The decline in resale prices do not
yet show any signs of slowing down
and could continue on this trend till
mid-2015. The lower prices is due to
a confluence of factors such as the
MSR tightening and stricter PR
rulings.
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 2: HDB Resale volume by room type
HDB resale transactions edge higher
Resale
volumes
continued
to
strengthened,
recording
4,513
transactions in 3Q14, compared to
4,389
transactions
in
2Q14,
representing a gain of 2.8% q-o-q.
The increase in volumes can be due
to increasing buyers coming into the
market as resale prices have become
more attractive. Though transaction
volumes look to be recovering, it is
still significantly below volumes
(YTD) from previous years.
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 3: HDB Rental volume by room type
Rental volume hits historical record
3Q14 rental volumes jumped 5.5% qo-q in 3Q14, recording 8,923 rental
transactions,
8,455
transactions
compared to 2Q14. This is the highest
quarterly number of transactions
recorded according to available data
since 2007. The rise in rental volumes
could be due to owners deciding to
rent instead of sell in view of
declining resale prices. Current
estimated HDB rental yields average
around 6.5%.
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 2 | 4
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 1: HDB Resale Price Index
Exhibit 4: HDB Towns median resale price by room type
3Q14
Region
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
North
North
North
North-East
North-East
North-East
North-East
North-East
East
East
East
West
West
West
West
West
West
Town
Bishan
Bukit Merah
Bukit Timah
Central
Geylang
Kallang/Whampoa
Marine Parade
Queenstown
Toa Payoh
Sembawang
Woodlands
Yishun
Ang Mo Kio
Hougang
Punggol
Sengkang
Serangoon
Bedok
Pasir Ris
Tampines
Bukit Batok
Bukit Panjang
Choa Chu Kang
Clementi
Jurong East
Jurong West
3-Room
Median
QoQ
Resale
Absolute
Price
Change
*
0
378,000
-12,000
*
0
432,500
0
300,000
-11,500
350,000
7,000
*
0
368,000
11,000
340,000
10,000
0
283,000
-31,500
305,000
-6,000
338,000
-17,000
318,000
-7,000
0
*
0
360,000
3,200
320,000
-15,000
*
0
347,500
-7,500
301,500
-18,500
312,500
0
*
0
365,000
-8,000
320,000
-3,000
305,000
-8,000
4-Room
Median
QoQ
Resale
Absolute
Price
Change
525,000
8,500
660,000
15,000
0
*
0
*
0
570,000
40,000
*
0
705,000
5,000
540,000
-50,000
396,500
-3,500
380,000
-4,500
368,000
-12,000
465,000
-13,000
415,000
-16,500
433,000
-29,500
448,000
8,000
475,000
20,000
425,000
-10,000
422,300
-5,700
445,000
-11,500
420,000
2,000
388,000
-12,000
380,000
-15,000
520,000
3,500
415,000
0
390,000
-10,000
5-Room
Median
QoQ
Resale
Absolute
Price
Change
*
0
786,500
6,500
*
0
*
0
*
0
670,000
0
*
0
*
0
*
0
448,000
-17,000
436,300
-13,700
475,000
0
*
0
513,500
-7,900
476,500
-30,300
479,500
-16,000
*
0
614,000
39,000
501,500
-2,500
532,000
-23,000
*
0
461,500
-16,900
468,000
-20,000
*
0
*
0
470,000
-10,000
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
( * ) refer to cases where there are less than 15 resale transactions recorded
( - ) refer to cases where there are no resale transactions
Exhibit 5: Top Gainers/ Losers from 3Q13 to 3Q14 (4 room flats)
Top Gainers
Rank
Region
Town
1 Central
Kallang/Whampoa
2 Central
Queenstown
3 Central
Bukit Merah
4 West
Jurong East
5 Central
Bishan
YoY %
5%
2%
-2%
-5%
-5%
Top Losers
Rank
Region
Town
1 West
Choa Chu Kang
2 Central
Toa Payoh
3 North-East Punggol
4 West
Bukit Panjang
5 West
Jurong West
YoY %
-13%
-12%
-11%
-10%
-10%
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
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Page 3 | 4
| Singapore | Residential |
Date
Date
3Q14
3-Room
Median
Rents
4-Room
QoQ
Absolute
Change
Median
Rents
5-Room
QoQ
Absolute
Change
Median
Rents
QoQ
Absolute
Change
Region
Town
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
North
North
Bishan
Bukit Merah
Bukit Timah
Central
Geylang
Kallang/ Whampoa
Marine Parade
Queenstown
Toa Payoh
Sembawang
Woodlands
2,100
2,200
*
2,400
2,100
2,100
2,200
2,200
2,100
1,650
0
-50
0
0
100
0
0
-50
0
0
-50
2,600
2,970
*
3,000
2,500
2,600
2,480
3,000
2,630
2,100
2,050
-50
70
0
50
-100
-100
-20
0
-70
-100
50
2,900
3,300
*
*
2,800
3,000
*
3,230
2,900
2,300
2,250
-100
0
0
0
0
70
0
30
0
50
50
North
North-East
North-East
North-East
North-East
North-East
East
East
East
West
West
West
West
West
West
Yishun
Ang Mo Kio
Hougang
Punggol
Sengkang
Serangoon
Bedok
Pasir Ris
Tampines
Bukit Batok
Bukit Panjang
Choa Chu Kang
Clementi
Jurong East
Jurong West
1,800
2,000
1,900
*
*
2,000
2,000
*
2,100
1,900
1,800
*
2,200
2,000
1,900
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-10
0
0
0
0
-100
2,200
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,200
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,400
2,350
2,000
2,150
2,800
2,500
2,500
0
-100
0
0
-50
-50
0
0
0
-50
0
-50
100
0
0
2,350
2,700
2,500
2,300
2,400
2,600
2,600
2,500
2,600
2,500
2,100
2,300
2,880
2,700
2,600
-50
-100
0
-50
50
-100
0
0
0
-50
-100
0
-120
0
-50
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
( * ) refer to cases where there are less than 15 rental transactions recorded
( - ) refer to cases where there are no rental transactions
Exhibit 7: HDB Towns estimated rental yields by room type
Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research
Page 4 | 4
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Exhibit 6: HDB Towns median rents by room type

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