2_ConFab_0614_Subi v2

Techno-Economics of $0.35T
Semiconductor Industry driving $85T GWP
Subramani Kengeri , Vice President, Advanced Technology Architecture
Semiconductor is a Critical Enabler of GWP Value and
Growth..
But, Semiconductor Industry is challenged on the
Economics of Technology Scaling
What may be the Global impact ?
2
Semiconductor is a Critical Enabler of GWP Value and
Growth..
3
Semiconductor is a Critical Enabler of GWP
Value and Growth..
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional and business services
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative and waste management services
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Other services, except government
86.5
1.2
2.6
1.7
3.6
12.5
6.6
6.0
5.9
5.7
2.9
4.8
19.5
6.6
12.9
11.9
7.0
1.9
3.0
8.2
1.1
7.1
3.7
1.0
2.7
2.2
Government
Federal
State and local
13.5
4.4
9.1
US GDP (2012) % by sector, $T. Source: World Bank
4
Semiconductor Industry is challenged on the
Economics of Technology Scaling
5
Emerging Applications drive Innovations
across the Value-Chain…
Emerging Applications include:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Computer vision
Augmented reality
Concurrent application and modem operation
Gesture recognition
Medical applications
Contextual awareness
HD video and games
3D camera and 3D display
Multiple concurrent displays
Multiple concurrent audio and video CODECS
6
Emerging Applications drive Innovations
across the Value-Chain
It’s not all about the Device
but, Devices are key enablers
Cloud
Device
Client or
Aggregator
Network
Operator
Or ISP
Service
Enabler
System
Integrator
Service
Provider
Reseller
Customer
“Look up” while
navigating and
shopping
Source: HP - Terry O’Shea DAC ‘14 Panel
End User
IoT: Growth Forecast is very attractive
Connected Devices
(in Billions)
60
15%
30
50
25
0
7
13
7
2010
8
2015
World Population
2020
Connected Devices
Source: CISCO
8
Factors for IoT to Takeoff
• Reduced costs of sensors, MCUs, RF, LEDs
– Lower manufacturing costs
– Move to 300mm for efficiency, high volume
• Low Power
• Embedded Processing
– Distributed intelligence
– Reduce load on bandwidth
• Interoperability
– Manageable number of standards
– Open source framework for apps
• Security
– Connectivity & privacy
9
Process innovations required for each successive
technology is exploding exponentially
TSVs
MIM CAP
AIR GAP
Porous LK
Low-K ESL
Ultra Low-K
FTEOS ILD
ILD Cu caps
Al Wires
CVD W
Cu Barriers
ALD W
TiSSi2
MOCVD TiN
Cu wiring
NiPtSi
Bulk Si
CoSI2
SOI
Si Strain
180/130
90
350
250
Electroless Cu
Cu Contact
Porous LK
New Cu BM
65 /45
Eless Cu
MIS
Dual Si2
Fin FET
Eless Cu
High K
45/32
28/20
BEOL
Cu Alloys
Dual Si2
Multiple EWF
ALD Metals
Low K ILD
Si-50%Ge
Replacement
CoWP cap Metal Gate Metal Gate
Ge MOS
Stress Liner
Stress Liner SiGe channel
Gate First
Si-Ge
Si orientation
Si-C
Si-P
CPI
FTEOS ILD
ULK Cap
Cu Alloys
MIM CAP II
Sel Metal caps
Contacts
Device
Channel
14/beyond
Technology Node
10
Materials innovations driving connectivity on
and off chip
Performance/Area needs have necessitated materials innovations in packaging.
3D stacks
Cu oxide
Interposers
Cu Polyimide
Interposers Tight pitch
White bumps
CPI
Conformal
Cu TSVs
BCB
Organic
Passivation
Evaporated
High-Pb
bumps
Pb-plated
bumps
250
180/130
<3um TSVs
50 um TSVs
20um solid
10um Cu TSVs6um Cu TSVs Cu/W Fill with
Cu TSVs
alternate B/S
Nitride
Passivation
Eutectic
Sn-Ag plated Solder-tip
Sn-Ag bumps
bumps
Cu pillars
90
65/45
45/32
28/20
Low K isolation
Oxide
Passivation
Cu µ-bumps
Fine pitch Direct bond
Cu pillars
Cu-Cu
14/beyond
Technology Node
11
R&D Pipeline: Logic Device Scaling Trend
Vdd 1.0/1.1V 0.9/1.0V
0.8/0.9V 0.7/0.8V 0.6/0.7V 0.5/0.6V
Process- Advanced Gate Fully-depleted
induced
Stack EngineeringChannel
Electrostatics
Strain
Engineering
SD/stressors
Metal Gate +High-k
Multigate FETs
Stress Liner
Tech Node
...
45nm
III/V, SiGe, & Ge
channels
20nm
Nanowires
Tunnel FETs
a-Si
7nm
10nm
2D Quantum
Materials
NW Cap Silicide
Quantum well
devices
14nm
32/28nm
New Transport &
Extreme Channel
Electrostatics
Band-Engineered
Channel for
Enhanced Transport
Novel Materials
Bulk FinFETs
< 0.5V
5nm
Graphene,
Resonant/Direct
TFET
Topological
Insulator,
Spintronics
EUV: CoO is a strong function of source power
Today, the best sources
integrated with exposure tools are
< 100 W
Cost equivalence to
immersion double patterning
Cost equivalence
to triple patterning
200
180
Throughput (wph)
160
Resist
sensitivity
140
120
15 mJ/cm2
100
20 mJ/cm2
80
25 mJ/cm2
60
30 mJ/cm2
40
20
0
100
150
200
250
300
350
Power at intermediate focus (W)
400
450
500
>500 W sources
likely needed to
make EUV cost
effective
10nm Era: Collaborative Innovation to reduce
Cost Per Function
20nm and older: Cost/xtor
10nm era: Cost/Function
Arbitrary
Scale
Cost
Moore’s Law
Cost increase in some Applications
because of double patterning
Continued innovations to
Gap@20nm
put 10nm “CPF” back on
track
GLOBALFOUNDRIES’ FinFET @14nm offers
higher density
120
5,000
110
4,500
100
4,000
39%
38%
3,500
90
80
3,000
65
2,500
60
2,000
2,000
45
40
1,200
1,000
0
30
20
0
130nm 90nm
65nm
40nm
28nm
SOURCE: World Fab Watch
130nm
90nm
65nm
40nm
28nm
Fab-lite strategies have reduced Capex, But
Spending ratio is decreasing..
Source: IC Insights, IC Knowledge, McKinsey Analysis
16
Goal
Historical
Evolving
Slower TTV (Higher level of Integration,
Increased
Investment
New yield ramp challenges)
Impact of slower TTV =>
What may be the Global impact ?
19
Evolving Industry Landscape

Foundry, Qualcomm and ARM winners in mobility

Mobility: Low-end driving growth; high-end driving profits
PC to mobility transition
–
2017: 1.8bn mobile devices (smartphone and tablet)

PCs (x86 base): Declining (~300mm units in 2013)

5 companies drive >60% of total industry wafer demand

System companies designing directly to fabs/foundry

Over $20B of M&A during the past three years

Semiconductor industry remains cyclical (4-yr forecast CAGR of ~6%)

Mobility CAGR ~10%, foundry CAGR 6-8%

Capex and development costs increasing

Only a few 14nm fabs in the world with $3-5bn revenue / year each

28nm and 14/10nm likely to be long-lived nodes
Customer consolidation
Supplier consolidation
Industry cyclicality
Technology scaling
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Confidential
20
Capex Challenge: Semiconductor Scaling May be
Approaching an End at 7nm

Capex per kwpm of installed capacity ($mm)1
Key drivers:
 Lithography cost
50%
increase
 finFET device complexity
 Advanced Equipments
25%
increase
25%
increase
33%
increase

65m
40nm
28nm
20nm
14nm
Cost per transistor reduction (indexed to 65nm)
46%
reduction
65nm
40nm
Source: GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Sanford Bernstein, February 2014
1 Includes equipment and building
24%
reduction
12%
reduction
3%
reduction
28nm
20nm
14nm

At 20nm and below:
–
Lower cost reduction per
transistor
–
Performance / Power
improvements
Only customers requiring
density, Performance or Lower
power consumption will
migrate
–
28nm likely a “long node”
–
Next long-lived node may
be 14/10nm, lengthening
investment capture
period
Cost of building leading-edge
fab now >$10bn
Equipment is a greater proportion
of overall Fab Costs
Facilities
Equipment
100%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
80%
Lithography
30%
Etch
20%
PVD
15%
60%
40%
70%
70%
75%
80%
85%
20%
0%
90nm
65nm
45nm
32nm
20nm
CVD
10%
Metrology
10%
Implant
5%
CMP
5%
Diffusion
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Materials are Becoming the Largest Cost Contributor
•
•
Equipment depreciation is flattening out
Rising R&D costs have been dealt with by consolidation
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Confidential
Industry Growing, but Remains Cyclical and has averaged
~0.35% of GWP
Semiconductor industry (LHS), $B and Semiconductor Contribution to GWP (RHS), %
Semiconductor industry (LHS)
Semiconductor
industry ($bn)
350
Semi industry longterm growth: ~5%
300
250
Long-term GDP
(nominal): ~3.5%
Semi /GWP (%)
2.0
Tablets
0.1% GWP = $85B,
unlikely Semi market
will see such annual
growth rate

Future growth
estimates largely
assume conventional
die-cost scaling

Pressure will build-up
in the value-chain, If
cost scaling slows
down
1.5
Dot-com
bubble
1.0
100
0.5
Industry
50

320
Consumer
PC boom
150
Semiconductor has
been ~0.35 of GWP
Smartphones
Financial
crisis
200

IDM
foundry
Semi
% of
GWP
0.0
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: iSuppli Q4 2013 foundry update; IMF Economic Outlook, October 2013; GDP growth at current market prices
$47B* Semiconductor Industry value destroyed
between 1996-2009…What about the future ?
Three major reasons:
*Excludes Intel
1. ROIC in cyclical Industry
2. Rising R&D, Die-costs
3. Consumer Products’ ASPs
EP = Operating Profit – Adjusted taxes
McKinsey Report: Creating Value in the Semiconductor industry
25
Collaborative Innovation is Foundational
BVT
Equipment Suppliers
Fab8
ALB
Materials Suppliers
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Confidential
GLOBALFOUNDRIES’ Continue to Invest
$10B CapEx planned for 2014-2015
250
300mm
Capacity
(000’s/mo.)
200
≤ 20nm
150
32/28nm
45/40nm
100
65/55nm
≥ 130nm
50
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Confidential
Thank You
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