15.45 OT MARKET REPORT – WEEK #19 – MAY 15TH, 2014 1-- SECTION ONE – CATCH WEEK #19 th CATCH WEEK #19 – MAY 5/MAY 11 , 2014 PAITA CHIMBOTE CENTER PISCO SOUTH WEEK TOTAL 0 MT 6,705 MT 96,707 MT 51,664 MT 11,101 MT 166,177 MT Week Total # 19 --- 166,177 MT st Catch Jan 1 /FWD 2014 --- 778,114 MT – (Total full 2013 --- 4,720,147 MT) (BIO YEAR NOV 23/2012 - NOV 21/2013 --- 3,018,858 MT) NEW BIO YEAR NOV 11/2013 - FWD = 2,869,920 MT 2--SECTION TWO – South Region (Season 1/2014) Quota Meter – South Region Raw Fish Total Quota October 31/2013 - forward Balance quota until May 31/ 2014 F/Meal 430,000 MT 100,000 MT (281,637) MT ( 65,497) MT 148,363 MT 34,503 MT % 100% ( 65.49%) 34.51% The South again slowed down, totaling raw fish 11,101 MT / 2,582 MT meal –about 72% lower than last week. Bad weather and less boats which completed their quotas. The landings distributed in all South ports: PORT Atico La Planchada Matarani/Mollendo Ilo FISH MT 125 MT 3,000 MT 691 MT 7,285 MT 11,101 MT APPROX MEAL 29 MT 698 MT 161 MT 1,694 MT 2,582 MT N/C Region (Season 1/2014) Quota Meter – N/C Region Raw Fish Total Quota Apr 23 / Jly 31/2014 Balance quota until Jly 31/ 2014 F/Meal % 2,530,000 MT 588,000 MT ( 328,349) MT ( 76,360) MT ( 12.97) % 100% 2,201,651 MT 511,640 MT 87.03 % The government continued with the new way to stop fishing called “Preventive Suspension of Extraction Activity” -it’s not properly a mini fishing ban as by decree same can only be imposed after 3 consecutive days of landings w/excess over 20 pct of juveniles (Produce increased the juvenile tolerance now to 20% i/o 10%!!). Here the intention is to tell the fishermen to change fishing grounds in a 48 hour non fishing period, which if they don’t and th persist, an official mini ban will be decreed for 3/5 or more days… This second case occurred for May 12 and th 13 btw latitude 11º30’ to 11º45’ (Chancay) and btw longitude 77º25’ W and 77º40’ W. N/C Distribution Paita Chicama Chimbote Supe Vegueta Huacho Chancay Callao Tambo de Mora Pisco Total Week #17 5,114 MT 90 MT 600 MT 550 MT 4,205 MT 10,831 MT 10,156 MT 37,319 MT 68,865 MT Week #18 1,690 MT 3,110 MT 855 MT 3,705 MT 13,77 MT 19,155 MT 13,392 MT 48,726 MT 104,408 MT Week #19 6,705 MT 8,910 MT 14,260 MT 7,220 MT 28,560 MT 37,757 MT 13,876 MT 37,788 MT 155,076 MT Total Landing 13,509 MT 12,110 MT 15,715 MT 11,475 MT 46,540 MT 67,743 MT 37,424 MT 123,833 MT 328,349 MT Total Est Fishmeal 3,142 MT 2,816 MT 3,655 MT 2,669 MT 10,823 MT 15,754 MT 8,703MT 28,798 MT 76,360 MT 3--SECTION THREE– No mood for sellers lately, as fishing although got better last weekend still we see the far North empty. Prices have firmed up no doubt about it, and with only 13% of the N/C quota filled so far many feel it will be very difficult to see the quota completed unless Chimbote/Chicama get some landings. The juvenile tolerance increased now to 20% for incidental catch could help avoid imposing mini bans in some regions, but believe more a political measure as the places with juveniles are way over 20%. Demand from several markets which had hopes for lower prices are rapidly changing strategies, and actively bidding at current levels even higher levels but not fixing for the moment. China suffered bad weather in the South with heavy rains/floods, and we hope this will not have a negative effect on the ongoing aqua season. The stocks continue to decrease slowly and now stand @ 249,000 MT –with prices slowly but surely increasing ex-warehouses across China. We realize China will need to keep buying fishmeal, and if Peru a reluctant seller and at higher prices due our own local reality –rest assured China will continue buying from other origins like they already have from Chile in April and now USA in May. Last minute news: seems some interesting volume traded @ equivalent level of US$1,650 MT FOB Super with menu discounts for lower grades –but same done in the South –where container service is very limited as we know… FYI we will consider this new tonnage sold in our report next week, once the info is clearer. Our updated position: ( 16,025) MT net short last report + 38,646 MT Prod week #19 ( 2,000) MT local usage ( 5,000) MT New sales + 15,621 MT net long position 4--SECTION FOUR – -No new bulk vessels to report yet. -The April exports, we basically updated last week and one last run shows total April @ 421,325 MT (China 12,502 MT) –Total Jan/Apr 2014 @ 411,463 MT. If we tally exports to China for the last season starting Dec 2013/April 2014 we show then the following numbers: Peru Exports to China Last Season Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mch 2014 Apr 2014 Total 100,117 MT 117,290 MT 93,553 MT 36,845 MT 12,502 MT 360,307 MT We must consider all March exports have arrived China already –thus most of the April exports are still pending to arrive –but that’s it as FH May exports to China are minimal. Here the revised MSICeres top 10 list exports Jan/Apr 2014 1 S 3 4 5 China Germany Chile Japan Vietnam 260,364 MT 43,671 MT 26,099 MT 23,464 MT 17,710 MT 6 Taiwan 7 Australia 8 U.K. 9 Ecuador 10 Korea Others Total 12,708 MT 5,177 MT 4,100 MT 3,342 MT 3,327 MT 11,501 MT 411,463 MT 5--SECTION FIVE – It has been an unusually warm week in Lima for this time of the year. Usually we look forward to the sun, but with all this El Niño talk, the warmer it gets, the more concerned we become… The catch figures are indeed erratic. Still our stellar fishing hub of Chicama/Chimbote has come up painfully short in the first weeks of fishing. Still many producers are hoping for this situation to change in June so that they can have a fighting chance to complete the fishing quota. Regarding the quality of fishmeal being produced, we hear that there is no abundance of Super Prime at all, but instead we are seeing lower qualities probably due to a more numerous juvenile catch. Buyers are timidly starting to request meal to several destinations and we believe they intuit something not at all right with the fishing situation. Whereas before they were incredulous, they now are beginning to believe all the scientific projections. The closer we get to fishing the quota, the more bearish the market will become. Obviously, the inverse is true as well. Best regards, James Frank/Charles Levy MSICeres S.A.C. P.S. Copyright MSICeres S.A.C. 2014 (PLEASE DO NOT RELAY THIS REPORT WITHOUT MSICeres’ AUTHORIZATION)