Still Re-Engineering the Naval Ship Concept Design Process Alan Brown and John Sajdak 20 February 2014 Overview • • • • • • Original Vision and Motivation Process then Process changes Exploration Survivability!! Way Ahead 2 Concept and Requirements Exploration - Principles • Must Understand relationship between cost, effectiveness and risk before requirements • Essential detail only (getting harder) • Must have quantitative metrics, and not too many • Cost model must be sensitive to producibility • Start with large design space, move to nondominated Drivers for Change • Operational Effectiveness Models • Physics-based / 3D geometry / system architecture to get out of the box • Manning and automation / maintenance and logistics plans • Survivability analysis • Outside-in Meets Inside-out • Decision-making / Visualization / Data • Future engineers 4 Mission Definition Technology Review Design Space Exploration* OEMs, MOPs, MOEs Search Design Space Build Models Effectiveness Model (OMOE) Production Strategy Hull and DH Exploration (Form & Structure) Cost Model Propulsion, Electrical & Auxiliary Exploration Mission Need (COR, ICD) CONOPS NMETL, DRM, OpSits, Capabilities (ROCs) Technologies & Comparative Naval Arch Initial Baseline Design Mission Systems Exploration Arrangements & Architecture Exploration Response Surface Models Synthesis Model Set-Based Integration & Convergence Design Space DVs DOE Variable Screening MOGO Search Design Space Risk Model (OMOR) Manning and Automation Exploration Survivability & Lethality Exploration Concept and Requirements Exploration Requirement Document NonDominated Frontier Improved Concept Baseline Design(s) Concept Baseline Design(s) Selected Technologies Decision Synthesis Model Modules: • Input – DPs and DVs • Hydrostatics (RSMs) • Seakeeping (RSMs) • Combat Systems • Propulsion Systems • Power and Propulsion (RSMs) • Space Available • Electric • Weight • Tankage • Space Required • Feasibility • Cost • Effectiveness • Risk 6 Non-Dominated Designs CTOC Operational Effectiveness Models Exploration Flexibility and Tools 9 Longitudinal Prismatic Control Page10 Stem Rake Rhino/ORCA3D Model 12 Structural Model 13 DDG Compartment Adjacency Network System Architecture 15 Manning Discrete Event Simulation • • • • • Mission Scenarios (from DRM) Compartments (from Compartment List described above) Ship systems and equipment (Design Variables, DVs) Level of automation (Design Variable) Maintenance tasks to be performed by the crew (determined by equipment and maintenance level) • Damage Control! Survivability Analysis ASM Pkill ASM Lethality Launcher and Missile Availability ASM Survivability (AAW) Target Acquisition Terminal Probability of Hit Launcher and Missile Reliability Resistance to EW and Decoys 17 Vital Systems 18 Conclusions and Way Ahead • Overview paper - total ship system design approach • Series of discipline-based explorations followed by ship synthesis and search of broad design space • Importance of early survivability, manning, system architecture and effectiveness analysis • Designer and discipline experts are an integral part of process - not a big black box • Details to follow 19