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ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update
September 2014
Crops wilted or only growing very slowly in lowlands
Projected food security outcomes, September 2014
KEY MESSAGES

An early end of Belg rains in May and below-normal
cumulative June to September Kiremt rains mean that many
long-cycle crops wilted or are growing more slowly along the
Rift Valley in central Oromia and Southern Nations,
Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). Slower growth
and wilting are also observed in eastern Oromia, Waghimra
Zone in Amhara, and Raya Azebo Woreda in Tigray. With a
likely much below-average Meher harvest in these areas,
households will more quickly deplete their food stocks, likely
becoming more food insecure as these deplete after
December.

Despite the Karma/Karan rains, pasture has not fully
recovered in most northern pastoral areas. Not yet having any
increased livestock productivity, poor households will
continue to rely on humanitarian assistance through
December and beyond.
Projected food security outcomes, October to
December 2014
CURRENT SITUATION

In eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and central and eastern
Oromia Region, rainfall was below average at the beginning
of the Kiremt rains from June through much of August, but in
late August and early September rainfall amounts were more
normal. However, cumulative June to September Kiremt
rainfall remains below average in many areas. Most crops are
currently at the late growth stage, and normally, more crops
would be at the flowering stage. In particular, maize in the
central and eastern Oromia is stunted or wilted. Thus, green
maize is not yet available for consumption.

In the lowlands of Waghimra Zone in Amhara, Raya Azebo in
This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for
Tigray, West Arsi, East Shewa, and East and West Hararghe
emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic
Zones in Oromia Region, most long-cycle crops wilted due to
food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here.
dry conditions. In some, replanting has occurred with shortcycle crops, which are at the germination or very early growth stages.

In eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and central and eastern Oromia Region, the near normal amounts of rain fell in late
August and early September increased pasture and drinking water availability including in the areas that were very dry
during the February to May Belg and since the start of the Kiremt in June/July. Ponds in the lowlands of eastern Oromia
have not fully replenished, but the water supply for livestock has increased. Cattle that had been migrated to river valleys
are being returned to areas closer to homesteads. However, livestock body conditions still have not recovered fully.

Since the start of the Kiremt rains in June, the rainfall has been near average in amount with normal distribution in most
of western Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). Both short- and long-cycle Meher crops are
at their normal growth stages, mostly at flowering or seed-setting.
FEWS NET ETHIOPIA
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www.fews.net/Ethiopia
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect
the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States
Government
Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia
ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update
September 2014

However, in the lowlands of Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Halaba, parts of Sidama and Silte, and eastern Gurage Zone in
SNNPR, there was almost no rain in July and early August. More normal amounts of rain fell at the end of August and in
early September. Despite recent rains, cumulative June to September rainfall in these areas remains below average. The
early withdrawal of Belg rains and late start of Kiremt rains resulted a longer dry season from early May through the end
of July when usually it would be concentrated in the month of June. This resulted in dried up or stunted crops, both longcycle crops and Belg crops, including maize, haricot bean, pepper, sesame, and sorghum. Some plots were replanted with
wheat or teff in late July, but others were left fallow. Green maize and green pepper consumption normally starts at the
end of August, but these crops are currently not available in the areas they are grown in Halaba, Silte, and Gurage Zones.

With rain in August and early September, cumulative July to September Karma/Karan rainfall was near average in amount
and normally distribution in most parts of Afar and northern Somali Region. However, distribution was poorer and
amounts were less in Gabi (Formerly Zone 3), some parts of Awsi (Formerly Zone 1) in Afar Region, and Sitti Zone in
Somali Region. However, due to very dry conditions through July, vegetation has not yet fully recovered, so forage
availability is much lower than usual. Accordingly, no significant improvement in livestock productivity has been
observed. Due to lack of forage and water, the World Food Program (WFP) estimates that 11,000 livestock have died
since June in Awash Fentale, Amibara, and Gewane Woredas of Gabi (formerly Zone 3). Approximately, 100,000 livestock
are in very poor condition. Livestock from these areas have been migrated to Berehet and Mingar Woredas of Amhara
and Mojo Woreda of Oromia. Emergency fodder is being provided by the government. Water availability increased since
the start of the rains, and currently, only three water trucks are operating in Berhale Woreda compared to 10 operating
across Afar in May/June.

In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, the below-average March to May Gu/Genna rains meant there was early
depletion of pasture and water during the June to September dry season. With fewer resources, livestock body conditions
have deteriorated, and productivity has further declined. Livestock are concentrated in the small areas where pasture
and water conditions are better. The high concentration of a large number of animals though is quickly depleting water
and pasture resources, which has caused conflict in at least one area. Concentration has also increased the risk of
livestock disease outbreaks. Poor livestock productivity has limited access to milk, which is leading to declining nutritional
status of children. Some livestock deaths have been reported in August in Afder and Shebelle (formerly Gode) Zones in
Somali Region and Borena Zone in Oromia Region. Water trucking is ongoing in Shebelle (formerly Gode), Afder, Liben,
and Dollo (formerly Warder) Zones of Somali Region. Unusual, off-season rains fell for around three days in late August,
leading to a minor increase in browse and water availability in Jarar (formerly Degehabur) and Nogob (formerly Fik)
Zones.

Markets: Grain prices were mostly stable in most of Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and highland areas in SNNPR. But, grain
prices increased slightly from July to August in lowland areas due to limited local Belg supplies in many areas.

Livestock prices were generally stable in most of Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and SNNPR. However, cattle prices
significantly declined from July to August in Halaba, Silte, and Gurage Zones in SNNPR due to poor body conditions.
Similarly, due to the seasonal decline in external demand before the Hajj exports start and increased supply as
households seek to sell livestock to purchase food, livestock prices declined in southern and southeastern pastoral areas.
With an increase in staple food prices in these markets, the livestock-to-cereal terms of trade decreased.

Flooding: Heavy rains since July in highland areas in Oromia and Amhara caused flooding of the Awash River and some
seasonal rivers in Buremoditu, Gewane, and Awash Fentale Woredas in Gabi (formerly Zone 3), Afambo, Asaita, Dubti,
and Mille Woredas in Awsi (formerly Zone 1), and Megale Woreda in Kilbati (formerly Zone 2) in Afar. These floods
resulted in three deaths and approximately 4,000 livestock deaths. They damaged 4,700 hectares of crops. More than
3,500 households lost livestock, shelter, or other assets. Similarly, since July the Omo River flooded in Dassench Woreda
of South Omo Zone. Some pastoralists and their livestock have been surrounded by flood waters near Lake Turkana. The
evacuation of people from these areas has started.
UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS
Most assumptions from the Ethiopia Food Security Outlook for July to December 2014 remain unchanged.
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update
September 2014
PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH DECEMBER 2014

Southern areas along the Kenyan border in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas in southern
Somali, Oromia, and SNNPR: Livestock body conditions and productivity are likely to improve following the start of the
anticipated near average October to December Deyr/Hageya rains. Poor household will become less reliant on
humanitarian assistance, and these areas will move from their current Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) only due to the continued
presence of humanitarian assistance to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) even without assistance in October.

Jarar (formerly Degehabur) and Nogob (formerly Fik) Zones and some northern areas in Korahe, Shebelle (formerly
Gode), and Afder Zones in Somali Region: Pasture and water availability are likely to remain significantly less than usual
until after the start of the rains in October. With continued high cereal prices, poor and very poor households will remain
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least December, remaining unable to purchase some essential non-food items to
protect their livelihoods such as livestock drugs.

Afar and northern Somali Region: With the dry season starting in October, household milk access and income from milk
sales is expected to decline. The income from livestock sales and livestock product sales will not be sufficient to cover
their minimal food needs due to likely continued low livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. Poor and very poor households
in western and southern parts of Afar Region and Fafan (formerly Jijiga) and Sitti (formerly Shinile) Zones of the Somali
Region will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) only with the continued presence of humanitarian assistance through at least
December.

Northeastern Afar: With the start of the dry season in October, food access is expected to further deteriorate as livestock
body conditions deteriorate and prices fall further. Poor households in these areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
through December and beyond.

Meher-dominant, eastern, marginal areas in eastern Oromia, Tigray, and Amhara Regions: Despite the expected belowaverage Meher harvest, households will still have some income and food after the harvest starts in October/November.
At that time, poor households in the Tekeze River catchment in eastern Amhara and Tigray Regions and Arsi Zone in
Oromia Region which are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Similarly, poor
households in most parts of central and southern Tigray and East and West Hararghe Zones in Oromia Regions who are
Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) due to the presence of humanitarian assistance will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) even
without assistance in October. On the other hand, poor households displaced by conflict in the lowlands of East Haraghe
Zone in Oromia Region will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through December.

Belg-producing areas in eastern Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia: The average Belg harvest in June/July allowed poor
households to meet their minimal food needs and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

SNNPR: This year’s Meher production is also expected to be about average. Staple food prices are anticipated to remain
stable or decline following the Meher harvest in November/December, increasing households’ ability to meet their food
and non-food needs. These areas are likely to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase1) through December.

Lowland areas of Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Halaba, Gurage, and Boricha and Loka Abaya Woredas in Sidama Zone of
SNNPR: Meher maize, haricot bean, pepper, and potato production are expected to fail or be incredibly low in
October/November. With less to harvest, there will also be less labor to be done. Despite the likely decline in food prices
in November/December due to harvests in other areas, poorer households will not have adequate income to cover both
food and essential non-food needs. Therefore, the poor and very poor households in these areas will move Minimal (IPC
Phase 1) into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October to December due to low access to harvesting labor and the likely far
below average harvest.
ABOUT THIS UPDATE
This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates
FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.
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