Credit Opinion: Pacific Mutual Holding Company
Global Credit Research - 18 Dec 2014
Newport Beach, California, United States
Ratings
Category
Pacific LifeCorp
Rating Outlook
Senior Unsecured
Moody's Rating
STA
Baa1
Pacific Life Insurance Company
Rating Outlook
Insurance Financial Strength
ST Insurance Financial Strength
Surplus Notes
Commercial Paper
STA
A1
P-1
A3 (hyb)
P-1
Pacific Life & Annuity Company
Rating Outlook
Insurance Financial Strength
STA
A1
Pacific Life Funding, LLC
Rating Outlook
Senior Unsecured
STA
A1
Contacts
Analyst
Scott Robinson/New York City
Neil Strauss/New York City
Robert Riegel/New York City
Stefan Kahandaliyanage/New York
City
Phone
1.212.553.1653
Key Indicators
Pacific Mutual Holding Company[1][2]
2013
As Reported (U.S. Dollar Millions)
Total Assets
Shareholders' Equity
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Common Shareholders
Total Revenue
Moody's Adjusted Ratios
High Risk Assets % Shareholders' Equity
Goodwill & Intangibles % Shareholders' Equity
Shareholders' Equity % Total Assets
Return on Capital (1 yr)
Sharpe Ratio of ROC (5 yr avg)
Financial Leverage
Total Leverage
Earnings Coverage (1 yr)
Cash Flow Coverage (1 yr)
2012
2011
2010
2009
129,921 123,697 115,780 115,992 109,954
8,973 9,499 8,285 7,544 6,379
720
460
549
469
434
8,106 6,874 5,862 5,588 5,196
38.0%
50.3%
6.8%
6.3%
678.5%
19.9%
21.7%
5.1x
13.0x
51.5%
49.8%
7.2%
4.7%
83.1%
17.2%
19.7%
3.8x
13.1x
46.1%
55.5%
6.8%
6.1%
90.6%
19.2%
21.9%
6.3x
3.4x
63.4%
60.7%
6.1%
5.7%
NA
20.5%
23.4%
5.5x
12.1x
68.6%
76.1%
5.5%
7.1%
NA
21.1%
24.5%
6.1x
17.0x
[1] Information based on US GAAP financial statements as of Fiscal YE December 31 [2] Certain items may have
been relabeled and/or reclassified for global consistency
Opinion
SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE
Moody's A1 long-term insurance financial strength (IFS) ratings of Pacific Life Insurance Company (Pacific Life)
and its subsidiary, Pacific Life & Annuity Company (PL&A), and the Baa1 senior debt rating of its parent Pacific
LifeCorp, are based on the companies' strong market position in the high end life insurance market, excellent
capitalization, broad product distribution and good profitability. Pacific Life's excellent business profile includes
established market positions in variable and universal life as well as annuities. Pacific Life's P-1 short-term
insurance financial strength rating is based on the company's excellent liquidity, careful liability management and
access to alternative funding sources if necessary.
The company's strengths are somewhat offset by risks arising from the variable annuity (VA) business' sensitivity
to equity market fluctuations, and to a lesser extent, exposure to credit losses in the investment portfolio,
especially in residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) (exposure has been reduced from about $3 billion in
2012 to about $2 billion at September 30, 2014), and commercial mortgage loans.
Aviation Capital Group (ACG), its aircraft leasing subsidiary, has remained consistently profitable through
challenging economic times, but exposes the company to potential pressures within the aircraft leasing business.
The company's life reinsurance business (including retrocession), which is almost pure mortality and longevity
risk, helps Pacific Life diversify its earnings sources. However, somewhat offsetting the benefits of diversification,
the life reinsurance is a slow-growth business that can produce more volatile earnings than other life businesses.
PL&A's A1 IFS rating is based on the commonality of the operations of this subsidiary with its parent, Pacific Life:
shared name, products, management and distribution among other key factors.
Credit Strengths
Pacific Life's credit strengths include:
- Established market positions in variable and universal life as well as annuities
- Broad and balanced independent distribution
- Strong capitalization (although the volatility moderates this strength)
Credit Challenges
Pacific Life's credit challenges include:
- Continuing to successfully grow non-guaranteed VA product lines
- Guarantees on VAs that are challenging to hedge, although mitigated on new products
- Strong competition in core affluent business and professional life insurance markets
Rating Outlook
The outlook for the ratings is stable.
What to Watch For
- Volatility in RBC ratio from Pacific Life's VA products with guarantees
- Continued diversification of product sales
What Could Change the Rating - Up
Factors that could cause Pacific Life's ratings to be upgraded include:
- Reduced capital and earnings sensitivity to capital market movements
- GAAP return on capital > 8%
- Adjusted financial leverage below 20% and earnings coverage consistently above 8x.
What Could Change the Rating - Down
Factors that could cause Pacific Life's ratings to be lowered include:
- NAIC company action level RBC ratio falls below 350% (was 673% company action level as of 12/31/13)
- Adjusted financial leverage exceeds 30%
- GAAP return on capital < 4%
Notching Considerations
The spread between Pacific LifeCorp's senior debt rating and the IFS ratings of Pacific Life is three notches,
consistent with Moody's typical notching spread for U.S. insurance holding company structures. Pacific Life also
has surplus notes outstanding with a rating of A3, which is consistent with Moody's standard practice of notching
life insurer's surplus note ratings two notches below the insurance financial strength rating of the insurer issuing
the surplus note.
DETAILED RATING CONSIDERATIONS
Moody's rates Pacific Life A1 for insurance financial strength, which is in line with the rating indicated by the
Moody's insurance financial strength adjusted rating scorecard.
Insurance Financial Strength Rating
The key factors currently influencing the rating and outlook are:
MARKET POSITION AND BRAND: A - FOCUS ON THE HIGH-END LIFE INSURANCE MARKET
The A score for the company's market position, which is in line with the unadjusted scorecard result, is supported
by Pacific Life's strong, focused position in the high end life insurance market serving the very affluent and
business markets. With the company having a leading market share in individual life insurance (especially indexed
universal life) and a strong market position in annuities, Moody's views Pacific Life's market position and brand as
being very strong. Pacific Life's market position is especially strong in the universal life and variable universal life
insurance segments. Also, Pacific Life is a top 20 U.S. life insurer as measured by assets and one of the largest
organized as a mutual or mutual holding company.
DISTRIBUTION: A - THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTION BREADTH
Pacific Life relies primarily upon a wide variety of third-parties such as independent agents, financial advisors,
banks and registered representatives for its insurance product distribution. As a result, Pacific Life maintains less
direct control over its distribution and could see relatively lower persistency and more volatile sales for its thirdparty sold products than those companies with more control over their distribution systems. However, Pacific Life
also benefits from a strong market breadth in most major channels other than career agents, resulting in an A
score for diversity of distribution. Pacific Life also has long standing relationships with many key distributors, and a
reputation for excellent customer service that benefits the company in the market, increasing its sustainability in
the independent channels.
Overall, Moody's views Pacific Life's distribution as consistent with A-rated insurance companies and we have left
this factor at the unadjusted scorecard result of A.
PRODUCT FOCUS AND DIVERSIFICATION: A - A BALANCED PORTFOLIO IN NEW SALES
Pacific Life has a very diverse set of product offerings in life and annuity markets, including fixed and variable
products, as well as institutionally oriented products. Pacific Life is particularly strong in serving the high net-worth
life insurance market and benefits from very strong persistency on its products. Virtually all of Pacific Life's life
insurance business is of the non-participating variety. Pacific Life benefits from a good balance between fixed and
variable products although until recently VA business had been a larger part of the company's liabilities. Moody's
views Pacific Life's product focus and diversification as consistent with A-rated insurance companies and we
have left this factor at the unadjusted scorecard result of A.
ASSET QUALITY: A - GOOD QUALITY INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
Pacific Life's general account investment portfolio consists primarily of fixed-income securities and commercial
mortgages. As of the end of 2013, Pacific Life's ratio of high risk assets as a percentage of shareholders' equity
was 38%, consistent with a Aa subfactor score. These high risk assets are approximately half invested in below
investment grade debt, with the remainder split among equities, alternative investments and real estate. We expect
the high risk assets to equity ratio to fall slightly to the 36% range by year-end 2014. Goodwill and other intangibles
are equal to 50.3% of shareholders' equity at year-end 2013, consistent with a Baa score. That said, we believe
deferred acquisition costs (DAC), which represents the vast majority of intangibles, to be of higher quality than
goodwill, largely because of the greater likelihood that DAC will eventually be converted into tangible equity, as
profits net of DAC amortization flow through income.
The company's commercial mortgage portfolio has greater exposure to hotels, resorts and golf courses than peers
(total of all three categories is 12% of the mortgages, with golf courses at 3%) and includes constructions loans on
high end apartments, making it atypical--and generally more risky relative to peers--for a life insurer. However,
these portfolios have performed well to date.
We have left the score on this factor to A, unchanged from the unadjusted scorecard result.
CAPITAL ADEQUACY: Aa - STRONG RBC METRICS, BUT HISTORICALLY VOLATILE
Pacific Life has good capital adequacy, as measured by capital as a percentage of total assets of 6.8% as of yearend 2013, which is in line with Moody's expectation for an A-rated company. However, for U.S. firms we consider
the NAIC company action level RBC ratio to be a more reliable measure of a U.S. insurer's capital adequacy.
Pacific Life's NAIC RBC ratio was 673% (company action level) as of year-end 2013, but this metric has been
quite volatile in recent years in response to equity market movements. Based on capital levels as of Q3 2014, we
expect the company's RBC ratio to rise to the 680%-700% range by year-end 2014, driven primarily by continued
statutory net income growth, in turn driven by solid equity market growth's impact on fees.
Pacific Life has substantially expanded its equity hedging program and taken other steps in an effort to better
stabilize its reported statutory capital position even when equity markets have major moves. That said, given that
Pacific Life makes limited use of a captive, its RBC ratio has been volatile. Moody's focuses on the economic
capital needed to support the VA business; however, Pacific Life's ability to stabilize its reported amount of capital
and the RBC ratio, even if equity markets exhibit major movements, will be a major factor in supporting the
company's A1 IFS rating.
We believe that Pacific Life is best positioned in the Aa range on this factor, given its high level of reported capital,
partially offset by its high degree of sensitivity to equity markets. We have consequently raised this factor score to
Aa from the unadjusted scorecard result of A.
PROFITABILITY: A - PROFITABILITY HURT BY VA SENSITIVITY
Moody's considers Pacific Life's level of profitability to be good. However, the company's earnings have been
more volatile than we expect from an A-rated company historically, especially during equity market downturns.
This volatility is primarily due to the Retirement Solutions ("RSD") segment's high degree of equity market
sensitivity, stemming from both changes in the level of reserves required to support VA product guarantees and
fluctuations in product-related fees earned.
Pacific Life has been addressing RSD's sensitivity to equity market fluctuations through several coordinated
efforts including: (1) an expanded hedging program that actively uses derivatives to offset some of the VA block's
inherent equity market sensitivity; (2) increased customer asset diversification requirements and product
redesigns that both reduce its equity market sensitivity; and (3) a heavier emphasis on fixed annuities and
investment only variable annuities, which are not sensitive to equity market movements. Moody's believes that
RSD's earnings will continue to be sensitive to equity market movements, but these changes should serve to
reduce its sensitivity to future market fluctuations over the long run. Furthermore, we note that the company has
been emphasizing growth in other business lines, including life reinsurance, ACG, mutual funds and life insurance.
Because we believe the company's earnings and regulatory capital will exhibit volatility during stressful economic
periods, we have adjusted the score on this factor down to A from the unadjusted scorecard result of Aa.
LIQUIDITY AND ASSET/LIABILITY MANAGEMENT (ALM): A - STABLE LIABILITY PROFILE, BUT VA ADDS
ALM RISK
Moody's believes that Pacific Life has excellent liquidity to meet its near-term policyholder obligations based on the
unadjusted scorecard metric, and this is supported by a stable liability profile (excluding VA guarantees). Pacific
Life's institutional products (IIP) business is basically in runoff at this time. Moody's believes the company has
ample liquidity to manage through a stressful liquidity scenario.
Appropriately managing the risks assumed from a book of VAs containing embedded guarantees is a challenging
task at best and is subject to difficulty in predicting policyholder behavior and market disruptions. We have
consequently lowered Pacific Life's rating on this factor to A from the Aa raw score due to these challenges.
FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY: A - LOW LEVERAGE AND STRONG CASH FLOW COVERAGE
Pacific Life's adjusted financial leverage (we estimate in the 20% range as of year-end 2014) is consistent with Aarated insurers. We expect the company's financial leverage to remain relatively stable going forward, ignoring the
impact of interest rates on AOCI.
Cash flow coverage has been a strength, and we expect cash flow coverage to remain in the Aaa range as of
year-end 2014. Earnings coverage is expected to be in the 4x-5x range as of year-end 2014. As of September 30,
2014, the company held approximately $144 million in cash at the holdco relative to its anticipated annual interest
expense of approximately $90 million (at the holdco) of which $53 million is covered by interest income received
from internal surplus notes issued by Pacific Life.
Given the company is organized in a mutual holding company structure, we believe that raising external equity is
not a realistic alternative for the company. Overall, we believe that Pacific Life is best positioned in the A range for
financial flexibility given the lack of access to equity markets, and so we have adjusted the score down to A from
the Aa unadjusted score.
Liquidity Profile
Pacific Life has a $700 million 4(2) commercial paper program. These unsecured notes rank pari passu with
Pacific Life's other unsubordinated indebtedness. Pacific Life had no commercial paper outstanding as of
September 30, 2014, and did not have any outstanding at any time during the quarter.
Pacific Life's $400 million bank revolving credit facility matures on October 17, 2019 and Pacific LifeCorp's $600
million bank revolving credit facility matures on October 17, 2019. There were no amounts outstanding as of
September 30, 2014, and the facilities contain no material adverse change clauses.
Interest and debt payments at Pacific LifeCorp are serviced by cash available at Pacific LifeCorp and Pacific Life's
statutory dividend capacity ($515 million available in 2014 without requiring special regulatory approval). Pacific
Life paid dividends to Pacific LifeCorp of $200 million during 2013 (none paid through the first nine months of 2014).
Although Moody's gives credit for dividends and loans available from insurance subsidiaries to a holding company,
we recognize that the actions of insurance regulators during a time of stress could create a delay or uncertainty in
accessing such sources.
The company's next debt maturity of $450 million comes due in February 2020.
Rating Factors
Pacific Mutual Holding Company[1][2]
Financial Strength Rating Scorecard
Aaa
Aa
A
Business Profile
Market Position and Brand (15%)
- Relative Market Share Ratio
Distribution (10%)
Baa
Ba
B
Caa Score Adjusted
Score
A
A
A
A
A
A
X
X
X
- Distribution Control
- Diversity of Distribution
Product Focus and Diversification (10%)
Financial Profile
Asset Quality (10%)
Profitability (15%)
A
Aa
Aa
A
Aa
A
Aa
A
Aaa A
A1
Aaa - A
6.0%
678.5%
Liquidity and Asset/Liability Management
(10%)
X
- Liquid Assets % Liquid Liabilities
Financial Flexibility (15%)
Aggregate Profile
A
A
6.8%
- Shareholders' Equity % Total Assets
Operating Environment
Aa
A
50.3%
Capital Adequacy (15%)
- Financial Leverage
- Total Leverage
- Earnings Coverage (5 yr avg)
- Cash Flow Coverage (5 yr avg)
A
38.0%
- High Risk Assets % Shareholders' Equity
- Goodwill & Intangibles % Shareholders'
Equity
- Return on Capital (5 yr avg)
- Sharpe Ratio of ROC (5 yr avg)
A
X
X
- Product Risk
- Product Diversification
19.9%
21.7%
5.4x
11.7x
A1
[1] Information based on US GAAP financial statements as of Fiscal YE December 31 [2] The Scorecard rating is
an important component of the company's published rating, reflecting the stand-alone financial strength before
other considerations (discussed above) are incorporated into the analysis
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