Ongoing recovery on solid tone in global economy and supportive

Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Japan Market Memo
For information only
(No.061)
Today’s
Topic
23 January 2017
Japanese Economic Analysis (January 2017)
Ongoing recovery on solid tone in global economy and supportive policy measures
Point
1
Production sees a turnaround and
is expected to increase
 Industrial production index for November rose + 1.5%
MoM. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry revised
its basic assessment to “some recovery”. Export from
Japan to overseas is increasing due to (i) stabilization of
Chinese economy, (ii) recovery of US economy and (iii)
recovery of global IT cycle which contributed to the
recovery of Japanese production.
（Points）
“Industrial Production Index”
110
（Forecast）
105
100
95
90
 According to the Survey of Production Forecast,
industrial production of December 2016 and January
2017 are expected to increase + 2.0% and + 2.2% (both
MoM) respectively. We expect production to continue
growing going forward.
Point
2
Consumer Price Index is falling
Subdued price trend persists if excluding
crude oil price hike factor
14/1
14/7
15/1
15/7
16/1
16/7
17/1
（Year/Month）
(Note) Data period is from January 2014 to January 2017.
December 2016 and beyond is forecast. Industrial
Production Index: 2010 = 100, Seasonally adjusted.
(Source) SMAM, based on Bloomberg L. P. data.
(%)
4.0
“Consumer Price Core Index (YoY)”
2.0
 Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh foods, hereafter
Core) for November 2016 was - 0.4% YoY which was less
than market consensus (- 0.3% YoY) and stayed within
0.0
same negative gap of the previous month. Energy
continued to narrow its negative growth (- 7.9% in
October ⇒ - 6.7% in November) , while other items such ▲ 2.0
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
16/1
as Communications, Education & Recreation, Clothing
（Year/Month
and Footwear saw either slowdown of rise or widening
(Note) Data period is from January 2011 to November 2016.
）
of negative growth. Price trend continues to be subdued
Consumer Price Core Index is Consumer Price Index
except for crude oil price hike factor as Japanese
(excluding fresh food).
(Source) SMAM, based on Bloomberg L. P. data.
corporates’ pricing behavior is still cautious.
Future Outlook
Japan will see a moderate economic recovery going forward, supported by
solid tone in global economy and Japan’s government’s policy measures
 Japanese economic indicators released between the previous year end and the beginning of new year almost
confirmed continuous economic recovery in October - December 2016. Japanese economy is expected to
■当資料は、情報提供を目的として、三井住友アセットマネジメントが作成したものです。特定の投資信託、生命保険、株式、債券等の売買を推奨･勧誘す
continue its recovery with some volatility time to time, as its recovery had started from July - September 2016
るものではありません。■当資料に基づいて取られた投資行動の結果については、当社は責任を負いません。■当資料の内容は作成基準日現在のもので
underpinned by recovery of global economy and economic measures put in place by the Japanese government. As
あり、将来予告なく変更されることがあります。■当資料に市場環境等についてのデータ・分析等が含まれる場合、それらは過去の実績及び将来の予想で
for price, we expect consumer price core index to show higher rise around 1% YoY towards second half of FY2017,
あり、今後の市場環境等を保証するものではありません。■当資料は当社が信頼性が高いと判断した情報等に基づき作成しておりますが、その正確性・完
全性を保証するものではありません。■当資料にインデックス･統計資料等が記載される場合、それらの知的所有権その他の一切の権利は、その発行者お
as Japanese economic growth is likely to surpass its growth potential.
よび許諾者に帰属します。■当資料に掲載されている写真がある場合、写真はイメージであり、本文とは関係ない場合があります。
Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Japan Market Memo
(No.004)
For information only
25 September, 2014
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■当資料は、情報提供を目的として、三井住友アセットマネジメントが作成したものです。特定の投資信託、生命保険、株式、債券等の売買を推奨･勧誘す
るものではありません。■当資料に基づいて取られた投資行動の結果については、当社は責任を負いません。■当資料の内容は作成基準日現在のもので
あり、将来予告なく変更されることがあります。■当資料に市場環境等についてのデータ・分析等が含まれる場合、それらは過去の実績及び将来の予想で
あり、今後の市場環境等を保証するものではありません。■当資料は当社が信頼性が高いと判断した情報等に基づき作成しておりますが、その正確性・完
全性を保証するものではありません。■当資料にインデックス･統計資料等が記載される場合、それらの知的所有権その他の一切の権利は、その発行者お
よび許諾者に帰属します。■当資料に掲載されている写真がある場合、写真はイメージであり、本文とは関係ない場合があります。

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