湘南グローバルアップロード用

環境制約からみた
21世紀の科学文明と生活
国際連合大学・東京大学
安井至
http://www.yasuienv.net
で本資料を配布中です。
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Contents

Introduction
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Transitions in Environment, Japanese Case
Analysis for Transitions in Environment
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What is the Keyword? = Sustainability
Definition of Sustainability
How to Measure Development?
Environmental Kuznets Curve
CO2 Emission
Energy Use
EcoPremium A New Life Style
Conclusions
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Definition of “Sustainability”
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Two Kinds of Definitions
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UN Brundtland Type
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Corporate Social Responsibility Type
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Brundtland Type Definition
"Sustainable Development is
Development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet
their own needs. It is not a fixed state of
harmony, but rather a process of change
in which the exploitation of resources,
the direction of investments, the
orientation of technological development,
and institutional change are made
consistent with future as well as present
needs." (Brundtland Report 1987)
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Green & Sustainability; Different Views
Economic
Aspects
Social
Aspects
Fairness
& Justice
Resource
Consumption
Overcome
Poverty
Case for Japan
Resource
Factor
Human Health
Ecological
Impact
Human Equity
Limitation
of Earth
Eco-System
Factor
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Start Point
Sustainability
Triple Bottom Line
Economic
Aspects
Social
Aspects
Environmental Aspects
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Transition of Society
from Non Sustainable to Sustainable
Economic
Aspects
Social
Aspects
Economic
Aspects
Social
Aspects
Environmental Aspects
Environmental Aspects
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International Framework
for
Sustainable Development
Goals and Targets
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Millennium Development Goals

The Millennium Development Goals are
an ambitious agenda for reducing
poverty and improving lives that world
leaders agreed on at the Millennium
Summit in September 2000. For each
goal one or more targets have been set,
most for 2015, using 1990 as a
benchmark:
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8 Goals in MDG
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1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower
women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other
diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for
development
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18 Targets and 48 Indicators
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 9: Integrate the principles of
sustainable development into country policies
and programmes and reverse the loss of
environmental resources
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25. Proportion of land area covered by forest
26. Land area protected to maintain biological
diversity
27. GDP per unit of energy use (as proxy for
energy efficiency)
28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita)
[Plus two figures of global atmospheric pollution: ozone
depletion and the accumulation of global warming gases]
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How to Measure
Development?
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Economical Development?
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Economy Related Other Indicators?
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GDP and Others
Such as Energy Use per Capita
Human Development?

By UNDP
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Human Development
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"The basic purpose of development is to enlarge
people's choices. In principle, these choices can be
infinite and can change over time. People often value
achievements that do not show up at all, or not
immediately, in income or growth figures: greater
access to knowledge, better nutrition and health
services, more secure livelihoods, security against
crime and physical violence, satisfying leisure hours,
political and cultural freedoms and sense of
participation in community activities. The objective of
development is to create an enabling environment for
people to enjoy long, healthy and creative lives."
 Mahbub ul Haq
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How Can We Measure HD?
What is the human development index
(HDI) developed by UNDP?
The HDI – human development index – is a
summary composite index that measures a
country's average achievements in three
basic aspects of human development:
longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard
of living.

Longevity is measured by life expectancy at birth;
knowledge is measured by a combination of the
adult literacy rate and the combined primary,
secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; and
standard of living by GDP per capita (PPP US$).
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WSSD Plan of Implementation
in Johannesburg 2002
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Poverty eradication
Changing unsustainable patterns of
consumption and production
Protection and managing the natural resource
base of economic and social development
Sustainable development in a globalizing
world
Health and sustainable development
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Changing unsustainable patterns of
consumption and production
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All countries should promote sustainable
consumption and production patterns, with the
developed countries taking the lead……
Encourage and promote the development of a
10 -year framework of programmes…….
Develop production and consumption policies
to improve the products and services provided,
while reducing environmental and health
impacts, using, where appropriate, sciencebased approaches, such as life-cycle analysis…..
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Changing unsustainable patterns of
consumption and production
Enhance corporate environmental and social
responsibility and accountability…….
Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse,
recycling and use of environmentally friendly
alternative materials…….
Promote an integrated approach to policy -making
at the national, regional and local levels for
transport services and systems…Eco-friendly
Cars…
Sound management of chemicals throughout their
life cycle and of hazardous wastes……..
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Transitions in Environment
Japanese Case
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Minamata Disease
Minamata disease is the name given to mercury toxicosis
(poisoning) that developed in people who ate
contaminated seafood taken from Minamata Bay and
adjacent coastal waters. Methyl mercury was dumped into
the sea as an unwanted by-product of acetaldehyde
processing at the Chisso Company Limited industrial plant
in Minamata from 1931 to 1966.
As of 31 March 1993, the official government tally of
confirmed victims was 2,255 (both living and dead) with
2,376 others who are still seeking to be classified as
victims. The number of persons refused certification has
climbed to 12,503. The actual total of victims is
undoubtedly larger than the official figures because an
unknown number of people died from the disease without
certification or chose not to apply for certification.
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Minamata on the Mend
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The Ministry of Environment finally declared
Minamata Bay safe in 1997, after a ¥48.5
billion ($394 million)-effort to dredge or
contain in landfill the mercury accumulated at
the bottom of the bay (1983).
Now, drawing on its experience of suffering
and recovery, Minamata is spreading a
message to developing countries, particularly
in Asia, not to repeat Japan's mistake.
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Dioxin & POPs
Environmental Problems
and Time Constants in
Japan
Air Pollution
EDC Problem
Depletion of Ozone Layer
Water & Sea Pollution
Soil & Sediment Pollution
Resource & Energy Consumption
Global Warming
1970
2000
2050
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Air Pollution NOx
concentration
1970
1980
1990
2000
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Pb
% of Points for Measurement where
concentration exceeded the environmental
standard limits
CN
Cd
As
PCB
Cr
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
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Years of Life Lost by Daily Risks by WHO
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Infant Mortality Rates and Foetal Death Rates in
Japan/Tokyo from 1899 to 1998
200/1000
3/1000
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Risk Ranking for Chemicals in Loss of Life (days)
単位：日
Smoking all
Smoking Lung Cancer
Passive Smoking
Diesel SPM
Passive Smoking LC
Radon
Formaldehyde
Dioxin Cadmium
Arsenic
Toluene
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Emission of Dioxin and Related Chemicals to Environmet
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Change of Dioxin Conc. in Mother Milk
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Transition of Life Expectancy at Birth in Japan
Women
Men
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GDP vs. Life Expectancy
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GDP vs. Life Expectancy
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Analysis for Transitions in
Environment
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Environmental Kuznets Curves
SOx is a typical environmental pollutant
to fit the Kuznets Curve.
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GDP per capita ｖｓ． SOx Concentration
Environmental Kuznets Curve
after Prof. SIMON KUZNETS
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Then how about other emissions and
use of resources ?
(1) Energy Use
(2) CO2
(3) Waste and Material Use
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Costa Rica
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Costa Rica
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Japanese
Target
Costa Rica
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A Scenario for Oil Production
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Newly Found and
Production of Oil
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Long Term Trend of Oil Consumption
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Then how about other emissions and
use of resources ?
(1) Energy Use
(2) CO2
(3) Waste and Material Use
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Scenario by IPCC. B1 is the Target?
Emission
B1
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Increase in Temperature
B1
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Total CO2 Emission(Global)
Now
JAPAN
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
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A Trend Model for Environment Load in Japan
Japanese Model
Now
Value
Environment Load
Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission
Target
1970
Pollution, General
Economical Scale, such as GDP
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各種のプレミアム Premium
ブランドプレミアム Brand Premium
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超小型プレミアム Ultra Small-size Premium
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寿命が長く、修理が利くために価値が高い
手作りプレミアム Hand-made Premium
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使い心地に気を配って価値が高い
長寿命プレミアム Long-Life Premium
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超小型にすることで価値が高い
使いここちプレミアム Comfortable Premium
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同じような製品でもメーカーが違うため価値が高い
手作りのために価値が高い
エコプレミアム Eco-Premium
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製品の環境負荷が低いために価値が高い
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エコプレミアムEco-Premium
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資源・エネルギー生産性の高い商品
Resource Productivity, Energy Productivity
環境汚染は良好にマネージメント
複数プレミアムの組み合わせが必要か
例えば、
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ブランドプレミアム＝手工業的プレミアム
長寿命プレミアム＝寿命の長さで高い価値を
エコプレミアム＝環境負荷の低さで価値を
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結局のところは、５０年間で
In less than 50 years, we must fulfill the goal,
＜エネルギー生産性の向上＞
エネルギー生産性４倍＝技術的効率（２倍）×需要変化（２倍）
Energy Productivity x4 = Technology (x2) x Life Style(x2)
＜資源生産性の向上＞
資源生産性８倍＝２倍
×
２倍 ×
２倍
機能長寿命化需要変化
循環利用
Resource Productivity x8 = Long Life (x2) x Life Style(x2)
x Recycle Tech.etc., (x2)
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An Example
= New Prius

Hybrid Motor Vehicle by TOYOTA
Engine
Power Splitter
Generator
Ni-H Battery
Inverter
Motor
Transmission for Hybrid
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Comparison of CO2 Emission
New Prius and Equivalent
New Prius
Materials
Assemble
Gasoline
Maintenance
Waste
Gasoline
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
tons
Assumptions: 100,000km Driven in Tokyo
Fuel Consumption: 18km/L for Prius, 8km/L for Others
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Energy Efficiency of New Prius
Fuel E Car E
Overall EE in %
Gasoline
Prius 1
Prius 1MC
New Prius
FCHV Now
FCHV F
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水素は普及しない？
Hydrogen Energy : Doubtful
理由
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水素は一次エネルギーではない。Not Primary Energy
二次エネルギーは運搬・貯蔵などの手段。Media to Store.
手段の性能としては、液体燃料に負ける。 Liquid Fuel.
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液体水素でも、ガソリンより水素分子数が少ない
液体燃料のインフラ構築に比較すると、気体のインフラの構
築はコストが非常にかかる。 Infra Structure for H2.
もしも水素に技術的優位性があれば、コストを除外しても進
める可能性はあるが。 No Technological Merit.
環境面の優位性も無さそう。 No Environmental Merit.
結論：水素はアイスランドのみ！
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エコキュートの環境効率
Eco-Kyuto: Hot Water Apparatus
二酸化炭素冷媒を使ったヒートポンプ型給湯機 Heat Pump Type
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洗
濯
乾
燥
機
の
二
酸
化
炭
素
排
出
量
Washer Dryer ＣＯ２ Emission ｋｇ／ｋｇ Cloths
具体例洗濯乾燥機
Water:Wash
Water:Dry
Electricity:Wash
Electricity:Dry
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すべての電気製品には情報を
Environmental Information by House Hold Appriances
Cloth Weight
洗濯量は２．５ｋｇでした。
本日の二酸化炭素排出量は
洗濯時に２２ｇ＝水で１２ｇ＋電気で１０ｇ
乾燥時に５００ｇ＝水で３０ｇ＋電気で４７０ｇ
Today’s CO2 Emission
Wash:22g = Water:12g + Electricity: 10g
Dry: 500g = Water:30g + Electricity: 470g
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エコプレミアム情報の交換
Exchange of Information by Eco-Premium Products
Sustainability
持
続
可
能
性
商品
商品
商品
Products
Information
情報
満足
Satisfaction
消費者
消費者
消費者
消費者
Consumers
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着陸地点を決めた議論を！
We have to make discussion with future perspectives
In the year of 2050
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企業と市民の責任の分担
Sharing Responsibility by Citizens and
Corporations to Change Society
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企業(Corporation)：十分な環境情報を持つ。
Enough Environmental Information
市民社会をリードする役割。
Responsibility to Lead the Society
余りにも先進的だとリスクあり。
Too Advanced, then some Risks
市民(Citizen)：環境情報はメディア経由で不十分。
Not Enough and Distorted Information
そのために迷走する。
Sometimes take Waving Courses
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企業の環境戦略半歩前
Best Strategy for Corporation
= Walk half step ahead
FINAL GOAL
一般社会の動き
Citizens Society
優れた環境対応企業
Advanced Corporations
in Environmental
Management
環境対応の遅れた企業
Backward Corporations
in Environmental Management61
結論 Conclusions
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２１世紀は、地球の限界と人間活動があきらかな交点を
もち始める世紀である。
Competition between Limitation of the Earth and Scale
of Human Activities
いかなる人も、この事実から逃れられない。
Nobody can escape from this condition.
地球に限界があることを認め、それに対処することは、知
識人にとって必須の条件である。
Accept this condition and consider the next action is a
duty for intellectual persons.
 それは未来を読むことは、人のみに許されたことだから。
Only human beings can have future perspectives.

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