Muja Transformer Failure Market Update 29 July 2014

Muja Transformer Failure
Market Impact Update
Martin Maticka
Group Manager, Operations and Technology
29 July 2014
Market Update
Review of July
Forecast Update
Next Steps and IMO Contacts
2
Background
•
WPC Muja substation Bus Tie Transformers (BTT) summary:
– Lost N-1 contingency in September 2012 following BTT1 failure
– Running as single contingency since February 2014 following BTT2 failure
•
Cameron Parotte (Western Power) last update to industry 9 July 2014:
– Relocation and commissioning of Merredin transformer by October 2014
– Western Power and System Management working on / investigating other options
• RFI for replacement transformer(s)
• A new transmission connection [which we understand has been successful]
• Dispatch support service
3
132kV Muja Load Area and New Transmission Line
PNJ
APJ
CLP
WGP
New Kemerton Line
NGN
NGS
BDP
BSI
BUH
KEM
WCG
WAPL
MRR
CO
PIC
CAP
WAG
WOR
WCL
MUJ
WSD
KAT
BSN
KOJ
BTN
MR
BNP
MJP
MBR
330kV
220kV
132kV
132kV (new)
66kV
ALB
4
Market Update
Review of July
Forecast Update
Next Steps and IMO Contacts
5
Recent Activity
The IMO and System Management have worked together on:
• using network information to review the potential impact of the
new line and to assist in modelling;
• reviewing effectiveness factor assumptions;
• reviewing MW limits used for Vinalco in forecasting model;
• refining the analysis model; and
• comparing previous forecasts with what actually occurred.
6
Output adjusted for effectiveness factor (MW)
Great Southern Generation
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
Generation adjusted
for effectiveness factor
50
0
Date
Synergy Worsley
Alinta Pinjarra 1
Vinalco Muja 1-4
Tesla Kemerton and Picton
Intermittent Generators
Rest of SWIS
Total Great Southern Regional Load
1-28 July 2014
Source: Diagram by IMO
7
Review of Trading Days 1-26 July 2014
IMO estimate
100
90
80
Average output in Trading Interval (MW)
70
60
$52k
MUJA_G1
MUJA_G4
50
MUJA_G2
354k
$426k
MUJA_G3
SM "most likely" forecast
40
30
20
$871k
10
Total estimate of
actual 1-26 July 2014
constrained payments
$1.71M
0
1-26 July 2014
Source: Diagram by IMO
8
Constrained-On Payments for Trading Days 1-26 July 2014
• Forecast based on System Management dispatch plan = $2.57M
• Forecast based on IMO dispatch estimate = $3.23M
• Estimate based on SCADA data = $1.71M
• For the first 26 Trading Days of July, the estimated constrainedon payments to Vinalco are $1.52M less than the IMO forecast.
• This is because:
– System Management dispatched two Vinalco Muja units instead of
three; and
– Vinalco reduced its bid price from $175/MWh to $111/MWh on 18 July
2014, the day after the repeal of the carbon tax.
9
Market Update
Review of July
Forecast Update
Next Steps and IMO Contacts
10
“Most Likely” Scenario – SM Dispatch Requirements
100
90
80
IMO estimate
60
50
Muja Unit 3
Actual generation
40
Muja Unit 2
Muja Unit 1
30
20
10
1 July – 30 September 2014
30 Sep
23 Sep
16 Sep
9 Sep
2 Sep
26 Aug
19 Aug
12 Aug
5 Aug
29 Jul
22 Jul
15 Jul
8 Jul
0
1 Jul
MW Target
70
Source: Information Provided by Cameron Parotte at System Management
11
“Most Likely” Scenario – Total Additional Costs to Market
$14,000,000
Costs for 27 July onwards
Excludes costs for 1-26 July of $1.71M
Total constrained-on payments to Vinalco
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
Price cap
effective 1 July:
$330/MWh
$8,000,000
$5.56M
$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$4.61M
$2.55M
$2,000,000
$2.12M
$$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
Vinalco bid price
Most likely - SM plan
Most likely - IMO estimate
Source: Diagram by IMO
12
System Management Planning Process
• System Management uses software that models network flows
after a network failure.
• System Management ensures that no single network failure
leads to overload of another piece of equipment – otherwise, this
could lead to a chain reaction.
• Thresholds for the number of Vinalco Facilities needed are based
on the amount of generation needed at Muja to prevent postcontingency overload.
• Effectiveness factor for another Facility is calculated by replacing
Vinalco generation with generation from that Facility.
13
Great Southern Regional Load Forecast
SM dispatches
3 Mujas
500
450
458
424
433
421
418
416
397
412
SM dispatches
2 Mujas
400
SM dispatches
0 Mujas
350
Load (MW)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
28 July
29 July
30 July
31 July
Date
28 July - 2 August 2014
1 August
2 August
Source: Diagram by IMO
14
4500
90
4000
80
3500
70
3000
60
2500
50
2000
Total cost in both cases
$18975
16MW
@
$555/MWh
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
0
Balancing Price ($/MWh)
Cost per Trading Interval ($)
Conceptual Model – Running Vinalco vs Liquid/DSM
27.5MW @ $111/MWh
27.5MW @ $111/MWh
0
Trading Interval
Vinalco
Liquid/DSM
Business Day Balancing Price
Source: Diagram by IMO
15
Conceptual Model – Vinalco Cycling vs Leaving Running
Vinalco not needed
Same total cost
Additional cost of running Vinalco per Trading Interval - always-on
Additional cost of running Vinalco per Trading Interval including start-up - cycling
Vinalco bid price - SM forces always-on
Vinalco bid price - Vinalco forces always-on (recovering losses incurred when in-merit)
Vinalco bid price - cycling (recovering start-up costs)
Source: Diagram by IMO
16
IMO Dispatch Advice 29 July 2014
• Two options:
– Dispatch two Vinalco units continuously
– Dispatch one Vinalco unit continuously and use Tesla Picton and
EnerNOC DSPs at the peaks
• At a Vinalco bid price of $111/MWh, dispatching two Vinalco units
continuously would cost approximately $230k.
• At $555/MWh, dispatching 12MW, 9MW, 4MW, 21MW, 6MW and
0MW of liquid/DSM for 2.5 hours plus one Vinalco unit
continuously would cost approximately $177k.
• The combined Vinalco/liquid/DSM option is approximately $54k
cheaper for the six day forecast period.
17
Market Update
Review of July
Forecast Update
Next Steps and IMO Contacts
18
Next Steps
•
Work with System Management and Vinalco to cycle units efficiently.
•
Identify large DSP loads in region.
•
Work with System Management and Market Customers to reduce load during
periods of peak demand.
•
Refine assumptions used in modelling.
•
IMO and System Management to continue working together to minimise risk and
costs to the market.
•
IMO hosting weekly briefings to the industry:
– Next meeting Tuesday 5 August 2014 at 10am.
19
IMO Contacts
Questions?
Martin Maticka
Group Manager, Operations and Technology
[email protected]
Steve Black
Project Manager
[email protected]
Bryn Garrod
Analyst, Market Development
[email protected]
20

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