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Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Japan Market Memo
For information only
(No.046)
Today’s
Topic
15 March, 2015
Major Japanese Corporations’ Earnings Outlook
Record high earnings is expected despite downward revision by stronger JPY and lower commodity price
Point
1
Marginal fall in earnings in Oct.- Dec. 2015
Slowdown of manufacturers is noticeable
 Oct.-Dec. 2015 recurring profits of 216 major
Japanese corporations (*) fell marginally by -0.3%
YoY. Manufacturers (135 companies) fell -8.6% YoY,
while Non-manufacturers (81 companies) rose
+18.7% YoY. Noticeable slowdown was seen in
Industrial machinery, steel and nonferrous wires.
 Corporate earnings as a whole is trending down as
Apr.-Jun. 2015 was +30.1% YoY and Jul.–Sep. 2015
was +0.1% YoY. Deteriorating commodity market
and restructuring charges of Industrial machinery
weighed on overall corporate earnings.
(*) Companies included in SMAM’s core research universe
excluding financials. Industrial sector classification is defined
by SMAM.
Point
2
"Recurring Profits Growth Rate and Proportion of Amount Increased
of Major Industrial Sectors"
（FY2016 Forecast, 5.6% earnings growth for 216 companies as a whole ）
Growth
Proportion
Rate
Sector
Growth
Proportion
Rate
Sector
① Industrial elec. equip.
29%
20% ⑥ Industrial machinery
12%
8%
② Trading
20%
16% ⑦ Iron & Steel
45%
8%
14% ⑧ Housing & Property
11%
7%
12% ⑨ Construction
17%
6%
33%
6%
③ Automobile
4%
④ Resources & Fuels
64%
⑤ Telecommunication
5%
9% ⑩ Nonferrous wires
(Note) Earnings growth rate is YoY base. Top 10 sectors in terms of proportion of earnings amount increased YoY.
(Source) SMAM, based on publicly available data of companies.
Downward revision for FY2015
Renewal of record high earnings continues
 Recurring profits for FY2015 are expected to increase
by +7.4% YoY due to gradual improvement by
moderate expansion of the Japanese economy, low
crude oil price and weaker JPY despite negative effect
of commodity price declines. Although it was revised
downward from +14.0% YoY (forecast in December),
recurring profits for FY2015 are expected to renew
the record high for another straight year.
 Downward revision was mainly led by sectors such as
Trading, Resources & Fuels, Iron & Steel and
Industrial electric machinery (restructuring charges
of major heavy electric machinery manufacturer) due
to commodity price declines. In addition, Automobile
was revised downward due to decrease in demand
from ASEAN countries.
（points）
"Recurring Profits of Major Companies"
140
（Forecast）
120
100
102
114
100
84
80
60
108
94
96
74
68
72
60
46
42
40
（FY2007 is indexed as 100）
20
04
06
08
10
12
14
16（FY）
(Note) 1. Data are from FY2004 to FY2016. Data of FY2015 and onward are forecasted by SMAM.
2. Recurring profits of each FY are aggregate of companies whose fiscal year end fall in
between June of current year and May in the following year.
(Source) SMAM, based on publicly available data of companies.
Future Outlook Earnings growth is expected to be 5.6% YoY in FY2016
 Recurring profits for FY2016 are expected to grow by  Background of downward revision was due to change in
+5.6% YoY. Despite a revise downward from +7.3%
foreign exchange assumptions by corporations (from
YoY (forecast in December 2015), the record high will
JPY120 to JPY115) and sluggish demand related to
be
renewed
for
three
consecutive
years.
Profit
machine tools and smartphones. Rise of JPY5 against
■当資料は、情報提供を目的として、三井住友アセットマネジメントが作成したものです。特定の投資信託、生命保険、株式、債券等の売買を推奨･勧誘す
るものではありません。■当資料に基づいて取られた投資行動の結果については、当社は責任を負いません。■当資料の内容は作成基準日現在のもので
growth of Industrial machinery and Trading is
USD1 leads to about a 3% decrease in overall corporate
あり、将来予告なく変更されることがあります。■当資料に市場環境等についてのデータ・分析等が含まれる場合、それらは過去の実績及び将来の予想で
expected
to
contribute
due
to
reaction
of
temporary
earnings. Robust earnings growth can be expected if
あり、今後の市場環境等を保証するものではありません。■当資料は当社が信頼性が高いと判断した情報等に基づき作成しておりますが、その正確性・完
negative factors such as impairment loss and
全性を保証するものではありません。■当資料にインデックス･統計資料等が記載される場合、それらの知的所有権その他の一切の権利は、その発行者お
global economy moderately recovers without significant
よび許諾者に帰属します。■当資料に掲載されている写真がある場合、写真はイメージであり、本文とは関係ない場合があります。
restructuring charges of the previous year.
volatility of the foreign exchange rates.
Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Japan Market Memo
(No.004)
For information only
25 September, 2014
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■当資料は、情報提供を目的として、三井住友アセットマネジメントが作成したものです。特定の投資信託、生命保険、株式、債券等の売買を推奨･勧誘す
るものではありません。■当資料に基づいて取られた投資行動の結果については、当社は責任を負いません。■当資料の内容は作成基準日現在のもので
あり、将来予告なく変更されることがあります。■当資料に市場環境等についてのデータ・分析等が含まれる場合、それらは過去の実績及び将来の予想で
あり、今後の市場環境等を保証するものではありません。■当資料は当社が信頼性が高いと判断した情報等に基づき作成しておりますが、その正確性・完
全性を保証するものではありません。■当資料にインデックス･統計資料等が記載される場合、それらの知的所有権その他の一切の権利は、その発行者お
よび許諾者に帰属します。■当資料に掲載されている写真がある場合、写真はイメージであり、本文とは関係ない場合があります。

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