Manitoba Economic Highlights

Manitoba Economic Highlights
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Economic Overview Real Gross Domestic Product 
Manitoba Finance’s survey of economic forecasts indicates that Manitoba’s GDP will grow 2.0% in 2014, fourth best and just below the national average of 2.4%. 
In 2015, according to the survey, Manitoba GDP will grow by 2.6%, tied for second best among provinces and above the national average of 2.4%. 
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Manitoba has the third best average annual GDP growth over the last five years (2008‐
2013) at 1.9%. 
Real GDP (% Change) 3
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Manitoba
Canada
2
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1
0
2011
2012
2013f
2014f
2015f
Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and; Manitoba Finance, survey of economic forecasters.
Consumer Price Index 
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In the first eleven months of 2014, the Manitoba CPI was 1.9%, tied for fifth among provinces and the same as Canada. Tobacco & alcohol, shelter, food and energy boosted consumer prices, while clothing & footwear, health & personal care, recreation, transportation and household operations eased pressure on prices. Manitoba CPI increased 2.2% in 2013, the highest among provinces and above the 0.9% increase for Canada. As of July 1, 2014, Manitoba's population increased 1.3%, the fourth consecutive 12 month period of population growth above the national rate and the third best growth among provinces. In the first three quarters of 2014 Manitoba farm cash receipts are up 5.6%, highest among provinces. Canada up 2.6%. Exports have increased by 8.1% in the first eleven months of 2014, similar to the 10.6% national increase. Average weekly earnings in Manitoba were up 4.3% in the first ten months of 2014, second best among provinces and above the national increase of 2.8%. Returning to normal yields, crop production decreased in 2014 for canola (19.4%), wheat (29.1%), corn (42.9%) and barley (49.7%) but soybean production increased 3.7% in 2014. Labour Market Employment 
Preliminary annual estimates for 2014 show, employment increased 0.2% or 1,100 jobs while the labour force gained 1,300 entrants. 
Preliminary annual estimates for 2014 show, full‐time employment increased 0.7% or 3,400 jobs and part‐time employment decreased 1.9% or 2,300 jobs. Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. Updated: January 9, 2015 Page 1 of 5 Manitoba Economic Highlights
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provinces and below the national increase of 1.8%. In 2013, Manitoba’s employment increased 0.5% and Manitoba’s labour force expanded 0.5%. In 2013, Manitoba’s employment growth ranked seventh highest among provinces. Population 
As of October 1, 2014, Manitoba’s population stood at 1,286,323 an increase of 16,848 persons and a 12 month increase of 1.3%. 
As of July 1, 2014, Manitoba's median age was 37.7 years, the third lowest among provinces, and below the national level of 40.4 years. Employment (% Change) Manitoba Total Employment Full‐Time Part‐Time Canada Total Employment 2013 0.5 0.2 1.6 1.3 2014 (ytd)
0.2 0.7 ‐1.9 Net Migration 0.8 
For the twelve months to September 30, 2014, 11,137 more people moved to Manitoba than left. 
During the same period, net international in‐
migration totalled 14,751 and net inter‐
provincial out‐migration totalled 5,934. Natural increase totalled 5,711. Unemployment Rate 
Preliminary annual estimates for 2014 show, Manitoba’s unemployment rate averaged 5.4%, third lowest among provinces and below the 6.9% national average. 
In 2013, Manitoba’s unemployment rate was 5.4%, third lowest behind Saskatchewan and Alberta. The youth unemployment rate was 10.5%, the third lowest in Canada. 
Over the past 14 years, Manitoba’s unemployment rate has averaged 2.1 percentage points below Canada. Economic Activity Manufacturing Sales 
In the first ten months of 2014, Manitoba manufacturing sales increased 3.3%, Canada sales increased 5.7%, and were eighth among provinces. Sales of fabricated metals, transportation equipment, machinery and chemicals are leading growth while wood and food lag growth. 
In 2013, Manitoba manufacturing sales increased 0.2% compared to a 0.3% national increase and ranked sixth among provinces with four of eight sub‐sectors advancing. Average Weekly Earnings 
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In the first ten months of 2014, average weekly earnings in Manitoba were up 4.3%, second best among provinces and above the national increase of 2.8%. In 2013, average weekly earnings in Manitoba were up 0.6%, ninth among Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. Updated: January 9, 2015 Page 2 of 5 Manitoba Economic Highlights
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Leading Industries with Strongest Growth Manufacturing Sales (% Change) Fabricated Metals Transportation Machinery Total Sales 2013 2014 (ytd)
‐7.7 6.7
‐0.8 6.0
9.9 4.6
0.2 3.3 Retail Sales 
In the first ten months of 2014, Manitoba retail sales increased by 3.9% compared to a 4.9% national increase and ranked fifth among provinces. Sales rose on the strength of motor vehicles, department stores, gasoline, personal services, food & beverage sales, furniture sales, hardware & building supplies and sporting goods sales – sales declined in electronics & appliances and clothing. 
In the first ten months of 2014, new motor vehicle unit sales were up 2.1%, fifth among provinces and below the national increase of 5.7%. In 2013, new motor vehicle unit sales were up 7.7%, third best among provinces and above the national increase of 3.5%. 
In 2013, Manitoba retail sales increased 3.9%, above the Canadian increase of 3.2% and ranked fourth best among provinces. 
2013 retail sales rose on the strength of motor vehicles 13.0%, furniture sales 11.5%, sporting goods sales 5.0%, hardware & building supplies 4.7%, clothing 3.0%, and department stores 2.8% – sales declined in electronics & appliances 6.9%, personal services 6.6% and food & beverages 0.5%. Farm Cash Receipts 
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In the first three quarters of 2014, Manitoba farm cash receipts are up 5.6%, highest among provinces. Crop receipts decreased 0.7% with increases in soybeans and canola up 22.1% and 7.6% respectively offsetting declines in wheat 15.8%, corn 12.6%, oats 21.4% and barley 26.7%. Livestock receipts were up 26.4% with cattle and calves up 35.5%, hogs up 36.1%. Farm Cash Receipts (% Change) Canola Wheat Hogs Cattle Total Farm Cash 
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2013 7.6 35.0 2.4 8.2 12.0 2014 (ytd)
7.6 (15.8) 36.1 35.5 5.6 Direct payments, which include insurance and various types of income supports, decreased 43.7%. Estimates of crop production for 2013 indicate increased yields over 2012 gains. Increases occurred in: wheat up 31.5, canola 36.7%, soybeans 38.7% and barley 14.1%. In 2013, Manitoba cash receipts increased by 12.0% to a record $5.8 billion. Crops, livestock and direct payments generated $3.4 billion, $2.0 billion and $0.4 billion in receipts, respectively. Investment 
Statistics Canada’s Private and Public Investment Survey released February 2014 projected Manitoba’s capital investment to decrease 1.5%, below the Canadian increase of 1.4%. Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. Updated: January 9, 2015 Page 3 of 5 Manitoba Economic Highlights
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Manitoba’s private investment is projected to decrease 1.9% and public investment to decrease 0.5%. 
A number of major investment projects are currently underway, including, downtown condominiums and the expansion of the Winnipeg Convention Centre. 
In 2013, Manitoba’s capital investment was revised to a 5.8% increase. 
Manitoba’s total capital investments increased to a record $12.6 billion in 2013. Private investment increased 4.6% while public capital investment increased 8.3%. 
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Housing Starts (All Areas) (% Change) 2011 2012 2013 2014 (ytd) 
From 2008 to 2013, Manitoba private investment has increased by 21.3% compared to a 11.6% national increase. Over the same period, Manitoba total investment has increased 25.7% compared to a 14.2% national increase. Housing Starts 
highest since 1987 and represented 49% of all area starts in 2013 ‐ highest since 1987. Manitoba all area housing starts remain high by historical standards, but have slowed in 2014 relative to last year’s record starts. In 2014, Manitoba all area housing starts decreased 16.7%, to 6,220 units, sixth best among provinces. Single starts were down 17.6% (3,149) and multiples were down 15.7% (3,071). Urban housing starts have slowed from the record setting levels of last year. In 2014, Manitoba urban area housing starts decreased 13.9%, still sixth best among provinces but below the 1.1% national increase. Single starts were down 17.3% and multiples starts were down 10.9%. Manitoba all area housing starts increased 3.1% and reached a record 7,465 units in 2013, the highest since 1987. Total multiple starts increased 18.6% (3,645) were the Canada 2.1 10.8 (12.5) 0.8 Manitoba urban area housing starts increased 20.0% in 2013 to 5,894 units, the highest level since 1987. Manitoba urban starts growth was better than the national decline of 12.1%. Single starts were up 9.6% (2,743 units) while multiples were up 30.9% (3,151 units) the highest level since 1987. In 2013, urban housing starts now represent 79% of all starts in the province. Building Permits 
In the first eleven months of 2014, the value of Manitoba building permits increased 4.4% fourth best nationally, (Canada up 4.4%). 
Non‐residential permits increased (13.4%). Non‐residential building permits increased in: commercial permits (17.1%), institutional permits (13.0%) and declined in industrial permits (2.0%). Manitoba residential permits decreased (1.9%). 
Total permits in Winnipeg increased 3.3% and outside of Winnipeg they increased 7.1%. 
In 2013, the value of Manitoba building permits increased 4.9%, the second highest growth among provinces and above Canada at 0.0%. Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. Updated: January 9, 2015 Page 4 of 5 Manitoba
3.3 19.1 3.1 (16.7)
Manitoba Economic Highlights
exports were up 9.7% and Manitoba’s non‐
U.S. exports increased 11.8%. Bankruptcies 
In the first ten months of 2014, business bankruptcies were down 17.0% in Manitoba, (39 in total) and ranked fourth. Business bankruptcies are down 1.9% in Canada. 
In the first ten months of 2014, consumer bankruptcies were down 2.1% in Manitoba, sixth best nationally, Canada’s down 7.0%. 
In 2013, business bankruptcies were up 52.8% in Manitoba, (55 in total) and ranked tenth. Business bankruptcies were down 1.5% in Canada. 
In 2013, consumer bankruptcies were down 4.9% in Manitoba, sixth best nationally. Consumer bankruptcies were down 3.2% in Canada. Foreign Merchandise Exports 
In the first eleven months of 2014, Manitoba exports increased 8.1%, while Canadian exports edged up 10.6%. 
In the first eleven months of 2014, Manitoba’s U.S. exports increased 7.9% while non‐U.S. exports were up 8.7%. Foreign Merchandise Exports (% Change) All Countries U.S. Non‐U.S. 
2013 2014 (ytd) 10.4 8.1
9.8 7.9
11.8 8.7
In 2013, Manitoba exports increased 10.4%, second best nationally, while Canadian exports were up 3.7%. Manitoba U.S. Hydro‐Electricity Sales 
In the first eleven months of 2014, the value of hydro sales increased 2.2% with a 2.0% increase in domestic sales adding to a 2.8% increase in export sales. 
Exports to other Canadian provinces increased 115.4% while U.S. exports declined 5.0%. 
In 2013, the value of hydro sales increased 16.7% with a 15.5% increase in domestic sales being further supported by a 21.3% increase in export sales. 
Manitoba Finance Economic and Fiscal Analysis Branch, Taxation, Economic and Intergovernmental Fiscal Research Division ‐ (204) 945‐3757 Director: Narendra Budhia [email protected]
Analyst: Robb Balacko [email protected] Please click on economic statistics to view the data underlying this report. Note: The 2013/14 Public Accounts is available at Public Accounts The 2014/15 Second Quarter report is available at: Second Quarter Report The 2014 Manitoba Budget is available at: 2014 Budget Manitoba Facts for Investors ‐ Spring 2014 is available at: Facts for Investors Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. Updated: January 9, 2015 Page 5 of 5

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