EconNewsletter 2014-20

Fachbereich VWL / Department of Economics
EconNewsletter
Editorial Contact: Michael Paetz
tel: +49 40 42838-5561; e-mail: [email protected]
OCTOBER 20 - OCTOBER 24, 2014
NEWSLETTER 2014-20
SEMINAR CALENDAR
Research Seminar “Labour Economics”
Torsten Santavirta, Stockholm University, SOFI:
The Impact of Child Evacuation on the Importance
of Family Background
Monday October 20
16:30-18:00
R. 0029 (VMP 5)
Forschungsseminar “Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung“
Christian Proaño, The New School of Social Research, New York: Tuesday October 21
Detecting and Predicting Economic Accelerations, Recessions,
12:15–13:45
and Normal Growth Periods in Real-Time
R. 0029 (VMP 5)
Hamburg Lectures on Law & Economics
Dr. Georgios Dimitropoulos, Max Planck Institute Luxembourg:
Regulating International Judges? Towards an Empirical
Re-definition of Judicial Independence Standards
Wednesday October 22
18:15–19:45
R. 1083a (VMP 5)
PhD Seminar
Sercan Eraslan, University of Hamburg:
Nonlinear Adjustment Dynamics in Offshore and Onshore
Renminbi Markets
Thursday October 23
12:15–13:15
R. 0029 (VMP 5)
Research Seminar “Microeconomics”
Markus Reisinger, WHU, Vallendar:
Vertical Integration, Foreclosure, and Production‐Shifting
Thursday October 23
17:00–19:00
R. 0029 (VMP 5)
Forschungsseminar “Environmental Economics and Management“
- no seminar -
-2-
HCHE Research Seminar
- no seminar -
ABSTRACTS
Forschungsseminar “Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung“
Christian Proaño, The New School of Social Research, New York:
Detecting and Predicting Economic Accelerations, Recessions, and Normal Growth Periods in
Real-Time
Abstract:
The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central
in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy
of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as for the
prediction of future business cycle developments. In this context, the contribution of this paper to the
literature is twofold. First, since a positive rate of growth in the level of economic activity can be
considered as the normal scenario in modern economies due to both population and technological
growth, it proposes a new non-parametric algorithm for the detection and dating of economic
acceleration periods, trend or normal growth periods, and economic recessions. Second, it uses an
ordered probit framework for estimating and forecasting these three business cycle phases for the
German economy based on an automatized model selection approach using monthly macroeconomic
and financial data . The empirical results show not only the empirical relevance of this new algorithm,
but also significant asymmetries in the determinants of the different business cycle phases.
-3-
ACTIVITIES OF DEPARTMENT MEMBERS
Seminar Talks and Conference Presentations
Wolfgang Maennig presented
"Olympic Games: Using Big Data to identify feel good effects
and New Olympic City Concepts“
at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, on Sept. 24.
New Publications
Dräger, L. (2014): Recursive Inattentiveness with Heterogeneous Expectations,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.
Danz, D., Kübler, D. Mechtenberg, L. and Schmidt, J. (2014): On the failure of hindsightbiased principals to delegate optimally, Management Science, forthcoming.
Miscellaneous
Am Donnerstag, dem 23. Oktober, startet die Ringvorlesung "Plurale Ökonomik", eine
Veranstaltungsreihe des studentischen Arbeitskreises Plurale Ökonomik Hamburg. Die Reihe
startet mit einem Vortrag von Dr. Jakob Kapeller (Universität Linz) zum Thema
Eine wissenschaftstheoretische Betrachtung der VWL
Die Ringvorlesung findet wöchentlich von 18-20 Uhr im Hörsaal A (VMP5) statt. Weitere
Informationen finden Sie hier:
http://www.plurale-oekonomik-hamburg.de/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/flyer-web.pdf
The next EconNewsletter will be published on Monday, October 27, 2014.
Editorial deadline: Friday October 24, 2014.
EconNewsletter
Department of Economics
University of Hamburg
Von-Melle-Park 5, 20146 Hamburg
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