Current monetary easing to be continued

Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Japan Market Memo
For information only
(No.013)
Today’s
Topic
25 February, 2015
Japanese Monetary Policy (Feb 2015)
Current monetary easing to be continued
Point
1
Monetary Policy remains “Intact”
2% inflation target has been maintained, too
■BOJ held Monetary Policy Meeting (hereafter MPM)
over February 17 and 18 and decided to maintain their
current quantitative & qualitative easing. This aggressive
easing policy continues to increase the monetary base
approximately JPY80 trillion per a year by purchasing
massive JGBs, ETFs and J-REITs.
■ At the January MPM, BOJ revised down FY2015 inflation
forecast to + 1.0% from + 1.7% y-o-y, while raised
slightly upward FY2016 forecast to 2.2% y-o-y from 2.1%
y-o-y. The central bank reasserted their inflation outlook
that prices are likely to be rising moderately with
weakening inflation pressure led by lower crude oil price.
400
2015 End Target JPY356trillion
300
April 2013
Start of "Quantitative & Qualitative Easing"
200
100
October 2014
Expansion of "Quantitative & Qualitative Easing"
0
10/1
Point
2
11/1
Caused by low crude oil price
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
16/1
(Year/Month)
Inflation rate is declining
■Consumer Price Index (hereafter CPI, excluding fresh
food and impact of consumption tax hike) was up
+ 0.5% y-o-y in December 2014, and has been softening
since its peak at + 1.5% y-o-y in April 2014. The slower
growth in the price index was caused by fall in
petroleum goods prices such as gasoline because of
crude oil price plunge.
■ BOJ forecasts the CPI to pick up going forward,
alongside moderate recovery in crude oil price at this
moment although inflation is likely to be contracting
due to plunge in crude oil price for the time being.
BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda showed his confidence
of achieving the inflation target and expressed his view
again, “The prices excluding energy are continuing to
keep rising”.
Future
Outlook
"Monthly Balance of Monetary Base"
(Trillion Yen)
"Consumer Price Index (CPI)"
(Y-o-Y, %）
3
Inflation Target 2％
2
1
0
CPI (Excluding fresh food)
-1
-2
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
(Year/Month）
（Note） Data Period:
1) Monetary Base is from Jan. 2010 to Jan. 2015.
2) CPI is from Oct. 2010 to Dec. 2014. CPI data after Dec. 2014 is
calculated excluding impact of the consumption tax hike.
（Source）SMAM, based on Bloomberg L.P. and the BOJ data.
Current monetary easing to be continued for the time being
■The Oct.-Dec. quarter real GDP growth rate released on ■ The BOJ Governor, Kuroda reasserted that
February 16 gained annualized + 2.2% y-o-y for the first
the economic recovery is ongoing and the inflation
time in three quarters after the negative growth.
target of 2% is highly likely to be achievable some time
This recovery was underpinned by increase in exports
in FY2015 or around under current monetary policy,
due
to
Yen
depreciation.
The
slight
increase
in
personal
therefore expressed his cautious stance to adopt
■当資料は、情報提供を目的として、三井住友アセットマネジメントが作成したものです。特定の投資信託、生命保険、株式、債券等の売買を推奨･勧誘す
るものではありません。■当資料に基づいて取られた投資行動の結果については、当社は責任を負いません。■当資料の内容は作成基準日現在のもので
consumption expenditures helped to raise the growth
additional easing right now. Current monetary policy
あり、将来予告なく変更されることがあります。■当資料に市場環境等についてのデータ・分析等が含まれる場合、それらは過去の実績及び将来の予想で
rate. Japan’s economy is likely to finally be getting rid of
will be maintained as far as there is any material
あり、今後の市場環境等を保証するものではありません。■当資料は当社が信頼性が高いと判断した情報等に基づき作成しておりますが、その正確性・完
the negative impact of the consumption tax hike last
fundamental change such as further decline in crude oil
全性を保証するものではありません。■当資料にインデックス･統計資料等が記載される場合、それらの知的所有権その他の一切の権利は、その発行者お
よび許諾者に帰属します。■当資料に掲載されている写真がある場合、写真はイメージであり、本文とは関係ない場合があります。
April.
price.
Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Japan Market Memo
(No.004)
For information only
25 September, 2014
Disclaimer
Please read this disclaimer carefully.
= This material is for non-Japanese institutional investors only.
= The research and analysis included in this report, and those opinions or judgments as outcomes thereof, are
intended to introduce or demonstrate capabilities and expertise of Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Company,
Ltd. (hereinafter “SMAM”), or to provide information on investment strategies and opportunities. Therefore this
material is not intended to offer or solicit investments, provide investment advice or service, or to be considered as
disclosure documents under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan.
= The expected returns or risks in this report are calculated based upon historical data and/or estimated upon the
economic outlook at present, and should be construed no warrant of future returns and risks.
= Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
= The simulated data or returns in this report besides the fund historical returns do not include/reflect any investment
management fees, transaction costs, or re-balancing costs, etc.
= The investment products or strategies do not guarantee future results nor guarantee the principal of investments.
The investments may suffer losses and the results of investments, including such losses, belong to the client.
= The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding investments.
= The opinions, outlooks and estimates in this report do not guarantee future trends or results. They constitute
SMAM’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice.
= The awards included in this report are based on past achievements and do not guarantee future results.
= The intellectual property and all rights of the benchmarks/indices belong to the publisher and the authorized
entities/individuals.
= This material has been prepared by obtaining data from sources which are believed to be reliable but SMAM can not
and does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy.
= All rights, titles and interests in this material and any content contained herein are the exclusive properties of SMAM,
except as otherwise stated. It is strictly prohibited from using this material for investments, reproducing/copying
this material without SMAM’s authorization, or from disclosing this material to a third party.
Registered Number: Kanto Local Finance Bureau (KINSHO) No.399
Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan and
Type Ⅱ Financial Instruments Firms Association
© Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Company, Limited
■当資料は、情報提供を目的として、三井住友アセットマネジメントが作成したものです。特定の投資信託、生命保険、株式、債券等の売買を推奨･勧誘す
るものではありません。■当資料に基づいて取られた投資行動の結果については、当社は責任を負いません。■当資料の内容は作成基準日現在のもので
あり、将来予告なく変更されることがあります。■当資料に市場環境等についてのデータ・分析等が含まれる場合、それらは過去の実績及び将来の予想で
あり、今後の市場環境等を保証するものではありません。■当資料は当社が信頼性が高いと判断した情報等に基づき作成しておりますが、その正確性・完
全性を保証するものではありません。■当資料にインデックス･統計資料等が記載される場合、それらの知的所有権その他の一切の権利は、その発行者お
よび許諾者に帰属します。■当資料に掲載されている写真がある場合、写真はイメージであり、本文とは関係ない場合があります。

Download Report