A AN UPDA ATE FROM C CLARION N PARTNERS INV VESTMEN NT RESEA ARCH GROUP w www.clarionpa artners.com 3 Ju uly 2014 J JUNE 20114 EMPLOYMENT T REPOR RT HIGHL LIGHTS In June, nonfarm n payrrolls increase ed by 288,00 00 (Chart 1), well above consensus fo orecast and the average monthly jo ob gain in 20112 and 2013. Over O the pastt three month hs, job growtth has averag ged 272,000 per month, a sign that the U.S. econo omy is finally gaining mom mentum after a winter slow wdown from ssevere weather. CHART 1: MONTHLY JOB CH HANGES (000's s) 350 12-Month Avg. = 208 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 J Jul-13 Aug-1 13 Sep-13 O Oct-13 Nov-13 3 Dec-13 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Over the past p month, employment e increased in Professional & Business S Services (+67 7,000), Retail (+40,000), Leisure & Hospitality (+39,000), Health Care & Social Assistance (+34,000), Governmentt (+26,000), Transporta ation & Warehousing (+117,000), Man nufacturing ((+16,000), Te emporary He elp (+10,000), Education (+5,000), Construction n (+6,000), Financial F Serv vices (+17,00 00), Mining & Logging (+4 4,000), and d Information (+9,000) (Chart ( 2). pread across all industries with professsional & busin ness servicess, retail trade,, health care, Job gains were widesp transporta ation and warehousing, and d financial ac ctivities record ding increase es well above e each industrry’s 12-month average. Financial F activ vities - a laggard to date in n this recove ry – significantly rebounded, more than double the 5,000 averaged per mo onth over the e past year. Total T governm ment employm ment climbed d notably by 26,000 jobs, g hiring. h driven maiinly by local government ehold Survey indicated th hat there werre increases iin full-time e mployment ((+407,000) a and the total The House labor force (+81,000). Total nonfa arm employm ment for Aprril and May w was revised upward by 29,000. The ment rate dec clined to 6.1% %, with no mo ovement in th e labor partic cipation rate at a 36-year low of 62.8% unemploym (Chart 3). Over the yea ar, the unemp ployment rate e and the num mber of unem mployed perssons have de eclined by 1.4 espectively. Average A hourrly earnings rrose $0.06 fo or the second consecutive percentage points and 2.1 million, re month to $24.45 $ and th he annual gro owth rate was s 2.0%. 1 Ja an-14 Overall, this is a strong job report. Judging from the pace of h hiring in recen nt months, ec conomic grow wth seems to otal job gains s projected to t exceed 2.5 5 million in 2 2014, above tthe to 2.1 million in 2013. be accelerrating with to Better job growth shou uld continue to boost real estate e fundam mentals going g forward. CHART 2: JUNE J EMPLOY MENT CHANGE BY SELECTE ED INDUSTRY YOY CH HANGE (000) MOM CHAN NGE (000) +2 2,495 +28 88 +56 +2 26 +2 2,439 +26 62 essional & Bus siness Service es Profe +647 +6 67 Leisu ure & Hospitality +393 +3 39 Health Care & Soc cial Assistance e +324 +3 34 ail Reta +317 +4 40 Tem mporary Help +216 +1 10 Cons struction +186 + +6 Tran nsportation & Warehousing +139 +1 17 Manufacturing +130 +1 16 s Financial Services +59 +1 17 Educ cation +54 + +5 Minin ng & Logging +43 + +4 Inforrmation -28 + +9 Total Non nfarm Gove ernment Total Private ABOR FORCE CHANGES C (000 0) CHART 3: LA May 2014 June 2014 2 May 2014 - June 2014 Total Labor Force F 155,613 155,694 81 1 Employed Fulll-Time 145,814 146,221 407 7 Unemployed 9,799 9,474 (325 5) nt Rate Unemploymen 6.3% 6.1% -0.2% % Employed Parrt-Time 26,309 27,424 697 676 Discouraged Tim Wang, Ph.D. D Director & He ead of Investment Research C Clarion Partn ners [email protected] (21 1) Julia Lau umont Associatte Clarion P Partners julia.laum mont@clario onpartners.c com 2 1,115 5 D Disclaimer Th his is not an offfer to sell, or solicitation of offers to buy, securities and this communiication is not m made in connection with any investment fund ds sponsored by b Clarion Partners or any otther investmen nt product. Inv vestments in any real estate private equity fu und can be ma ade only pursuant to such fu und’s subscription documentss and private placement memorandum and after careful co onsideration off the risk factors set forth the erein. Investment in real esta ate entails sign nificant risks an nd is suitable o only for certain investors as partt of an overall diversified d inve estment strateg gy and only forr investors able e to withstand a total loss of investment. Sttatements regarding forecas sts and projec ctions rely on n a number o f economic a nd financial v variables and are inherently y sp peculative. Fo orecasted returrns and markett conditions arre not guarantteed and are ssubject to chan nge without no otice and pastt pe erformance is not n an indicatio on of future res sults. There can be no assura nce that marke et conditions w will perform acc cording to any. Th his material does not constitu ute investment advice and sh hould not be vi ewed as a currrent or past recommendation n to buy or sell an ny securities orr to adopt any investment strategy. Co opyright and database d rights s protection ex xists in this pub blication and it may not be re eproduced, distributed or published by any y pe erson for any purpose p withou ut the prior exp press consent of o Clarion Partn ners. All rights a are reserved. 3
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