The future of integrated assessments in a European and global context Karel Haegeman (EC*) * The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. [email protected] 2 December 2014 Brussels Joint Research Centre (JRC) The European Commission's in-house science service. Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation. Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) – Seville Developing science-based responses to policy-challenges 1 http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu Ambiguity Complexity Uncertainty 2 1 How to organise engagement in this context? 3 Engagement Moving engagement upstream Why this technology? Why not another? Who needs it? Who is controlling it? Who benefits from it? …. J Wilsdon & R Willis, Seethrough Science: Why public engagement needs to move upstream , p 28 Source: R Jackson, F Barbagello & H Haste, ‘Strengths of Public Dialogue on Science-related Issues’, Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy Vol. 8, No. 3. September 2005, pp 349-358 4 2 Engagement Ex-post impact assessment Foresight FTA/FLA Forecasting Evaluation Evaluation Technology assessment Monitoring Ex-ante impact Regulatory Ethical assessment Risk frameworks assessment assessment RRI TranSTEP Common challenge: combining 5 qualitative and quantitative European context Engagement EFFLA JRC Foresight …. RTD Foresight Evaluation committees STOA/EPTA/ETAG EIPs RRI IAB Ex-ante impact assessment Unit (EP) Governance and ethics/security/gender units 6 3 Global context Engagement Examples: STAR-IDAZ ERA.Net Rus JPI Urban Europe FLAGSHIP INAHTA …. UN STIPAG 7 Uncertainty and controversy 8 4 Uncertainty and controversy Stirling, A. Risk, precaution and science: towards a more constructive policy debate. Talking point on the precautionary principle. EMBO Rep. Apr 2007; 8(4): 309–315. 9 Uncertainty and controversy 10 5 Uncertainty and controversy A role for…: Big data? Creativity methods: Design thinking,…? Horizon scanning centers (UK, Singapore,…)? Interdisciplinary platforms? 11 Controversy over facts and values 12 6 Controversy A role for…: Research on epistemology? Values research and scenario development? Alternative models to growth? Increasing futures literacy? Grassroots innovation? 13 Epistemology A vicious cycle Epistemological barriers Lack of trust Lack of skills - Trained incapacities (Reiss, 1968; Bryman, 2007) K. Haegeman, E. Marinelli, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, A. Sokolov, Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration? Technological Forecasting and Social Change 03/2013; 80(3):386–397. 14 7 Agenda A possible agenda: - Common knowledge repositories – identify interesting practices - Skill development: methodological, communication, language, common understanding of concepts - Balance stakeholder participation between qualitative and quantitative dimensions in crucial stages of the process - Building trust and credibility (related to past performance) 15 Thank you 2014 FTA Conference https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/event/site/fta2014 16 8