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Electricity Market Review and Outlook
For the week ended January 16, ’15
Looking Ahead
For February 2015, the baseload and on-peak prices are approximately $42/MWh and $52/MWh,
respectively.
For the first quarter of 2015, the baseload and on-peak prices are approximately $35/MWh and $43/
MWh, respectively.
For the 12-month forward strip, the baseload and on-peak prices are approximately $30/MWh and
$36/MWh, respectively.
Average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP)
Daily HOEP - Arithmetic Average
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
01/11/13
Source: IESO
20-Day Moving Average of Daily Ratio of On-Peak HOEP to
Baseload HOEP
Most recent 24 months to Jan. 11, 2015
$/MWh
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
05/11/13
09/11/13
Daily Average
01/11/14
05/11/14
09/11/14
0.0
May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14
01/11/15
Average for most recent 24 months
Sources: Aegent, IESO
Average HOEP ($ / MWh)
Period
Arithmetic
Weighted
May ’03 - Apr ’04 Annual Average
May ’04 - Apr ’05 Annual Average
May ’05 - Apr ’06 Annual Average
May ’06 - Apr ’07 Annual Average
May ’07 - Apr ’08 Annual Average
May ’08 - Apr ’09 Annual Average
Calendar ‘09 Annual Average
Calendar ‘10 Annual Average
Calendar ‘11 Annual Average
Calendar ‘12 Annual Average
Calendar ‘13 Annual Average
Calendar ‘14 Annual Average
48.18
51.24
65.60
47.06
47.41
44.61
29.58
36.23
30.17
22.79
24.97
32.65
50.36
53.04
69.10
49.35
49.92
47.17
31.01
37.49
31.32
23.85
26.30
34.67
April ’14
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January ’15 (to date)
32.31
16.97
27.28
22.49
20.53
14.49
6.18
15.15
20.19
24.87
33.30
17.92
29.77
23.71
22.11
15.54
7.12
16.49
22.43
Arithmetic average for most recent 24
months to Jan. 18, ’15: $28.65/MWh
Average from Jan. 1, ’15 to Jan. 13, ’15:
- $23.81 / MWh (weighted)
- $22.97 / MWh (arithmetic)
Note: Weighted average based on
Ontario’s demand
Source: Independent Electricity System
Operator (IESO).
This report is based on interpretation by Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. of public and non-public data and is provided for informational purposes only. Aegent Energy Advisors
Inc. is not acting as a fiduciary or financial advisor to clients or recipients. The information does not constitute advice, assurance, or guarantee whatsoever as to the outcome
of any course of action.
Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. makes no representation or warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reasonability or completeness of the information,
assumptions or analysis contained in this report and its attachments. Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. accepts no liability in connection therewith, and nothing contained herein
should be considered financial or other advice.
© 2015 Aegent Energy Advisors Inc.
We know how energy works
Market news
- OEB Announces Electricity RPP Variance Settlement Factor for December 2014
The Ontario Energy Board released an updated variance settlement factor on January 16, 2015 to be
used by electricity distributors to calculate a one-time adjustment for consumers who choose to stop
purchasing electricity through the Regulated Price Plan. The latest updated factor is a credit of 0.2876
cents per kilowatt-hour. It is based on the difference between the amount RPP consumers paid for
electricity over the period from January 2014 to December 2014 and the actual amounts paid to
generators to supply that electricity.
This factor is used to calculate the final payment or credit for consumers who: (i) cancel their utility
account and move outside of Ontario; (ii) switch to a retailer; (iii) have an interval meter and elect the
spot market pricing option; or (iv) cease to remain eligible for the RPP.
For more information, please go to http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB/Industry/Media+Room/
Whats+New and click on the item dated January 16, 2015 which contains text reading “Final RPP
Variance Settlement Factor”.
** New item since previous week’s report
About Aegent
Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. provides independent advice and support services to buyers of natural
gas and electricity to help them reduce energy costs, manage energy cost risk, and resolve the complexity
of the energy marketplace. Aegent’s processes for energy procurement and advisory services operate
within a Quality Management System that is registered to ISO 9001:2008. Visit us on the web:
www.aegent.ca
John Voss
Bruce Sharp
Mike Risavy
Peter Chong
President
Director, Electricity
Consultant
Energy Markets Analyst
416-622-9449 x 102
416-622-9449 x 112
416-622-9449 x 111
416-622-9449 x 115
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
This report is based on interpretation by Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. of public and non-public data and is provided for informational purposes only. Aegent Energy Advisors
Inc. is not acting as a fiduciary or financial advisor to clients or recipients. The information does not constitute advice, assurance, or guarantee whatsoever as to the outcome
of any course of action.
Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. makes no representation or warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reasonability or completeness of the information,
assumptions or analysis contained in this report and its attachments. Aegent Energy Advisors Inc. accepts no liability in connection therewith, and nothing contained herein
should be considered financial or other advice.
© 2015 Aegent Energy Advisors Inc.

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