Technical Strategies

BRIEF
Technical
Strategies
fixed
income
watch.
Akshay
Chinchalkar looks at
India’s 10-year government bond, which has bounced off crucial long-term support. Page 3
inside
Technicals
indicators applied. Eoghan Leahy
shows how to use Bloomberg’s backtesting
function for technical indicators applied to
Markit’s PMI data for the euro zone. Page 4
stock watch. Paul Ciana says energy
stocks may be setting up for a seasonal
rally. Page 5
global trendlines. Kevin Depew
analyzes global trend lines. Page 7
04.03.14
www.bloombergbriefs.com
Calls and signals
Brent crude broke the lower arm of a triangle formation that had been in place since
mid-2012, which suggests a possible drop to the $67 per barrel area, United-ICAP technical analyst Walter Zimmermann wrote in a note. Brent crude’s move higher from March
20 support at $105.41 was a “pathetic attempt at a rally,” Zimmermann added.
■■
The U.S. dollar/Indian rupee’s decline may stall at the 59.4525-to-59.4638 area this
week as momentum studies have reached oversold levels, Bloomberg strategist Andrew
Robinson wrote in a note. The target area represents the gap low formed between July
29 and July 30, and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the May to August rally,
Robinson wrote.
■■
The euro/U.S. dollar may surpass this week’s high of 1.3820 as long as prices stay
above the 50-day moving average, Roelof-Jan van den Akker, senior technical strategist
at ING, wrote in a client note. The 50-day moving average helped contain last week’s
bearish impulse, prompting a recovery toward 1.3820, which is within the 1.3810/45 resistance area, van den Akker wrote. Any close below the 50-day moving average, confirmed
by new short-term lows under 1.3705, will likely increase losses toward the end of the
trend channel around 1.3580.
■■
MSCI Emerging Markets Index on Path to Recovery
analysis By Mindaugas Miskinis
The MSCI Emerging Markets index
(MXEF) reached a double bottom in
2008 and 2009 as the first weekly chart
at right illustrates. After that it started an
ascent that lasted until early 2011 when
the bullish trend turned and the index
entered into a multi-year triangle pattern
that remains active to this day.
The bottom of 2011 also coincided with
a longer term Fibonacci retracement line
of 50 percent where support was found.
Currently the weekly index values are
finding support and resistance within
the triangle, and also are fluctuating
between the 23.6 percent and 38.2
percent retracement levels that happen
to be around the psychologically significant price levels of 1,000 and 900. The
weekly value should be observed for
potential breaks of the triangle boundaries, which would suggest which way the
value may move.
The symmetrical triangle pattern suggests that the price should move in the
same direction as the prior trend which
This chart is available on Bloomberg at g bbta 527<GO>.
in this case has been bullish since the
2008/2009 double bottom. Coupled
with a bullish move of the Stochastics
indicator in the panel below (crossing
from oversold into the neutral zone),
the value will potentially test the 1,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 resistance level. If an upper break of
the triangle takes place, then it should
continue ascending.
The second chart on the next page
shows the shorter-term daily move-
continued on next page
04.03.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies
2
msci emerging markets index…
continued from previous page
Bloomberg Brief Technical Strategies
Bloomberg Brief Ted Merz
Executive Editor [email protected]
+1-212-617-2309
Contributing Paul Ciana, CMT
Technicals Editor [email protected]
+1-212-617-8229
Technicals Editor Kevin Depew
[email protected]
+1-212-617-5166
Contributors Brian Barry, CMT
U.S. [email protected]
Greg Bender, CMT
[email protected]
Alex Cole
[email protected]
William Maloney, CMT
[email protected]
This chart Is available on Bloomberg at g bbta 528<GO>.
ments of the index. MXEF fluctuated in an
upwards channel between 2012 and early
2013 before it was broken from above and
rapidly declined until it reached another
low in 2013. These changes in the trend
also coincided with signals in the RSI
indicator in the panel below.
Most recently, the index value has
broken above the upper boundary of a
downwards channel that began in 2013.
This breakout was also confirmed by
a positive signal from the RSI indicator
when it returned from oversold into the
neutral zone.
The current uptrend is very steep and
the RSI is now in the overbought zone,
suggesting that the trend may be unsustainable if it exits back into the neutral
zone. As it is testing the 1000 price level
it should be watched closely for any significant breakout above, which would suggest that the uptrend may continue until it
reaches its next resistance point. If price
returns into the channel while the RSI
moves back into the neutral zone, it would
indicate that the recent sharp uptrend was
simply a correction.
Geoffrey Wakeling,
[email protected]
Latin America Andre Lapponi
[email protected]
Europe Eoghan Leahy, CMT, MSTA
[email protected]
Philip Sexton, MSTA
[email protected]
Oliver Woolf, MSTA
[email protected]
Middle East Akshay Chinchalkar
[email protected]
Mindaugas Miskinis is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in London. He can
be contacted at [email protected]
Sales Contact US: +1-212-617-4050
Numbers EU: +44-203-216-4700
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Business Manager [email protected]
+1-212-617-6975
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+1-212-769-0480
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fixed income watch Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies
3
Analysis By akshay Chinchalkar
GIND10YR Index (India Govt Bond Generic Bid Yield 10 Year)
- 4/3/2014
3
India’s 10-Year Government Bond Yield Bounces Off Crucial Long-Term Support3/18/2009Reversal
The 10-year bond yield in India has spiked
higher again after recent declines as softening inflation raised expectations of a pause
in rate hikes by the Reserve Bank. Technically, the prior decline brought yields to an
area close to major long-term 45 degree
trendline support on the point and figure
chart at right. Additional support for bottoming yields came from a potential Elliott wave
triangle which, if valid, had the potential to
push rates higher. As of April 2, yields have
risen as expected from this support zone,
breaking the prior swing high in the process.
In the point and figure chart at right, the
“box size” has been set to 0.05 (5 basis
points) and the “reversal” is set to three
boxes while the data tracks “high/low”. Columns of Xs (rising prices) and columns of
Os (falling prices) alternate as the market
moves around, with each X and O equal
to 0.05 points.
To reverse from a column of Xs to a
column of Os and vice versa in point and
figure charting, the market has to reverse
by at least three boxes, or in this case
0.15 points (3 x 0.05 = 0.15) from the last
plotted box. For example, to reverse from
a column of Xs to a column of Os, the
market has to fall 0.15 points from the
highest plotted X. Similarly, to move from
a column of Os to a column of Xs, the
market has to rally 0.15 points from the
lowest plotted O. Notice that currently, the
10-year yield is in a column of Os with
the lowest O printed at 8.75.
Looking at the long column of Os at the
bottom left showing the market’s low, notice how a 45 degree support line drawn
from one box underneath that column of
Os is now providing support to the yield.
At the same time, support from the immediately prior column of Os lies at 8.70.
Since the lowest O in the current column
is at 8.75, the market would have had to
rally to 8.90 to generate a column of Xs
and provide rates bulls a boost. As of April
2, this is precisely what has happened.
Similar views can be constructed from
a daily bar chart of the 10-year yield. The
market, since recording a high of 9.473 in
August 2013, has broadly oscillated in the
form of a contracting triangle.
Elliott wave triangles are made up of five
swings. Contracting triangles are con-
GIND10YR Index (India Govt Bond Generic Bid Yield 10 Year)
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These charts are available on Bloomberg at g bbta 525 and 526<GO>.
The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, BLOOMBERG Data and BLOOMBERG Order Management Systems (the “Services”) are owned and distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea (the
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on the Services shall constitute an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates. BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG MARKET, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG TRADEBOOK, BLOOMBERG BONDTRADER, BLOOMBERG
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Bloomberg ®Charts
tinuation patterns. Also, within a regular
contracting triangle, each swing is less
than the length of the swing preceding it.
The current decline is highlighted is the
final swing, wave (e). For the triangle to
be valid as a continuation signal (higher
yields coming), the length of this terminal
swing (e) could not have exceeded that of
the preceding wave, wave (d). This meant
that the low of wave (d) at 8.493 was critical for yield bulls.
Since 8.493 held on the downside and
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 -1
yields rallied, thereby breaking the highest
X from the immediately previous column
of Xs (this was at 8.90), there is confirmation that a break higher is now underway. The bullish count should be further
validated on a print of 9 percent, which
should force the RBI to move higher as
inflation looks to threaten again.
Akshay Chinchalkar is a technical analysis
specialist at Bloomberg LP in Mumbai. He can
be contacted at [email protected]
04.03.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
indicators applied Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies
4
Analysis By eoghan Leahy, cmt, msta
Backtesting Markit’s PMI Data for the Euro Zone
Bloomberg recently entered into a distribution agreement to integrate Markit’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™)
data into the Bloomberg Professional
service. This data can be integrated into
custom technical studies (STDY<GO>)
and also incorporated in the backtesting
function (BT<GO>).
PMI data such as the Markit Eurozone
Manufacturing PMI SA (MPMIEZMA) and
the Markit Eurozone Services PMI SA
(MPMIEZSA) are widely regarded as leading indicators of economic growth. The
tools available on the Bloomberg system
can be used to identify inflection points
when the PMI data crosses above and
below a one-month lag. This is done by
adding the tickers as “Supplemental Data”
in a CS.Lite study built in the Bloomberg
Custom Study Manager (STDY <GO>). A
one month offset can also be created so
that we can compare the current readings
to the previous month’s values.
These inflection points can then be
used as indications or signals for trading
the relevant equity market index. The signals’ validity as market timing indications
for the Eurostoxx 600 (SXXP) can then
be analyzed on the Bloomberg backtesting system (BT<GO>). The CS.Lite
study that was created can be integrated
into the backtest by selecting it from the
list of “User Defined Studies”. If the current PMI data point crosses above the
one-month offset then a long position in
the Eurostoxx 600 is taken. The position
remains in place until a subsequent data
release crosses back below the onemonth offset.
The results for the Markit Eurozone
Manufacturing PMI versus the one-month
offset generated six winning trades and
no losing trades from April 30, 2011 to
March 31, 2014. There was a 24.4 percent
return on equity over the period with a
Sharpe ratio of 1.2 and a max drawdown
of equity of only 8.7 percent. The last exit
long signal was given on March 3, 2014,
with the Eurostoxx 600 trading at 335.82.
A similar test on the Markit Eurozone
Services PMI versus the one-month offset
generates similar results. Over the test
period from March 31, 2011 to April 1,
2014, the Services PMI backtest had five
winning trades and just one losing trade.
The strategy returned 31.2 percent over the
test period with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 and a
max drawdown of 11.2 percent of equity. An
exit long signal was just generated on April
1, with the Eurostoxx 600 trading at 334.98.
There are some caveats, such as the
size of the sample and the bullish trend of
the test period. The performance of both
tests is less than that of a buy and hold
strategy on the underlying index, which
has been in a strong uptrend. Both have
also incurred much lower equity draw-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 downs then a buy and hold strategy. The
100 percent and 83 percent winning ratios
of the two respective tests certainly suggests that PMI does have some predictive
value. Future signals are worth paying
attention to and can be tracked by setting
an alert directly from the strategy on the
BT<GO> home page.
Eoghan Leahy, CMT, MSTA, is a currency and
technical analysis specialist at Bloomberg LP
in London. He can be contacted at
[email protected]
04.03.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
stock watch Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies
5
Analysis By paul Ciana, cmt
Energy Stocks May Be Setting Up for Seasonal Rally
This chart is available on Bloomberg at g bbta 524<GO>.
During much of the first quarter, the
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF
(XLE) performed in line with the S&P 500.
Now it may be poised to outperform the
broader market.
As the second quarter begins, the price
of the XLE has broken out to new highs.
Meanwhile, its relative strength chart,
shown on the middle panel below the
price chart, has broken out of a basing
pattern. Also note the Moving Average
Convergence Divergence (MACDs) of
both have signaled positive moves.
A look at the charts of stocks in the
energy sector suggest Baker Hughes Inc.
(BHI), Halliburton Co. (HAL) and Schlumberger LTD (SLB) are among three attractive leaders in the group as this short-term
shift in sector leadership takes place. Of
those three, Schlumberger has the largest
weighting in the ETF at 7.48 percent. The
largest weighting in the ETF belongs to
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) at 15.96 percent.
Paul Ciana, CMT, is an equity and technical
analysis specialist at Bloomberg LP in New York.
He can be contacted at [email protected]
Bloomberg Charting and Technical Analysis Events
Date
Event
April 7,
15:00 - 16:00
Seminar
April 10,
13:00 - 14:00
Seminar
May 15,
13:30 - 17:30
Seminar
Featuring
Bloomberg Technical Analysis: Tips, Tricks and New Features. Eoghan
Leahy highlights new charting and technical analysis functions on the
Bloomberg terminal.
Backtesting for Commodities: Learn about technical analysis on the
Bloomberg terminal, as well as charting and data visualization specifically for commodities.
Technical Analysis Backtesting and Excecution: Macro Analysis with
Technical Analysis, using Market Breadth and Sentiment indicators,
Trade Idea Generation, Technical Analysis Backtesting and Trade Execution with Bloomberg Tradebook.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Location
Bloomberg, Dubai
office, Dubai, United
Arab Emirates
Bloomberg office,
Geneva, Switzerland
Pan Pacific Hotel,
Vancouver, Canada
Contact/Registration
Eoghan Leahy
[email protected]
Berenice Maquet
[email protected]
Rob Harrison
[email protected]
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04.03.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies
6
TECHNICAL Levels
Price Points
Last Price % Chg (5)
FX
DXY
80.2240
0.14
EUR
1.3773
0.24
JPY
103.9300
-1.68
AUD
0.9235
-0.26
BRL
2.2766
-0.80
Commodities
CL1
99.68
-1.59
NG1
4.38
-4.38
GC1
1283.50
-0.87
SI1
19.83
0.74
Yields
GT2
0.4500
0.96
GT5
1.7861
4.15
GT10
2.7954
4.27
GT30
3.6360
3.09
Indices
INDU
16573.00
1.87
SPX
1890.90
2.07
UKX
6652.91
0.99
NKY
15071.88
3.07
IBOV
51701.05
7.79
Technical Indicators
Fibonacci Ratios
200d SMA
80.8620
1.3524
100.7476
0.9138
2.3047
50d vs 200d
-0.8%
1.6%
1.6%
-1.4%
2.3%
ADX
Range
Range
Range
Trending
21.84
2SD From 60Day Mean
81.3209
79.3439
1.3939
1.3492
104.4019
100.8987
0.9275
0.8699
2.4475
2.2692
RSI 9
61.64
45.40
OB
66.41
36.71
1 Year
21.3%
84.0%
87.0%
29.9%
63.7%
3 Year
63.3%
59.9%
95.4%
24.5%
81.3%
5 Year
51.0%
50.4%
84.4%
52.9%
83.8%
100.05
4.81
1308.48
20.53
100.50
4.02
1297.04
20.82
-0.4%
19.6%
0.9%
-1.4%
Range
Range
Trending
Range
105.29
5.68
1383.48
22.04
92.65
3.78
1210.96
18.85
45.03
45.17
30.91
37.02
52.8%
37.3%
25.4%
16.7%
62.2%
54.5%
15.4%
6.0%
79.8%
46.2%
40.9%
23.9%
0.4183
1.7003
2.6684
3.5111
0.3540
1.5743
2.7114
3.6395
0.3450
1.5077
2.7267
3.7270
2.6%
4.4%
-0.6%
-2.3%
Trending
22.82
Range
Range
Bearish
Bearish
2.8671
3.8001
0.2665
1.4011
2.5984
3.5210
66.35
68.21
62.30
55.83
75.5%
93.7%
82.2%
71.0%
45.2%
69.7%
63.8%
54.0%
15.7%
39.7%
51.2%
53.3%
16191.79
1842.11
6583.09
14520.57
47962.03
16126
1836
6649
14773
47503
15698
1753
6596
14562
50151
2.7%
4.8%
0.8%
1.4%
-5.3%
Range
Range
Trending
Range
Trending
16745.09
1905.79
6908.16
15976.26
Bearish
15607.54
1767.99
6440.83
13907.71
44902.20
68.44
66.70
55.93
65.98
OB
99.3%
99.4%
73.9%
68.0%
58.5%
100.0%
100.0%
90.7%
85.9%
30.4%
89.9%
86.8%
90.6%
78.5%
20.8%
5d High
80.3270
1.3820
104.0700
0.9304
2.2814
5d Low
50d SMA
79.9620
80.2204
1.3705
1.3736
102.0400 102.3626
0.9206
0.9009
2.2470
2.3576
102.24
4.57
1299.40
20.15
98.86
4.22
1277.30
19.62
0.4616
1.7992
2.8081
3.6533
16588.19
1893.17
6680.78
15164.39
51794.21
Updated 8:15 a.m. EST, April 3, 2014. Source: Bloomberg LP
The above table monitors major markets and contains conditions to alert you to look at your charts. The rules are as follows: Last price and %Chg (5) is green/
red if positive/negative. 5dHigh/5dLow is green/red if the 5d high or 5d low occurred during the last 20 days. The 50d SMA and 200d SMA will be green/red if
the 50d SMA is greater/less than the 200d SMA. The 50d vs 200d measures the percent distance of the 50d from the 200d and turns yellow if the percent is between -1% and 1%. ADX will read Trending if it’s greater than 25 and Range if its less than 20. 2SD From 60 Day Mean will be red and read Bearish when price
is greater than the +2SD and will be green and read Bullish when price is less than -2SD. RSI 9 will say OB/OS and turn yellow when RSI 9 is greater than 70
or less than 30. The Fibonacci section will highlight blue if the 1yr, 3yr or 5yr ratios are within +/-1% of 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% levels or between 0-1% of 99-100%.
WHICH SECTORS
& STOCKS HAVE
THE BEST & WORST
MONEY FLOWS NOW?
FIND OUT HERE.
Birinyi Associates, Inc.
Independent Research on
Money Flows & Stock Market
©2013 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. 54811629 0813
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 04.03.14 www.bloombergbriefs.com
Bloomberg Brief | Technical Strategies
7
Global Trend Lines
CURRENCIES
BONDS
90
DXY
US-10
COMMODITIES
3.5
85
WTI Crude
110
3
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
70
Mar-14
Sep-12
1.70
GBP
80
1.5
Mar-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
1
Mar-14
UK-10
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
70
Mar-14
140
Brent
4.0
1.50
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Mar-12
3.5
EURO-10
1.40
Mar-13
Sep-13
2.0
1.20
1.5
1.15
Mar-14
Mar-12
115
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
JPY-10
110
5000
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
0.4
75
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
4500
Mar-14
3250
Stoxx
2750
2250
2.8
1.8
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Mar-12
Sep-12
80000
Copper
Mar-13
Sep-13
NKY
70000
60000
50000
0.6
80
AUD
5500
0.8
85
Mar-14
6500
3.8
1.0
90
Sep-13
60
Mar-14
5.8
1.2
95
Mar-13
7000
FTSE100
4.8
Mar-12
1.4
100
Sep-12
Sep-13
1.0
Sep-12
105
Mar-12
Mar-13
2.5
1.25
JPY
Sep-12
Natural Gas
3.0
1.30
Sep-12
Sep-13
80
1.0
Mar-12
1.35
Mar-12
Mar-13
100
2.0
1.45
EUR
Sep-12
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
Mar-14
6000
3.0
Mar-12
Mar-12
120
1.60
1.40
Mar-14
S&P500
90
2
75
EQUITIES
100
2.5
80
120
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
40000
Mar-14
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
1750
Mar-14
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
Mar-14
5500
Gold
1900
1.1
5.5
1.0
4.5
1600
3.5
1300
AS51
5000
4500
AUD-10
0.9
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
0.8
Mar-14
2.5
Mar-12
2.5
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
7.0
BZ-20
2.3
BRL
Sep-12
6.5
5.5
1.9
5.0
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Mar-13
Sep-13
1000
Mar-12
Mar-14
50
Silver
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Bovespa
3500
Mar-14
72000
62000
30
52000
4.5
4.0
1.5
Sep-12
Sep-12
6.0
2.1
1.7
Mar-12
Mar-12
4000
3.5
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
10
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
42000
Mar-14
Updated 3:00 p.m. EST, July 18, 2012. Source: Bloomberg LP
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The U.S. dollar has neared long-term support while the euro is retesting former resistance, now support.
Global bond yields have almost universally declined to support levels.
Copper has broken down while gold’s recent breakout appears to have failed.
— Kevin Depew, [email protected]
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