WORLD MODELING: A DIALOGUE

WORLD MODELING:
A DIALOGUE
Editors
C. WEST CHURCHMAN
and
RICHARD O. MASON
1976
NORTH-HOLLAND PUBLISHING COMPANY - AMSTERDAM • OXFORD
AMERICAN ELSEVIER PUBLISHING COMPANY, INC. - NEW YORK
CONTENTS
Growth science — 1974 (cogitamus ergo nihil), by David B. Hertz
ix
Notes about authors
xi
The search for a world model
Richard 0 . Mason
1
1. Medusa and Perseus
2. Choice of a shield
3. Images
4. Quest for Athena
1
3
5
10
The predicament of mankind
Hasan Ozbekhan
11
1. Introductory comments... (ex post!)
2. A view of the world "problematique" ... (ex ante!)
3. Problem relationships
4. Some expectations
5. The value base
6. Conclusion
11
14
16
21
23
24
Educational implications of responses to system dynamic
Jay W. Forrester
1. Introduction
2. Aggregation in time
3. Aggregation of similar behavior
4. Aggregation of parallel elements
5. Past trends versus intrinsic structure
6. Use of data
7. Reverse integration
8. Author's responsibility
9. Structure of lags
10. Rebalancing education and research
models
v
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
32
32
33
34
Structural global models
Frederick Betz and Jos6 Alberto Costacurta de Azevedo
37
1. Introduction
37
2. Technical requirements upon models useful for planning
2.1. Description
2.2. Explanation
2.3. Verification
3. Global structural models
4. Impact of global models
38
38
40
41
43
46
Problems of distribution
Geoffrey Vickers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The Faustian paradox
The limits of international inter-dependence
The dynamics of western state systems
Five fields of failure
GNP up but incomes down
49
50
51
52
53
Development and environment aims: an intuitive view
Jan Tinbergen
55
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
55
56
56
57
58
59
60
Needed: a synthesis of the Pearson and the Meadows Reports
The nature of statements to make
Rates of growth in production per capita
Rates of growth of population
Overall frame of population and income 1970 and 2012
Requirements for agricultural and non-agricultural production
Is zero-quantitative growth impossible?
Possible new taxation for environmental improvements of the world
Sumer C. Aggarwal
63
On some policy issues raised by The Limits to Growth
Edward S. Boylan
67
Interdisciplinary modeling
OlafHelmer
73
Current perceptions of the world problematique
E. Fontela and A. Gabus
81
1. Introduction
2. What is a "problem"?
3. Whose perceptions are studied?
4. How are these perceptions explicated?
5. How to analyze the perceived relations?
6. Is there a common perception of the world problematique?
7. What is the minimum basis of agreement?
81
81
81
82
82
84
84
8. Where to go next?
Appendix 1. Suggested list of world or/and generalized problems
84
85
Modelling the human world: perspectives
Erich Jantsch
89
A world issue debate: on assumptions underlying world models
Richard 0 . Mason
97
1. The problem
2. The debate
97
98
Can we model the wild world or should we first tame it?
Claude Faucheux, Andre Laurent and Spyros Makridakis
107
1. Introduction
2. The nature of models
3. Problems with existing social models
4. Taming the wild world
107
108
109
112
The logistics of size
Martin K. Starr
117
1. For organisms
2. For organizations
3. Determinants of organizational size
3.1. Productivity
3.2. Competition
4. Uncertainty
5. Minimum total unit cost
6. Sensitivity analysis
7. Management costs
8. Distribution costs
9. Monopoly
117
118
119
119
120
122
123
124
125
126
127
Backward integration tests of dynamic
Richard D. Wright
models
1. Introduction
2. Backwards integration with dynamic models
3. What happened in the world dynamics backcasts?
4. Implications of backward integration instability
5. Interpreting results of retrospective tests
6. Summary
129
•
129
132
135
135
137
139
VU1
Backward integration of system dynamics models - a useful validation test?
Kenneth R. Britting
.
141
1. Introduction
2. Mathematical basis for retrodiction
2.1. Existence and uniqueness of solutions
3. Numerical difficulties in retrodiction
3.1. Integration error in linear first order systems
3.2. Retrodiction in more complex systems
4. Conclusion
141
142
142
143
144
146
148
Global methodologies and limited analytic techniques - a proposed merger
to attack complex problems
Rolf H.Clark
- 151
Limits to models
Michael H. Rothkopf
155
The niggling and the grand: an assessment of world modeling
C. West Churchman
159

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