Millennial Travel Behavior

3/17/2014
Understanding Millennial Travel
Steven E. Polzin, PhD
March 13, 2014 Center for Urban Transportation Research | University of South Florida
What Share of Travel is for Work?
Less Than 20%
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What Share of U.S.
Households Have No
Workers?
About 27%
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What is the Average
Commute time in the U.S.
About 26 Minutes
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The average personal vehicle is
≈163,000 miles?
scrapped at ______
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What Share of Travel is on
Transit in the U.S.
About 2%
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Social and Economic Interactions Create Demand for Travel
Time
Growth in Specialization in Growth in  Income
 Knowledge

Employment
 Person Travel  Consumption
 Social Relationships
 Time Use
 Commerce
 Communication
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Conceptual Framework for Thinking About Travel Demand
Legal/Political Climate
Culture
Socio-Demographic Conditions
Household/Person Characteristics
 Income/wealth levels and distribution
 Age/activity level
 Culture/values
Technology
Security
Economy
Business, Governance, Institutional
Context
 Scale of activity concentration
 Economic structure of service delivery
 Racial/ethnic composition
 Immigration status/tenure
 Gender
 Family/household composition
 Housing location
Travel Demand
 Local person travel
 Tourism/long trips
 Freight
 Commercial Travel
1.
2.
3.
4.
Travel Impacts:
Change trip frequency
Change destination
Change Mode
Change Path
Land Use Pattern
 Regional/national distribution
 Density
Transportation
Supply/Performance
 Mix of land uses
 Modal Availability
 Urban form
 Modal Performance
 Urban design
 Contiguousness of development
o Cost
o Speed/congestion
o Safety, security
o Reliability
o Convenience
o Image, etc.
Polzin, CUTR 2009
o Multi-tasking opportunities
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3/17/2014
Who are Millennials
Millennial Generation
Baby Boom Generation
Born: After 1980
Age of Adults in 2014: 18 to 33
Share of Adult Population: 27%
Share Non‐Hispanic White: 57%
Born: 1946 to 1964
Age of Adults in 2014: 50 to 68 Share of Adult Population: 32%
Share Non‐Hispanic White: 72%
Generation X
Silent Generation
Born: 1965 to 1980
Age of Adults in 2014: 34 to 49
Share of Adult Population: 27%
Share Non‐Hispanic White: 61%
Born: 1928 to 1945
Age of Adults in 2014: 69 to 86
Share of Adult Population: 12%
Share Non‐Hispanic White: 79%
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Millennial Demographics
Marital Status
Millen
nials
Silent (age 66‐ Boomers (age Xers (age 31‐ (age
83)
47‐65)
46)
18‐30)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When they were young (18‐30)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Married
Today (2011)
Separated or divorced
Never married/single
Widowed
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/interactive‐graphic‐demographic‐portrait‐of‐four‐generations/ 10
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Marriage
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Millennial Demographics
Labor Force Status
Millenn
ials
Silent (age 66‐ Boomers (age
(age 18‐
83)
47‐65)
Xers (age 31‐46) 30)
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When they were young (18‐30)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Civilian Employed
Today (2011)
Armed Forces
Unemployed
Not in Labor Force
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/interactive‐graphic‐demographic‐portrait‐of‐four‐generations/ 12
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Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
Female Education
Silent (age 66‐ Boomers (age
83)
47‐65)
Millenn
ials
Xers (age 31‐ (age
46)
18‐30)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When they were young (18‐30)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
Less than High School
High School
Some College
4 Years of College or More
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/interactive‐graphic‐demographic‐portrait‐of‐four‐generations/ 14
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3/17/2014
Millennial Demographics
Male Education Silent (age 66‐
83)
Millenni
als (age
Boomers (age
47‐65)
Xers (age 31‐46) 18‐30)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When they were young (18‐30)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
Less than High School
High School
Some College
4 Years of College or More
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/interactive‐graphic‐demographic‐portrait‐of‐four‐generations/ 15
Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
Median Household Income (2010 $)
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Millennials (age 18‐
30)
Xers (age 31‐46)
Boomers (age 47‐65)
When they were young (18‐30)
Silent (age 66‐83)
Today (2011)
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/interactive‐graphic‐demographic‐portrait‐of‐four‐generations/ 17
Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
Community Type
Silent (age 66‐
83)
Millenni
als (age
Boomers (age
47‐65)
Xers (age 31‐46) 18‐30)
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When they were young (18‐30)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
When they were young (18‐30)
Today (2011)
Central City
Suburbs
Town & Rural
Unknown
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/interactive‐graphic‐demographic‐portrait‐of‐four‐generations/ 19
Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
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Millennial
Demographics
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Millennial Demographics
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Millennial Values
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Millennial Values
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Millennial Values
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Millennial
Values
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Millennial Values
30
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Millennial Values
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What Does
This Have to
do With
Travel?
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National Trips, VMT and VMT per Capita
Trends
NHTS Survey data
Count data
12,000
2,500,000
10,000
2004 peak
2,000,000
8,000
VMT
VMT per capita
1,500,000
6,000
1,000,000
4,000
500,000
2,000
0
0
Per Capita Annual VMT
3,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total VMT (000,000)
2007 peak
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3
2
Daily Person
Trips
Daily Vehicle
Trips
1
0
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009
Per Capita Daily Miles
14,000
Per Capita Daily Trips
5
3,500,000
40
30
20
Daily PMT
10
Daily VMT
0
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009
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PMT and VMT per Capita by Age
14,000
12,000
10,000
2001 Per Capita
VMT
2008 Per Capita
VMT
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
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3/17/2014
www.travelbehavior.us
Young men’s vehicle travel rates declined more than women (16‐29 years old)
Daily Trips or Miles per Person
Trends in Vehicle Trips by 16‐29 year olds
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3
30
3
25
2
20
2
15
1
10
1
5
0
Trends in Vehicle Miles by 16‐29 year olds
Men
Women
0
1990
1995
2001
2009
1990
1995
2001
2009
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series
www.travelbehavior.us
Driving licensure rates—esp. for young men‐‐are falling...
The AAA Foundation surveyed a random sample of 1,039 young people ages 18‐20 to investigate the ages at which they obtained licenses, and reasons for waiting to obtain a license among those who were not licensed within 1 year of their state’s minimum age. Men Drivers as Percent of the Male Population
100
90
80
•
70
60
•
50
•
40
30
15‐19
20‐24
25‐29
•
20
10
0
1995
1997
2002
2004
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Table D20 Highway Statistics Historic Summary
Strongest predictor of delayed licensing was low household income.
Racial and ethnic differences still present after controlling for income.
Most cited not having a car, costs associated with driving, and ability to get around without driving as main reasons for not getting licensed sooner.
Little/no support for hypotheses from previous studies regarding GDL, social media as important reasons for low licensing rates.
2007
Source: The Reasons for the Recent Decline in Young Driver Licensing in the U.S:,
UMTRI, Schoettle and Sivak m Aug 2013, at: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/99124/102951.pdf?sequence=1
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3/17/2014
Conceptual Framework for Thinking About Travel Demand
Legal/Political Climate
Culture
Technology
Security
Socio-Demographic Conditions
Business, Governance, Institutional
Context
Big changes?
Some changes?
Economy
Travel Demand
 Local person travel
 Tourism/long trips
 Freight
 Commercial Travel
1.
2.
3.
4.
Travel Impacts:
Change trip frequency
Change destination
Change Mode
Change Path
Land Use Pattern
Little changes?
Transportation
Supply/Performance
Big changes – Communications
substitution for travel?
Polzin, CUTR 2009
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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN GOING
FORWARD?
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics 38
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And the Future will be
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3/17/2014
Understanding Weak Travel Demand
for Millennials
In a nutshell, we find that economic factors—employment status, household income, and the like—strongly influence the travel behavior of both adults and youth, the latter of which has
been harder hit by our current, prolonged economic downturn. These economic effects help to explain the growth mobility, trip‐
making, and driving among both youth and adults during the
1990s, and the subsequent contraction of mobility, trip‐making, and driving during the 2000s.
When it comes to changes in teen, youth (and adult) travel behavior in recent years, the adage “It’s the economy, stupid” appears to hold.
Evelyn Blumenberg, Brian D. Taylor, Michael Smart, Kelcie Ralph, Madeline Wander, and Stephen Brumbaugh, What's Youth Got to Do with It? Exploring the Travel Behavior of Teens and Young Adults, University of California Transportation Center, UCTC‐FR‐2012‐14, September 2012
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Understanding Weak Travel Demand
for Millennials
Behavior differences:
– Substitutes communication technology in lieu of travel
– Does not see vehicle ownership being a path to freedom and independence • Four siblings in a 1500 sq ft home is different than 1 sibling in a 2500 sq ft home
– Does not depend on travel as an enabler of socialization
– Applies different sensitivities to environment?
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Role of Communications
Technology
•
35% of couples meet online, eHarmony is responsible for 5% of all US marriages. •
Holiday shoppers spent 10% more on line in 2013 than 2012 totaling $42.8 Billion •
97% of adult Americans currently own cell phones, 56% use smart phones, 36.5% of American households have gone cell phone only.
•
60% of Americans 12 years of age or older have a Facebook account, 93% of teens have a Facebook account. •
There was a 9.3% increase in online course enrollment in colleges across the country in 2011. Of all students enrolled in post secondary education, roughly a third took an online course in fall of 2011. •
Households with teenage children had 5.2 online purchases and 4.2 home deliveries per month according to NHTS. Nearly 23% of teenagers prefer to shop online. 43
Knowledge Constraints
(Travel Theory)
• Limited understanding of travel implications of social interaction as it has shifted from home‐based to work‐
based to wifi/web‐based.
• Weak understanding of the communication substitution factors (customer acceptance/market penetration, critical mass, etc.).
• Limited understanding of the stability and impact of environmental, personal health, safety sensitivity and other value considerations on travel behavio.r
• Limited understanding of household travel changes as household composition changes (more independent economic units in same household?.)
• Limited discussion of the prospect that Millennials may not be homogeneous with regards to travel.
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Understanding Weak Travel
Demand for Millennials
To what extent will millennial behaviors persist as they age?
– Delayed marriage – Delayed start of family – Delayed homeownership
– Modest labor force participation
Will the challenging economics that impact millennials
persist?
Will travel behaviors of other age cohorts change?
Will future generations have still different travel behaviors?
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Summary
While it's premature to fully discern the magnitude and tenure of new trends, they are significant and will modify historic thinking about travel demand growth. They merit watching closely and supporting good data collection and research to more fully understand travel behavior trends.
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3/17/2014
Contact Information
Steven E. Polzin
Director, Mobility Policy
Center for Urban Transportation Research
University of South Florida
813‐974‐9849
[email protected]
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